The real costs of tuition tax credits

Calculations of the costs of tuition tax credits should include estimates of the induced migration from public to private schools. The estimate by the President's advisors that his 1983 tax credit proposal would cost up to $800 million by 1986 neglected the migration factor. It is demonstrated that a migration from public to private schools of about from 1 to 1.4% of the present public school enrollment is all that is necessary to secure savings from migrants that just offset the loss in federal tax revenue from tax credits granted to incumbent private school families. Greater migration will generate net revenue gains to governments as a whole.     

How Do Nonprofits Respond to Regulatory Thresholds: Evidence From New York's Audit Requirements

Nonprofits in the United States must comply with various state and federal regulations to maintain their tax‐exempt status. Despite persistent calls to increase accountability in the nonprofit sector, there is little research examining the burden imposed by existing regulatory requirements, especially at the state level. This paper uses a bunching design to estimate the avoidance behavior exhibited by tax‐exempt charities in response to New York State's audit requirements. There is clear evidence of bunching in response to the requirement that nonprofits above certain revenue thresholds file financial statements reviewed by or audited by an independent certified public accountant. Measuring the extent of bunching around the revenue notches yields estimates of the average revenue that nonprofits either forego or fail to report in avoidance of the requirements. Results from dynamic estimation show that charities near the threshold for a review engagement report approximately $1,300 less revenue than otherwise predicted by a counterfactual; charities near the threshold for a full audit report approximately $1,400 less. The results have implications for the optimal design of state‐level financial regulations.     

Fiscal Capacity and Tax Effort of the American States: Trends and Issues

The author examines the historic context of state taxing power and fiscal capacity, and the current efforts of the U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations to measure fiscal capacity and tax effort using a Representative Tax System (RTS). The two most commonly used methods of distributing federal aid to states are population and personal income, both incomplete measures of fiscal capacity. RTS estimates how much revenue each state and its localities would raise if it levied the national average tax rate for commonly used state and local taxes. The author considers the strengths and weakness of RTS as a measure of fiscal capacity and examines state rankings and trends since 1975.     

The Impact of Tax Revenue from Capital Gains Realizations on State Income Tax Revenue and Budget Conditions

We explore the effect of the rapid increase in capital gains realizations on state income tax revenue during the 1990s and 2000s, and the effect that this had on state fiscal decisions regarding the use of these revenue. We find wide variation in the growth of capital gains realizations across states and that the growth in capital gains had a significant effect on state income tax revenue for many states. We find that states used a sizable portion of the additional revenue from capital gains to fund reserves in the year the revenue was generated, and that capital gains revenue lead to some reductions in taxes but not to increases in expenditures. The evidence suggests that states were conservative in their use of capital gains related revenues.     

In defense of the Articles of Confederation and the contribution mechanism as a means of government finance: A general comment on the literature

I attempt to dispel several widely-held myths regarding government finance under the Articles of Confederation, some of which were reiterated in Dougherty and Cain (1997). I defend the contribution mechanism as a method of government finance that is superior to direct taxation by the federal government, and present evidence contradicting the belief that revenue collections under the Articles were poor. A proper comparison is with alternatives at that time, such as state tax collections and the federal governments own tax collections under the new U.S. Constitution, both of which were lower than the collection rate from states under the Articles.     

The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Household Finances

Using a simulated instrument strategy, we analyze how expansions to the federal and state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC) affected household finances over the past two decades. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation wealth topical modules, we also test whether responses differ over time, as well as whether there are different responses to the federal and state expansions, and how responses vary by educational attainment. A $1,000 policy‐induced increase in the average household EITC leads to a 3 percentage point increase in the likelihood of holding money in a savings or checking account, and approximately $700 more held in savings balances. These results are coupled with large increases in pre‐tax family earnings. We also find some evidence of decreases in unsecured debt holdings. We interpret these results as further evidence that the EITC increases the financial stability of low‐income single mothers.     

Tax exporting,federal deductibility,and state tax structure

This paper studies the interaction between the federal and state tax systems during the 1980s and, in particular, considers how the Tax Reform Act of 1986 affected state tax structure. Using a panel data set on state governments over a nine-year period, I estimate tax share equations for six categories of taxes. I find that the state personal income tax is sensitive to changes in its tax price, but find a much smaller sensitivity to changes in tax prices for the general sales tax. I then consider various reasons why the sales tax does not exhibit a sensitivity to changes in tax price and consider the implications of these results for policymakers. The regression results suggest that different income groups are concerned with different tax instruments. Moreover, the results motivate a possible benefit approach to taxation at the state level. Linking taxes, about which a particular income group is most concerned, to services received by that group might generate additional political support for state tax systems during a time when many states are facing fiscal crisis.     

Budget Deficits in the States: Massachusetts

Massachusetts entered the current recession carrying a structural deficit counterbalanced by a healthy, $2.1 billion stabilization fund, equal to 10 percent of total tax revenue. Like most states, Massachusetts only dimly realized the depth of the current recession in October 2008 when revenue collections began to slip and welfare caseloads began to increase. By May of 2009, a total FY2009 budget gap of $4 billion had been identified, the combined effect of plummeting revenues and increased costs for welfare and medical assistance. The Commonwealth closed the FY2009 budget gap through a combination of budget cuts, stabilization fund transfers, and federal stimulus funds. The Commonwealth faced an even larger $4.8 billion budget gap in FY2010. With the stabilization fund severely depleted, the FY2010 budget gap was closed primarily by budget cuts, federal stimulus money, and a sales and use tax increase. Because of the Commonwealth's reliance on one-time money to close current budget gaps, a significant budget gap of at least $2.8 billion for FY2011 was identified soon after passage of the budget. In this paper we discuss the political and historic context in which the budget gaps occurred, outline the causes of the budget gaps, and evaluate the strategies employed to close them.     

State Sales Tax Policy in a Changing Economy: Balancing Political and Economic Logic Against Revenue Needs

Soon after implementation in the 1930s, the general sales taxes emerged as the largest state tax source. In 1990, income taxes produced nearly as much state revenue as did sales taxes. Although income tax revenue have increased significantly, the sales tax is not in jeopardy of being replaced in the immediate future. The sales tax still remains a vital state fiscal concern, particularly to those states without a broad individual income tax.     

Effects of the Form of Government and Property Tax Limits on Local Finance in the Context of Revenue and Expenditure Simultaneity

This paper examines the impact of the form of government and state‐imposed property tax limits on municipal finance. We suggest that municipal revenues and expenditures are determined concurrently and estimate revenue and expenditure functions as simultaneous equations. We use the instrumental variable approach and fixed effects to address revenue and expenditure endogeneity. By testing the model on a cross‐section of rich municipal data for fiscal year 2002, we find evidence that revenues and expenditures are simultaneously determined, that potentially binding state‐imposed property tax limits effectively restrict local revenues and that the form of government is a significant predictor of local expenditures.     

How fair? Changes in federal income taxation and the distribution of income, 1978 to 1998

In this paper, we determine how tax law and income distribution changes have separately contributed to the changes in tax progressivity over time, and also how a specific pre‐tax distribution of income affects the equalizing ability of a given tax change. We use information from the Current Population Survey for years that follow immediately after significant tax law changes or after the full enactment of these changes to measure the effect of income taxes on income distribution for selected years over the period 1978 to 1998. We find that, even when account is taken of the induced effect of changes in federal income tax laws on pre‐tax income, the individual income tax structure has been less successful in equalizing after‐tax income since the 1980s and into the early 1990s. We also find that a given tax law's equalizing effect on the distribution of income is significantly affected by the pre‐tax distribution of income. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Utilization of Employment Tax Credits: An Analysis of the Empowerment Zone Wage Tax Credit

This paper provides estimates of utilization for the Empowerment Zone (EZ) wage tax credit, a subsidy claimed by employers who operate in and hire residents of federally designated areas experiencing economic distress. The EZ credit is currently the largest employer‐based wage tax credit in the federal tax code in terms of dollars claimed, with almost $250 million claimed in 2002. I show that about 6.4 percent (and at least 3.5 percent) of the working age population was claimed under the EZ wage credit in 1999. In addition, I estimate that 24.2 percent (and at least 13.1 percent) of those employed inside of the target area were claimed for the credit. I create these national estimates of use with information on credit dollars claimed from the Internal Revenue Service and population data on the eligible population from the census. These measures of tax credit use are an alternative to the use rate of firms that are presented in the existing literature, and reveal how effective the credit is at reaching residents of the target area.     

Federal tax reform and the financing of state and local governments

Although the Reagan Administration tax reform proposals would reduce federal income tax liabilities for most taxpayers, federal tax reform would also create strong pressures on state and local governments to cut taxes and public services. These pressures would arise primarily because itemizers would no longer be able to deduct state and local taxes in determining their federal income tax liabilities. In New York City and Boston, it is likely that the Administration's tax reform would induce cuts in spending that range from 2.5 to 7.5 percent. While the elimination of state and local tax deductibility may promote allocative efficiency in the provision of local public goods, the cost would be a decline in the degree of redistribution through the state and local public sector, and a reduction in local public services for the poor.     

State government purchases in a federalist economy

This paper empirically examines the impact of state government purchasing preference laws on expenditures and revenue of individual states. Purchasing preferences allow firms located within a state to win state contracts without being the low bidder. We find that states with purchasing preference laws spend 3% more in real terms per capita than other states. Evidence is found indicating that the preferences require revenue increases to fund them (the tax base does not rise sufficiently), and that there is some apparent taxpayer resistance to these preferences. This evidence is consistent with a coalition model of state government behavior because it indicates there is significant redistribution of income between groups within the state.We thank the Center for Public Policy at the University of Houston for financial support. This paper benefitted by comments received from Gordon Tullock and an anonymous referee.     

Easy Money: Tax Exporting and State Support for Higher Education

There is a substantial literature that assesses the effects of tax‐exporting capacities on the tax structures and aggregate spending levels that state governments choose to implement, but no work exists that isolates the effects of state tax exporting on higher education spending. Using state‐level data for 1989, 1995, 2002, and 2007, we estimate for the median voter in each state the change in the marginal cost of higher education subsidization generated by tax exportation, and calculate the increased higher education spending that results. We consider three types of spending: state appropriations to public universities as well as need‐ and non‐need‐based aid awarded to in‐state students. We find that neither type of aid is responsive to the marginal cost, or tax price, faced by the median voter. However, the median voter's price elasticity of demand for state appropriations is statistically significant and negative. We find that the median voter's tax price is substantially reduced by the presence of prominent mining and tourism industries and by the federal deductibility offset available to firms. Thus, these tax‐exporting capacities exert upward pressure on voter demand for state appropriations to public universities.     

The Revenue Impact of Repeated Tax Amnesties

Proponents argue that tax amnesties raise revenue both in the short and long run, by bringing former nonfilers back into the tax system. Opponents contend that amnesties produce little short‐run revenue and weaken incentives for long‐run tax compliance. However, over the last 21 years, 27 states offered tax amnesties for a second or third time. While previous research has estimated the impact of specific tax amnesties, none have estimated how the impact changes when offered repeatedly. We find that these additional tax amnesties generate less short‐run revenue than predecessors and tend to magnify revenue losses associated with disincentives for long‐run tax compliance.     

The Flypaper Effect: Evidence from India

The flypaper effect refers to the phenomenon whereby expenditure stimulus from unconditional grants exceeds that from an equivalent increase in income. The flypaper effect has been described as "money sticks where it hits." The present study empirically tests the flypaper effect for the Indian economy. The study also tests the asymmetry hypothesis that looks at the impact of retrenchment in grants. Results obtained in the present study show the flypaper effect to be vindicated. We find that both capital and revenue expenditures receive a greater stimulus from grants than would an increase in income. Results show that in the prereform period both revenue and capital expenditures are maintained during periods of grant cuts. However, in the postreform period it is only expenditures on revenue accounts that are maintained in periods of grant reduction. We also find that during periods of grant reduction, state governments maintain their expenditure programs by raising their own tax revenue. This suggests that grants from the center have had a disincentive effect and could be a reason that state governments have not exploited their tax potential to the fullest. By bringing to the fore the disincentive effect of grants we wish to emphasize the urgency of taking a closer look at restructuring and redesigning our system of intergovernmental transfers.     

Tax and expenditure limitations and the fiscal relationships between state and local governments

This paper uses comprehensive data on state and local tax and spending limitations for forty-nine states between 1976 and 1990 to estimate the effects of these limits on the fiscal relationships between state and local government. Results indicate that tax and spending limits on local governments are only partially effective in reducing revenues because political agents bypass limitations by transferring revenue reliance to unconstrained revenue sources, or because unconstrained levels of government take on additional revenue responsibilities. In particular, the empirical analysis demonstrates that binding local government fiscal constraints are associated with reductions in local revenues and increases in state aid to local governments. In contrast, state government limitations are related to reductions in both state and local own source revenues.     

Cross‐Border Shopping and State Use Tax Liabilities: Evidence from eBay Transactions

Online commerce presents consumers with a convenient way of shopping outside of their local jurisdiction, and this online purchase decision is capable of affecting in significant ways the sales and use tax collections of state governments. However, the actual revenue impact has proven difficult to estimate. There is considerable work that examines the revenue impact of seller compliance with sales taxes. However, there is little work on buyer compliance with use taxes. In this paper, we investigate the potential impact of cross‐border shopping on state use tax liabilities of buyers, using data from the largest online consumer‐to‐consumer and business‐to‐consumer marketplace, eBay.com . We collect our own data on actual cross‐border shopping transactions from eBay, focusing upon a “representative” commodity classification and a “typical” day; these data consist of nearly 21,000 eBay listings generated by roughly 7,000 individual sellers with over 9,000 buyers. These data allow us to examine the extent of actual, not estimated, cross‐border shopping by buyers, and the subsequent potential impact of this cross‐border shopping on state use tax liabilities. Our results indicate that cross‐border shopping is highly prevalent on eBay, with out‐of‐state purchases accounting for on average 94 percent of the volume of a state's purchase transactions. Even so, given the limited volume of eBay‐based transactions relative to total sales transactions, the likely impact of cross‐border transactions on state use tax revenue streams is quite low, at least at present, typically less than one percent of actual state sales tax revenues.     

Bitter Harvest: Intergovernmental Dimensions of the Farm Crisis

The recent and deep recession in American agriculture seriouslyaffected state and local government finances and services in1986. Sharp declines in farm land values began to erode thelocal property tax base in many rural communities, while rapidlyrising property tax delinquencies created more immediate cashflow problems. Many farm states experienced serious budgetaryshortfalls as revenue receipts from state income and sales taxesdeclined or failed to grow at expected rates. Both state andlocal fiscal problems were exacerbated by federal aid reductions,regional economic conditions, and rising service demands. Suchproblems made agricultural policy a major issue in the 1986elections and prompted a proliferation of new policy initiatives,especially by state governments. Some of the policy approachesadopted or being considered raise fundamental questions aboutintergovernmental relations and methods of public service provisionin a rapidly changing policy environment.