Are lions democrats? The impact of democratization on economic growth in Africa, 1980–2010

If we look back at the past two decades, timing seems to point to a close connection between democratic reforms and economic growth in sub-Saharan states. Most countries in the area introduced multiparty politics and made dramatic – if incomplete – democratic progress between 1990 and 1994. Quite strikingly, it is exactly from 1994 to 1995 (and particularly from 2000) that the region began to undergo a period of significant economic progress. Because of the undeniable temporal sequence experienced in the region – that is, first political reforms, then economic growth – some observers pointed to a nexus between democratic progress and economic performance. But is there evidence in support of a causal relationship? As of today, no empirical research has been conducted on the democracy–growth nexus in the early twenty-first century's so-called “emerging Africa”. To fill this gap, we discuss the different arguments claiming an economic advantage of democracies, we present our theoretical framework and carry out an empirical analysis of the growth impact of political regimes in 43 sub-Saharan states for the entire 1980–2010 period. Our findings confirm that African countries, many of which had long suffered the combination of authoritarian rule and predatory practices, derived some economic dividends from democratic progress.     

东亚与欧美政党在民主化中的作用

本文以政党在民主化过程中的基本作用为起点，在与欧美政党相比较的基础上阐述了东亚工业化国家的政党自20世纪80年代以来在民主化过程中的作用。指出尽管政党变迁的路径各有不同，但全方位型政党及其代表性功能已经成为政党发展的重要趋势，东亚只有发展起具有一定群众性和代表性的全方位型政党才能在民主巩固过程中发挥重要作用。同时，有一个相对自由的宪政环境对于形成既有竞争性又有包容性的政党体制是不可或缺的，这是政治民主化稳定发展的重要前提。     

印度尼西亚伊斯兰教政党的崛起及其发展前景

伊斯兰教政党的崛起是后苏哈托时代印度尼西亚政局出现的重要变化之一,标志着印尼政党制度进一步走向完善和成熟。但由于历史和现实种种因素的影响,在未来短时间内伊斯兰教政党还不太可能在该国政治舞台上发挥主导作用。本文分析了印尼伊斯兰教政党的发展历程和未来前景,对其在印尼政治民主化进程中的影响和作用进行了初步探讨。     

Transition modes and post-transition inter-party politics: Evidence from Spain (1977–82) and Argentina (1983–89)

This article tests whether the mode of transition from authoritarian rule affects the competitiveness of inter-party politics in the post-transition democratic regime. It draws on a six-year study of the degree of cross-party collaboration in the legislative arena immediately following the Spanish (1976/77) transition by pact and the Argentine (1982/83) transition by collapse. The study finds that the nascent democracy in Spain experienced more collaborative inter-party politics than the new Argentine democracy, which is consistent with the democratization literature. After discussing the constitutional structure and gravity of economic crisis as alternative explanations of the degree of inter-party competitiveness, the study concludes that the mode of transition is an essential explanatory variable. It also identifies the causal mechanisms that may explain the link between the mode of transition and post-transition inter-party competitiveness, namely the opportunities for political learning, the patterns of political elite continuity and the military's role in the transition process.     

Does Democratization Reduce the Risk of Military Interventions in Politics in Africa?

This article investigates whether there is an association between a trajectory of political liberalization, democratization, and military interventions. In what is arguably the ‘least likely case’ region in the world, this study analyzes the experience of 55 regimes in Africa between 1990 and 2004 and finds a striking regularity. Liberalizing, and in particular democratic, regimes have a significantly different track record of being subjected either to successful or failed military interventions. The analysis suggests that democratic regimes are about 7.5 times less likely to be subjected to attempted military interventions than electoral authoritarian regimes and almost 18 times less likely to be victims of actual regime breakdown as a result. Through an additional case study analysis of the ‘anomalous’ cases of interventions in democratic polities, the results are largely strengthened as most of the stories behind the numbers suggests that it is only when democratic regimes perform dismally and/or do not pay soldiers their salaries that they are at great risk of being overthrown. Legitimacy accrued by political liberalization seems to ‘inoculate’ states against military intervention in the political realm.     

The reform-security dilemma in democratic transitions: the Turkish experience as model?

In considering the future of budding Middle Eastern democracies, past experience and scholarship show that a possible outcome for even the most “successful” ones is some form of imperfect democracy. Based within the literature on democratic transitions and hybrid regimes, this article explores possible factors leading to such outcomes. It focuses in particular on reform/security dilemmas, and the resulting evolution of dual state structures, in which an unelected and often authoritarian state establishment coexists with democratic institutions and practices, for example, in countries like Russia, Iran, or Pakistan. Much of the literature views such duality as an impasse, and thus considers these countries as trapped within this “hybridness” – discouraging news both for currently defined “hybrid regimes” and for countries like Egypt and Tunisia, which are now launching democratization processes. To better understand the nature and evolution of such regimes, this article looks at the case of Turkey, first tracing the rise and consolidation of the Turkish inner state, generally equated with the Turkish armed forces. It then looks at the apparent diminishing and integration of the inner state through pacts and coalitions among both civilian and military elements, and calls into question whether the pessimistic view of permanent illiberalness is inevitable.     

Civil Society,Democratization, and Foreign Aid: Civic Engagement and Public Policy in South Africa and Uganda

Drawing on comparative research in South Africa and Uganda, this article examines how far civil society organizations influence government policy and legislation and extend citizen participation in public affairs. The article also considers how far external funding influences policy engagement and outcomes. The main finding is that few civil society organizations have either a consistent level of engagement in the policy process or make a significant difference to policy outcomes. The nature of internal governance practices in galvanizing citizens' voices and the relationship to the state and political parties are the most decisive factors in civil society organizations achieving policy influence. The article concludes that the capacity of civil society organizations to offer citizens a say in decisions and to enhance pluralism may be as important as their ability to influence policy and demand accountability from state actors.     

Does substantive democratization create more committed democrats? Surprising evidence from Africa

A growing body of evidence holds that citizens support democracy when they believe the regime has provided individual freedoms and political rights. Put simply, citizens develop legitimacy attitudes by learning about democracy. These findings, however, are based on citizens' evaluations of the procedural elements of democracy. Democratization also entails substantive reforms that likely impact legitimacy attitudes. This article provides the first test of how the success – and failure – of substantive democratization shapes legitimacy attitudes. Using data from the second round of Afrobarometer surveys, I find surprising results. Citizens who judge the regime to be more successful in substantive democratization are actually less likely to be committed democrats. I conclude with possible explanations of these surprising findings and reflect on the challenges for both future research and for the new democracies facing this situation.     

‘The unfinished business of democratization’: struggles for services and accountability in South African cities

At the end of July 2009, South African cities became the terrain of violent protests. Several reasons lay behind the social unrest, but protesters were particularly vocal in demanding basic services and houses, reminding the newly elected president of his electoral promises of delivering to the poor. This article analyses two of the most prominent post-apartheid social movements that in the past decade have been confronting the state on issues of services and accountability. These struggles reveal the limits of the unfinished democratization and the dysfunction that characterizes policy and decision-making processes at the local level. These movements are contributing through their existence and actions to the deepening of democracy by creating new spaces for political confrontation and participation that can influence local governance and enhance development.