COUNTING CRIME BOOMS AMONG NATIONS: EVIDENCE FOR HOMICIDE VICTIMIZATION RATES, 1956 TO 1998*

Constructionists argue that crime booms are rare, modernizationalists predict that booms have been limited to industrializing nations, and globalizationalists claim that booms are universal among nations since World War II. We define crime booms as rates that increase rapidly and exhibit a positive sustained change in direction and use econometric methods to test for booms with homicide victimization rates for 34 nations, 1956 to 1998. Twelve nations satisfied our criteria for booms—too many to support constructionists, but too few to support globalizationalists. In support of modernizationalists, 70% of industrializing nations qualified as having booms, but fewer than 21% of industrialized nations did. Future research should explain industrializing nations that do not experience booms and industrialized nations that do.     

TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

CRIMES,CRIME RATES,ARRESTS, AND ARREST RATIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DETERRENCE THEORY*

The relationship between crimes and arrests is one of the central issues in deterrence theory. There are several conceptual difficulties in attempting to assess whether arrests deter crimes or the number of crimes determine the number of arrests. These problems are compounded when rates are used to measure both variables. The issue is whether criminals respond to arrests or the police respond to changes in crime. The present analysis compares regression results when the variables are measured both as rates and raw numbers for three offenses: homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results indicate that arrests follow crimes. This suggests the need to reexamine some studies that argue that criminals’perceptions of arrest rates are an indication of deterrence.     

A REVIEW OF PROGRAMS DESIGNED TO PREPARE PARENTS FOR CUSTODY AND VISITATION MEDIATION

Mediation orientation programs are an increasingly common resource for parents preparing to mediate custody and visitation disputes. In this paper, we review empirical studies on program effectiveness and describe a range of programs in the U.S. Most are brief and psychoeducational in nature, focusing on the mediation process and the effects of conflict on children. Programs typically provide information through reading materials, slides, and videos, either in a group setting or online. Few evaluate program effectiveness. We offer suggestions for program evaluation and introduce an assessment‐based framework for providing individualized services for parents. Key Points for the Family Court Community

• ? Few Mediation Orientation programs have been empirically evaluated.
• ? Useful research designs would include (1) assessing participants both before and after the program and (2) comparing program participants to non‐participants.
• ? The psychoeducational components of Mediation Orientation programs may need to be tailored for low‐ and high‐conflict couples.

     

IMPLEMENTING A LEGISLATIVE MANDATE FOR SERVICES AND COORDINATION TO CALIFORNIA'S COURT-CONNECTED FAMILY MEDIATION AND CONCILIATION COURTS

This article describes the implementation of landmark legislation in California that provided for services and statewide coordination of family mediation and conciliation courts in California. The article describes the overall management design and its underlying principles, projects, and the five major statewide areas of services.     

LESSONS FOR THE US SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL ARBITRATION： A RESPONSIVE EMPIRICAL EXPLORATION OF ARBITRATION AND OMBUDSMAN SERVICES

The United States largely relies on a system of arbitration to handle retail consumer financial disputes. This approach has undergone significant challenges in recent yearsparticularly in light of recent abuses of consumer credit arbitration mechanisms. This paper reports on the result of a non-randomized smalLn survey which we label the ＂Financial Dispute Study＂ aiming at evaluating the relative effectiveness of two major approaches to financial dispute resolution -- arbitration and ombudsman services. Nearly a hundred survey questionnaires were distributed to financial dispute resolution practitioners throughout the world. A total of forty-eight arbitrators and ombudsmen from East Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa responded. In the Study the participants were asked how practitioners viewed the level of satisfaction, settlement rate and perceived increase or decrease in the use of the given method of financial dispute resolution -- whether arbitration or ombudsman service.     

EXAMINING THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF AGGREGATION BIAS FOR MULTILEVEL STUDIES OF NEIGHBORHOODS AND CRIME WITH AN EXAMPLE COMPARING CENSUS TRACTS TO OFFICIAL NEIGHBORHOODS IN CINCINNATI*

Different operational definitions of neighborhood boundaries could generate differences in empirical relationships between ecological dynamics and crime. As a call for research on whether aggregation bias is an issue for related studies, this note compares bi‐level models predicting re‐arrest for domestic violence with census tracts versus officially defined city neighborhoods as macro units. Results indicate that both types of units generate the same substantive findings at the aggregate and individual levels of analysis. Similarities also exist between these results and those from previous multilevel studies of crime and victimization despite differences in the aggregate units across studies (including block groups).