Political Trust and Distrust in Switzerland: A Normative Analysis

Abstract: Based on data from a Swiss survey study (N = 769), this research investigated individual‐level determinants of trust in political authorities from a social psychological perspective. The study demonstrates that individuals with a low level of education who feel materially at risk and politically powerlessness expressed the lowest levels of political trust. This relationship was explained with differential endorsement of normative beliefs. A mediation analysis reveals that normative perceptions of Swiss society as being threatened by immorality and growing social inequalities accounted for the effect of perceived material risk on political distrust. The rejection of a duty‐based citizenship norm (voting), in turn, mediated the impact of political powerlessness on distrust. Political orientation was unrelated to political trust. These findings illustrate the cognitive underpinnings of political alienation and suggest that perceived lack of political agency and perceived risk of social declassification are key factors in understanding political distrust.     

Untangling Social and Political Capital in Latin American Democracies

Robert Putnam extolled the virtue of social capital by arguing that social networks, civil society, and trust contribute to democracy. Subsequent research, however, identified a weakness in the social capital “model” in its underspecification of the mechanisms by which social capital affects political systems. This article proposes the concept of political capital as a likely product of social capital that links civil society participants to the political system. The article tests this two‐stage model of social capital and political capital and their effects on democratization using survey data from eight Latin American nations. Results find that civil society engagement in 2004 affected political capital variables, which, in turn, had positive effects on system‐level democracy measures in 2010. The article thus shows that political capital serves as an intervening variable between social capital and democracy and democratization.     

越南的人际信任价值观与国家政制

人际信任价值观被越来越多学者认为与国家政制有着密切的关系,特别是社会资本等理论,甚至认为人际信任与现代民主社会政制是正相关关系,是影响现代民主社会政制的重要变量之一。然而,现实的数据表明,虽然越南的国家政制民主指数并不高,但是,越南的人际信任价值观却非常高。为此,本文试图以越南为例,对人际信任价值观做出具体的分析,指出人际信任价值观不应该一概而论,其中的熟人信任和陌生人信任会对国家政制产生不同的影响,因而要对人际信任价值观与国家政制之间的关系做出更为细致的界定,才能提高理论的适用性。     

从对俄政策调整看日本周边外交的困境

日俄关系在日本的周边外交中占有重要位置,近年来日本试图通过调整对俄政策彰显外交的自主性,改善周边外交状况,推出了一些新的政策措施。首先,日本建议绕开领土问题,扩大与俄罗斯的经济合作,为两国关系的彻底改善,也为最终解决领土问题奠定基础。其次,提出日俄在争议领土从事"共同经济活动"的建议,旨在与俄罗斯在争议领土进行"共同"开发,获得俄罗斯默认日本对争议领土具有主权权利,以便打开日俄关系的大门。第三,日本试图通过调整对俄政策改善周边关系,维护日本在周边外交中的有利地位。但是,日本的对俄政策依然受到内外因素限制,俄罗斯不会轻易在领土问题上让步,日本国内舆论也不可能支持政府在领土问题上让步,日俄之间也不可能在领土问题上达成共识,日俄之间的经济合作也很难脱离政治环境而有所扩大,特别是在日美同盟的框架下,日俄合作具有局限性,日本的周边外交仍然陷于困境之中。     

俄罗斯移民政策弊端解析

俄罗斯还不是真正意义上的移民国家,其接收各类外来移民(定居移民、劳务移民和留学移民等)的历史并不长。从国民性格角度看,俄罗斯社会缺乏安全感,在制定移民政策时,总是将安全考量放在第一位。俄移民领域的管理因而具有浓重的“强力”色彩,“经济”和“融合”的成分则相对不足。当前俄移民政策领域存在诸多弊端,如融合政策缺失,腐败问题严重,统计工作不到位,移民政策缺乏系统性和连贯性等。为构建具有吸引力的移民政策,俄罗斯学界提出很多建设性主张,如必须为引进和利用外国劳动力制定简单透明的规则和程序;必须使移民政策的实施由单独的联邦非强力部门主管;必须要有保障移民融合的基础设施,维护移民的权利,反对影子就业和社会隔离;公开承认移民对于国家经济的作用,对居民解释实行移民政策的各种动机,创造出移民和社会可以有效协作的氛围。这些主张能否得以落实,还有待进一步观察。     

俄罗斯数字化转型与网络公共领域的生成

数字技术的快速发展在全球范围内掀起了一场剧烈的变革,深刻地影响着经济、政治、社会、文化等各个领域,这一进程被称为数字化转型。俄罗斯积极应对数字化浪潮,将数字化转型作为国家的发展战略,构建数字化转型的基础设施,推动数字经济发展。而在政治和社会领域,数字化转型的基础设施在网络空间促进了网络公共领域的生成,对政治参与和社会交往的方式、路径产生重大影响,推动了民主政治、市民社会、社会自组织的发展。与此同时,数字化转型也带来诸多风险,包括网络空间的无政府主义以及外部势力和政治反对派对现政权的威胁。在俄罗斯,网络空间建立秩序和规避风险的需求推动国家权力进入网络空间。数字化转型带来的机遇和挑战,是包括中国在内的世界各国和地区面临的共同性议题,俄罗斯的数字化转型无疑为我们提供了一个生动的案例。     

East German political attitudes: Socialist legacies v. situational factors a false antithesis

This paper introduces the two main competing approaches that attempt to explain east German political attitudes in post‐unification Germany, the ‘situational thesis’ and the ‘socialisation thesis’. Furthermore, the paper suggests that these ‘either/or’ approaches are in fact inseparable and only make sense when taken together. Political attitudes in east Germany are influenced by the past, the recent past and the present. The result of both the socialisation process in the GDR and the traumatic transformation process following unification is weak civic participation and a lack of trust in formal institutions. Without trust and without a vibrant civil society, economic performance will remain low.     

大国关系及美国大选对全球局势的影响:俄罗斯智库与媒体看法

俄罗斯智库与媒体肯定当前世界秩序处于重大变革时期,特朗普外交政策以及新冠肺炎疫情都给世界带来了巨大改变,同时俄罗斯自身还面临着经济社会发展和周边国家关系等问题,需要以“新思维”来看待和解决。不过,俄罗斯官方不完全认可“新冷战”说法。俄罗斯智库与媒体看到,至少在中短期内,中美矛盾将是世界主要矛盾,俄罗斯可以利用中美竞争谋求发展。如果面临两极格局必须做出选择,对俄罗斯而言更优选择是与中国结盟。从美国民主党对俄罗斯的传统政策以及拜登对普京及俄罗斯的态度看,美国大选结果对俄罗斯不是很有利,但无论特朗普当选还是拜登当选,美国外交政策的总体方向都不会有原则性改变。对于世界格局,俄罗斯智库判断有多种发展趋向,俄力主多极世界,并将努力推动这一局面的形成。     

俄罗斯电子司法研究

俄罗斯电子司法的理论基础已经成熟。电子司法不同于法院信息化,法院信息化是电子司法的前置阶段,电子司法有其独特的内涵。电子司法是电子国家的组成部分,是民主的实现方式之一,在透明度、便捷性、公开性等方面有独特的功能。俄罗斯电子司法的法律渊源分为3种:国家战略规划、法律、司法解释等。其中,国家战略规划是核心,对电子司法的发展起到了统筹和引领作用,法律和司法解释等则为电子司法实践提供具体的规则支撑。仲裁法院的电子司法一直走在前列,其以“我的仲裁”系统为中心的制度建设已经相对完善,普通法院也已取得了不菲的成就,目前俄罗斯的电子司法整体上已经达到了比较高的水平。但是,俄罗斯发展电子司法存在着不平等加剧、立法不足、技术带来新问题、物质保障缺乏等问题。俄罗斯各界就电子司法的问题提出了不同的解决方案,新冠肺炎疫情加深了俄罗斯民众对电子司法的认同,俄罗斯电子司法的前景可期。     

商业理念还是地缘政治?——欧美在欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖上的分歧根源及其影响

俄欧天然气关系是跨大西洋伙伴关系中极具争议的议题。欧洲对俄天然气的商业理念之核心,是通过制度设计约束俄罗斯行为的不确定性,同时通过器物层面的天然气基础设施建设和进口多元化,降低俄罗斯中断天然气供给的潜在威胁,最终使俄罗斯成为安全可靠的天然气供给来源。在有关俄欧天然气关系的地缘政治思维上,美国已不仅仅着眼于俄天然气是否会对欧洲能源安全构成威胁,而是更多地将俄天然气视为助长其对外行为能力的重要工具加以限制。随着欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖增强与美国经济制裁力度加大,美欧俄面临经济制裁与国家治理的困境。这一困境可能导致跨大西洋伙伴关系的裂痕加深。欧盟能否通过地缘政治转向应对不断加剧的天然气地缘竞争,取决于其将经济力量变为政治意图的现实可能与效果。     

Crimea and the quest for energy and military hegemony in the Black Sea region: governance gap in a contested geostrategic zone

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its destabilization of Eastern Ukraine have radically altered the European security order, with the Black Sea region becoming an acutely contested geostrategic zone. Russia’s strategic interests in the Black Sea region, especially in terms of energy and military presence, collide with those of Ukraine, Turkey, the European Union and the United States, among others, and expose the governance gap left by the existing conventions and institutions in dealing with the region. It is argued that Russia’s move to annex Crimea was a strategic decision made irrespective of the destructive effect on the post-Cold War order. Furthermore, until a new normal has been accepted by the main players, there is no hope of revising the existing conventions and institutions pertaining to the basin.     

A Personal Eulogy

Two specialists on Russian society and politics analyze how Russians view human rights and the conflict in Chechnya, as well as factors shaping views on these issues within Russia, based on a survey conducted in October 2001. The authors discuss how their results diverge from the findings of other studies of Russian public opinion on issues relating to democracy, consider several explanations for the patterns they observe, and propose some appropriate policy measures.     

俄罗斯对叙利亚政策中的东正教因素

俄罗斯在叙利亚乱局中的表现,近期再次成为国际热点。自2011年介入不断升级的叙利亚危机以来,俄罗斯目前已经成为主导叙政治进程的主要外部力量。在俄罗斯此次应对叙利亚危机的外交中,东正教因素起到了重要作用。早在帝国时期,俄国就持续介入叙利亚事务。俄罗斯与叙利亚自古以来的东正教文化交往,影响着沙俄对安提阿教会和叙利亚东正教徒的情感,成为沙俄加入中东大国角逐的突破口。此次介入叙利亚危机,是历史的延续。俄罗斯东正教会领导人的公开发言、其附属机构在国际组织对叙基督徒问题的宣传以及提供人道援助,起到了公共外交的效果,一定程度上使俄罗斯的介入和军事行动合法化,获得了俄罗斯国内外民众的理解与支持。东正教因素的上述多重影响,是俄罗斯介入此次叙利亚危机、并成功实现其外交策略和目标的重要因素之一。     

Trust: Why and How Historians Should Study It

Recent scholarship has examined the decline of trust between citizens and the elected representatives, which is seemingly a hallmark of contemporary Western democracies. But the problem is not new. This study draws on newspaper accounts to trace the accumulation and erosion of trust in the Scullin federal Labor government, during its early months. Elected on 12 October 1929, James Scullin's government was expected to resolve the long‐running New South Wales’ miners’ strike; his deputy, E.G. Theodore, promised Labor would return the miners to work on pre‐stoppage conditions. The promise was undeliverable. The lockout dragged on through Scullin's first months in office, with the miners refusing to work on reduced wages and the government unable to deliver on Theodore's pledge. By the end of January 1930, the government's trust relations with its core constituency had unraveled. This case study illustrates how trust is made and unmade through complex relations between individuals, and between individuals and institutions.     

Fearing the Ghosts of State Officialdom Past? Russia's Archives as a Tool for Constructing Historical Memories of Its Persia Policy Practices

The overarching task of this article is to directly present the main crucial venues – a prototype road map of Russia's study of Persia in the context of foreign policy – to the students of Russia and its relations with Persia, as well as, more specifically, to researchers of Russia's late Imperial and early Soviet policy towards Middle East and Oriental studies therein. Simultaneously, taking into consideration the equivocal and quite often controversial nature of conducting archival research in Russia, it is worth knowing that a scholarly activity, seemingly conventional and rather straightforward in the West, can turn into an adventurous quest in present-day Russia, hampered by various factors. So the article also touches upon the current condition of the archival industry in present-day Russia, with the emphasis on the traditionally most burning issue in this field, namely the unjustifiably excessive secrecy, underpinned by the discourse of protecting Russian state interests, which can turn out to be an unexpected obstacle to research into a period even dating back a hundred years.     

The changing position of Japanese women

In this article, Sumiko Iwao, Chair of the Japanese government's Council for Gender Equality and Professor at the Musashi Institute of Technology, Tokyo, surveys the current status of change among Japanese women and discusses the measures that need to be taken in order to achieve a gender‐neutral society. For Japan today, says Iwao, the task is to form a society where men and women can lead enjoyable lives in which there is a balance between the demands of home and work. In order for this to happen, there is an urgent need to build a gender‐neutral society to enable men and women to help each other in managing their housework, raising children, and having careers. Creating such a society promises an environment where all people, regardless of gender, can lead richer lives.     

Politically Alienated Through Low‐Wage Work? Evidence from Panel Data

Does low‐wage work lead to political alienation? Even though low‐wage sectors have grown in the advanced industrialized world, empirical evidence so far is sparse. This paper uses household panel data to investigate the effect of low‐wage work spells on political alienation. We argue that repeated low‐wage work spells lead to preference divergence between a low‐income and the median‐income earner, leading to withdrawal from democratic politics among low‐wage earners. Using Swiss household panel data and fixed‐effects regressions, we show that the accumulation of low‐wage work spells decreases systemic trust. In a second step, we demonstrate that an interaction of eroding systemic trust with low‐wage work is associated with increased individual abstention probabilities. These results highlight the threat of a systematic under‐representation of low‐wage workers in the political sphere.     

Negotiating state and society: the normative informal economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus

ABSTRACT

This special issue introduces new research on informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The research presented here was conducted in Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Beijing, Guangzhou, Yiwu and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China. The following eight articles illustrate how informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus provided spaces for people across the region to negotiate state and society in the last three decades; the articles also suggest that informality should be seen as constitutive of a normative order for polities in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Informal markets and trade in Central Asia rest on three factors: the inability of the state to measure commercial transactions; markets and trade becoming places from which citizens built personalized networks that required individualized networking and oral agreements based on social relations, particularly trust; and markets being embedded within states in which clientelism frequently thrives.     

The Future Israeli-Palestinian Relationship

In this concept paper, the Joint Working Group on Israeli‐Palestinian Relations‐a group of influential Palestinians and Israelis that has been meeting periodically since 1994 to discuss final‐status issues in the Israeli‐Palestinian negotiations‐explores the future relationship between the two societies after the signing of a peace agreement. The paper considers a relationship based on total separation between the two societies and states as neither realistic nor desirable. Instead, it envisages a future relationship based on mutually beneficial cooperation in many spheres, conducive to stable peace, sustainable development, and ultimate reconciliation. The basis for such a relationship must be laid in the process and outcome of the final‐status negotiations and in the patterns of cooperation established on the ground. Efforts at cooperation and reconciliation cannot be pursued apart from their political context. The paper argues that the only feasible political arrangement on which a cooperative relationship can be built is a two‐state solution, establishing a genuinely independent Palestinian state alongside of Israel. The resolution of final‐status issues must be consistent with the sovereignty, viability, and security of both states. The paper then proceeds to describe several models for the relationship between the two states and societies. It advocates a model of close cooperation, but proposes that this relationship be built in stages. The scope and speed of expanding and institutionalizing cooperative activities must be determined by experience‐by the extent to which such activities meet the needs of both parties, enhance mutual trust, and reduce inequalities between the parties. Finally, the paper discusses three avenues for promoting a cooperative relationship based on equality, reciprocal benefit, and mutual trust and respect: the development of functional ties and civil‐society institutions across national borders; programs directed toward attitude change and stereotype reduction; and efforts to close the economic and political gap between the two societies.     

Putin and the Public Chamber

In 2004, Putin created a Public Chamber to enhance state-society dialogue and civilian oversight of the state system. Drawing on interviews with individuals active in Russian civil society or the foreign donor community, this article investigates the Public Chamber's role in legitimating Putin's regime. It examines the vision of state and civil society in the doctrine of "sovereign democracy"; Kremlin strategies for enforcing the narrow parameters this vision gives the public sphere; the model of civil society the Chamber provides, and its actual workings. The Public Chamber's ability to legitimate the regime is considered in the context of civil society's status in Russia.