The effectiveness of prison for reducing drug offender recidivism: a regression discontinuity analysis

Objectives

An enduring legacy of the 1980s “war on drugs” is the increased use of imprisonment for drug offenders. Advocates anticipated, in part, that prison is more effective than community sanctions in reducing recidivism. Despite the contribution of drug offender incarceration to prison growth nationally, and debates about whether this approach should be curtailed, only limited rigorous research exists that evaluates the effect of imprisonment on drug offender recidivism. To address this gap, this paper uses sentencing and recidivism data from a cohort of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses in Florida to examine the effect of imprisonment—as compared to community sanctions—on recidivism.

Methods

Regression discontinuity analyses are used. These minimize potential selection bias by exogenously assigning cases to conditions based on a rating variable and a cut-off score.

Results

Results indicate that prison has no effect on drug offenders’ rates of reconviction. This finding holds across a range of offender subgroups (racial and ethnic, gender, age, and prior criminal justice system involvement).

Conclusions

Imprisoning individuals convicted of marginally serious drug offenses—that is, those close to a cut-off score for being sent to prison—did not reduce subsequent offending. This finding suggests that curtailing the use of imprisonment for such individuals will not appreciably affect future criminal activity and may have the benefit of reducing correctional system costs.

     

Gendered Imprisonment in Japan: An Examination of Imprisonment for Stimulant Drug Offenses

Japan is well known not only as a society with low crime rates but also for using incarceration sparingly, sending few convicted offenders to prison. Yet, certain crimes, such as drug offenses, receive little leniency in the Japanese criminal justice system. Johnson (1996b) found empirical support for both chivalry and an ‘'evil woman'’ effect in the system's treatment of female drug offenders. This paper reexamines and extends the core issues in Johnson's (1996b) exploration of women's imprisonment in Japan. It traces the patterns in female incarceration where data are available from the postwar period until 2004. It specifically examines the incidences of incarceration of women for stimulant drug offenses and identifies key correlates on the macro‐level associated with changes in imprisonment practices.     

THE EFFECT OF IMPRISONMENT ON RECIDIVISM RATES OF FELONY OFFENDERS: A FOCUS ON DRUG OFFENDERS*

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the deterrent effect of imprisonment. Using data on offenders convicted of felonies in 1993 in Jackson County (Kansas City), Missouri, we compare recidivism rates for offenders sentenced to prison with those for offenders placed on probation. We find no evidence that imprisonment reduces the likelihood of recidivism. Instead, we find compelling evidence that offenders who are sentenced to prison have higher rates of recidivism and recidivate more quickly than do offenders placed on probation. We also find persuasive evidence that imprisonment has a more pronounced criminogenic effect on drug offenders than on other types of offenders.     

Sentencer and offender factors as sources of discrimination in magistrates' penalties for drinking drivers

This study examined the contributions of sentencer and case (legal and extralegal) factors to magistrates' sentences for 678 drink-drivers at 2 courts. Qualitative codings of magistrates' sentencing orientations were incorporated with case factors in a multivariate statistical model of differences in fines and disqualifications. Discriminations in penalties were related to offenders' legally relevant prior offenses and blood alcohol concentrations, and extralegal variables of offender age, gender and employment status. Men were treated more harshly than women, and young offenders more harshly than all other offenders except those over 56 years. Unemployed offenders were fined less, but disqualified for longer than offenders in the workforce. Magistrates' orientations and court interacted with offense categories to produce further differences related to blood alcohol concentration and recidivism. Sentencers responded to offender characteristics but also relied on their own mental images of stereotypic drink-drivers and their individualized sentencing orientations to exercise their discretionary powers. Results are discussed in relation to issues of warranted or justifiable discriminations and the just distribution of penalties.     

The Incapacitation Effect of First-Time Imprisonment: A Matched Samples Comparison

Objectives

The logic of incapacitation is the prevention of crime via the forced removal of known offenders from the community. The challenge is to provide a plausible estimate of how many crimes an incarcerated individual would have committed, were s/he free in the community rather than confined in prison. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the incapacitation effect of first-time imprisonment from a sample of convicted offenders.

Methods

The data are official criminal records of all individuals convicted in The Netherlands in 1997. Two different analytical strategies are used to estimate an incapacitation effect. First, the offending rate of the imprisoned individuals prior to their confinement in 1997 provides a “within-person counterfactual”. Second, imprisoned offenders are paired with comparable non-imprisoned offenders using the method of propensity score matching in order to estimate a “between-person counterfactual”. Incapacitation estimates are provided separately for juvenile imprisonment (ages 12–17) as well as adult imprisonment (ages 18–50), and for male and female offenders.

Results

The best estimate is that 1 year of incarceration prevents between 0.17 and 0.21 convictions per year. The use of additional data sources indicates that this corresponds to between roughly 2.0 and 2.5 criminal offenses recorded by the police.

Conclusions

The current results suggest that, insofar as imprisonment is used with the primary goal of reducing crime through incapacitation, a general increase in the use of incarceration as the sanction of choice is not likely to yield major crime control benefits.     

Risk assessment in offenders with mental disorders: relative efficacy of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables

Following the meta-analysis by Bonta, Law, and Hanson, (1998) this study examined the ability of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables to predict reoffending in offenders in the United Kingdom who had mental disorders. The efficacy of each variable in predicting rate of general reoffending and violent reoffending was investigated. Age on admission, number of days hospitalized, and number of previous offenses were the most effective variables in predicting re-offending, with number of previous offenses being the strongest predictor. Clinical diagnosis was not predictive of reoffending when the variance attributable to these other predictors was controlled for. None of the variables were able to discriminate between general offenders and violent offenders indicating that the same variables predict both types of reoffending. The results showed that reconviction in offenders with mental disorders can be predicted using the same criminogenic variables that are predictive in offenders without mental disorders.     

The use of pornography during the commission of sexual offenses

The goal of this study was to examine the use of pornographic materials by sex offenders during the commission of their crimes. A sample of 561 sex offenders was examined. There were 181 offenders against children, 144 offenders against adults, 223 incest offenders, 8 exhibitionists, and 5 miscellaneous cases. All but four cases were men. A total of 96 (17%) offenders had used pornography at the time of their offenses. More offenders against children than against adults used pornography in the offenses. Of the users, 55% showed pornographic materials to their victims and 36% took pictures, mostly of child victims. Nine cases were involved in the distribution of pornography. Results showed that pornography plays only a minor role in the commission of sexual offenses, however the current findings raise a major concern that pornography use in the commission of sexual crimes primarily involved child victims.     

An investigation into the differentiating characteristics between car key burglars and regular burglars

Car key burglary has recently become the focus of empirical investigation as offenders, no longer able to steal vehicles without first obtaining their keys, resort to "burgling" target properties. Research surrounding the modus operandi of these offenses is beginning to emerge; however, little attention has been paid to investigating the characteristics of car key burglary offenders. Challenging the assumption that car key burglary offenses are perpetrated by regular burglars, this study aims to differentiate between offenders. Logistic regression analysis of 110 car key and 110 regular burglary offenders revealed that car key burglars are more likely to have previous vehicle theft convictions and are also more likely to be detected on information supplied to the police than regular burglars. Regular burglars are more likely to have previous shoplifting convictions. It was concluded that car key burglars are a distinct sample of offenders and the implications of these findings are discussed.     

Incorporating Co-offending in Sentencing Models: An Analysis of Fines Imposed on Antitrust Offenders

Analyses of sentencing (and other criminal justice processes such as the decision to prosecute, plea bargaining, and contact with the police) often use the isolated individual as the unit of analysis. However, the criminal justice system often processes either offenses or court cases rather than persons. If court cases always involved one individual, this would have little impact. However, offenses involving co-offending—two or more persons acting together—comprise a substantial proportion of criminal activity (Reiss, 1980, 1986). Depending on the prevalence of co-offending, it may be very likely that two or more individuals involved in the same case will be selected as members of the same sample of criminal justice or criminological data. Unless it can be shown that both the individual-level variables of co-offenders and their error terms are mutually independent, analyses based on methods such as ordinary least-squares multiple regression would violate the underlying assumptions of such models. However, alternatives to linear models assuming either type of independence are available. Among the most useful of these are mixed models, specifically those assuming compound symmetry. This is illustrated with an analysis of fines imposed on criminally convicted antitrust offenders. These models may yield results which are substantially different than those from models which ignore co-offending. In a model of fines imposed on antitrust offenders, models which ignore co-offending generally overstate both estimates and statistical significance of offense-level variables and understate those of offender-level variables.     

When is violence planned?

We examine what types of violent offenses tend to be planned using self-report data from a nationally representative sample of state and federal inmates. We find mixed support for the idea that predatory offenses are more likely to be planned than dispute-related offenses. As expected, robbery offenders are much more likely to report that they planned their crime ahead of time than homicide and physical assault offenders. However, sexual assault offenders are no more likely to report planning than homicide offenders. We also find mixed support for the idea that domestic violence-the supposed crime of passion-is less likely to be planned than violent offenses involving strangers. Finally, we find substantial demographic variation depending on type of crime. Robberies involving offenders of lower socioeconomic status and homicides and assaults involving African American offenders and victims are less likely to involve planning.     

GENDER BIAS IN THE DISPOSITION OF JUVENILE COURT REFERRALS: THE EFFECTS OF TIME AND LOCATION*

Theory based on sex role traditionalism predicts a more punishing decision for female than for male offenders, while theory based on chivalry (paternalism) predicts greater leniency by the courts for female offenders. This paper tests these two models using a large sample (36,680) of juvenile court referrals in metropolitan, urban, and rural locations spanning a nine-year period. Nonparametric analysis of covariance is used to control for differences in offense, previous contact with the court system, and other background variables. Evidence of gender bias in dispositions was found. The patterns of bias across time, location, offense committed, and previous referral to the court system supports the persistence of chivalry and a decline in sex role traditionalism in court decisions. Greater punishment for girls than boys was found only for repeat offenders committing more serious offenses. Even in those cases, girls were more likely to be taken out of the home environment by the courts through a custody transfer while boys were more likely to be sent to a lock-up facility.     

A comparison of rape and molest offenders in prison psychiatric treatment

Differences in offense history, brain functioning, and psychological functioning of rape (n = 45) and molest offenders (n = 15) who were receiving psychiatric treatment while in prison were evaluated. Significant differences were found in each of these domains. Rape offenders were more likely to have histories of high violence offenses other than sexual offense, including murder, serious juvenile offenses, and both juvenile and adult sexual offenses. Rape offenders were more likely to show lower intellectual functioning and diffuse brain dysfunction associated predominantly with temporal and prefrontal brain cortices. Rape offenders were also more likely to display psychological functioning associated with illogical thinking and disordered attachment but less immature self-focus and fewer feelings of alienation than demonstrated by molest offenders. Implications for treatment and social policy for sexual offenders are suggested. Logistic regression demonstrated that these neuropsychological measures resulted in 71.7% accurate prediction and Rorschach measures resulted in 79.2% accurate prediction in differentiating rape from molest offenders. Implications for theoretical understanding of sexual offending are discussed.     

Specialization and versatility in sexual offenders referred for civil commitment

Offense specialization and versatility have been investigated in general offender populations, but have only recently been examined in sexual offenders. This study explored the extent of both tendencies in the criminal histories of 572 adult male sexual offenders referred for civil commitment. The specialization threshold and the diversity index were used to compare offender subgroups by referral status (committed versus observed) and offense type (rape, child molestation, and incest). Offense versatility was the more likely tendency across the sample. Committed and observed offenders did not differ. Although predominantly versatile, child molesters were significantly more likely than rapists to specialize in sexual offenses, and were also more likely to specialize in child molestation (compared to rapists specializing in rape). These results confirm previous findings on criminal versatility among sexual offenders. This adds to a growing body of research that questions universal and selective crime control policies designed exclusively for sexual offenders.     

Ego Identity Status as an Indicator of Peer Court Efficacy

Peer courts are an alternative to juvenile court, intended to provide less stigmatizing and more individually responsive dispositions for first‐time and early youthful offenders. This study examined the potential usefulness of assessing ego identity status for peer courts. Mailed surveys were sent to attendees of seven Utah peer courts who had their cases reviewed between August 1998 and January 1999. Thirty‐seven percent (N = 120) responded. Chi Square analysis showed that ego identity statuses were related to drug use and previous delinquent behavior, but not recidivism. Foreclosed status youths were statistically unlikely to recidivate, use drugs, and reported fewer previous offenses.     

Coping with Imprisonment: Testing the Special Sensitivity Hypothesis for White-Collar Offenders

This study uses nationally representative prison data to test two competing theories of how white-collar offenders experience prison. The first perspective, referred to as the special sensitivity hypothesis, assumes that because of their social and demographic background characteristics white-collar offenders are more susceptible to the pains of imprisonment than other inmates. The second perspective, referred to as the special resiliency hypothesis, is based on the idea that these same background characteristics may reduce the pains of imprisonment for white-collar offenders. Ordinal and binary logistic regression models are used to estimate the effect of white-collar inmate status on several indicators of psychological adjustment. The current study finds partial support for the special resiliency hypothesis, but not the special sensitivity hypothesis. The results for each outcome are discussed regarding both theoretical and practical applications. The study’s limitations are also addressed and suggestions for future research on incarcerated white-collar offenders are given.     

Concurrent cross-validation of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire: a tool for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism and institutional adjustment on a sample of North Carolina offenders

The aim of this study was to determine whether the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ), a tool that was found to be reliable and valid for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism and institutional adjustment for Canadian offenders, would also be valid for the same purposes with a demographically different population of North Carolina offenders. The internal consistency alphas and SAQ total and subscale scores' correlations were high. Offenders with high SAQ total scores had significantly more violent offenses, had more total number of past offenses, had higher numbers of past arrests, and had more institutional infractions than those with low SAQ scores. There were no significant differences between the responses of the African American and Caucasian offenders on the SAQ scales. These results support previous findings regarding the reliability and validity of the SAQ for assessing recidivism and institutional adjustment and suggest that the SAQ could be used with diverse populations.     

Violent recidivism and chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia cohort

In the present study the relationship between chronicity and violent recidivism is analyzed using longitudinal data from the 1958 Philadelphia cohort. The data reaffirm prior research findings that a small cadre of offenders commits the majority of crimes which involve serious harm to the community, yet it was found that the violent offenders accounted for a large share of the more serious index offenses. In addition, among violent delinquents there is a greater proportion of chronic offenders than among nonviolent delinquents. Chronic offenders were more likely than nonchronic offenders to repeat a violent offense. Violent recidivists also committed a large proportion of nonviolent index offenses. One might imply from the results of this study that a policy of selective incapacitation of high-rate offenders would substantially reduce the amount of violent crime as well as nonviolent crime.     

Criminal diversity and paraphilic interests among adult males convicted of sexual offenses against children

Official demographic and offense history data (n = 362) and confidential self-report data on paraphilic interests and behavior (n = 221) obtained on adult males convicted of sexual offenses against children were analyzed. Considerable criminal diversity was observed, with all standard categories of offenses represented in offenders' criminal histories. Most (86%) of the offenders' previous convictions were for nonsexual offenses, and most (92%) of the recidivist offenders had previously been convicted of at least one nonsexual offense. The prevalence of diagnosable paraphilias was low, with only 5% meeting formal diagnostic criteria for multiple (two or more) paraphilias other than pedophilia. Sexual offenders' paraphilic interests were unrelated to the extent of their sexual offense convictions but were significantly related to the extent of their nonsexual offense convictions. The results are better explained by a general theory of crime than by traditional clinical conceptions linking sexual offenses specifically with sexual psychopathology.     

The effect of imprisonment on recommitment: an analysis using exact,coarsened exact,and radius matching with the propensity score

Objectives

This study examines the effect of prison versus community sanctions on recommitment to prison and compares two levels of community supervision, community control (house arrest) and probation, evaluating whether the findings are contingent on the type of matching methods used in the analysis.

Methods

Logistic regression was conducted on unmatched and matched samples. Exact, coarsened exact, and radius-matching procedures were used to create a selection on observables design. Matching variables included current offense, demographics, criminal history, supervision violations, and a rich set of Florida Sentencing Guidelines information culled from an official scoring sheet. Florida judges use this instrument to sentence offenders within the framework of the state determinate sentencing system.

Results

The results show that with exact matching, there is no effect of imprisonment on recommitment, while the other procedures suggest a specific deterrent effect of imprisonment. All four analysis methods showed that offenders under community control are more likely to reoffend than those under normal probation. Analyses between the matched and unmatched prison observations demonstrate that the matched set of prisoners is composed of offenders who have less extensive criminal records and less serious conviction offenses than unmatched offenders regardless of the matching algorithm.

Conclusions

Contrary to a prior analysis of these data, which found a criminogenic effect of prison, a null effect was found using exact matching. Comparing the matching procedures, the more precise the match the less likely there was an effect of prison. However, community control was criminogenic regardless of the matching procedure.

     

Messy Business: Media Representations of Administrative Sanctions for Corporate Offenders

Enforcement against corporate offenses is increasingly carried out by specialized regulatory agencies. These often use publicity as a regulatory tool, in the expectation that disclosure of sanctions will invoke the threat of reputational damage and broadcasts a moral message about desired behavior. This article investigates how media represent administrative offenses in the Dutch financial market, in terms of punitiveness for offenders and in terms of the message about the wrongfulness and harm of offenses. Media coverage of administrative fines is messy in several senses. First, adverse publicity is unpredictable and disproportionally affects small firms in comparison with large, professional firms. In addition, it is also messy in terms of its contribution to the prevention of corporate misbehavior. Media do not unequivocally disapprove of financial market offenses. Rather than clarifying the demarcation line between right and wrong, media describe financial market behavior as a grey zone where differences of opinion can exist over whether certain behavior constitutes an offense. More than a publicity sanction or moral message, media was found to frame offenses by retail banks and capital market firms in terms of the power struggle between firms and the regulatory authority.