Measuring and comparing party ideology in nonindustrialized societies: taking party manifesto research to Africa

Despite a growing interest in African parties, no comparative analyses of African party manifestos have been undertaken to date. This study applies the Manifesto Research Group's (MRG/CMP) coding scheme to a complete set of manifestos in three countries. The study's main aim is to determine whether a research tool that has been seminal in the study of Western politics can be used to advance the study of political parties in nonindustrialized societies. In a first step, the article examines the extent to which African manifestos advance programmatic ideas. The results show great differences across parties and time. The study subsequently investigates how parties position themselves on a right–left spectrum; it further outlines which policy categories African parties stress most. Finally, it examines the stance of individual parties on specific policy issues. The study argues that the MRG coding scheme can contribute to a much more nuanced analysis of African parties.     

Ethnic politics and election campaigns in contemporary Africa: evidence from Ghana and Kenya

Why do some political parties in new democracies base their campaigns on promises of national public goods while others do not? Parties in new democracies often eschew programmatic policy proposals in favour of appealing to voters’ ethnic identities, distributing non-programmatic benefits, or emphasizing the personalities of their candidates. However, this is not universally the case. This article examines recent campaign strategies in two nascent democracies in Africa: Ghana and Kenya. The findings suggest that programmatic campaigning is much more common than is assumed, but that parties have different preferences for how much programmatic content they include in their campaigns. The article argues that differences in campaign strategies are largely due to differences in the composition of ethnic support for competing parties. Parties that draw a majority of their support from a single large ethnic group are more likely to develop campaign strategies based on programmatic, policy-based appeals in the form of specific proposals for national public goods than are parties with a more diverse ethnic base of supporters. I argue that these appeals serve as a pre-election commitment to counteract fears among the electorate of domination by the large ethnic core of the party.     

Researching urban poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

Poverty and the way in which it is researched are major preoccupations for many social scientists. This article presents different ways of researching urban poverty in sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on qualitative methods and the different ways in which these can be used to collect data. Examples are drawn from field research conducted in urban areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaïre) to illustrate the ways in which different research methods and techniques are used in the field, and ways in which a researcher might organise data collection.     

Ethnopolitical demography and democracy in sub-Saharan Africa

Ethnic fragmentation is largely presumed to be bad for democracy. However, many African countries belie this claim, as democracy has recently sprouted in several of its multiethnic states. We argue that African countries that have demographic patterns where the largest ethnopolitical group is at least a near-majority and is simultaneously divided into nested subgroups produce Africa's most democratic multiethnic societies. This large-divided-group pattern, which has gone largely unnoticed by previous scholars, facilitates transitions to democracy from authoritarian rule. The large group's size foments the broad-based multiethnic social agitation needed to pose a genuine threat to a ruling autocrat, while its internal divisions reassure minorities that they will not suffer permanent exclusion via ethnic dominance under an eventual democracy. We support our claim with cross-national quantitative evidence on ethnic fragmentation and regime type.     

东亚与欧美政党在民主化中的作用

本文以政党在民主化过程中的基本作用为起点，在与欧美政党相比较的基础上阐述了东亚工业化国家的政党自20世纪80年代以来在民主化过程中的作用。指出尽管政党变迁的路径各有不同，但全方位型政党及其代表性功能已经成为政党发展的重要趋势，东亚只有发展起具有一定群众性和代表性的全方位型政党才能在民主巩固过程中发挥重要作用。同时，有一个相对自由的宪政环境对于形成既有竞争性又有包容性的政党体制是不可或缺的，这是政治民主化稳定发展的重要前提。     

Electoral Violence in Africa Revisited

This article addresses the still unsettled question of the incidence of violent election periods in Africa. It uses two new datasets, which report episodes of social conflict in the region for 1990–2011, and elections worldwide from 1960 to 2010. When combined, these data suggest that onsets of electoral violence peak around major election days in Africa as a whole, but with wide national variability in the volume of new episodes. Depending on the time span and type of social conflict, from one-quarter to three-quarters of the elections for national leadership have been without incident. The article also investigates the timing of electoral violence and the extent to which there is an experience curve effect, whereby subsequent elections have fewer onsets of social conflict. The data indicate that two-thirds to three-quarters of elections are free of onsets of social conflict, but that the proportion does not change much with experience. Overall, there appear to be reasonable grounds for optimism about peaceful elections in many African countries.     

Elections,Election Outcomes,and Democracy in Southern Africa

Elections and election outcomes are widely used as a convenient short cut to measuring democracy. If this were correct, information on elections and election outcomes would be a time- and cost-saving means of identifying regime type. However, this article shows that the influential democracy measures of Beck et al., Ferree and Singh, Przeworski et al., and Vanhanen fail to adequately identify regime type when applied to ten countries in Southern Africa. For most countries, it is not possible to distinguish democracies from non-democracies on the basis of elections and election outcomes. Multi-party elections are not always free, fair, and democratic; dominant parties and dominant party systems are not necessarily undemocratic; large election victories are not by themselves proof of foul play; and not all authoritarian regimes maintain their rule through overwhelming parliamentary or electoral majorities.     

Optimal sources of financing for microfinance institutions in sub-Saharan Africa

This article studies the relationship between different sources of finance and the financial performance of microfinance institutions in 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of 471 microfinance institutions over the period 1995 to 2012. By applying the GMM estimator, the results suggest that first, there is a positive and robustly significant relationship between equity and the financial performance of microfinance institutions; and second, debt and microsavings negatively affect the financial performance of microfinance institutions in the sub-Saharan African region. Therefore, the optimal source of finance for microfinance institutions in sub-Saharan Africa is equity. More importantly, the policy recommendation is that private or public partners must support MFIs financially; doing so could contribute to extending financial services to the poor in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: the need for participatory governance

Traditional approaches to fighting poverty have yielded unsatisfactory results in some African countries, and have been positively damaging in others. Economic growth and social expenditure on the part of both national governments and international donors have been ineffective in some countries, while in others they have exacerbated poverty. The author considers that this is due to the absence of participatory governance. From a theoretical perspective, support for participatory governance stems from Amartya Sen's approach to understanding poverty, which conceptualises poverty as a lack of capabilities, leading to social exclusion. The lack of such governance has led to the failure of traditional approaches in the fight against poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, the author proposes a tool for assessing the quality of governance, and its application in Cameroon.     

Political Party Finance in South Africa: Disclosure Versus Secrecy

Litigation initiated by the Institute for Democracy in Southern Africa against all political parties for the disclosure of donations initiated a debate over party-funding regulatory regimes. The case for disclosure and regulation emphasized the causal connection between secret funding and corruption as well as the weakening of democratic practice. An empirical assessment of these claims shows that secrecy has not brought about these predicted effects and that official institutions have been effective in uncovering and prosecuting political and other forms of corruption. Moreover, evidence is presented showing that the disclosure of donors' identities will prejudice smaller, opposition parties to the detriment of South Africa's multi-party democratic system. An appropriate regulatory regime for the country must emerge from a deliberative process, rather than a judicial decision, if it is to be effective. In addition, the regulations must balance transparency against the interests of smaller parties through innovative and country-specific monitoring mechanisms.     

Political institutions,human capital and innovation: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Using data for a sample of 35 sub-Saharan African economies for 1995–2015, this study examines the extent to which political institutions identified as belonging to democratic or autocratic regimes explains the existing differences in innovation across sub-Saharan Africa. While the very few existing studies focus only on the direct effect of institutions, this article examines the impact of the interaction between different regime types and human capital development on innovation in developing countries. The evidence provides very strong support for the direct effect of democratic development on innovation as well as for its indirect effect via its impact on human capital development. However, the results do not support theories that argue in favour of interaction between democracy and human capital, thereby pointing to the need for better calibration of the numerous existing theories and related empirical measures.     

Discrimination and ethnic conflict: a dyadic analysis of politically-excluded groups in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

The literature on political exclusion and conflict tends to treat grievance-based mechanisms with broad-brush strokes and does not differentiate between types of political exclusion. This study disaggregates politically-excluded groups into two subgroups: groups that experience political discrimination from the state, and groups without political power that are not explicitly discriminated against. We posit that discriminated groups are more likely to experience grievances and therefore are more prone to conflict than excluded groups that are not actively discriminated against. We further posit that the effect of discrimination on conflict is moderated by interactions with economic inequalities and the share of elites. Using dyadic data for 155 ethnic groups in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, we find that among politically-excluded groups it is indeed discriminated groups that are responsible for most of the association between political exclusion and conflict. Groups that face active, intentional, and targeted discrimination by the state are significantly more likely to be involved in conflict than excluded groups who do not face this explicit form of discrimination. Additionally, we find that discriminated groups who also experience economic inequalities are less likely to engage in conflict, whilst an increased presence of elites within discriminated groups can precipitate the chances of conflict.     

Minority Arab voting: village dynamics and electoral observations in Israel

For all the novelty of a democratizing “Arab Spring”, there have long been pockets in the Middle East where Arabic-speaking voters have gone to the polls in competitive elections, albeit as minority citizens. This article sheds light on such voting at the grassroots level, in Israel, where passions are intense even as the issues and candidates are local. Contradictions between Western notions of electoral democracy and the power of the Arab extended family (hamula) result in what we call “electoral hamulism”. Unexamined heretofore in the scholarly literature are the variability of polling station openness and the methodology of electoral observation in the Arab electoral world. Also underappreciated are psycho-cultural consequences of electoral loss. Overall, the article takes up Valbjørn’s call for “meta-study” analysis and “self-reflective” rethinking of the study of Arab politics.     

Double standards: the verdicts of western election observers in sub-Saharan Africa

This article tests whether Western election observers apply a “double standard” to elections in sub-Saharan Africa. It demonstrates that they do: Western election observers were statistically less likely to allege that significant fraud had occurred in an election in sub-Saharan Africa, than an election of the same quality held elsewhere, throughout the period from 1991 to 2012. This discrepancy exists despite controls for other factors commonly thought to influence the verdicts of observers, such as the strategic interests of Western countries. Yet, there is variation over time. Between 1991 and 2001, the double standard is partly explained by “progress bias,” a tendency to tolerate flawed elections that improved on those held previously. From 2002 to 2012, observers’ application of a double standard is much harder to explain. In that period, the analysis points to several factors that discourage Western observers from alleging fraud, including the risk of triggering electoral violence and a desire to protect relationships with strategic partners. It also identifies factors that make allegations of electoral fraud more likely, including the precedent set by past allegations of fraud and – unexpectedly – higher levels of foreign aid. None of these factors, however, account for the regional discrepancy.     

Civil Society,Democratization, and Foreign Aid: Civic Engagement and Public Policy in South Africa and Uganda

Drawing on comparative research in South Africa and Uganda, this article examines how far civil society organizations influence government policy and legislation and extend citizen participation in public affairs. The article also considers how far external funding influences policy engagement and outcomes. The main finding is that few civil society organizations have either a consistent level of engagement in the policy process or make a significant difference to policy outcomes. The nature of internal governance practices in galvanizing citizens' voices and the relationship to the state and political parties are the most decisive factors in civil society organizations achieving policy influence. The article concludes that the capacity of civil society organizations to offer citizens a say in decisions and to enhance pluralism may be as important as their ability to influence policy and demand accountability from state actors.     

Paradigms in South African cinema research: Modernity,the New Africa Movement and beyond

Abstract

The history of theoretical approaches about South African cinema is discussed from the turn of the twentieth century period of the New Africa Movement, through various other theoretical moments, up to the early 1990s. These include conservative cultural theory, liberal humanism, workerist, Althusserian and Gramscian Marxisms. The discussion examines theoretical interventions either promoting or opposing modernity in the work of Thelma Gutsche, Hans Rompel, John Grierson and various Afrikaner cultural organisations during the first half of the twentieth century. Post-1970s cinema theory is critically examined in relation to discursive contestation occurring within both academia and the industry.     

Killing and Voting in the Basque Country: An Exploration of the Electoral Link Between ETA and its Political Branch

We deal in this article with the relationship between ETA attacks and electoral support for Batasuna, its political wing. We show that the relationship is twofold, since the geographical distribution of electoral support for the terrorists affects the location of ETA attacks, but violence also influences electoral support for the terrorist cause. On the one hand, when ETA chooses a location for its attacks, it takes into account the electoral strength of Batasuna. Our results show that the higher the vote for Batasuna in a municipality, the more likely members of the security forces will be killed there. With regard to the targeting of civilians, the relationship is curvilinear. ETA kills civilians in municipalities that are polarized, where support for Batasuna falls short of being hegemonic. On the other hand, our results also show that ETA attacks have an effect on the size of its support community. When ETA kills members of the security forces, voters punish the Batasuna party electorally. In the case of civilians, it depends on the specifics of the various campaigns. We find that when ETA kills informers and drug-dealers, the vote for Batasuna increases. ETA's killing of non-nationalist politicians, however, decreases Batasuna's vote share.     

Beyond patriotic discourse in financing the SDGs: investment-linked diaspora revenue bonds model for sub-Saharan Africa

Mobilising and sustaining investment flows are two interrelated challenges of development financing. Given the untapped potential of remittances and knowledge flows of sub-Saharan Africa diasporas, an investment-linked diaspora revenue bonds model is proposed to target three issues: generating diaspora investments, which will not be used to service sovereign debts; linking such investments to projects, programmes, and sectors with high economic returns; and developing hybridised institutional frameworks of local and diaspora actors to manage this investment. This model, a hybrid of sovereign and corporate bonds, draws lessons from the Sukuk market and other diaspora bonds to offer an alternative solution to the multi-dimensional nature of development financing challenges confronting SSA countries.     

Horizontal accountability and the challenges for democratic consolidation in Africa: evidence from Liberia

Why are most African emerging democracies failing to consolidate and reach the two-turnover test? Most scholars attribute this to the poor quality of elections and limited institutionalization of vertical accountability, overlooking some important variables. This article challenges this conception both theoretically and empirically by focusing on the quality of horizontal accountability illustrated by observations of comparative interest in Liberia's emerging democracy. Since the end of Liberia's bloody civil war in 2003, two successive and successful democratic elections (2005 and 2011) have been organized, putting Liberia on the path towards democratic consolidation. When analysing the electoral mechanism of vertical2016 accountability, many scholars have been enthusiastic about the prospects of democratic consolidation in Liberia, most of them neglecting the horizontal accountability processes that are also crucial for the quality and durability of democracy. This article analyses the processes and challenges of democratic consolidation in Liberia by focusing on key institutions of horizontal accountability. It argues that although the country has made some progress towards democratization since 2005, the domination and centralization of executive power, weak and dependent institutions of horizontal accountability (legislature, judiciary, national elections commission, general auditing commission, and anti-corruption commission) are major challenges to the consolidation of democracy. These findings have important implications for our understanding of horizontal accountability and democratic consolidation in African emerging democracies.