Stochastic Models of Crime Rates

Empirical-stochastic models of index crimes are developed in ten major metropolitan areas. Detailed examples of the model building and forecasting ability of the models are illustrated. Characteristics of the resulting model forms are briefly discussed relative to their use in forecasting and resource assignment in criminal justice planning. The existence of uniform underlying causal mechanisms for given crime types are also discussed from re-occurring model forms.     

Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

A methodological critique of Cantor and Land's (1985) approach to the time series analysis of the crime–unemployment relationship is developed. Error correction models for U.S. homicide and robbery rates for the years 1946–1997 are presented to illustrate procedures for analyzing nonstationary time series data. The critique is followed by a discussion of methodological problems in work by Devine et al. (1988), Smith et al. (1992), and Britt (1994, 1997) that builds on Cantor and Land's approach.     

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.     

Are US Crime Rates Really Unit Root Processes?

Existing research has uncovered little evidence against the hypothesis of US crime rates being unit root processes, despite the uncomfortable implications of this assumption. In light of this, the present paper draws upon noted changes in the temporal patterns of US crime rates since 1960 to undertake an informed approach to testing of the unit root hypothesis which incorporates two potential points of structural change. The results obtained show the unit root hypothesis to be rejected for all classifications of criminal activity examined over the period 1960 to 2007. In addition, the dates of the detected breakpoints are supported by a variety of arguments available in the existing criminology literature concerning alternative determinants of crime and their movements. Interestingly, a difference is observed in the nature of the breaks detected for violent and property crimes. However, potential explanations for this are again found in theoretical arguments available in the criminology literature. Finally, the implications of the current findings for the properties of crime, its subsequent statistical analysis and past and future research are discussed.     

Inequality, Opportunity, and Crime Rates in Central Cities

In a recent paper, Cohen and Felson argue that changes in our routine activities since World War 11 have contributed to the increase in predatory crime by creating additional opportunities for it. In particular, they found that a measure of the dispersal of activities away from the home-the household activity ratio-has had a significant effect on crime rate trends since 1947. The aim of the present research is twofold: (1) to determine if this relationship occurs across space as well as over time, and (2) to see i f economic inequality may be an intervening variable between the household activity ratio and the crime rate. The sample consists of 93 nonsouthern cities of over 50,000 population in 1960. Data are drawn from the 1970 Census und the U n i f m Crime Reports. Using path analysis, it is determined that the effects of the household activity ratio cm rates of predatory crime are entirely indirect, and are transmitted by income inequality.     

The Effects of Immigrant Concentration on Changes in Neighborhood Crime Rates

Objectives

This study investigated the extent to which immigrant concentration is associated with reductions in neighborhood crime rates in the City of Los Angeles.

Methods

A potential outcomes model using two-stage least squares regression was estimated, where immigrant concentration levels in 1990 were used as an instrumental variable to predict immigrant concentration levels in 2000. The instrumental variables design was used to reduce selection bias in estimating the effect of immigrant concentration on changes in official crime rates between 2000 and 2005 for census tracts in the City of Los Angeles, holding constant other demographic variables and area-level fixed effects. Non-parametric smoothers were also employed in a two-stage least squares regression model to control for the potential influence of heterogeneity in immigrant concentration on changes in crime rates.

Results

The results indicate that greater predicted concentrations of immigrants in neighborhoods are linked to significant reductions in crime. The results are robust to a number of different model specifications.

Conclusions

The findings challenge traditional ecological perspectives that link immigrant settlement to higher rates of crime. Immigration settlement patterns appear to be associated with reducing the social burden of crime. Study conclusions are limited by the potential for omitted variables that may bias the observed relationship between immigrant concentration and neighborhood crime rates, and the use of only official crime data which may under report crimes committed against immigrants. Understanding whether immigrant concentration is an important dynamic of changing neighborhood patterns of crime outside Los Angeles will require replication with data from other U.S. cities.     

Victimization Rates, Exposure to Risk, and Fear of Crime

Studies of fear of crime repeatedly point to an apparent paradox: fear of crime and risk of victimization are related inversely among demographic groups (i.e., age, race, and sex groups). However, data from surveys of Chicago residents show that fear of crime is related positively to victimization rates once they are adjusted for exposure to risk. When demographic variables are included with the adjusted rates as predictors of fear of crime, age and sex effects persist. Even so the present findings indicate that fear of crime should not be interpreted as an irrational or unjustified response and that fear can be reduced by lowering victimization rates.     

Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.     

心理机制制约下的见危不助犯罪化探析

针对社会上频频发生的见危不助事件和见危不助行为犯罪化立场的泛化,考察一项刑事立法的相关制约因素,是刑事理性选择的必然.作为法益与法制有机组成部分的犯罪化刑事政策,只有基于对人的基本认识与判断,分析人们的心理认知与社会行为之间的关系,研究见危不助场合的心理反应机制,探析影响人们选择见危不助行为方式的个体、群体以及社会等方面的因素,才能谨慎地处理和看待见危不助犯罪化的问题.     

When Crime is not an Option: Inspecting the Moral Filtering of Criminal Action Alternatives

Many theories assume legal compliance stems from rational deliberations about consequences of disobedience. In contrast, morality theories such as Wikström’s Situational Action Theory contend personal morality and moral contexts provide a “filter” prohibiting some people from perceiving and contemplating criminal actions as realistic possibilities. We examine this moral filtering hypothesis using face-to-face household survey data from 573 adults in the Dhaka District of Bangladesh. Results suggest individuals with higher levels of personal morality (moral beliefs; guilt from contemplating violence; moral identity; emotional empathy) and exposure to strong moral settings are less likely to contemplate aggressive and violent actions in response to a provocation. Furthermore, these dimensions of personal and contextual morality appear to be indirectly linked to violent criminal actions through individuals’ tendencies to contemplate aggressive actions when provoked. Overall, our initial inspection of the moral filter hypothesis provides substantial support and highlights areas for theoretical clarification and additional research.     

惩治跨国贩运妇女儿童犯罪的现状、困境及对策

针对贩运妇女儿童犯罪日益猖獗和不断呈现出来的跨国有组织犯罪的发展趋势,各国有必要以联合国打击贩运人口的补充议定书为基础,建立打击贩运人口犯罪的国际合作机制,以有效遏制这类严重侵犯人权的犯罪,保护被贩卖的妇女、儿童的合法权益。     

Low Crime Rates in Bahrain: Islamic Social Control-Testing the Theory of Synnomie

This pioneer work builds upon the systems of social control (synnomie) developed by Freda Adler (1983). Its intent is to assess the low crime profile of Bahrain and in so doing to offer explanations for this country's low crime rates. While there is crime in Bahrain, this country appears to be the exception to the rule that rapid industrialization breeds high crime. The unique situation in Bahrain will be analyzed by: giving an overview of the country of Bahrain, examining recent crime statistics reported by official agencies in Bahrain, the United States, and in addition, the state of Vermont. The official sources of these data are not considered to be the most reliable indicators of crime, but they are the most comparable. Vermont is used for the comparison of numbers since it has an approximate population to Bahrain.

Low statistics of the amount of crime are reported for Bahrain which form the foundation for this paper. This paper offers possible explanations of low crime by using as its base the theory of synnomie (the consistency of norm and values sharing); and summarizes the main points in this paper and draws conclusions which point in the direction for the future of Bahrain, its citizens, and incidences of reported crime as Bahrain continues with its mission of modernization.     

Structural Covariates of Violent Crime Rates in Germany: Exploratory Spatial Analyses of Kreise

This research applies the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression modeling to explain variation in robbery and assault rates across 413 districts or “Kreise” in Germany. The findings from ESDA reveal a distinct clustering of low rates in southern Germany, especially for robbery. The results of the spatial regression analyses indicate that for the nation at large, Kreise with high robbery and assault rates tend to be those with comparatively high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and a more urbanized environment, findings consistent with those commonly reported with data for areal units in the USA. We also observe net regional effects for the south in the regression models that pose puzzles for further inquiry into the German case, and “null effects” of the eastern region that have implications for more general debates of the potentially criminogenic consequences of the transition to market economies.     

The Effect of Police Personnel Levels on Crime Clearance Rates: A Cross-National Analysis

A recent upsurge in governmental concern about police efficiency has produced a plethora of evaluative studies. Most of these studies have assumed a relationship between police activity and crime that has been, during the past eight years, seriously questioned. The present study investigates this relationship by employing a cross-national sample to resolve past methodological problems. Based on previous literature, the social conflict, economic, and political factors that confound the relationship between police personnel levels and crime clearance effects are identified and then controlled through regression analysis.

The findings indicate that the number of police has a negative effect on clearance rates. However, its effect is minimal. In addition, the social structural characteristics of nations explain more variance in clearance rates than do the levels of police, as well as attenuate the observed relationship between the police personnel and crimes cleared by arrest. Of special interest is the finding that increased system openness as well as concern for political and civil rights positively affects clearance rates, a finding which runs counter to current justice thinking.     

环境犯罪对传统刑罚目的之挑战与应对

环境刑法作为一门相对独立的、新近的刑事法学科,其理论研究的新触点带给理论界和实务界一种迥异于传统的思辨方式,使传统刑法理论受到多方位的冲击。刑罚目的作为刑法理论中的核心部分,其重要性不言自明。在环境刑法的大语境之下,必须重视和端正对环境犯罪科处刑罚的目的是旨在实现一般的预防犯罪的作用,并以一般预防为理论根基,进一步完善与之相配套的刑事法律法规。惟其如此,环境刑法的机能才能得到充分的发挥,人类生存极端依赖的自然生态环境以及行政环境保护制度才能达致有效的保护。     

论枉法仲裁罪的设立当缓

日前提交全国人大常委会审议的《刑法修正案(六)(草案)》建议增设枉法仲裁罪。本文在分析仲裁员责任理论和各国法律实践的基础上,从仲裁的本质、特点、枉法仲裁罪的内涵以及设立的后果等几个方面对是否应当设立枉法仲裁罪进行了论证,认为枉法仲裁罪目前不宜设立。