Demography and democracy: the impact of youth cohort size on democratic stability in the world

The traditional explanations for the survival of democratic systems mostly include economic and cultural variables. Only rarely has attention been given to the age structure of a society. This article introduces a hypothesis involving the ‘youth bulge’ concept popular in conflict studies. It is hypothesized that democratic countries with proportionally large male youth cohorts are more likely to become dictatorships than societies with a smaller share of young men. A causal link between demography and democracy is assumed to exist because young men are the protagonists of virtually all violent political action as well as political extremism with a potential to threaten democracy. Strong evidence supporting the hypothesis is found using data for 110 countries in the period from 1972–2009.     

Beyond the fallacy of coup-ism: conceptualizing civilian control of the military in emerging democracies

It is consensus in the democratization literature that civilian control of the military is a necessary ingredient for democracy and democratic consolidation. However, there is considerable disagreement on what civilian control of the military exactly entails and there is a lack of solid theoretical arguments for how weak or absent civilian control affects democratic governance. Furthermore, a considerable portion of the research literature is captured by the fallacy of coup-ism, ignoring the many other forms in which military officers can constrain the authority of democratically elected political leaders to make political decisions and get them implemented. This article addresses these lacunae by providing a new conceptual framework for the analysis of civil–military relations in emerging democracies. From democracy theory it derives a definition of civilian control as a certain distribution of decision-making power between civilian leaders and military officers. Based on this definition, the authors develop a five-dimensional concept of civilian control, discuss the effects of weakly institutionalized civilian control on the quality of democracy and address the chances for democratic consolidation.     

Understanding the social construction of the democratic deficit in CSDP: a Foucauldian approach

Drawing upon the Foucauldian approach of governmentality, this article argues that the democratic deficit of the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) is the outcome of how governmental power flows in CSDP governance and more precisely within the governance practices of the policy. To support this argument, the narrative explores the secrecy/confidentiality, informality and normalisation of the exercise of governmental power in a concrete example of CSDP governance, the recent pooling and sharing initiative. The example shows that the official makers of CSDP pursue efficiency of governance to the detriment of the democratic quality of the policy, and this is related with the productive and expansive rationality of governmental power flowing in and between the EU institutions. Despite the fact that governmentality usually links to structural explanations, allowing limited space for the role of agency in politics, the article concludes with reflections on how the political agency of the governing EU political subjects contributes to the social construction of the democratic deficit of CSDP.     

Democracy,autocracy and the news: the impact of regime type on media freedom

Mass media is critical for the functioning of every contemporary political system. Thus, we can expect a variation in media freedom depending on the type of government since political regimes differ with regard to the political, legal and economic framework in which news coverage operates. This article investigates the effects of regime types, namely democracy and autocratic subtypes, on media freedom. It is argued that regime legitimation and governance are the driving forces behind diverging media policies in autocracies. From this theory, hypotheses regarding media freedom and regime type are derived and tested empirically, relying on statistical analyses that cover 149 countries over a period from 1993 to 2010. The empirical results demonstrate that democracies lead to significantly higher levels of media freedom than autocracies, with other things being equal. Within the autocratic spectrum, electoral autocracies, monarchies and military regimes have the freest media, whereas the most illiberal media can be found in communist ideocracies, where the ruling party holds a communication monopoly. Media freedom in personalist and non-ideological one-party regimes is on an intermediate level.     

Exploring the perceived influence of South African adolescents on product purchases by family communication type

Abstract

This article investigates the effect of family communication types on the perceived purchase influence of South African adolescents (13–18 years) across 34 product groups. The research builds on previous research in developed countries such as America and Israel, but represents only one of a few in a developing country such as South Africa that integrates family communication and consumer purchase behaviour theory. The article shows statistically significant differences in the perceived purchase influence of adolescents by family communication type for 13 of the 34 product groups investigated. From the inferential statistical analyses presented in the article, it is evident that the influence of adolescents in pluralistic families is far greater than in consensual, protective or laissez-faire families. This implies that adolescents’ influence in product purchases is likely to be greater as family communication becomes more open, and as unconstrained discussions on a wide range of topics with all family members are encouraged. This finding is particularly evident in the purchase of children's products (toys, clothing and footwear), family activities (take-away meals, snacks and outside entertainment), children's educational products/services (courses and schools), watches and personal jewellery, cosmetics, cell phones, reading matter, and gymnasiums, health, sport and social clubs. The outcome of the research indicates that the influence of South African adolescents has broadened and is no longer only relevant to children's products. This strengthening influence of children on product choices of South African families has clear implications for marketers who need to target this market segment. Knowledge of family communication patterns and how these impact on children's influence in actual product purchases presents a valuable opportunity for marketers to develop effective future marketing segmentation and communication strategies.     

IMF conditionality: An approach based on the theory of special interest politics

Financial assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other International Financial Institutions (IFIs) aims to help member countries reduce their economic policy distortions. Because these distortions are endogenously generated, it is important to understand how IFI assistance interacts with the domestic political economy. In this paper, we review recent models of IFI conditional assistance that are based on the theory of special interest politics (Grossman and Helpman 2001). In these models, governments adopt inefficient economic policies and instruments because of lobbying by interest groups. IFI assistance helps reduce these inefficiencies, at least under perfect and symmetric information, and provided IFIs are representative of the general public in creditor and debtor countries. Factors limiting the effectiveness of conditional assistance as an incentive system are also identified. These are related to information asymmetries, the potential for political instability in debtor countries, and the IFIs’ own financial solvency.

Developing political trust in a developing country: the impact of institutional and cultural factors on political trust in Ghana

Political distrust is often widespread in African countries, but the prospects for increasing trust are uncertain given the lack of research on the origins of political trust in the region. Using the 2013 NSS Survey in Ghana and employing hierarchical regression analyses, we develop a model of institutional trust based on insights from both cultural and institutional performance theories. The results clearly support the superiority of institutional performance theories while at the same time providing limited support for cultural explanations. National pride, however, does also substantially encourage institutional trust. This asks for future, cultural-specific studies on trust-building in developing countries trying to establish working institutions using more representative, cross-national, and longitudinal data.     

Influential News: Impact of Print Media Reports on the Fulfillment of Election Promises

Building on the mandate theory of democracy and literature on media coverage of elections, this article theorizes why information regarding party promises that is transmitted through the media could affect the former’s fulfillment. Utilizing a unique data set composed of 2,676 promises issued by 14 legislative parties over a 15-year period in post-communist Bulgaria, the study is among the first to longitudinally analyze the role of media in pledge fulfillment, while controlling for institutional and other explanations. The conclusions demonstrate that media reporting of election promises affects the fulfillment of pledges made by coalition parties, when more than one outlet has printed a promise, and under conditions of strong ideological divisions within the cabinet. Furthermore, the impact of media reporting is greater for pledges that do not otherwise have a high likelihood of being fulfilled.     

总体国家安全观视域下的国家安全学理论研究十年回眸

中国学界对国家安全学理论的研究可以追溯到20世纪90年代。2014年总体国家安全观提出以后,国家安全学理论研究有了根本遵循,标志着国家安全学理论研究进入新时代。2024年,在总体国家安全观提出十周年之际,中国学界对国家安全学理论的研究,形成了以总体国家安全观研究为先导、加快国家安全学及其学科理论研究和推进中国本土化国家安全学自主理论体系探究的新格局。总体国家安全观内涵不断丰富和深化,国家安全学研究对象和学科定位日益清晰明确,国家安全学理论本土化进一步彰显,国家安全学理论构建日趋完善,国家安全学一级学科建设稳步推进。虽然国家安全学一级学科建设起步较晚,国家安全学理论研究存在一些短板,但当今世界之变、时代之变和历史之变的步伐逐渐加快,中国面临的安全挑战前所未有,需要国家安全学理论研究有所作为,作出应有的历史贡献。为此,中国学界需要做“深”国家安全学基础理论研究,拓展国家安全学理论研究的厚度和深度;做“专”领域国家安全学理论研究,强化国家安全学理论研究的广度;做“强”工具国家安全学理论研究,凸显国家安全学理论研究的实效性。