Vote-buying crime reports in Mexico: magnitude and correlates

Vote-buying is a significant problem in developing democracies. If reports of vote-buying crimes are high, results may be challenged by competing candidates in electoral courts, and violent political confrontation may erupt. Also, if not prosecuted, there is danger of vote-buying becoming a common feature of electoral processes. This study assessed the magnitude and correlates of vote-buying crime reports during the 2006 elections in Mexico. It made use of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) survey on the Protection of Federal Social Programs of 2006 (ENAPP). Results showed that 8.8% of the survey respondents nationwide who were not beneficiaries of any federal social program reported to have been offered something in exchange of their vote, that is, a vote-buying crime under the legislation of Mexico. Ordinal logistic regression showed five independent correlates of vote-buying crime reports: Years of schooling, Indian language speaking, municipal marginality, population size, and PRD versus PAN governed municipalities. The paper discusses the reasons and consequences by suggesting other aspects to consider for future research.     

Assessing temporal and weather influences on property crime in Beijing,China

Though the relationships between environment and crime have been studied a lot in many countries, this work is still a void in China. This work presents the study about how property crimes are influenced by the temporal and weather factors in China. With the crime data collected from police, the property crimes pattern by season of year, day of week and time of day are investigated firstly. Then the influence of the temporal variables—major holidays, school close days and weekends—and weather on the crimes are tested. The findings show that the robbery is significantly influenced by the temporal variables but has no correlations with weather, while burglary is not only affected by the temporal variables but also correlated with sun light hours.     

Incivilities in nonmetropolitan communities: The effects of structural constraints, social conditions, and crime

Guided by social disorganization theory and the emerging concept of collective efficacy, this study used three sources of data, including community surveys administered to 1,125 citizens nested in thirty-one residential units, and hierarchical modeling techniques to examine the effects of structural features and collective social processes, net of property crime (i.e., burglary) and citizen-level sociodemographic characteristics, on perceived incivilities (i.e., signs of physical decay and social disorder) in nonmetropolitan communities. The results showed that respondents living in economically disadvantaged geographic areas were significantly more likely to perceive their immediate surroundings in more negative terms (i.e., higher levels of incivilities). Respondents living in residential units characterized by higher levels of collective efficacy (i.e., a composite measure consisting of both cohesion and control), however, reported significantly fewer incivility problems. When assessed separately, social cohesion partially mediated the effects of economic disadvantage. The findings indicated that social disorganization theory generalizes to less densely populated, nonmetropolitan communities.     

Analysis of crime control strategies

An important problem in the selection of crime control programs is the choice among broad crime control strategies. This paper presents a Markov approach to the study of one important aspect of the analysis of crime control strategies—the characterization of the criminal population. Results indicate that persons with previous arrest records may commit a somewhat smaller proportion of the common crimes of robbery, burglary, larceny over $50, and assault than is indicated by rearrest data.     

The future of crime data

Criminology lacks sufficient data for many types of crime that are of great concern to society. This lack of data poses significant problems for determining whether resources are adequate for responding to these crimes or whether programmatic, legislative, or target-hardening efforts to prevent or reduce their occurrence are effective. Inadequate data about crime also produces a selective and incomplete narrative about crime that makes it easier for political and vested interests to exploit public concerns about crime for their own ends. In this address, I discuss what is needed to resolve these gaps and the ways in which criminologists can support a significant expansion of the crime data infrastructure. Such work is necessary to help ensure the future relevance of criminological research.     

Correlates of crime in Taiwan

Taiwan is known for rapid economic growth, but in 1988, the government ended 40 years of martial law, resulting in greater political and social freedoms. This paper explores the influence of economic, social, and political structures on crime in the Republic of China on Taiwan. A time series analysis examines the structural correlates of crime in Taiwan from 1964 to 1990. Both total crime and burglary/larceny rates are regressed on seven independent variables derived from various theoretical perspectives. The results support Hagan's power-control and Christie's crime-industry perspectives for total crime, while measures assessing lack of economic means and the economic deprivation were significant for burglary/larceny.     

The value of DNA material recovered from crime scenes

Abstract:  DNA material is now collected routinely from crime scenes for a wide range of offenses and its timely processing is acknowledged as a key element to its success in solving crime. An analysis of the processing of approximately 1500 samples of DNA material recovered from the property crime offenses of residential burglary, commercial burglary, and theft of motor vehicle in Northamptonshire, U.K. during 2006 identified saliva and cigarette ends as the main sources of DNA recovered (approximately 63% of samples) with blood, cellular DNA, and chewing gum accounting for the remainder. The conversion of these DNA samples into DNA profiles and then into matches with offender profiles held on the U.K. National DNA database is considered in terms of the ease with which Crime Scene Examiners can recover DNA rich samples of different sources, the location of the DNA at the crime scene, and its mobility. A logistical regression of the DNA material recovered has revealed a number of predictors, other than timeliness, that greatly influence its conversion into a DNA profile. The most significant predictor was found to be Crime Scene Examiner accreditation with offense type and DNA sample condition also being relevant. A similar logistical regression of DNA samples profiled that produced a match with an offender on the U.K. National DNA database showed no significance with any of the predictors considered.     

Value of DNA evidence in detecting crime

DNA material is now collected routinely from crime scenes for a wide range of offences and the timely processing of the DNA is seen as key to its success in investigating and detecting crime. An analysis of DNA material recovered from the volume crime offences of residential burglary, commercial burglary, and theft of motor vehicle in Northamptonshire, U.K., in 2004 has enabled the DNA to be categorized into seven sources. Further analysis using a logistical regression has revealed a number of predictors, other than timeliness, that greatly influence whether the DNA material recovered from a crime scene enables the crime to be detected. The results indicate that a number of these predictors are of statistical significance and may be just as relevant in determining whether DNA successfully detects the crime as the timeliness of the processing of the DNA material. The most significant predictor was found to be investigating officer accreditation with location, quantity, and type of DNA material at the crime scene also being relevant. Accreditation of the Crime Scene Examiner recovering the DNA material was found not to be significant. Consideration is given to where further emphasis is needed by the U.K. police service to maximize the opportunities to detect volume crime with DNA.     

Correlates of distance to crime in Mexico City

This study examined the correlates of distance to crime in a sample of 412 prison inmates in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. The study focused on crimes of theft and included a spatial analysis of the crime scene and the place of residence of the prison inmates. The data show a high clustering of criminals in a few neighbourhoods surrounding the old downtown area. Also, 38.8% of the sampled criminals committed their crimes in the same neighbourhood where they lived. Regression analysis revealed two independent and positive correlations of distance to crime: the monetary gain of the crime and if the prison inmates' intimate partner was also in jail. These findings suggest that, aside from the monetary rationale in the distance to crime function, the neighbourhood and family contexts deserve further research for a better understanding of criminal behaviour in Mexico.     

Fear of crime and criminal victimization: Gender-based contrasts

Extant research on the fear of crime and criminal victimization had generally found that women express greater levels of fear than men. Using survey data, this study contrasted perceptions of safety and the fear of personal and property victimization among male and female respondents. Specifically considered was the relationship between demographic characteristics, fear facilitators, fear inhibitors, neighborhood context, and crime-related fear. Results indicated some gender differences in the influence explanatory variables had on fear, although not all achieved statistical significance. For both gender groups, respondents' perceptions of their neighborhood as orderly and satisfactory had the largest effect on perceptions. Gender-based differences in the outcome of the analyses further supported that males and females experienced fear based upon different factors.     

The effects of deprivation on the time spent examining crime scenes and the recovery of DNA and fingerprints

DNA and fingerprint identifications are now accepted as an integral part of the investigation of a wide range of criminal offences from burglary and auto crime to serious and major crime. Despite this, there is still much variation between U.K. police forces in the recovery of fingerprint and DNA material from crime scenes. Analysis of burglary and auto crime data for Northamptonshire, U.K., during a 3-year period has enabled an examination of the relationship between the deprivation of the neighborhood in which the crime was committed and the level of service provided by Crime Scene Examiners. The results indicate that the time spent examining a crime scene for forensic evidence is not affected by the deprivation of the neighborhood. Further, there is no statistical significance between deprivation and the recovery of fingerprints from the crime scene. The relationship between deprivation and DNA recovery is, however, statistically significant with DNA being recovered more frequently from less deprived neighborhoods.     

The socioeconomic and demographic determinants of crime in Iran (a regional panel study)

The raising trend both in violent and property crime are of major concern in Iran. Using a panel data modeling (province wide), the paper provides an econometrics assessment of the relationship between crime against properties and violent crimes as functions of deterrent, social, economic and demographic factors in Iran, in the framework of Becker-Ehrlich crime supply theory. The findings indicate that, although deterrence hypothesis is not confirmed for burglary and assault, it explains the variations of murders and threats. Economic factors play key role in burglary and threat explanation, but they do not affect willful murders, however, Literacy explains both murders and threats. Average of families’ income is explored as a deterrent factor for crime against properties.     

Risk-based crime statistics: A forecasting comparison for burglary and auto theft

A major criticism of official statistics on crime is that they use inappropriate bases for computing rates. Here we investigate whether computing crime rates that contain in their denominators the number of exposures to risk of a specific event (e.g., residential burglary and auto theft) provides more accurate forecasts than employing the traditional FBI denominators as a base (e.g., the number of auto thefts and burglaries per 100, 000 persons living in the United States). Single equation, macrodynamic structural models are fitted to both the “traditional” and “alternative” forms of computing auto theft and burglary rates over the twenty-seven-year period from 1947–1974, in order to determine how well they perform on statistical and substantive grounds over the estimation period. Ex-post forecasts of the 1975–1979 observed crime rates, used to gauge the accuracy of these models, reveal few differences between the two kinds of rates in terms of how well they forecast. Both types of rates forecast well with the exogenous variables employed here and lead to similar substantive conclusions. The forecasts of the “traditional” rates are consistently, but only slightly, more accurate than those of the “alternative” rates (in most cases the differences are less than 1 percent). It is argued that the criticism of official data may be overstated and that little benefit accrues from the modification of the rate base for some purposes.     

Self-reported crime rates of women prisoners

This paper presents findings from the first study of female prisoners' self-reports of criminal activity. Using the criminal career paradigm to frame the analysis, self-reported estimates of crime participation and frequency rates were examined for eight felony crimes. Important similarities between women and men were found in overall patterns of crime. Specifically, a small proportion ofboth women and men described committing a large portion of the total crimes reported. These data also suggest that women and men are similar in violent crime participation — a finding that varies from the current literature. Once active in a crime type, women and men committed assault, theft, and forgery at significantly different rates; no gender differences were found in the annualized frequency rates of burglary, robbery, motor vehicle theft, fraud, and drug dealing. However, although statistical differences were not found in the overall frequency of drug dealing, specific patterns of drug dealing reflected considerable gender variation, with a larger proportion of the female sample committing very frequent (daily) drug dealing activity. The findings reflect the value of the criminal career paradigm for the study of gender differences. Future research should include largescale quantitative designs that allow detailed analyses of correlates of the distinct criminal career dimensions.Points of view are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Justice.This research was funded in part by the National Institute of Justice, Grant 87-IJ-CX-0048.     

Narcomessages as a way to analyse the evolution of organised crime in Mexico

Drug-related homicides in Mexico have increased to levels never before seen and organised crime has evolved accordingly, becoming more fragmented and diverse. This work analyses the evolution of organised crime and drug-related violence in Mexico by examining how drug trafficking organisations (DTOs) communicate through the messages left next to executed bodies from 2007 to 2011. Results suggest that the use of narcomessages has changed and developed in parallel with the evolution of organised crime. In the beginning, DTOs used their victims merely to position themselves. Over time, as the organisations became stronger, they began to direct and sign their narcomessages. By 2009, rivalries were firmly entrenched between several criminal groups, even while the increasing violence led to the creation of new groups with the stated purpose of defending citizens. The evolution of organised crime is observed by the fragmentation of existing groups, the consolidation of new alliances, and the creation of new groups.     

Explaining fear of crime in Queensland

A model to explain fear of crime in Queensland is developed and fitted to data from the 1991 Queensland Crime Victims Survey. Fear of crime is measured from the answers to the question about respondents' feelings of safety when walking alone in their area after dark. The results suggest that factors such as gender, age, poverty, educational level, labor force status, level of incivility in the area, perceived amount of crime in the area, and neighborhood cohesion all make an impact on fear of crime in a way that is consistent with the theory. The results also show that fear of crimein Queensland is explained by very concrete factors that can be subject to intervention and policy formulation by relevant bodies.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government Statistician's Office or the Queensland Government.     

Trace DNA success rates relating to volume crime offences

In this study, 252 trace DNA samples (from handled surfaces) from 201 burglary, robbery and drugs cases were compiled to assess success rates and to interpret the value of trace DNA evidence in volume crime investigations. The average amount of DNA recovered from the trace DNA samples collected was 1.7 ng. Full or major (12 or more alleles) profiles were recovered from 14% of samples. Samples from firearms and burglary points of entry were the least successful. Mixtures were recovered from 21% of samples, presenting a case for the collection of more elimination profiles to enable more samples to be used for database purposes. The research highlighted the difficulties in collecting data relating to the success rates of samples. Computerised automation of this process would be extremely beneficial in the assistance of policy development, method application, training, and investigative usefulness.     

Welfare and property crime

In 1996 the U.S. federal government enacted a welfare reform bill aimed at reducing public assistance to the poor. This legislation may have implications for future levels of property crime. In this study we examine whether differences in levels of AFDC assistance and rates of welfare participation among 406 large metropolitan counties affected variation in burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Regression analyses controlled for the potential effects of family structure, divorce, unemployment, and a number of other variables. The results confirmed links between welfare and property crime suggested by strain, social support, and a version of social disorganization theory. Both monetary assistance levels and participation rates were associated negatively with all property crimes.     

Juror decision making for juveniles tried as adults: the effects of defendant age,crime type,and crime outcome

This study examined the influences of the crime type (person or property) and the crime outcome (mild or severe) on mock jurors’ verdict and sentencing decisions for adult defendants and juvenile defendants tried as adults. Jurors read a trial summary depicting a defendant charged with aggravated robbery or second-degree burglary. The crimes had either mild or severe damage inflicted on the person or property, and the defendant's age was presented as 14 or 24. Neither the defendant age nor the crime outcome affected jurors’ verdicts; however, jurors were more likely to convict a defendant charged with a crime against a person. Jurors recommended longer sentences for an adult defendant, a defendant charged with a crime against a person, and a defendant charged with a crime with a severe outcome. The discussion explored these outcomes and the role of bias in jurors’ perceptions of defendants.     

Explaining crime for a young adult population: An application of general strain theory

Most research informed by general strain theory (GST) concentrated on the young, particularly adolescents. Using data from the National Youth Survey (NYS) Wave 7, in which respondents were asked about their offending when they were ages twenty to twenty-nine, a model of young adult offending was estimated that incorporated variables reflecting strain, as well as control variables related to differential association and control theories and a lagged measure of offending to account for unmeasured dispositional factors. Results revealed that indicators of strain had significant effects on property and violent offending. In analyses of the role of depression, selected forms of strain were related to depression, and depression affected offending for males but not females. Taken as a whole, these findings demonstrated that GST, which was advanced as a general theory of crime, made an important contribution to the understanding of criminal offending among young adults.