The OSCE and ethnic conflicts in Estonia,Georgia, and Tajikstan: A search for sustainable peace and its limits

This article analyzes some of the experiences of the OSCE in Estonia, Georgia, and Tajikistan. Conflicts in these three countries followed the demise of the Soviet Union and had basic aspects in common: actual and potential border claims; the presence of a large number of national minorities whose ethnicity is shared with neighbouring kin‐ethnic states; as well as conflicting claims of national self‐determination and territorial integrity. By comparing and contrasting these cases, this article discusses the implications of the OSCE's approach and its limits in the context of the former Soviet Union, and offers some policy recommendations for the future OSCE's activities in this region. The central arguments are as follows: the OSCE has played a significant role in building a sustainable peace in the former Soviet Union where few European institutions have attempted to intervene; and that while being heavily influenced by Russian policies, the OSCE's activities in the CIS were not simple reflections of Russian interests.     

The OSCE's post-September 11 agenda,and Central Asia

With an enlarged membership and a wide agenda including politico-security matters, economic and environmental issues and human aspects, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) aims at promoting stability and democratisation in its area, fostering good governance. The September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 have prompted the organisation to reinforce its commitments with regard to the prevention of and combat against terrorism, as a primary goal in the pursuit of its main tasks of conflict prevention and management, and post-conflict rehabilitation. The institutional response of the OSCE has been translating its effort to address the new concerns while promoting its founding principles, both at headquarters and in the field. The extent to which the organisation's institutions and commitments are adequate to respond to the new challenges and promote good governance in the OSCE area are analysed. Are the OSCE principles, agreed commitments and elaborated post-September 11 agenda adequate to meet the many uncertainties and to build cooperation and security in the OSCE space? Is the OSCE prepared to respond effectively to the current challenges particularly with regard to Central Asia? Which means and what actions might the organisation pursue in the context of its new agenda? By matching words with action OSCE's contribution to global governance in Central Asia is clarified through assessing its means, activities and adequacy to meet old and new challenges.     

Embracing “embedded security”: the OSCE's understated but significant role in the European security architecture

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is perhaps the world's least-known major security organization. However, the same characteristic which puts the OSCE seemingly continually on the verge of irrelevance with respect to the other actors in European and global security is in fact what has allowed it to endure and is in fact its greatest asset. That is, the OSCE's distinct combination of modern and postmodern characteristics in both its composition and its activities allows it to create what can be called “embedded security”. Tracing the evolution of one particular set of decision-making rules embedded within a normative framework which questioned the fundamental meanings of “security”, and exploring present-day activities, this article reinterprets the OSCE in the light of this new model. In so doing, it re-contextualizes both the OSCE's origins and its contemporary relevance. Instead of a modernist, functional, rule-driven interpretation which situates the OSCE on the periphery in a crowded field, this explanation puts the OSCE at the centre of the postmodern and normative European security architecture.     

Russia and the OSCE: From High Hopes to Disillusionment

The subject of this article is the changing balance between Russia's positive and negative interests in the Conference on/Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE/OSCE) as these have evolved in relation to Western policies on the OSCE and European security relations in general. Parallel to the decline of positive Russian interests in the CSCE/OSCE, an increase in negative attitudes can be observed, most of which concern the OSCE's activities in post-Soviet countries. While the Soviet Union was traditionally a reliable supporter of the CSCE, the Russian Federation, which initially pursued the same policy, has lost most of its sense of ownership in the OSCE. This change in Russian attitudes is critical for the Organisation's future, for an OSCE without active Russian participation would lose much of its raison d'être.     

Europe's intergovernmental NGO: The OSCE in Europe's emerging security structure

The OSCE is little understood outside diplomatic circles, but has a unique and increasing role in encouraging European peace and stability. The article highlights the OSCE's historical development and its more recent role in the European security structure. The OSCE mission in Latvia, tracking the country's language and citizenship issue, is illustrative of the organization's unusual charter. A second section attempts to fix the OSCE within the context of contemporary international theory and the developing literature on nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). With a broad but thin mandate, the organization manages regime activity left over from NATO and EU disinterest or immobility and, with its extensive grassroot efforts at problem‐solving, functions much like an NGO. OSCE success may lie in the combination of regime and NGO attributes, allowing it to move easily both within and outside of formal governmental structures.     

Conflict Resolution through Democracy Promotion? The Role of the OSCE in Georgia

This article qualitatively and empirically analyses the OSCE's efforts to promote democracy after intra-state war in Georgia. This regional organization is rooted in a comprehensive approach to security that directly links security to democratic values. Therefore, the OSCE is a particularly appropriate subject for studying the issue of democracy promotion in the context of conflict-resolution processes. Georgia provides a difficult environment for such a goal. Given that its two secession conflicts are ‘frozen’, democracy can, especially in this context, be considered a well-suited means to indirectly contribute to conflict resolution. By contrasting the democratic development in Georgia with OSCE activities since 1992, this article will assess OSCE democracy promotion efforts. When these efforts are measured with regard to progress in peace and democratic quality, the effectiveness of external democracy promotion by the OSCE has to be called into question. However, the article argues that democratization is a long-term process in which internal factors play a decisive role. The OSCE, like other international organizations, can only reach its normative goals to the degree of the reform orientation and political will of the target state's government. The potential for impact is limited, but can be increased by commitment and context sensitivity.     

Sorting out the Conceptual Muddle: The Role of the Japanese Economy in the Asian Financial Crisis

Karel van Wolferen argues that, since Japan's political economy was the main factor in creating the circumstances that led up to the East Asian financial crisis, studies must focus on it to understand this event. The Japanese economy, which is here described as a war economy operating in peacetime, provided the model for East Asia's 'tiger economies' that imitated the Japanese government in its targeting of sectors for investment, especially the construction industry in the 1980s. These other East Asian economies proved more vulnerable to crisis than the Japanese economy because they were more open to foreign investment and did not have Japan's closely knit economic and financial networks and institutions. After presenting this preface to the crisis, van Wolferen then criticizes the current East Asian economic situation, in which international institutions continue to force the Western ideals of transparency and deregulation on most of the East Asian economies while permitting Japan to remain the least transparent economy of the entire region.     

Re‐evaluating US strategic priorities in the Caspian Region: balancing energy resource initiatives with terrorism containment

In the aftermath of September 11, US strategy has shifted in the Central Asian region from protecting the sovereignty of the southern post‐Soviet states to ensuring their stability in light of the dual impacts of energy development and the rising threat of Islamic terrorism. Although US–Russian cooperation has made strides, particularly concerning Russian acquiescence toward US and NATO military engagement in the region, geostrategic rivalry and conflicting economic goals have hindered a joint approach to initiatives regarding the region's energy development. While both agree on the goal of maximising Russian and Caspian gas and petroleum exports, US policy is increasingly prioritising Central Asian energy prosperity as a key factor in the region's ability to contain terrorism. Development of the region's energy resources has therefore become a critical US security concern. Yet, by failing to engage with Russia in a meaningful cooperation that could encourage Moscow to diversify its own energy export prospects, competition between the two powers is likely to reduce, rather than improve, the effectiveness of either in offering the Central Asian states the kind of support they need to strengthen their domestic profiles or withstand the incursion of terrorism.     

The European defence plans: Filling the transatlantic gaps

The geographic proximity of Central Asia to Russia, China, the Caucasus and the Caspian region, as well as to the Middle East, makes this oil and gas-producing region a crucial and ever-developing player in regional and global energy markets. The method by which Central Asian producers choose to develop their hydrocarbon resources and export infrastructure will have significant implications for the plans for diversification of oil and gas supplies of Europe, China and India, as well as for Russia's energy exports to Europe. It is still too early to tell whether the economic and political incentives are strong enough to promote cooperation between the various actors or whether the energy interests of these key external powers are so diverse as to clash in Central Asia.     

俄罗斯与中亚国家安全合作机制分析

安全合作是俄罗斯与中亚国家关系的关键性领域,对中亚地区安全态势及发展趋势具有关键意义。俄罗斯与中亚国家借助双边及多边安全制度,构建了军事同盟体系,并形成了完备的组织机构和决策模式。俄罗斯与中亚在共同使用军事设施、军事技术合作、联合军事演习和军事人才培养等方面展开具体的安全合作。俄罗斯与中亚国家安全合作机制的有效性受到权力结构、合法性与国内政治等因素的制约,其未来有可能向更为紧密的方向发展,对中亚地区安全发挥着长期的主导性作用。     

美国新中亚战略评析

美国公布新的中亚战略包含四方面调整,即将中亚地区视为独立的地缘政治板块、将阿富汗视为中亚一部分、明确将在中亚加强对俄罗斯和中国的遏制、重新界定美国在该地区的比较优势。新中亚战略的实施将会对中亚地区稳定和主要大国在该地区互动产生一定影响。但由于美国在实施该战略中投入力度有限、比较优势不明显,中亚国家不会轻易改变自身多元平衡外交政策、对阿富汗及其局势的认知与美有明显差异,以及美国在中亚地区的战略冒进可能引发大国反制,新战略的实施不会一帆风顺。     

The interplay of international institutions in Kosovo between convergence,confusion and niche capabilities

Abstract

This article examines the interplay of international institutions in Kosovo and aims at disentangling and explaining the emergence and persistence of this international ‘interim’ regime. In 1999, the UN mission to Kosovo (UNMIK) and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) were the leading institutions in the civilian area following NATO's deployment of Kosovo Force (KFOR). Following the failed status talks on Kosovo, the EU's rule of law mission (EULEX) and the establishment of an International Civilian Office (ICO) have been set up in addition for increasing institutional complexity. The article analyses how institutional complexity is emerging and what strategies international institutions are applying when confronted with policy overlap. The paper finds that the emergence of institutional complexity in Kosovo is largely a result of historical lock-in effects. International institutions have developed two dominant strategies to cope with dense institutional spaces. First, they show signs of a functional convergence and a coordinated pooling of resources. Second, institutions have developed niche competences to avoid competition.     

上海合作组织经济、安全领域合作有利于地区稳定与繁荣

上海合作组织经过10年的发展，已经成为中国与中亚地区最重要的多边合作机制之一，不仅使地区经济合作更加富有成效，安全领域的合作成果也日益丰富。2011年6月上合组织阿斯塔纳峰会签署的《上合组织十周年阿斯塔纳言》，对上合组织成员国之间的进一步深化合作，促进地区的稳定与繁荣，对巩固和发展中国与周边国家的政治、经济和安全联系具有更加重大的现实意义。     

Hizbollah's command leadership: Its structure,decision‐making and relationship with Iranian clergy and institution

Any analysis of the behaviour of the pro‐Iranian Hizbollah organisation in Lebanon requires both an understanding of the movement itself, in terms of its decision‐making apparatus and internal clerical factionalism, and the mechanisms of its institutionalised relationship with Iran and, to a lesser extent, Syria through military and civilian channels at work within Lebanon. This article argues that Hizbollah's behaviour is principally governed by the depth and allegiance of closely forged relationships between individual Hizbollah leaders and Iranian clergy as well as the adaptability of a particular Hizbollah leader to suit the movement's activity to specific requirements within Lebanon and in the region. As such, clerical factionalism within Hizbollah can be monitored by the ascendancy or demotion of clergymen over the leadership and is also a guide to the direction of the movement in Lebanon as well as to the affiliation and loyalty of Hizbollah's leadership with clerical factions and institutions in Iran.     

Central Asian Regional Security Complex: The Impact of Russian and US Policies

This paper aims to reveal the impact made by the Russian and US policies on the Central Asian regional security complex (RSC) in the 1990s and 2000s. It traces the evolution of post-Soviet Central Asia from a proto-complex to a fully fledged RSC, analysing major security trends and discovering the consolidation of the RSC's boundary, polarity and social construction. The analysis has not shown much divergence in the way US and Russian policies have influenced the Central Asian RSC. It is argued that Moscow and Washington have made a significant impact on the consolidation of the RSC's boundaries, with the effects of US and Russian policies on its polarity and social construction being rather limited.     

Hashim,Ahmed S. Insurgency and Counter-insurgency in Iraq

The paper argues that violent Uighur separatism and terrorism conforms in a number of important respects to the human security theory of terrorism, particularly in the realm of political and civil rights. However, it argues that impetus has been given to the various separatist organisations in the region by the development of interconnections between the largely internal aspects of China's policy of integration in the region and the wider Central and South Asian dynamic of Islamic radicalism since 1990.     

NATO,the EEC,Gibraltar, North Africa: Overlapping issues for Spain

Reversing the retreat of the Yeltsin era, Russia has returned to Central Asia proactively. Its presence is increasingly felt in the traditional–that is, security–field and in new fields of engagement, such as strategically-placed investment or construction of regionalism. The cultural and “civilisational” role has also gained more prominence. Moscow's policy reflects pragmatic opportunism, aimed at getting the utmost benefits for Russia from a region in which it holds many assets rather than at a revival of the former empire. There are limits however as to how far its engagement can go due to constraints posed by Central Asian realities and Russian domestic developments. So far, the advance has been greatly facilitated by the West's retreat, giving rise to perceptions of an unfolding “great game”, while in reality a record of both competition and cooperation between Russia, China and the West is a normal state of affairs. Although Central Asian elites find it easier to deal with Moscow in the current political climate, they view its assertive role with caution and may turn to a rival suitor should the price for the relationship with Russia become too high.     

Lessons from the Asian Economic Crisis: A View from South Korea

Ha and Kim present a new reading of the East Asian crisis, focusing particularly on South Korea's experience. They argue that previous studies have ignored the political environment that paved the way for such an event. Neoliberal economists, according to the authors, were so enamoured with the example of the 'Asian tigers' and the ideal of unregulated markets that they were blind to the many warnings of an ensuing disaster. Economic systems can thus no longer rest on such a free-market capitalist ideal where no one controls the global economy, but must instead have a secure political base. As the financial crisis has shown, such international anarchy must be checked by a new set of international institutions. While the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organisation did attempt to handle the crisis, it, along with Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), proved unable to do so. East Asia's leaders and theorists have been presented with the challenge of reforming this region's institutions and political orders in order to avoid another crisis, complete with all its social and political ramifications.     

Russia and the role of the OSCE in European security: a ‘Forum’ for dialog or a ‘Battlefield’ of interests?

Abstract

This essay explores Russia's Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) policy, by focusing on two questions. First of all, analysts have noted Russia's disinterest and obstructive policies towards the Organization. Thus, the question is what – if anything – does the Russian Federation still want from the OSCE? Secondly, does the OSCE still serve as a forum for dialog? These two issues are studied on the basis of rational institutionalism and realism. The essay demonstrates that Russia is still interested in the OSCE, but its policy has become more pragmatic, selective and instrumentalist. It includes obstructive and constructive strategies. At the same time, today the Russian Federation ascribes less significance to the Organization in European security. This is predetermined not only by its inability to push its interests through the OSCE, but also by the declining interest of other participating States in the Organization. The differences between OSCE participants have turned it into a battlefield of interests in many areas.     

Growing Pains at the OSCE: The Rise and Fall of Russia's Pan-European Expectations

After the dissolution of the USSR, the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) sought to contribute to the transformation of Russia into a democratic state abiding by the rule of law and by international law. The Yeltsin administration concurred and adopted a generally cooperative posture within the CSCE. However, when Moscow suggested (as a counter-move against NATO's enlargement projects) the elaboration of a legal pan-European security system, the CSCE—now rebaptised OSCE—responded by means of the Istanbul Charter for European Security (1999), an empty text by Russian standards. Feeling that its interests were no longer served, the Putin administration warned that without drastic reforms the Organisation would be ‘doomed to extinction’. In order to defuse the crisis, the OSCE adopted a number of reform measures. Overall, however, the reform process brought very little to a Russia whose obsession with equality of status is now better addressed through bilateral institutional channels with NATO and the EU. In the present circumstances, the fate of the OSCE depends on the political value that the West attaches to this organisation, as well as Russia's wisdom not to break the single European security organisation where its place and role are fully legitimate.