The December 1998 elections in Taiwan

The 5 December 1998 elections in Taiwan mark the first time that the national city mayoral elections and Legislative Yuan elections were held simultaneously. There was an increase in the number of candidates and seats for the Legislative Yuan election compared to the 1995 election; the Legislative Yuan sits for a three-year term. The mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaoshiung were the second direct popular elections featuring two well-known incumbents and two tough challengers vying for the four-year post. All Taiwanese elections in the 1990s were seen as referendums on the fate of the long-ruling Kuomintang, but many political commentators saw the 1999 elections as a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the presidential election in 2000.     

Moderator or Manipulator? How International–Local Relations Emerged as a Function of UN Authority-Building in Cambodia

The success or failure of international peacebuilding missions is predominantly evaluated in reference to interveners’ ability to exercise their mandated authorities. To test the value of an empirically based analysis of authority-building processes in the course of such missions the article turns to the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC, 1992–1993). In order to safeguard the country’s stability many supported the idea of holding presidential elections in addition to the ones for the Constituent Assembly forming the new government. To organize such unforeseen elections UNTAC would have had to change its mandate as determined by the Paris Peace Accords (PPA). Based on extensive archival research the paper analyses the debate surrounding this proposal as a series of legitimacy claims that were selectively recognized and rejected. The article concludes that evaluations of peacebuilding missions are indeed too focused on interveners’ authority to decide, while neglecting or underestimating challenges to their authority to interpret. This fosters a false sense of control over the direction of political processes.     

War Chests as Precautionary Savings

I present a model of campaign spending and saving in repeated elections which yields empirical implications on the creation of war chests. As previous studies disagree whether war chests deter potential challengers from running against incumbents, I present an alternative model that intentionally excludes deterrence as a motivation and formalizes under what circumstances (if any) a war chest would be created for savings. The model predicts that an incumbent creates a war chest when she faces a weaker challenger, i.e. as precautionary savings for future elections. The model yields several other predictions of incumbent fund-raising, spending, and saving behavior. Using incumbents from 1982–1998 U.S. House elections, I find strong empirical support for the predictions of the model.     

The single transferable vote and ethnic conflict: The evidence from Northern Ireland

There has been a long-running debate amongst constitutional engineers between those who favour the proportional representation of parties (usually via PR-Closed List systems) and post-election power-sharing (Lijphart) and those who favour attempting to induce pre-election inter-ethnic ‘vote-pooling’ (Horowitz) as a more effective and stable method of governing divided societies. Less attention has been paid to the fact that other options are available. A leading candidate amongst these is the Single Transferable Vote (STV), a non-categorical ordinal ballot system that may be capable of combining the essential ‘fairness’ of proportionality with the centripetal benefits of some inter-ethnic vote-pooling. Northern Ireland is the only divided society with extensive experience of STV elections. This paper examines the empirical evidence before and after the 1998 Belfast Agreement by examining the operation of the electoral system at the Northern Ireland Assembly elections of 1982, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The main findings are that prior to the 1998 Agreement inter-ethnic vote-pooling in Northern Ireland was very close to zero. Afterwards (1998–2007) terminal transfers from the moderate unionist UUP to the moderate nationalist SDLP averaged 32 per cent (and 13 per cent in the opposite direction). Although most transfers clearly remain within ethnic blocs, these inter-ethnic terminal transfers are a change with the past and suggest that STV may be an appropriate electoral system choice for some divided societies.     

Gubernatorial elections and attitudes toward the police: State elections as focusing events

Traditional views hold that citizens’ attitudes toward the police are driven by local concerns. We contend that public attitudes toward the police are also responsive to systematic and periodic state-level political factors. We show that state elections as a focusing event alter periodically the determinants of attitudes toward the police. Using an ordered logistic regression model and data from national public policy surveys from 1998 and 1999, we find that gubernatorial elections have a significant effect on the state/police relationship. State elections create conditions that separate the bureaucratic and partisan functions of the state government. In turn, the bureaucratic performance of the state government is less related to police approval, while partisan contestation for control of the governor office (control of the state) is significantly and positively related to police approval. During gubernatorial election years, attitudes toward the state government account for more of the variation in police attitudes.     

Reshaping government at the local level in Cambodia: with an example of urban water supply in Battambang

The transition from communism to a market economy poses many important questions concerning the appropriate role for the state, and the institutional capacity for service delivery and development. Cambodia, after the turmoil of the Khmer Rouge and a decade of Vietnamese-guided communism, has opted for a market economy. This article considers some of the problems facing the Cambodian government following the UN-backed elections. It outlines the system of government at national and local level, focusing on Battambang province and district. It considers the current debate there about centralization and decentralization, and examines the problems of finance at national and local levels. The case study on water supplies in Battambang town contrasts the public provision through the provincial water enterprise with private sector and community/NGO provision. Whilst there is an urgent need to increase water supply capacity and improve quality, there are institutional constraints in relation to the various providers. The development of the capacity of the local government to manage service delivery will be crucial. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Racial Contexts and White Interests: Beyond Black Threat and Racial Tolerance

The impact of racial context on white voters' support for black candidates in biracial elections has drawn considerable attention from students of racial politics. Two major theories—black threat and social interaction—use different geographic units and provide conflicting explanations. The present study seeks to contribute to the resolution of the controversy by empirically examining white crossover voting at both election unit and neighborhood levels. Twenty-nine mayoral and councilmanic district elections in New Orleans from 1977 to 1998 are investigated. The findings are not consistent with the hypotheses derived from black threat and social interaction theories. Rather than a reflection of racial tolerance or hostility, the changes in white crossover voting in different racial contexts may indicate a rational and strategic adjustment on the part of white voters when they face the prospect of black electoral success.     

The Responsible Party Government Model in House and Senate Elections

Responsible party government theory requires that voters hold parties electorally accountable for their performance in control of government. Existing literature suggests that voters do this only to a limited extent—holding the presidential party's candidates responsible for government performance on Election Day. While this method of voting may hold the executive accountable for his performance, it is not really an effective way to hold the party in control of Congress accountable for its performance. The method falls short particularly when Congress is controlled by a different party than the president, but also whenever a Congress controlled by the same party pursues policies different from the president's. Using surveys of voters leaving the polls in the 1990, 1994, and 1998 midterm congressional elections, this study tests whether voters' evaluations of Congress's job performance also affect their support for majority party candidates in House and Senate elections, during both unified and divided government .     

Die personalisierte Verhältniswahl unter den Bedingungen des gesamtdeutschen Parteiensystems. Eine Analyse der Entstehungsursachen von Überhangmandaten seit der Wiedervereinigung

Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, internationally known as the ‘German model’, has been recently criticized, since the 1994 Bundestag elections saw the genesis of several surplus mandates giving the CDU-FDP-government a safer majority in parliament. Due to this institutional effect, a lot of political scientists and lawyers have argued that the electoral system is no longer in conformity with the constitutional principle of electoral equality. From the perspective of empirical political analysis, two important aspects have not been taken into account in this debate. First, the complex relationship between different factors causing surplus mandates have not been analysed in a systematic-comparative manner. Second, the literature does not explain why so many surplus mandates have appeared in all national elections since 1990 whereas almost none were produced in Bundestag elections before the reunification. This study analyses the genesis of surplus mandates having appeared in the three German Bundestag elections since reunification (1990–1998). In contrast to monocausal explanations it confirms the hypothesis that in the present political context almost all surplus mandates result from complex relationships between generally known explanatory variables. Furthermore, the empirical analysis shows that the genesis of surplus mandates is not only caused by particularities of electoral districting in certain Bundesländer, but also by politico-structural differences between East and West Germany.     

The September 2013 Regional Elections in Russia: The Worst of Both Worlds

The September 2013 elections in the regions of Russia resulted in victories of the major pro-government party, United Russia, in 16 regional legislative elections, and brought success to incumbent chief executives in eight gubernatorial elections. However, the apparent recovery of United Russia from the trauma of the 2011 national legislative elections stemmed not so much from its increased popularity in the electorate, but rather from its ability to engage in manipulative vote-splitting strategies against the opposition. The rules of candidate nomination in gubernatorial elections were so restrictive that most of these elections could not be characterized as truly competitive.     

Elite behaviour and citizen mobilisation

This article studies the relation between self-serving elite behaviour and citizen political participation. It uses a fixed effects approach to analyse the association between portfolio investment in tax havens and voter turnout, using data from 213 parliamentary elections in 65 countries for the period 1998–2014. For well-functioning democracies a positive relation between the use of tax havens and voter turnout is found, suggesting that self-serving elite behaviour is associated with citizen political mobilisation rather than voter apathy. The estimated relationship is stronger in the period after the 2008 economic crisis, when elite behaviour was a particularly salient issue.     

Challenges of managing local elections in transitional and developing countries: an illustrative essay

The purpose of this investigation into local elections in developing and transitional countries is to highlight typical challenges to the management of local elections, emphasizing the difficulties that appear to be peculiar to local as opposed to national elections; and help explain why they often turn out to be more difficult to manage than national elections, are of less interest to the public, and often less satisfactory in outcome. It gives attention first to differentiating between categories of subnational elections, and then deals with a number of problems faced in local elections. These are size, scale and complexity of managing such elections, lack of public interest, potential for local manipulation, challenges to fair or adequate media coverage and campaign finance arrangements. The article sets out to challenge simplification and optimism about local elections in developing and transitional societies. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 1998 German Federal Election

The federal election held in Germany on 27 September 1998 marked the end of the Kohl era. It was one of the closest-fought post-war elections, which made the result difficult to predict and the election evening extremely exciting. In the event the ruling Christian Democrats recorded their worst result since 1949, a sitting federal chancellor, Helmut Kohl, was voted out of office for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic and the main opposition party, Germany's Social Democrats, became the largest party in parliament for only the second time since the war.     

The September 2015 Regional Elections in Russia: A Rehearsal for Next Year's National Legislative Races

The September 2015 elections in the regions of Russia resulted in victories for the major pro-government party, United Russia, in 11 regional legislative elections and brought success to incumbent chief executives in 21 gubernatorial elections. The performance of United Russia was better than in the previous series of regional elections, which is particularly important given that in many respects, the 2015 regional elections served as a rehearsal for the 2016 national legislative races. The results of the elections generally attested to the efficiency of political and institutional manipulation tools developed by the Russian authorities in recent years.     

The social sub-optimality of competitive elections

One of the common normative assumptions about elections is that competitive elections are inherently good, and non-competitive elections are problematic. This paper challenges that assumption. At the level of individual elections, competitive elections produce either sub-optimal results or trivially optimal results, but competitive elections are never uniquely optimal. In aggregation, competitive elections for a set of offices are inherently sub-optimal. From a procedural perspective, the circumstances in which competitive elections are appropriate are rare, and from a diagnostic perspective, we cannot conclude that there are problems in the electoral system based on a lack of competition. In the context of social choice theory, competitive elections are not inherently good.     

First-time boost beats experience: The effect of past eligibility on turnout

Recent findings from the US indicate a clear positive causal effect of past eligibility on voting in subsequent elections. Based on individual-level register data from four elections held in Denmark and Finland, we find that past eligibility either decreases voting propensity or has a zero effect among young voters. The hype associated with the first elections thus appears to cancel out the habit among young adults in countries where the institutional barriers against voting are weak. Moreover, differences across the types of elections can be noted. The negative effect of past eligibility is strongest in elections characterized by low saliency, implying that high-salient elections mobilize all voters equally and therefore narrow the gap between first and second-time eligible voters.     

The economic model of voter participation: A further test

The central hypothesis of the economic model of voter participation was put to an empirical test. It was found that the coefficient of population size, which represents the subjective probability of affecting election results, is negative and significant in municipal local elections, but insignificant in national Knesset elections. Therefore, this variable is unable to represent subjective probability in the latter case.It was suggested that the economic model is more relevant to local elections than to Knesset elections. The empirical results revealed that the regression coefficients of municipal elections that took place separately from Knesset elections fit the expected outcome of the economic model whereas when municipal elections were held simultaneously with the Knesset election this did not hold true.     

Motivating the European voter: Parties,issues and campaigns in European Parliament elections

Voters behave differently in European Parliament (EP) elections compared to national elections because less is at stake in these ‘second‐order’ elections. While this explains the primary characteristic of EP elections, it has often led to a conflation of distinct motivations for changing behaviour – namely sincere and protest voting. By distinguishing these motivations, this article addresses the question of when and why voters alter their behaviour in EP elections. In addition, it argues that the degree of politicisation of the EU in the domestic debate shapes the extent to which voters rely on EU, rather than national, considerations. These propositions are tested in a multilevel analysis in 27 countries in the 2009 EP elections. The findings have important implications for understanding why voters change their behaviour between different types of elections.     

The impact of motivational and contextual factors on turnout in first- and second-order elections

Based on voter survey from European election study 2009, we examine the impact of one individual-level motivational factor, i.e. interest in politics, and its interactions with institutional and contextual factors such as compulsory voting, electoral competition and the number of parties on participation in 2009 EP elections and previous national elections. The results show that political interest is more closely connected to turnout in second-order elections which are usually considered less salient. Correspondingly, also the contingent effect of compulsory voting and competition is more evident in EP elections. While compulsory voting substantially decreases the turnout gap between the most and least politically attentive voters in both types of elections, the moderating effect of competitiveness is found only in EP elections.     

Forensic Science for Cambodian Justice

¹Cambodia is universally associated with its killing fields– a horrific inheritance from the Khmer Rouge era. Whilstmass grave evidence from that era is referred to in historyand social science publications on Cambodia, it has not featuredin a legal context to date. The establishment of the ExtraordinaryChambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) creates an opportunityfor a review of this evidence 30 years after the events. Thosealleged to be accountable for Cambodia's killing fields arefinally being brought to justice. The question is whether thiswill occur with or without forensic science evidence from themass graves. This article explores the reasons for using forensicscience in the Cambodian context and outlines its potentialfor legal proceedings. Drawing on relevant literature in theforensic and legal areas, the article provides a brief outlineof the legal context created by the ECCC and examines variousprojects that have recorded evidence relating to the mass graves.Employing an analysis of semistructured, in-depth interviewswith forensic and legal experts as well as representatives fromthe ECCC and the Documentation Center of Cambodia (DC-Cam),the article explores the value of forensic science for the ECCC,including its impact on humanitarian issues in Cambodia.