Stochastic Models of Crime Rates

Empirical-stochastic models of index crimes are developed in ten major metropolitan areas. Detailed examples of the model building and forecasting ability of the models are illustrated. Characteristics of the resulting model forms are briefly discussed relative to their use in forecasting and resource assignment in criminal justice planning. The existence of uniform underlying causal mechanisms for given crime types are also discussed from re-occurring model forms.     

Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

A methodological critique of Cantor and Land's (1985) approach to the time series analysis of the crime–unemployment relationship is developed. Error correction models for U.S. homicide and robbery rates for the years 1946–1997 are presented to illustrate procedures for analyzing nonstationary time series data. The critique is followed by a discussion of methodological problems in work by Devine et al. (1988), Smith et al. (1992), and Britt (1994, 1997) that builds on Cantor and Land's approach.     

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.     

Victimization Rates, Exposure to Risk, and Fear of Crime

Studies of fear of crime repeatedly point to an apparent paradox: fear of crime and risk of victimization are related inversely among demographic groups (i.e., age, race, and sex groups). However, data from surveys of Chicago residents show that fear of crime is related positively to victimization rates once they are adjusted for exposure to risk. When demographic variables are included with the adjusted rates as predictors of fear of crime, age and sex effects persist. Even so the present findings indicate that fear of crime should not be interpreted as an irrational or unjustified response and that fear can be reduced by lowering victimization rates.     

犯罪构成的性质:事实认识方法抑或规范解释模型

犯罪构成性质问题是犯罪构成理论的基础性和方向性问题.从事实与规范关系视角考察,目前世界范围内对犯罪构成性质的定位有案件事实认识方法与规范解释模型两种.从应然的立场,基于事实与规范关系的法理、犯罪构成理论的目标以及犯罪构成的实际内容等方面的考量,应将犯罪构成性质定位于刑案事实认识的方法而非法律规范解释的模型.这一犯罪构成...     

Cross-Classified Multilevel Models: An Application to the Criminal Case Processing of Indicted Terrorists

This study provides an application of cross-classified multilevel models to the study of early case processing outcomes for suspected terrorists in U.S. federal district courts. Because suspected terrorists are simultaneously nested within terrorist organizations and criminal court environments, they are characterized by overlapping data hierarchies that involve cross-nested ecological contexts. Cross-classified models provide a useful but underutilized approach for analyzing such data. Using the American Terrorism Study (ATS), this research examines case dismissals, trial adjudications and criminal convictions for a sample of 574 terrorist suspects. Findings indicate that diverse factors affect case processing outcomes, including legal factors such as the number of counts, number of co-defendants, and statute of indictment, extralegal factors such as the ethnicity of the offender, and incident characteristics such as the type of terrorism target. Case processing outcomes also vary significantly across both terrorist groups and criminal courts and are partially explained by select group and court characteristics including the type of terrorist organization and the terrorism trial rate of the court. Results are discussed vis-à-vis contemporary research on terrorism punishments and future directions are suggested for additional applications of cross-classified models in criminological research.     

少年刑事案件的刑法适用

对少年正确认定刑事责任,对少年犯罪人准确定罪与适用刑罚,是少年刑法制度中的重要问题。我国《刑法》第17条第2款的规定及刑罚在少年刑事案件适用过程中经常出现争议。对其中的主要争议的问题,笔者的看法是:已满14周岁不满16周岁的人,在绑架行为中杀害被绑架人应当负故意杀人的刑事责任,对其奸淫幼女行为的刑事责任应按案件的实际情况具体分析,此年龄阶段的少年不应成为转化型抢劫罪的主体。对少年犯罪从宽处罚原则应结合少年个别化的情况进行适用,无期徒刑应限制适用,财产刑的适用则应综合考虑其适用条件,并坚持“教育为主,惩罚为辅”的原则。     

The Law of Crime Concentration: An Application and Recommendations for Future Research

Objective

We address four outstanding empirical questions related to the “law of crime concentration” (Weisburd in Criminology 53:133–157, 2015): (1) Is the spatial concentration of crime stable over time? (2) Do the same places consistently rank among those with the highest crime counts? (3) How much crime concentration would be observed if crimes were distributed randomly over place? (4) To what degree does the spatial concentration of crime depend on places that are crime free?

Methods

The data are annual counts of violent and property crimes in St. Louis between 2000 and 2014. Temporal stability in the spatial inequality of crime is measured by computing the fraction of crimes that occur in the 5% of street segments with the highest crime frequencies each year. The spatial mobility of crime is measured by computing the number of years each street segment appears in the top 5% of street segments. Poisson simulations are used to estimate the fraction of crimes that could appear in the top 5% of street segments on the basis of chance alone. The impact of crime-free locales on the spatial concentration of crime is evaluated by comparing results from analyses that include and exclude crime-free street segments from the crime distributions.

Results

The concentration of crime is highly unequal and stable over time. The specific street segments with the highest crime frequencies, however, change over time. Nontrivial fractions of street segments may appear among the 5% with the highest crime frequencies on the basis of chance. Spatial concentration of crime is reduced when crime-free street segments are excluded from the crime distributions.

Conclusions

The law of crime concentration is not a measurement artifact. Its substantive significance, however, should be assessed in future longitudinal research that replicates the current study across diverse social settings.

     

Modeling Micro-Level Crime Location Choice: Application of the Discrete Choice Framework to Crime at Places

Discrete choice recently emerged as a new framework for analyzing criminal location decisions, but has thus far only been used to study the choice amongst large areas like census tracts. Because offenders also make target selection decisions at much lower levels of spatial aggregation, the present study analyzes the location choices of offenders at detailed spatial resolutions: the average unit of analysis is an area of only 18 residential units and 40 residents. This article reviews the discrete choice and spatial choice literature, justifies the use of geographic units this small, and argues that because small spatial units depend strongly on their environment, models are needed that take into account spatial interdependence. To illustrate these points, burglary location choice data from the Netherlands are analyzed with discrete choice models, including the spatial competition model.     

Low Crime Rates in Bahrain: Islamic Social Control-Testing the Theory of Synnomie

This pioneer work builds upon the systems of social control (synnomie) developed by Freda Adler (1983). Its intent is to assess the low crime profile of Bahrain and in so doing to offer explanations for this country's low crime rates. While there is crime in Bahrain, this country appears to be the exception to the rule that rapid industrialization breeds high crime. The unique situation in Bahrain will be analyzed by: giving an overview of the country of Bahrain, examining recent crime statistics reported by official agencies in Bahrain, the United States, and in addition, the state of Vermont. The official sources of these data are not considered to be the most reliable indicators of crime, but they are the most comparable. Vermont is used for the comparison of numbers since it has an approximate population to Bahrain.

Low statistics of the amount of crime are reported for Bahrain which form the foundation for this paper. This paper offers possible explanations of low crime by using as its base the theory of synnomie (the consistency of norm and values sharing); and summarizes the main points in this paper and draws conclusions which point in the direction for the future of Bahrain, its citizens, and incidences of reported crime as Bahrain continues with its mission of modernization.     

An Algebraic Analysis of Normative Systems

In the present paper we study how subsystems of a normative system can be combined, and the role of such combinations for the understanding of hypothetical legal consequences. A combination of two subsystems is often accomplished by a normative correlation or an intermediate concept. To obtain a detailed analysis of such phenomena we use an algebraic framework. Normative systems are represented as algebraic structures over sets of conditions. This representation makes it possible to study normative systems using an extension of the theory of Boolean algebras, called the theory of Boolean quasi-orderings.     

Structural Covariates of Violent Crime Rates in Germany: Exploratory Spatial Analyses of Kreise

This research applies the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression modeling to explain variation in robbery and assault rates across 413 districts or “Kreise” in Germany. The findings from ESDA reveal a distinct clustering of low rates in southern Germany, especially for robbery. The results of the spatial regression analyses indicate that for the nation at large, Kreise with high robbery and assault rates tend to be those with comparatively high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and a more urbanized environment, findings consistent with those commonly reported with data for areal units in the USA. We also observe net regional effects for the south in the regression models that pose puzzles for further inquiry into the German case, and “null effects” of the eastern region that have implications for more general debates of the potentially criminogenic consequences of the transition to market economies.     

非法持有宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义物品罪的规范解释

非法持有宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义物品罪中的持有应当采取合目的扩大解释的立场,没有合法正当根据是其核心要义。当《刑法》明确区分储存和持有时,持有的范围应当限缩解释。在《刑法》没有区分时,应当将本罪中的持有理解为包括储存。非法持有宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义物品罪和持有假币罪等犯罪中的持有在司法认定上应当适度区分,前者不要求具有特定的目的,而后者通常具有使假币进入流通领域等目的,后者应当采取限缩解释。非法持有后宣扬,应当根据宣扬的对象和持有的对象关系作出区别处理,同一宗的对象,以及仅将非法持有的部分物品宣扬的,按照宣扬行为论处。非法持有和宣扬的物品属于不同宗时,存在数罪并罚的空间。在认定本罪明知时不宜过度强调行为人的智力等因素,应当并进一步细化司法解释中的以客观事实为基础的法则,并肯定违法性认识错误的重要性,以做出合理的解释。     

The Effect of Police Personnel Levels on Crime Clearance Rates: A Cross-National Analysis

A recent upsurge in governmental concern about police efficiency has produced a plethora of evaluative studies. Most of these studies have assumed a relationship between police activity and crime that has been, during the past eight years, seriously questioned. The present study investigates this relationship by employing a cross-national sample to resolve past methodological problems. Based on previous literature, the social conflict, economic, and political factors that confound the relationship between police personnel levels and crime clearance effects are identified and then controlled through regression analysis.

The findings indicate that the number of police has a negative effect on clearance rates. However, its effect is minimal. In addition, the social structural characteristics of nations explain more variance in clearance rates than do the levels of police, as well as attenuate the observed relationship between the police personnel and crimes cleared by arrest. Of special interest is the finding that increased system openness as well as concern for political and civil rights positively affects clearance rates, a finding which runs counter to current justice thinking.     

贪污罪法律适用若干问题研究

司法实践中贪污犯罪认定的诸多疑难问题,主要集中于贪污对象的认定、贪污罪客观行为要件的判定、贪污罪的既未遂形态界定以及贪污罪数额的认定等问题。本文选取若干典型案例,有针对性地对这些问题展开论述。     

Crime prevention participation:An exploratory analysis

Most past research on crime and crime prevention has focused on their occurrence in urban settings. Relatively little attention has been given to crime and citizen crime prevention in small town/rural areas. The present study uses secondary data from the National Crime Survey: Victim Risk Supplement, 1983 to investigate citizen participation in five crime prevention domains within large urban areas and small town/rural areas. The results suggest that, while there are some similarities in citizen participation, various factors have different degrees of impact in different locations. Further, differences in crime prevention participation are more a function of the type of crime prevention than of the size of the local population.     

The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area toanother has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yetsystematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength,of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two timeperiods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984–1988) and aperiod of generally increasing homicide (1988–1993). The findingsreveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positivespatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution ofhomicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of onecounty containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearbycounties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Althoughtraditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatialdistribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluentareas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers againstthe diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealedthrough ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification ofmultivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.