Hungary’s radical right 2.0

In the digital age, the Internet is an important factor in the emergence and success of political parties and social movements. Despite growing evidence that extremists of all stripes use the virtual world for their purposes, research on this topic still lacks a wide array of empirical data, case studies, and theoretical background. In particular, Facebook, as the most important social networking site, is a new tool for political parties and movements to mobilize followers. The article explores how the extreme-right party Jobbik uses this tool more successfully than other Hungarian parties or Western European extreme-right parties. Comparing the growth in followers highlights this success, and a look at how it generates likes helps to explain it. The article argues that Jobbik uses Facebook in a sophisticated way and suggests that this “likable” attitude helps to attract young and first-time voters.     

Which Minority is Appeased? Coalition Potential and Redistribution in Latvia and Ukraine

This article tests fiscal appeasement, needs-based and coalition potential hypotheses for redistribution in post-Soviet Latvia and Ukraine. I argue that the government's decision to reward a minority population depends on the coalition potential of minority parties and voters. In Latvia, the non-participation of minority parties in governing coalitions means that the distribution of spoils among coalition partners does not benefit the regions in which Russian speakers live. In Ukraine, on the other hand, voters and parties in western Ukraine have been sought out by Russian-speaking politicians from eastern Ukraine, and the districts of western Ukraine received preferential treatment as a result.     

Realising the Public Person

In response to a crisis of representative democracy in many Western countries, (local) governments have introduced instruments to circumvent political parties in order to establish more direct links between citizens and governments. One of these instruments is rendering electoral systems more personal, that is by giving more weight to preferential voting. Preferential voting is important since it constitutes a major element of the personal vote and it determines whether parties or voters are the main decision-makers in designating representatives. We have investigated, in relation to the local elections in Flanders (Belgium), in what kind of municipalities voters are most likely to cast a preferential vote, whether the electoral reform granting voters more power has had an effect, and if it has had an effect, in what kind of municipalities. We have put forward five groups of explanatory variables: socio-demographic, political, social capital, geographic and ballot form variables. Our analysis shows that variables from each group correlate significantly with the percentage of preferential votes, with population density and electronic voting as most important variables. A comparison between the 1994 and 2006 elections often yields the reverse picture: characteristics of municipalities that have a positive effect on the percentage of preferential votes cast have a negative impact on the evolution of preferential voting and vice versa (electronic voting being an exception). This results in the only obvious effects of the electoral reform being seen in urban municipalities, because elsewhere local politics was already to a large extent personalised by politicians being locally known. We could conclude that in these rural municipalities the electoral reform was superfluous.     

Persistence and renewal: the German Left Party's journey from outcast to opposition

This article examines electoral support for the German Left Party (Die Linke) at the 2013 Federal election. It focuses on two substantive issues. The first is that whilst studies have commonly linked the party's support to political culture, the party has modernised and it is unclear how this has influenced its support. The second is that the election was held amidst the fallout of the global financial crisis and thus enables us to test if the party benefitted from economic adversity. Using multivariate logistic regression models, these issues are investigated at the individual-level using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study. The results demonstrate that the party's support is steeped in political culture, but with important east–west variation. Further, there is no evidence that the party attracted support from economically anxious voters. These findings present a basis for broader reflections on the party's influence on the contemporary political landscape.     

Pushed by national politics or pulled by localism? Voting for independent local parties in the Netherlands

This study examines why citizens in the Netherlands vote for independent local parties. These are parties that run in municipal council elections, but do not run in elections at higher levels. This article examines a number of expectations: namely that voters vote for these parties out dissatisfaction with established parties, that they do so because they have a 'localist' political orientation or that they do so because their own national party is not running in the municipal elections. More support is found for the idea that voters vote for local parties because they are pushed away by national parties (either because they do not participate in some municipalities or because voters distrust them) than for the idea that voters vote for local parties for positive reasons, such as a localist political orientation. This article examines two surveys concerning voting behaviour in the 2014 Dutch municipal elections.     

Social Democratic parties as buffers against the extreme right: the case of Belgium

While the Vlaams Blok (currently Vlaams Belang) became one of the most successful and electorally durable extreme-right parties in Europe in the 1990s, the francophone Front National has yet to achieve a stable basis of support. We argue that an important reason for this divergence has been the behaviour of Social Democratic parties in the two regions of Belgium. In Wallonia, the Parti Socialiste (PS) held onto its traditional electorate through both distributing material benefits and by keeping traditional economic themes, or issues that it ‘owns’, high on the political agenda. The SP (currently SP.A) in Flanders has done less well on both counts. Since Social Democratic parties across Western Europe have lost voters to the extreme right, our comparison suggests that their behaviour is an important variable in understanding cross-national variation in the extreme-right's success.     

Historical legacies and the size of the red-brown vote in post-communist politics

In this paper I examine the relatively under-investigated topic of how historical legacies shaped the emergence of the “Red-brown” political tendency in East-Central Europe and the former Soviet Union – which is sometimes referred to as “National Bolshevism” or “National Communism” or “Strasserism.” More specifically I ask the question, how do historical legacies help explain why extreme right wing voters support the successors to the formerly dominant communist parties (or what I refer to as the “red-brown” vote)? I find that the most important legacy variable that affects the red brown phenomenon is the legacy of the previous communist regime.     

Mobilising volunteer activists in political parties: the view from central office

The role of volunteer activists in the success of election campaigning has undergone somewhat of a renaissance in the last decade or so. It is now becoming increasingly evident that having a strong volunteer activist base is central to winning elections, especially when the campaign is a close run affair. This then raises the important question of how to raise the volunteer armies necessary for such work. Indeed, there is a reasonably long standing literature on what might incentivise people to become active in political parties. However, there is relatively little work done on what party managers are able and willing to offer members as incentives for activism. Using new data from extensive interviews with professional party managers working in the central offices of political parties, this article explores the ways in which such party managers have worked to incentivise volunteer activists. From this data, it offers a new framework for encouraging volunteer activism through inclusive party organisations.     

Mis-coordination and political misalignments in ticket-splitting: the case of Chile, 2005–2009

Voters normally split their tickets when they do not feel sufficiently represented by only one political party or when politicians cultivate a personal vote regardless of party identification. Yet, voters might also split their tickets when they feel indifferent about like-minded parties or individual candidates. The authors distinguish between misalignment ticket-splitting (MATS), caused by a mismatch between voters’ preferences and the alternatives offered by the party system, and mis-coordination ticket-splitting (MCTS), when like-minded parties offer choices equally acceptable to voters. MCTS is likely to occur under proportional representation systems with multiple parties. The authors apply our categorization to concurrent presidential and legislative elections in Chile in 2005 and 2009. There was plenty of MCTS but little MATS. The authors suggest that the two forms should be separately analyzed as they are reflective of different political phenomena.     

Foreign threat and political party change: Russia and changes in party manifestos

How do political parties react to foreign security threats? There has been very little attention paid in the literature generally to how parties react to international events, particularly how parties react to foreign policy threats. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project, we examine how political parties in countries in Europe have reacted to Russian actions in terms of their emphasis on security issues. Based upon our analysis of the manifestoes from 331 parties in 36 countries we find that, generally, interstate threats have no significant effect on the military position adopted by political parties, although these effects vary by party type and by the type of threat. Russian based threats appear to be associated with the Far Left becoming more dovish (which is consistent with what would be expected by the literature) and the Far Right becoming significantly less hawkish.     

Armed opposition groups into political parties: Comparing Bosnia,Kosovo, and Mozambique

Since the end of the Cold War, the overwhelming majority of negotiated peace settlements have been premised on the establishment of competitive, multiparty politics. The success of such settlements depends in turn on the degree to which the warring parties can make the adjustment from battlefield to political arena. This article addresses the question of how armed opposition groups are transformed into functional civilian political parties in the aftermath of civil conflict. It argues that the character and degree of commitment such parties make to the post-war political settlement depends on the kinds of challenges that adaptation to the settlement presents for them, as organizations. This article examines the cases of the Kosovo Liberation Army, the Croatian Democratic Union, and the Serbian Democratic Party in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Renamo (Mozambique National Resistance Movement) in Mozambique. Carrie Manning is assistant professor of political science at Georgia State University. Her book,The Politics of Peace in Mozambique: Post-Conflict Democratization, 1992–2000 (Praeger), appeared in 2002.     

Going Local. Voting for independent local Parties in the Netherlands 1986-2010

ABSTRACT

This paper examines why the support of independent local parties has grown substantially in the Netherlands. These are parties that run in municipal council elections, but do not run in elections at higher levels, specifically the national level. Such parties saw their support double in the Netherlands between 1986 and 2010. Parties of this type have also grown in other Western European states. This paper examines two possible explanations: declining political trust on the level of voters and, on the supply side, the rise of parties that are not rooted at the local level. The evidence shows that the rise of independent local parties reflects the rise of national political parties that do not run in many municipal elections. This article examines the case of the Netherlands, pooling five surveys from the 1986–2010 period.     

What are the Local Political Costs of Centrally Determined Reforms of Local Government?

Taking advantage of a quasi-experimental setting and drawing upon analysis of electoral results and a survey of voters, this article explores the political costs of reform through the example of the 2009 local elections in Denmark. The article finds that the local parties of mayors were punished at the polls for implementing municipal amalgamations decided by the central government. However, the effect on the mayoral parties’ electoral result is more indirect than direct. Analyses of the electoral results demonstrates that the political parties holding the mayoralty in times of amalgamations tend to nominate very tenured mayors as candidates, thereby missing the positive first-term incumbency effect, which a new mayor could have acquired. And analyses of a survey of voters demonstrates higher levels of dissatisfaction with the municipal service in amalgamated municipalities, leading to a higher cost of ruling for mayoral parties which have led the implementation of an amalgamation.     

Representing minorities in the city. Education policies and minority incorporation in the capital cities of Estonia and Latvia

This article explores the relationship between minority city-level and state-level political representations through the analysis of the contested implementation of state education policies in Tallinn and Riga. Referring to the US debate on this issue, the article asks what role minority incorporation into city-level power structures can play for its substantive representation. The comparison between Tallinn and Riga reveals two potential answers to this question. The case of Riga illustrates how city-level representation can be an alternative representative channel through which the minority can put pressure on state government and magnify its political voice within the country's democratic space. On the contrary, the case of Tallinn illustrates how a municipality can be an alternative locus of representation, which does not guarantee minority empowerment but rather entraps the minority at the local level within the implicit understanding that the minority (or at least the parties that get the minority vote) can “have its share” locally, but it cannot hope to influence state policies. The comparison between the two cases reveals different levels of legitimacy of the minority's voice in the democratic debate of Estonia and Latvia, and shows the risks and opportunities linked to the two models of minority city-level incorporation.     

Electoral-system change in Latvia and the elections of 2010

Latvia’s highly distinctive proportional electoral system owes its origins to Latvia’s 1922 Constitution and the new democracy’s electoral legislation of 1919 and 1922. Latvia’s unique feature lies in its preference system, offering the voters the opportunity to judge each candidate on their party’s list. Although the system appears to maximise responsiveness to voters’ preferences, in practice this promise remained unfulfilled and the representative quality of parliament was questionable. This was in large measure because of the capacity of candidates to stand in multiple constituencies. In 2009 amendments to the electoral law altered this key provision. This change clearly made a difference, but it could not resolve fundamental problems of Latvia’s political process in general and its political parties in particular.     

A Spatial Analysis of Czech Parliamentary Elections, 2006–2013

This article presents a spatial analysis of the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic between 2006 and 2013. Among most political parties with long-term parliamentary representation, right-wing parties had higher support in areas with a high development potential and left-wing parties in areas with a low development potential. However, similar congruence between electoral support and development potential was not found in the case of most new parties. Spatial regression analyses then show that class conflict has ceased to be the unambiguous primary factor of political competition in the Czech Republic. This finding is further supported by the often inconclusive estimates for most new parties, which showed their ability to mobilise voters from different social classes.     

Political Leadership and its Role in Achieving Good Governance in Kazakhstan

This article examines the role political leadership plays in achieving good governance in Kazakhstan, a post-communist country in Central Asia. Since its withdrawal from the USSR, Kazakhstan maintains an authoritative political leadership, where President Nazarbayev, his trusted “inner-circle,” and the stalwarts of the Nur Otan party effectively rule the country. Opposition political parties are weak and disorganized, and their leaders are not quite capable of mobilizing favorable public opinion. The finding of the study suggests that the Kazakhstani political leadership has limited success in achieving good governance in Kazakhstan.     

The post-communist left and the European Union: The Czech Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) and the German Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS)

This article traces the development of two post-communist parties—the Czech KSČM and the German PDS—illustrating how they may continue to shape hard left policy in an expanded European Union (EU). It analyses three policy areas in detail (security and defense policy, employment policy and policies towards the institutional reform of the EU) and argues that, providing the parties avoid internal ideological conflict, they may come to play significant roles in influencing hard left policy in future years. The PDS is likely to act as a bridge for other hard left groups with more conservative agendas while the much larger KSČM may attempt to shift the ideological balance back towards more structurally conservative anti-capitalist policies.     

Avoiding the Economic Crisis: Pragmatic Liberalism and Divisions over Economic Policy in Poland

Although liberalism has been the dominant economic ideology in post-communist Poland, liberal parties have tended to struggle to win political majorities. After winning the 2011 parliamentary elections, Citizens' Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) became the first party in Poland's democratic history to win two consecutive elections. Despite its liberal ideological background, Platforma Obywatelska took a more pragmatic and cautious approach to economic policy, avoiding the introduction of strong austerity economic policies. This paper considers the debate within the liberal camp about Platforma Obywatelska's economic policies, with particular reference to the reform of pensions. It also looks at the plans of the government for more strident liberal economic reforms in its second term, at what impact these will have on the popularity of Platforma Obywatelska and at how this reflects a tension between the party's pragmatic concerns of government and commitment to liberal ideology.     

Electoral alliance with sworn opponent political party: factors impacting voting intention

Alliance with sworn political opponents is becoming a growing phenomenon within the realm of political alliances. Here, two or more competitive political parties join hands to defeat a particular common opponent. During election, alliance partners face election together and distribute electoral seats mutually to avoid vote share. However, ensuring vote in favour of opponent alliance candidate is only possible when voters prefer to cast vote for the alliance candidate. Thus, this is crucial to know influencing factors that shape voters’ voting intention in favour of opponent alliance candidate. This study is an attempt to empirically investigate factors that have significant influence to shape voters’ voting intention for opponent alliance. The result shows that opponent alliance perceived fit impacts opponent alliance voting intention positively. Opponent alliance brand trust has a positive impact on opponent alliance voting intention. In addition, opponent alliance preference impacts opponent alliance voting intention positively.