Econometric models and the study of the economic effects of Social Security

This article provides a relatively nontechnical discussion of previously published research on the use of econometric models in the study of the economic effects of social security. It illustrates the role of econometric model building by focusing on three major applications: forecasting, policy simulation, and hypothesis testing. A series of three macroeconomic examples serves to emphasize that the development and use of such models puts the focus of the analysis on the underlying economic structure. The first example presents a program-specific model of the Social Security system, the second a large-scale model of the U.S. economy, and the third a single-equation analysis of a specific issue.     

On the uses of econometric models: A guide for policy makers

This paper reviews the evidence on ex ante and ex post forecasting with econometric models, considering in particular the role of human judgment in improving forecast accuracy. The importance of human judgment in econometric forecasting and the general superiority of ex ante over ex post forecasts provide evidence of model misspecification, which casts doubt on the validity of econometric policy simulations. An inadequate basis for selection among alternative models with differing policy implications undermines further the utility of these models in policy analysis and in testing hypotheses. Despite this record of performance macroeconometric models thrive and are widely used in policy analysis. Some reasons for their survival and importance in policy are suggested, and guidelines for the use of econometric models in the policy process are given.     

Would Bigger Councils Yield Scale Economies in the Greater Perth Metropolitan Region? A Critique of the Metropolitan Local Government Review for Perth Local Government

Forced amalgamation is a ubiquitous feature of Australian local government reform – compulsory council consolidation programs have occurred in all states and territories, with the sole exception of Western Australia. However, the Final Report of the Metropolitan Local Government – released in October 2012 – called for a reduction of about 60 per cent of the local authorities in the Greater Perth metropolitan area. The Western Australian Government responded by announcing that the number of Perth councils will fall from 30 to 14 from 1 July 2015. The Final Report recommended amalgamation on seven main counts, including scale economies. However, apart from citing work on Tasmania by commercial consultants Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) (2011), no econometric evidence was produced in support of claims on scale economies. This paper seeks to remedy this deficiency by estimating a number of econometric models on the impact of amalgamation on Perth local government. The results of our empirical modelling suggest that scale economies, cost savings and other pecuniary gains are largely illusory. Indeed, only two of the ten main local government functions provide evidence to suggest potential economies of scale.     

Public Finance Variations: A New Approach*

Few themes have aroused so much interest and contention as the search for environmental determinants of public policy. One major problem area in this debate concerns the identification of explanatory variables accounting for the cross-country variation in public expenditures. As no agreement has been reached about the basic issues involved, it seems appropriate to formulate a new approach to the problem of accounting for public finance patterns. An argument is presented to the effect that the employment of more rigorous econometric tools may help us draw an outline of the structural pattern behind the public household. The analysis indicates that we must abandon the idea of identifying stable structures that describe the relationships between the public household and the environment.     

An exploratory study of social class and energy issues

This paper analyzes the relationship between a Marxian class measure based upon individuals' relations to the means of production and three types of survey items dealing with energy and conservation issues; knowledge items, attitude items, and items concerned with behavioral change. We also compare the relationship between three commonly used measures of socioeconomic status (SES) (family income, personal income, and education) and these same items regarding energy and conservation. In this manner we attempt to determine whether a particular Marxian class measure can provide insights in this issue area which are not provided by the traditional measures of SES. Contrary to previous research, our major finding is that the three traditionally accepted indicators of SES are related to many more energy and conservation items than is our measure of Marxian class.The authors are engaged in a series of collaborative articles. The order in which our names appear in these works is rotated.     

论外商直接投资对我国经济发展的影响

章首先根据计量经济学原理，建立了二元线性计量经济模型，利用1983年－1998年的国内生产总值和外商直接投资数据，对外商直接投资对中国经济增长的积极影响进行了计量分析。然后，章较为详细的分析了这种积极影响的产生机制，并在此基础上提出了有关的建议。     

‘I can't even buy a bed because I don't know if I'll have to leave tomorrow’: temporal orientations among Mexican precarious status migrants in Toronto

This paper analyzes the links between migrant illegalization and precarious status migrants' temporal orientations. I begin by evaluating research on three research orientations in this area: (1) research that focuses on temporal contingency versus temporal teleology; (2) research about immigration status, illegalization, and time; and (3) research on the link between precarious immigration status and precarious work. I then draw on interviews with 13 Mexican migrants with precarious immigration status to discuss how immigration status affects migrants' ability to make plans, secure decent work, and experience a sense of belonging in the context of reception (Toronto, Canada). I conclude by arguing for a framework of temporal contingency when analyzing precarious status migrants' narratives of temporal orientations.     

POLITICS, TOTALITARIANISM AND FREEDOM: THE POLITICAL THOUGHT OF HANNAH ARENDT

FEW contemporary political thinkers have attempted as much as Hannah Arendt has in the course of her effort to formulate a philosophy capable of comprehending every important aspect of the human condition. Her endeavours have not indeed passed unnoticed; on the contrary, each of her major works has been extensively reviewed and the originality of her thought readily acknowledged. And yet, surprisingly, little attention has been paid to her work considered as a whole;' the complex of ideas which gives her essays their unity as a body of writing on political philosophy has been neglected. In the present paper an attempt will be made to rectify this state of affairs by directing attention away from the trees to the wood.     

区域经济发展中城市体系分维研究——以陕西省关中地区为例

借助分形理论考察了陕西省关中地区城市规模分布自20世纪80年代以来的变化趋势.根据统计资料,对关中城市群不同等级城市的经济效益进行实证分析,得出关中城市群的城市规模分布已经影响了关中地区的区域经济发展,需要充分重视中等城市在区域经济发展中的重要作用,要将追求区域整体经济效益最大化作为城市化建设的重要目标的研究结论.     

Castoriadis and the Project of Autonomy. A Review of The Imaginary Institution of Society

This paper examines the concepts of individual and social autonomy in Castoriadis' writings and then moves on to discuss the 'dichotomy' between his early and later works in relation to Castoriadis' major work The Imaginary Institution of Society , which is discussed in some depth. This discussion is focused as much as possible on the political content of Castoriadis' thinking, with more weight being given to the philosophical concepts Castoriadis himself introduced. Finally, the way in which Castoriadis' philosophical work has been received is examined with reference to both the distorting way in which post-modernists treat his writings, but also the significance his work may have for a new liberatory project (like the Inclusive Democracy project).     

Community welfare services in Urban China: A public-private experiment

The social welfare system in China has been undergoing transition since the economic reform in 1978 when the Chinese government began introducing a series of welfare changes aimed at shifting responsibility from the government to a combination of government, communities, enterprises and individuals. Consequently, many cities in China have been experimenting with community-based welfare services — a state-sanctioned practice based on socialist ideology, but at the same time market driven and incorporating the private sector. This new welfare approach started an ongoing dialogue in China regarding the role of the public and private sectors in social welfare, the balance between socialist and capitalist values, and the input of the free market and political democracy. This paper presents a case study of an urban community in Beijing. It examines the policy of community-based services and discusses its implementation in urban communities. The research suggests that the public-private coordination is, within limits, effective in meeting people’s needs in the community. However, further attention should be given to the sharing of responsibility for welfare between the public and private sectors so as to protect vulnerable populations. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Denver. Her major interests of research focus on social development and community service, law and social work, and comparative welfare policies. He was also chair professor of Social Work Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and founding Dean of the School of Social Development at the University of Minnesota-Duluth. He has written extensively on international social development and human security.     

Prices,Devices, People,or Rules: The Relative Effectiveness of Policy Instruments in Water Conservation1

Water conservation policy is a natural laboratory for addressing general issues of relevance to policy analysis and public administration, particularly the relative effectiveness of policies in changing human behavior. Using multivariate regression analysis of a dataset comprised of more than 200,000 monthly observations of more than 19,000 household accounts over six years, this paper makes three main contributions. First, it contributes to the substantive area of water conservation policy by analyzing what works. Second, it contributes to our understanding of generic policy instruments. Third, it raises an important issue regarding standard assumptions about selection bias. The results support earlier work warning that offsetting behavior can negate engineering solutions to policy problems, but further indicate that adding communication to engineering solutions can create cooperation that overcomes offsetting behavior. They also provide evidence that appropriate regulation can be effective, and that pricing can be effective even when price elasticities of demand are low.     

Pathways of democratisation to human development in post‐communist countries

The article investigates the consequences of post‐Cold War regime transitions on human development in the former Soviet bloc. Relying on a mixed‐methods research strategy that combines econometric and qualitative comparative analysis, it proceeds through three consecutive steps. First, there is a discussion of how democratic institutions may solicit governments’ attention toward social issues. Second, the relationship between democratisation and human development in 21 post‐communist countries is tested. Third, democracy in its core attributes is unpacked, and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is used to identify a few alternative institutional configurations favouring human development. The analysis reveals that not only full democracies, but also some hybrid regimes, have been successful in this task.     

The family: Where do we go from here?

His graduate work was done at Ohio University, and he has received fellowships from the National Endowment for the Humanities and the American Scandinavian Foundation. His major works are Family Questions: Reflections on the American Social Crisis and The Swedish Experiment in Family Politics,both published by Transaction.     

Political Science Research on China: Making the Most of Diversity

This article aims at stimulating debate on the future development of political science research in and on China by bringing into clearer view the diversity of social science research in the West. It argues that far from monolithic, political science is itself engaged in a broad controversy on common goals and shared standards. Secondly, addressing international students of Chinese politics the article observes that we are currently witnessing a transformation of the field as we experience a slight shift toward more quantitative work. However, those China scholars working in a qualitative tradition should not see this as a hostile takeover of the field. Rather they should take this as a stimulating opportunity to employ more refined methodologies from within their own tradition as well as engage in multi-method research. The challenge is to make the most of diversity and to engage in fruitful cross-cultural dialogue based on respect for each other’s viewpoints. Three major divides need to be bridged: between qualitative and quantitative approaches, between political science and area studies as well as between Chinese and Western scholars.     

Referendums in the Third World

Since the early 1960s many Third World countries have been attracted to referendums, with the earliest being held in Uruguay in 1917, Iraq in 1921 and Chile in 1925. Butler and Ranney(1978) identified referendums in Third World nations up to 1978, yet analysis of the political process and patterns of these referendums is lacking in the political science literature. It is the purpose of this paper to identify some of the patterns and processes common to African, Asian, Latin American and Middle Eastern referendums. The paper will examine briefly the Western democratic referendums, excluding the experience of Switzerland and Australia where referendums are an integral part of the constitutional and political process. Secondly, the general and regional Third World patterns will be examined. Thirdly, referendums in nine countries will be described; lastly, the paper will conclude with the identification of the common patterns and processes of Third World referendums. In this paper we are concerned with post- independence national level referendums; although, many referendums have been conducted on a subnational level and prior to independence.     

THE EFFECT OF THE CHILD-CARE CREDIT ON LOW-AND MIDDLE-INCOME TAXPAYERS' PURCHASES OF CHILD CARE

The child‐ and dependent‐care credit in the Internal Revenue Code is intended to encourage the consumption of commercial day‐care services. This research finds, through econometric analysis of tax returns from 1983 and 1987, that reducing child care's after‐tax price increases child‐care consumption by low‐ and middle‐income taxpayers who purchase commercial child‐care services.     

The Contributions and Impact of Professor William H. Riker

This paper demonstrates the significant and extensive impactof W.H. Riker's works on the study of political science andpublic choice. We provide a citation analysis, peer reviews,and commentaries from former colleagues and students. Thecitation analysis shows that Riker's work has been cited morethan 3700 times by over 2000 different scholars in more than500 different journals. Peers, former colleagues and studentshighly respected him as a scholar and a person. Riker's mostsignificant intellectual contributions include using gametheory to analyze political behavior and incorporatingrational interest theory as a basis for the scientific studyof politics.     

Trust in elites and protest orientation: An integrative approach

The consensus based hypothesis that trust in political authorities is a major determinant of system stability has received less empirical support in the protest literature than its theoretical appeal once promised. We propose a major revision of the leadership-trust approach—one which integrates the conflict and consensus approaches by considering both public trust in established elites and public trust in challenging elites. Recognizing the importance of opposition leadership, we reason that thedifference between these two types of trust, which we conceptualize astrust differential, should explain protest orientation better than other trust-variable alternatives. The new trust differential variable suggests a distinctive typology of trust orientations which predict the degree of protest endorsement somewhat differently than the traditional authority-trust model. Using survey data collected in Madison, Wisconsin, in 1973, we test the integrative differential approach against and controlling for its classic competitors and find it to be a more powerful, independent predictor of protest orientation.This paper draws on findings and insights from papers that we presented at the American Sociological Association meeting, San Francisco, September 1978, and at the annual Western Social Science Association meeting, Denver, April 1978.