Party Competition and Government Formation in Germany: Business as Usual or New Patterns?

The process of coalition formation following the 2017 Bundestag election was the most difficult in German post-war history. For the first time, Germany saw negotiations fail, a minority government being discussed as a real possibility, and the federal president involved as formateur in coalition politics. The aim of this contribution is to explain why government formation was so intricate after the 2017 election. To this end, we trace patterns of party politics and the development of the German party system since 2013. We then study general patterns of government formation at the regional and national levels since the 1990s and evaluate whether these have changed with the advent of the right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany. Our analysis of the 2017–2018 government formation is based on a novel expert survey of the policy profiles of German parties on various issue dimensions, conducted in 2017. The results show that the continuation of the incumbent coalition government of Christian and Social Democrats was the most likely outcome, and that the Social Democrats were indeed able to enforce a surpassing share of their policy positions in the final negotiation rounds.     

Exchange Rising? Karl Polanyi and Contentious Politics in Contemporary Latin America

Free‐market reforms in the last quarter of the twentieth century weakened the point of production—labor unions—as the source of effective nonparty political countermovement to liberal capitalism. Has another significant source of societal resistance arisen in association with the resurgence of market economics? Building on the work of Karl Polanyi, this article argues that circuits of exchange—the commodification of labor, land, and money—can be powerful sources of movement against contemporary forms of free‐market capitalism. It draws on the cases of Argentina, Bolivia, and Ecuador to explore how Polanyi's exchange‐based approach helps to elucidate three phenomena: the great variety of identities behind the myriad movements against free‐market capitalism, the emergence of community as a powerful locus for organizing, and the proliferation of new forms of transgressive and highly disruptive direct action to reinforce the debilitated effectiveness of the strike.     

Suffrage Extensions and Voting Patterns in Latin America: Is Mobilization a Source of Decay?

This article examines whether changes in electoral participation contributed to electoral volatility in Latin America between 1945 and 2000. As a result of literacy voting requirements and authoritarian interludes that disenfranchised large portions of the population, new voters in Latin America probably had different political interests from the previous electorate and were not socialized to electoral politics. The article considers the hypothesis that the inclusion of new voters with different interests produces an immediate, short‐term change in aggregate voting patterns, and a lack of socialization of new voters generates lingering instability in electoral behavior. Accounting for confounding factors, the analysis of legislative elections in 12 countries indicates that the expansion of the electorate temporarily disrupted voting patterns in Latin America but did not lead to long‐run party system decay.     

Repudiating or Rewarding Neoliberalism? How Broken Campaign Promises Condition Economic Voting in Latin America

Why do voters reward or punish the incumbent government? A number of studies show that economic performance often drives support, though the strength of this relationship is often conditional. This article suggests that economic voting may also be conditioned by the breaking and keeping of campaign promises. A number of presidents throughout Latin America have campaigned explicitly against neoliberal economic policies, only to pursue them aggressively once in office. This study argues that presidents who abandon their promises assert the executive's responsibility for the economy and raise the salience of economic issues in the next election. Consequently, voters respond rationally to these policy switches, rewarding them when they succeed and punishing them when they fail. Using data from 78 presidential elections across 18 countries, this study finds substantial evidence that broken promises exacerbate the consequences of poor economic performance and magnify the benefits of good economic performance.     

Precarious Work in Japan: Old Forms,New Risks?

This paper scrutinises the growing trends and tendencies toward nonstandard employment in Japan to understand the making of new risk profiles. Since the first signs of new risk profiles emerged prior to the bursting of the economic bubble, an analysis should not, as many have done, isolate the 1990s. Yet, few noticed that the growth of nonstandard employment had preceded the reversal of economic fortunes. Often, characterisation of the Japanese model extrapolated from relatively secure positions of one labour market segment in the highly regulated, coordinated governance institutions. For this reason, extant models have failed to anticipate growing risks in society as a whole. A review of employment regulation highlights the function of legal reforms in the making of new risk profiles. State-based regulations allowed for and codified unequal treatment of part-time and temporary work. As a result, nonstandard employment emerged as a distinct status with few of the benefits or the social protections associated with the corporate-centred, male-breadwinner reproductive bargain. By identifying the institutional logic of the corporate-centred male-breadwinner reproductive bargain, we can better understand the emergence of precariousness in the Japanese labour market.     

Political Finance Regulation and Reform in New South Wales: Towards a Fairer System?

In recent years the regulation of political finance in Australia has moved from systems of laissez‐faire to systems of enhanced regulation, which aim to curb the scale and influence of donations. This article examines political finance regulation in New South Wales — the jurisdiction that has seen the most significant transformation of its regulatory setup — to assess whether and how the new regulations have affected donations to political parties in the state. We find, based on analysis of the pattern of donations before and after the reforms, that the regulations have made the financing system fairer and thus improved the quality of democracy in the state.     

Conflict or Cooperation? Political Relations between Governors and Mayors in Major Cities in Argentina

This article explores the nature of the relations between the governors and the mayors of major cities in Argentina. The vast majority of the literature assumes that municipal governments in Argentina are weak, and that mayors therefore align with the provincial authorities. This study argues that there is more diversity in the relations between officials of both levels, and that, in some cases, these relations are openly contentious. Four ideal types of relations are identified, based on political affiliation and type of relation, through the systematisation of 43 cases of major Argentine cities.     

New Methodism and Old: Churches,Police and State in Fiji, 2008–09

Abstract

Although Methodism has remained the dominant form of Christianity in Fiji, Methodist beliefs have been contested by a proliferation of Pentecostal/evangelical churches, but never more directly than by a new form of Methodism which flourished in the years up to 2009. This new church was called the New Methodist Church and, for a period in 2008 and 2009, the Fiji police forces were strongly encouraged to participate and finally to convert to it. This article is part of ongoing research that traces the alliances and challenges between Christianity and the state in Fiji.     

To P or not to P? The Usefulness of P‐values in Quantitative Political Science Research

This contribution gives a short overview over the mechanics of significance testing in inferential statistics, in particular linear models, and tries to put the discussion about the usefulness of p‐values into a broader perspective of scientific practise. This discussion needs to be embedded into the larger debate about the credibility crises faced by empirical social science research. In particular, it seems of utmost importance to discuss what the profession as a whole, journals, publishers, as well as editors can do to encourage better research practise that generates reliable and useful empirical findings.     

Can Anyone Stop the President? Power Asymmetries and Term Limits in Latin America, 1984–2016

Since the late twentieth century, numerous Latin American nations have launched efforts to relax presidential term limits, often successfully. This article discusses the conditions under which countries succeed in relaxing term limits. Drawing from bargaining models and reviewing 36 cases, it makes three arguments. First, actors' preferences are fairly predictable on the basis of officeholding: presidents are the most prominent actors pushing for expansion of term limits; opposition parties lead the resistance. Second, power asymmetry, measured by presidential approval ratings, is the best predictor of success, better than ideology or share of seats in Congress. Third, the only hope for stopping popular presidents rests with ruling parties and the courts, but only when the latter are sufficiently independent.     

Direct Democracy and Political Trust: Enhancing Trust,Initiating Distrust–or Both?

This study investigates the relationship between direct democracy and political trust. We suggest a solution to the controversy in research centering on positive versus negative effects of direct democracy by analytically differentiating between the availability of direct democratic rights and the actual use of those rights. Theoretically, greater availability of direct democratic rights may enhance political trust by increasing citizens' perception that political authorities can be controlled as well as by incentivizing political authorities to act trustworthily. In contrast, the actual use of the corresponding direct democratic instruments may initiate distrust as it signals to citizens that political authorities do not act in the public's interest. We test both hypotheses for the very first time with sub‐national data of Switzerland. The empirical results seem to support our theoretical arguments.     

The Co‐optation of LGBT Movements in Mexico and Nicaragua: Modernizing Clientelism?

Before the 1980s, LGBT groups in Latin America were largely (though not entirely) excluded from the state. This article argues that a combination of factors—democratization, social movement demands, neoliberal globalization and its accompanying discourse of modernity—has led many state actors to seek to incorporate LGBT groups into the state. Considering two cases of self‐proclaimed revolutionary parties, Mexico's PRI and Nicaragua's FSLN, the article examines how and why these parties incorporated LGBT organizations and what impact such incorporation had on the LGBT groups themselves. In both countries, LGBT groups benefited from clientelistic resources at the same time that they found themselves deradicalizing, often forced to accept visibility without rights. But in Nicaragua, a more recent revolutionary experience and ties to a combative, autonomous feminist movement have allowed some LGBT activists to resist the state's efforts to co‐opt their movement.     

“Corporatism With Adjectives”? Conceptualizing Civil Society Incorporation and Indigenous Participation in Latin America

Ethnodevelopment is a relatively new type of participatory policy that targets the poverty of marginalized ethnic groups with a focus on identity and self‐management. While observers have recognized the empirical significance of this new paradigm, little has been done to conceptualize ethnodevelopment. This article argues that national‐level ethnodevelopment implementation is a form of corporatism. Examining ethnodevelopment institutions in Ecuador, it shows that the state has structured, subsidized, and partially controlled the indigenous sector through ethnodevelopment policies and agencies. However, certain components of classical corporatism, such as monopolies of representation, do not characterize this paradigm. This article therefore classifies ethnodevelopment as a diminished subtype of corporatism. It challenges corporatism's long association with a particular historical period in the region and finds that Latin American states and social groups have called on historical institutional repertoires in responding to the newly salient ethnic cleavage in the region.