The influence of economic factors on police crime recording behavior in the United States between 1960 and 1980

This study examines the influence of certain economic factors (inflation, unemployment, credit, competition, profit and inequality), total social welfare expenditures, and total number of full-time officers, derived from a radical theory of police behavior, on police crime recording behavior in the United States between 1960 and 1980. In contrast to previous research, which has failed to provide a single model that explains over fifty percent of the variance in the dependent variable (Sherman, 1980), this study found three models that explain over fifty percent of the variance in police crime recording behavior.     

Street justice: Some micro-moral reservations: Comment on sykes

Research on the use of incapacitation strategies to reduce crime has increased rapidly in the last decade. Estimates of the crime reduction potential are numerous and variable, reflecting different assumptions by researchers. This paper reviews and synthesizes studies of collective and selective incapacitation. Sentencing practices in the 1970s and early 1980s prevented an estimated 10 to 30 percent of potential crimes through collective incapacitation strategies. Greater use of incarceration, such as through mandatory minimum sentences, would prevent additional crimes, but prison populations would increase substantially. Selective incapacitation strategies target a small group of convicted offenders, those who are predicted to commit serious crimes at high rates, for incarceration. These high-rate serious offenders, however, are difficult to identify accurately with information currently available in official criminal history records. Preliminary research, assuming moderate accuracy, suggests that selective incapacitation may prevent some crimes, such as 5 to 10 percent of robberies by adults, but increases in prison populations would result. The future of selective incapacitation is discussed in light of current research and knowledge about serious criminal activity.     

Routine activity and labor market segmentation An empirical test of a revised approach

This article contends that routine activity theory has virtually ignored the motivated offender construct in terms of its measurement. We extend previous research testing routine activity theory by more accurately modeling the effects of labor market segmentation and other structural sources of offender motivation on variation in crime rates. A revised routine activity model is tested using data for the 100 largest cities in the US in 1980. The findings suggest that as secondary labor markets grow, urban crime can be expected to rise.     

The Dark Figure of Online Property Crime: Is Cyberspace Hiding a Crime Wave?

A pronounced drop in crime, since the early 1990s, has encompassed every crime category tracked by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, including property crime. However, over the same period, the rates of online property crime (OPC) have been on the rise according to available evidence. We delineate the extent of our knowledge and data concerning cybercrime and identity theft and, using data from several nationally representative victimization surveys, offer an alternative view of property crime trends while pointing out the glaring gap in crime reporting and accounting in relation to the growing category of property crimes perpetrated online. In addition, we compare estimated costs of traditional property crime vs. OPC. Finally, we identify the main challenges for obtaining reliable data on OPC and discuss their implications, especially when applying the traditional methods of compiling crime statistics.     

From Safety to Danger: Constructions of Crime in a Women’s Magazine

This study examines how the print media constructs signifiers of safety and danger for women. We analyze 155 news articles regarding crime and criminal justice from 1970 to 1990 in Chatelaine magazine, a Canadian women’s periodical. Both content and textual analyses are deployed to evaluate the media representations of crime and their role in facilitating images of fear and safety. We show that the meanings associated with women’s danger and safety in news narratives are socially constructed through claims, sources, content and culture. We find that news reporting did not initially incorporate signifiers of fear. However, crime messages increasingly included images of fear in the later reporting period. We argue that the transformations surrounding these images and texts are influenced by the rise in neoliberal thought in the 1980s. Our results indicate that ideological struggles external to the media are crucial to the representation of crime, which ultimately influence signifiers of danger and safety for women.     

Sex, lies, and videotape: The presentation of sex crime in local television news

The portrayal of sex crime in popular media is distorted and sensational. The media propagate several myths about sex crime and provide numerous inaccuracies about the nature and level of sex crime. Employing content analysis, this research sought to systematically and critically explore the presentation of sex crime in local television newscasts. The results revealed that approximately 10 percent of crime stories were sex related. In addition, the results suggested that sex crime stories were more likely to present fear, while being less likely to appear sensational or report motives. Finally, unlike the majority of crime stories, sex crime stories were more likely to be reported in the later stages of criminal justice, which included the court, sentencing, and disposition phase. These findings are discussed within the context of common depictions of sex crime. Essentially, victim credibility and fear are universal themes within the context of sex crime presentation.     

The Distribution of Police Protection

This paper investigates the distribution of police protection in the United States by race and class. By examining police employment and demographic data for every general-service police jurisdiction in the US, I find that poor and heavily-nonwhite jurisdictions employ far fewer officers per crime than wealthy and white jurisdictions do. That finding contrasts with an older body of literature on the distribution of police protection, which examined the distribution of police resources across neighborhoods within individual cities and found little inequality. I also find that inequality in police protection has grown since 1970—a finding that contrasts with the increasingly equal distribution of resources for education, the other major claim on local government revenues—largely because criminal victimization became more concentrated in disadvantaged communities. (In the process, I find that contrary to widespread impressions, the crime rate fell very little in the most disadvantaged jurisdictions from 1980 to 2000, and violent crime actually increased). Finally, by examining data about federal grant programs, I find that the rise of federal contributions to local policing in the 1990s slowed the growth of inequality somewhat, suggesting that revenue-sharing has a real but modest role to play in reducing inequality in police protection. Together these findings highlight a neglected aspect of equality in criminal justice.     

REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980–2008: SORTING OUT THE “HISPANIC EFFECT” IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS,NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES,AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS*

Recent studies suggest a decline in the relative Black effect on violent crime in recent decades and interpret this decline as resulting from greater upward mobility among African Americans during the past several decades. However, other assessments of racial stratification in American society suggest at least as much durability as change in Black social mobility since the 1980s. Our goal is to assess how patterns of racial disparity in violent crime and incarceration have changed from 1980 to 2008. We argue that prior studies showing a shrinking Black share of violent crime might be in error because of reliance on White and Black national crime statistics that are confounded with Hispanic offenders, whose numbers have been increasing rapidly and whose violence rates are higher than that of Whites but lower than that of Blacks. Using 1980–2008 California and New York arrest data to adjust for this “Hispanic effect” in national Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data, we assess whether the observed national decline in racial disparities in violent crime is an artifact of the growth in Hispanic populations and offenders. Results suggest that little overall change has occurred in the Black share of violent offending in both UCR and NCVS estimates during the last 30 years. In addition, racial imbalances in arrest versus incarceration levels across the index violent crimes are both small and comparably sized across the study period. We conclude by discussing the consistency of these findings with trends in economic and social integration of Blacks in American society during the past 50 years.     

CRIME,FEAR, AND MENTAL HEALTH IN MEXICO

This article examines the effect of exposure to criminal violence on fear of crime and mental health in Mexico, a country that has experienced a dramatic rise in violent events resulting from the operation of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). Data are drawn from more than 30,000 respondents to a national longitudinal survey of Mexican households. We use fixed‐effects models which allow us to control for time‐invariant individual and municipal characteristics affecting both exposure to violence and mental health. The results indicate a substantial increase in fear and psychological distress for individuals living in communities that suffered a rise in the local homicide rate even when exposure to other forms of victimization and more personal experiences with crime are taken into account. Because DTO killings occur in response to factors external to a specific neighborhood, they generate fear and psychological distress at a larger geographical scale. They also seem to create a generalized sense of insecurity, leading to increased fear of other types of crimes. We examine the effect of large surges in homicide and the presence of military and paramilitary groups combatting DTOs as these conditions may approximate those in conflict zones elsewhere in the world. We also explore differences in the relative sensitivity to homicide rates between sociodemographic groups.     

No way out: crime,punishment and the capitalization of power

The United States is often hailed as the world’s largest ‘free market’. But this ‘free market’ is also the world’s largest penal colony. It holds over seven million adults – roughly 5 % of the labour force – in jail, in prison, on parole and on probation. Is this an anomaly, or does the ‘free market’ require massive state punishment? Why did the correctional population start to rise in the 1980s, together with the onset of neoliberalism? How is this increase related to the upward redistribution of income and the capitalization of power? Can soaring incarceration sustain the unprecedented power of dominant capital, or is there a reversal in the offing? The paper examines these questions by juxtaposing the ‘Rusche thesis’ with the notion of capitalism as a mode of power. The empirical analysis raises an enigma: it suggests that the Rusche thesis holds under the normal circumstances of ‘business as usual’, but breaks down during periods of systemic crisis. During the systemic crises of the 1930s and the 2000s, unemployment increased sharply, but crime and the severity of punishment, instead of rising, dropped perceptibly.     

Perceptions of crime seriousness in eight African-American communities: The influence of individual,environmental, and crime-based factors

Using secondary data analysis, we examine the perceptions of crime seriousness among 621 African-Americans living in eight urban neighborhoods stratified by crime rate and income level. On the basis of the literature exploring perception formation and attitudes toward crime seriousness, we hypothesize that individual-level variables, community-level variables, experiential variables, and the motive for the crime will influence respondents' perceptions of crime seriousness. The results of six multiple regression models suggest that gender, age, community crime rate, city of residence, religiosity, and fear of crime significantly influence respondents' view of crime. We challenge the assumption that there is considerable consensus regarding perceptions of crime seriousness, and discuss the implications for the justice system.     

The Internet, Technology, and Organized Crime

Digital technology has transformed organizational life. Developments in communications, and in information storage and retrieval, to name just two areas, have greatly enhanced the efficiency with which legitimate organizations operate. Unfortunately, the benefits of digital technology are not lost on criminal organizations, which exploit digital technology to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of their own operations. This paper will discuss the organized criminal exploitation of digital technology, by looking at a number of illustrative cases from Asia and around the world. It will discuss the various types of “conventional” organized crime that can be facilitated by digital technology, as well as terrorism, which itself can be regarded as a special kind of organized criminal activity. One fundamental question that the paper will seek to address is whether the activities of Asian organized crime have become substantively different as a result of technology, or whether traditional organized criminal activities in Asia are merely being conducted on a more efficient and effective basis. The paper will note the transnational nature of much organized criminal activity, and will discuss mechanisms for the control of organized crime in the digital age.     

The economy,crime and time: An analysis of recorded property crime in England & Wales 1961–2006

We seek to determine whether one of the unanticipated side-effects of social and economic changes associated with the adoption of neoliberal and monetarist economics during the 1970s/1980s was rising crime rates. Undertaking time series analysis of social and economic determinants of property crime (using official statistics on recorded crime for England and Wales from 1961 to 2006) we develop a model of the effect of changes in socio-economic variables (unemployment, inequality, welfare spending and incarceration) on property crime rates. We find that while three of these had significant effects on change in the property crime rate, income inequality did not. We conclude with a discussion of the extent to which neoliberal economic and welfare (and later criminal justice) policies can be held to have influenced the property crime rate since the early 1980s and what this tells us about the social and economic determinants of crime at the macro-level.     

Cross-Cultural Reflections of Organized Crime

The authors discuss the phenomenon of organized crime and why it appears to be a uniquely American problem. Comparing and contrasting ten cultural and/or socio-political variables, the authors demonstrate that American organized crime is uniquely related to its historical heritage, and that the inability of British society (inclusive of the media, researchers, and police officials) to officially recognize organized crime may be a result of “perceptual impairment” as opposed to its non-existence. The authors conclude that the study of the organizaion of crime deserves increased emphasis among criminologists, particularly with respect to the phenomenon of organized crime.     

GENDER,FEAR, AND PROTECTIVE HANDGUN OWNERSHIP*

Nonrecursive models which have been used to assess the potentially reciprocal relationship between fear of crime and handgun ownership may suffer on two accounts: (a) the use of “weak” instrumental variables: and (b) the measurement of household (versus personal) handgun ownership. Data from the 1980 NORC General Social Survey are used in this study to minimize these problems in examining the relationships among fear of crime, victimization, and protective handgun ownership among males and females. Significant effects of fear and victimization on personal gun ownership are found among men but not among women. These results are discussed in light of two concerns. First, earlier research is confirmed that finds gender differences in the factors influencing gun ownership. Second, a clear need is emphasized for further research addressing questions of both conceptualization and measurement in the study of fear of crime and its effects on protective handgun ownership.     

The Crime-Terror Continuum: Tracing the Interplay between Transnational Organised Crime and Terrorism

Increasingly since the end of the Cold War and the subsequent decline of state sponsorship for terrorism, organised criminal activities have become a major revenue source for terrorist groups worldwide. Building on the precedent set by narco-terrorism, as it emerged in Latin America in the 1980s, the use of crime has become an important factor in the evolution of terrorism. As such, the 1990s can be described as the decade in which the crime-terror nexus was consolidated: the rise of transnational organised crime and the changing nature of terrorism mean that two traditionally separate phenomena have begun to reveal many operational and organisational similarities. Indeed, criminal and terrorist groups appear to be learning from one another, and adapting to each other's successes and failures, meaning that it is necessary to acknowledge, and to understand the crime-terror continuum to formulate effective state responses to these evolving, and periodically converging, threats.     

LEARNING TO BE BAD: ADVERSE SOCIAL CONDITIONS,SOCIAL SCHEMAS,AND CRIME*

In this article, we develop and test a new approach to explain the link between social factors and individual offending. We argue that seemingly disparate family, peer, and community conditions lead to crime because the lessons communicated by these events are similar and promote social schemas involving a hostile view of people and relationships, a preference for immediate rewards, and a cynical view of conventional norms. Furthermore, we posit that these three schemas are interconnected and combine to form a criminogenic knowledge structure that results in situational interpretations legitimating criminal behavior. Structural equation modeling with a sample of roughly 700 African American teens provided strong support for the model. The findings indicated that persistent exposure to adverse conditions such as community crime, discrimination, harsh parenting, deviant peers, and low neighborhood collective efficacy increased commitment to the three social schemas. The three schemas were highly intercorrelated and combined to form a latent construct that strongly predicted increases in crime. Furthermore, in large measure, the effect of the various adverse conditions on increases in crime was indirect through their impact on this latent construct. We discuss the extent to which the social‐schematic model presented in this article might be used to integrate concepts and findings from several major theories of criminal behavior.     

Crimes,arrests, and elections: Predicting winners and losers

Political candidates are frequently identified as being either “law and order” advocates or “soft” on crime; however, the importance of actual arrest and crime levels on election outcomes has not been examined empirically. One particular set of candidates for whom arrest and crime rates might be expected to be predictive is publicly elected law enforcement officials. Using 1976 Florida County Sheriff election data, this article examines the capacity for discriminating between winning and losing incumbent sheriffs by using county arrest and crime data in association with socioeconomic and political information. The findings show that a significant discrimination is obtained (significant = 0.009, canonical correlation = 0.59, and 76 percent of the counties were correctly classified) and that crimes and arrests are significant factors in determining the outcome of sheriff elections. The results indicate that although traditional political factors, such as party affiliation and number of terms in office, and socioeconomic factors, such as income, density, and unemployment rates, do well in discriminating winning from losing candidates, a sheriff-election model must also incorporate crime and arrest information, particularly information on murder and rape.     

Locking up my generation: Cohort differences in prison spells over the life course

Crime rates have dropped substantially in the United States, but incarceration rates have remained high. The standard explanation for the lasting trend in incarceration is that the policy choices from the 1980s and 1990s were part of a secular increase in punitiveness that has kept rates of incarceration high. Our study highlights a heretofore overlooked perspective: that the crime–punishment wave in the 1980s and 1990s created cohort differences in incarceration over the life course that changed the level of incarceration even decades after the wave. With individual-level longitudinal sentencing data from 1972 to 2016 in North Carolina, we show that cohort effects—the lingering impacts of having reached young adulthood at particular times in the history of crime and punishment—are at least as large (and likely much larger) than annual variation in incarceration rates attributable to period-specific events and proclivities. The birth cohorts that reach prime age of crime during the 1980s and 1990s crime–punishment wave have elevated rates of incarceration throughout their observed life course. The key mechanism for their elevated incarceration rates decades after the crime–punishment wave is the accumulation of extended criminal history under a sentencing structure that systematically escalates punishment for those with priors.     

少一些法律，多一些秩序——中西方犯罪预防策略的考察与批评

考察西方犯罪预防策略的变迁，可以发现法律和刑罚在预防策略中具有十分重要的位置。但是20世纪80年代以来，另一种预防思维已经产生，这就是针对犯罪诱因的多机构协作模式，其特点是强调社会政策而非刑罚，强调非法律方法而非法律方法，强调社会秩序而非犯罪控制。考察西方犯罪预防策略的优缺点，可为我国犯罪预防策略提供借鉴。