Vertical equity consequences of very high cigarette tax increases: If the poor are the ones smoking,how could cigarette tax increases be progressive?

Cigarette smoking is concentrated among low‐income groups. Consequently, cigarette taxes are considered regressive. However, if poorer individuals are much more price sensitive than richer individuals, then tax increases would reduce smoking much more among the poor and their cigarette tax expenditures as a share of income would rise by much less than for the rich. Warner (2000) said this phenomenon would make cigarette tax increases progressive. We test this empirically. Among low‐, middle‐, and high‐income groups, we estimate total price elasticities of _0.37, _0.35, and _0.20, respectively. We find that cigarette tax increases are not close to progressive, using both tax expenditure‐based and traditional welfare measures. This finding is robust to cross‐border purchasing, generic cigarettes, and substantial external effects. However, we find that taxes can be progressive under some behavioral economic models (Gruber & Koszegi, 2004) but that these may only apply to a small share of smokers. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Federal policy mandating safer cigarettes: a hypothetical simulation of the anticipated population health gains or losses.

If manufacturing a safer cigarette is technically possible--an open question--then mandating that tobacco manufacturers improve the safety of cigarettes would likely have both positive and negative implications for the nation's health. On the one hand, removing toxins may reduce the incidence of smoking-related diseases and premature mortality in smokers. On the other hand, smokers might be less inclined to quit, those who have quit might resume the habit, and youth who have never smoked will have one less reason to avoid tobacco use. To assess the expected population health impacts of a legislative or regulatory mandate, we created the Tobacco Policy Model, a system dynamics computer simulation model. The model relies on secondary data and simulates the U.S. population over time spans as long as 50 years. Our simulation results reveal that even if requiring cigarettes to be safer makes smoking more attractive and increases tobacco use, a net gain in population health is still possible.     

The impact of the Master Settlement Agreement on cigarette consumption.

In 1998, 46 states and the four major tobacco companies signed the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA), which stipulated that the tobacco companies pay states $206 billion over 25 years and take steps to reduce youth smoking. The remaining states settled separately. We sought to determine the effect of the settlements on demand for cigarettes. Using a nationwide sample from 1990 to 2002, we estimated a model of the decision to smoke cigarettes. The settlements affected smoking primarily through price increases for cigarettes, although there was evidence that other policy instruments influenced smoking rates for younger smokers. By 2002, the settlements had reduced overall smoking rates by 13 percent for ages 18 to 20 and older than 65 and 5 percent for ages 21 to 64.     

Charitable giving in the German welfare state: fiscal incentives and crowding out

There are two ways that government activities influence private charitable giving: (1) government spending on the provision of public goods may cause crowding out of private charitable contributions; and (2) tax incentives may boost private charitable giving. From a sample of German income tax returns, we estimate the elasticity of charitable giving relative to tax incentives, income, and government spending. Using censored quantile regression analysis, we derive results for different points of the underlying distribution of charitable giving. Evaluating overall treasury efficiency, the tax deductibility of charitable donations fosters enough private giving to offset foregone tax revenues.     

Simulating Massachusetts Municipalities' Recession Readiness: Early Warning of a Perfect Storm?

We simulate effects of two recessions on Massachusetts municipalities in light of their relative dependence on state aid, capacity to increase property taxes under Proposition 2½ constraints, growth, and nondiscretionary costs. We also explore the efficacy of local government stabilization funds in light of current literature on stabilization funds, slack resources in general, and the state–local fiscal relationship. We found substantial variance in Massachusetts municipalities' recession readiness. Fifty‐five (16 percent) municipalities have insufficient resources to weather a severe recession scenario without significant sacrifice due to reliance on state grants‐in‐aid, low property tax revenue growth, erosion of property tax revenue increments by increases in nondiscretionary expenditures, and inadequate stabilization funds.     

Income tax policy and charitable giving

Many studies over the past 20 years have looked at the response of charitable donations to tax incentives—the tax price elasticity of giving. Generally, authors have assumed this elasticity is constant across all types of giving. Using the 2001 Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on charitable giving, this paper estimates the tax price elasticity across six nonprofit subsectors, finding substantial variation. These results suggest that the fiscal effectiveness of tax deductibility depends on the type of donation involved. This has implications for both public policy and nonprofit management. © 2007 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

CORPORATE TAX CUTS AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Accurate policy evaluation is central to optimal policymaking, but difficult to achieve. Most often, analysts have to work with observational data and cannot directly observe the counterfactual of a policy to assess its effect accurately. In this paper, we craft a quasi‐experimental design and apply two relatively new methods—the difference‐in‐differences estimation and the synthetic controls method—to the policy debate on whether corporate tax cuts increase foreign direct investment (FDI). The taxation–FDI relationship has attracted wide attention because of mixed findings. We exploit a quasi‐experimental design for Russian regions, which were granted autonomy to reduce corporate profit tax in 2003, enabling them to simultaneously experiment with different tax policies. We estimate both the average and local treatment effects of two types of tax cuts on FDI inflows. We find that, on average, relative to the absence of tax cuts, nondiscriminatory tax cuts on direct investment profit increase FDI, but discriminatory tax cuts on selected government‐sanctioned investment projects do not. Yet for both types of tax cuts, local treatment effects vary dramatically from region to region. Our research has important implications for the design of tax policy and fiscal incentive, and the assessment of fiscal policy reforms.     

The Pass‐Through of Taxes on Sugar‐Sweetened Beverages to Retail Prices: The Case of Berkeley,California

Obesity and diet‐related chronic disease are increasing problems worldwide. In response, many governments have enacted or are considering taxes on energy‐dense foods. Perhaps the most commonly recommended policy is a tax on sugar‐sweetened beverages (SSBs). This paper estimates the extent to which a tax on SSBs is passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices. We examine the first city‐level tax on SSBs in the United States, which was enacted by the voters of Berkeley, California, in November 2014. We collected the prices of various brands and sizes of SSBs and other beverages before and after the implementation of the tax from a near‐census of convenience stores and supermarkets in Berkeley, California. We also collected prices from stores in a control city: San Francisco, where a similar voter referendum failed despite majority support. Estimates from difference‐in‐differences models indicate that, across all brands and sizes of products examined, 43.1 percent (95 percent confidence interval: 27.7 to 58.4 percent) of the Berkeley tax was passed on to consumers. The estimates also are consistent with cross‐border shopping. For each mile of distance between the store and the closest store selling untaxed SSBs, pass‐through rose 33.3 percent for 2 L bottles and 25.8 percent for 12‐packs of 12 ounce cans.     

Guns vs. Taxes? A Look at How Defense Spending Affects U.S. Federal Tax Policy

Although studies have shown a theoretical and empirical link between defense spending and economic growth and between economic growth and tax policy, the impact of defense spending on federal tax policy remains largely unexplored. This paper proposes a theoretical model and empirical test to explore the direct and indirect effects of defense spending on federal tax policy. The findings suggest that consumption expenditures for national defense directly influence the federal corporate income tax rate. However, the analysis finds no indirect relationship between defense spending and federal tax policy mediated through economic growth.     

Parental schooling choice: A case study of minnesota

Public support of nonpublic elementary and secondary education has become one of the most controversial issues in American educational policy, with tuition tax credits and deductions subjects of ongoing debate at both the state and federal level. This article presents the results of one of the first empirical investigations of how a tax subsidy for tuition costs actually influences parents' school choices using data from Minnesota, the first state to have a tuition subsidy pass judicial review at all levels. It should be uyseful to policy makers, researchers, adn practitioners who are concerned with how parents make schooling decisions on behalf of their children, and how tax subsidies for educational expenses might affect those choices.     

The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Household Finances

Using a simulated instrument strategy, we analyze how expansions to the federal and state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC) affected household finances over the past two decades. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation wealth topical modules, we also test whether responses differ over time, as well as whether there are different responses to the federal and state expansions, and how responses vary by educational attainment. A $1,000 policy‐induced increase in the average household EITC leads to a 3 percentage point increase in the likelihood of holding money in a savings or checking account, and approximately $700 more held in savings balances. These results are coupled with large increases in pre‐tax family earnings. We also find some evidence of decreases in unsecured debt holdings. We interpret these results as further evidence that the EITC increases the financial stability of low‐income single mothers.     

The effects of state R&D tax credits in stimulating private R&D expenditure: A cross‐state empirical analysis

This is a cross‐state empirical study which examines the effects of state research and development (R&D) tax credits on private R&D expenditure in the states. Other explanatory variables include federal R&D subsidies, public services in higher education and R&D‐targeted programs as well as other control variables. The statistical result shows that the establishment of state R&D credit programs is effective in stimulating more industrial R&D expenditure. In addition, state services in higher education and R&D‐targeted programs also matter in private decision of R&D investment. This policy assessment sends a positive message to state policymakers because it shows the great potential in using R&D policy instruments to promote innovation‐based economic development. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Tax Evasion from a Policy Perspective: The Case of the Motor Fuels Tax

In recent years, many state legislatures have proposed, considered, and adopted legislation intended to thwart fuel tax evasion. Despite the recent political activity of state legislatures to increase fuel tax compliance, there is relatively little research examining the evasion of excise taxes in general or the motor‐fuel tax in particular. This article examines the issues of fuel tax evasion from a policy perspective. We discuss the vulnerability of the fuel tax to evasion and examine how state legislatures in the southern region have responded to the tax evasion issue. We focus the examination on four major initiatives implemented at the federal level in four broad policy areas: tax administration, penalties and punishments, liability, and visibility and enforcement. These findings provide important insight for developing new strategies to enhance compliance to the fuel tax in particular and excise taxes in general. Furthermore, we discuss how issues of fuel tax compliance can be extended to other compliance issues such as Medicare fraud.     

Interdependenz und ideologische position: Die konditionale Diffusion der Zigarettenbesteuerung in den US-amerikanischen Bundesstaaten 1971–2006

This paper inquires into the interdependence of cigarette taxation in the US states between 1971 and 2006. It is argued that diffusion influences emanating from the tax policies of other states have an effect that is conditional upon the government ideology in a focal state. Specifically, it is shown that only those state governments that are not positioned on the far right end of an ideology continuum use an environment of high cigarette taxes to pursue their fiscal and health policy goals. At the same time, interventionist ideology can only be effective if it operates within a favorable policy environment. I argue that casting policy diffusion as conditional allows for empirically more accurate and theoretically richer models.     

How Municipal Property Tax Responded to State Aid Cuts: The Case of Massachusetts Municipalities in the Post‐2001 Fiscal Crisis

This empirical study examines municipal property tax responses to state aid cuts during the post‐2001 fiscal crisis. Using panel econometric techniques on annual changes in property tax levy by 351 incorporated Massachusetts municipalities in the period of 2002–2006, the results suggest that municipal governments offset about 9 cents of each dollar of net state aid cut through the increase of their property tax rates. It contributes to public finance literature on the extent to which local property tax can be used to stabilize municipal revenues when the intergovernmental revenue shrinks.     

Easy Money: Tax Exporting and State Support for Higher Education

There is a substantial literature that assesses the effects of tax‐exporting capacities on the tax structures and aggregate spending levels that state governments choose to implement, but no work exists that isolates the effects of state tax exporting on higher education spending. Using state‐level data for 1989, 1995, 2002, and 2007, we estimate for the median voter in each state the change in the marginal cost of higher education subsidization generated by tax exportation, and calculate the increased higher education spending that results. We consider three types of spending: state appropriations to public universities as well as need‐ and non‐need‐based aid awarded to in‐state students. We find that neither type of aid is responsive to the marginal cost, or tax price, faced by the median voter. However, the median voter's price elasticity of demand for state appropriations is statistically significant and negative. We find that the median voter's tax price is substantially reduced by the presence of prominent mining and tourism industries and by the federal deductibility offset available to firms. Thus, these tax‐exporting capacities exert upward pressure on voter demand for state appropriations to public universities.     

Do cigarette pictorial warnings really work for Korean smokers?

According to previous research, cigarette pictorial warnings are effective in not only preventing smoking but also in inducing smoking cessation. In Korea, however, the smoking rate has not changed much despite implementing pictorial warnings on cigarette packaging. Thus, in this study, I focused on how smokers perceive cigarette pictorial warnings. To do this, I conducted in-depth interviews with cigarette buyers at a convenience store where real cigarettes were purchased, and I observed their behaviors at the same time. Thirty buyers responded to the interview. During the interviews, respondents said that when they first saw a tobacco warning picture, they were affected by it at the moment, but it did not help at all to quit smoking. Rather, they justified smoking by considering the warning picture as a picture or a cigarette company logo. They also had a positive illusion of, “It will never happen to me” about the smoking-related illnesses presented in the warning pictures. Above all, cigarette warning pictures were not effective in reducing rates of smoking. This means that the tobacco warning picture policy did not properly influence smokers' perceptions. Further research on the usefulness of cigarette pictorial warning is needed.     

Estimating property tax base elasticity over time: Evidence on the revenue maximizing politician

The Laffer curve analysis suggests a possible policy conflict between short-run revenue maximization and long-run fiscal health. This paper estimates short-run and long-run property tax base elasticity in order to test whether such a conflict exists for the property tax in central cities. A stock adjustment model is used and separate time-series estimates for four New York State central cities lend empirical support to such a conflict. The results show that while disincentive effects associated with property tax rate increases are not strong enough to reduce proeprty tax revenue in the short-run, they are substantial enough to reduce long-run revenue in all but one city. The paper also tests for asymmetric response to property tax rate changes and finds significant results for only one city.     

Political-economic context and partisan strategies in the German federal elections, 1990–2002

This contribution develops a theory of the impact of differentiation on integration and unity among EU member states and discusses empirical evidence from four policy areas. According to the theory, the centripetal effects of closer co‐operation among willing EU members on initially unwilling non‐participants are strongly influenced by the character of the respective policy area in terms of public goods theory. The eventual participation of initially reluctant member states, which leads to the re‐establishment of long‐run unity despite short run differentiation, is most likely in policy areas involving excludable network effects, and most unlikely in areas dealing with common pool resource problems (the four remaining types of goods ranking in between these two extremes). The theoretical conclusions are supported by empirical evidence from four EU‐related policies: the successful three show strong characteristics of excludable network goods (EMU, Schengen and the Dublin Convention), while the one which has proved extraordinarily difficult so far involves a common pool resource problem (tax harmonisation).     

Environmental Tax,Polluting Plants’ Strategies and Effectiveness: Evidence from China

Although environmental taxes have become a popular policy tool, their effectiveness for pollution control and impact on the compliance strategies of agents remains questionable. This research uses a quasi‐experimental design to examine the effectiveness of the Pay for Permit policy, an environmental tax that has been imposed on water pollution emissions in Lake Tai Basin, Jiangsu, China, since 2009. A plant‐level panel dataset from 2007 to 2010 is used for both difference‐in‐differences and difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences analyses to compare the pollution discharge, pollution abatement, and pollution generation of policy participants and control groups. The results indicate that treated plants reduce their emissions by about 40 percent after two years of the policy implementation. Thus, the policy generated approximately a 7 percent decrease in the industrial chemical oxygen demand emission in the entire Lake Tai Basin based on the emission level of 2007. Pollution is primarily reduced via end‐of‐pipe abatement instead of cleaner production. Our results show the effectiveness of environmental taxes in controlling industrial pollution, and indicate that the tax may not motivate the adoption of innovative techniques in the short term.