Dynamic Attenuation: Terrorism,Transnational Crime and the Role of the US Army Special Forces

This article analyses the ability of the US Army Special Forces to combat illicit networks (criminal and terrorist) through ‘dynamic attenuation’. It is argued that a process of dynamic attenuation, where network ties and not the actors in the network are targeted, should replace the current US strategy of ‘killing or capturing’ criminal agents threatening US interests. By dynamically attenuating (not destroying) the ties between and among criminal actors and criminal organisations, the US can effectively reduce the capability of criminal organisations to operate and achieve their missions (profit and/or terror). This argument is substantiated by assessing the environments where criminal networks thrive, the characteristics of criminal networks, the utility of targeting networks instead of individual actors, and through a comparison of criminal organisations' and US Army Special Forces' strengths and weaknesses. This article concludes with implications and recommendations for US policy in the fight against criminal organisations.     

“Legitimate Strengths in Criminal Networks”

Extending from the organizing crime perspective, we study how legitimate world actors contribute to structuring a criminal network. This focus also underscores the facilitating role that some participants have in criminal settings. Based on a case study of an illegal drug importation network that was monitored by law-enforcement investigators over a two-year period, we find that although most legitimate actors (or non-traffickers) had nominal roles and contributed minimally to the criminal network's structure, a minority of these actors were critical to the network in two ways: (1) they were active in bringing other participants (including traffickers) into the network; and (2) they were influential directors of relationships with both non-traffickers and traffickers. The presence of such influential participants from legitimate occupational settings illustrates how upperworld figures can facilitate criminal enterprise beyond the mere contributions of legitimate status and expertise.     

犯罪网络分析:社会网络分析在有组织犯罪研究中的应用

在刑事司法领域所使用的"网络"(networks)一词通常是指犯罪组织。一个犯罪网络首先也是一个社会网络,社会网络分析是对社会关系结构及其属性加以分析的一套规范和方法。它主要分析的是不同社会单位(个体、群体或社会)所构成的关系的结构及其属性。自美国"9.11事件"以来,世界各国政府、学者、媒体逐渐认识到社会网络分析在有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要作用,纷纷使用社会网络分析方法对恐怖主义犯罪等有组织犯罪进行犯罪网络分析、研究,通过解构犯罪组织,发现犯罪成员体系、结构特征与行动目标,从而对有组织犯罪进行有效预防和打击。我国应充分认识社会网络分析在现代有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要价值,全面了解国外有关理论与应用发展,积极采取政府资助项目研发与直接设立研究机构等多种手段,促进犯罪网络分析理论与方法在我国的迅速发展。     

The effects of different paraphrasing styles on the quality of reports from young child witnesses

The link between criminal attitudes and behavior is well established throughout the literature. We know, for example, that offenders have higher levels of criminal attitudes than non-offenders. However, it is also likely that individual differences in criminal attitudes exist among offenders. The aim of the study is to explore the unique contribution of (1) individual, (2) criminal career, and (3) social characteristics to individual differences in criminal attitudes. Data were used from the Prison Project, a large-scale study among prisoners in all Dutch remand centers (N = 1612). Hierarchical linear regression models were used to identify factors associated with two types of inmates' attitudes. Among the most salient relationships with criminal attitudes were having more agreeable personality traits, having a criminogenic social network, and having experienced more prior incarcerations. Criminal history and social characteristics had the most salient links with criminal attitudes. The results seem to support the idea that criminal behavior is learned in interaction with criminal others, which is in line with the ideas of differential association and reinforcement. The current study might serve as a starting point for individually oriented prison intervention strategies and rehabilitation efforts based on specific offender characteristics.     

Criminal network security: An agent‐based approach to evaluating network resilience*

Criminal networks are frequently at risk of disruption through arrest and interorganizational violence. Difficulties in designing empirical studies of criminal network recovery, however, have problematized research into network responses to disruption. In this study, we evaluate criminal network resilience by examining network recovery from disruption in an array of different criminal networks and across different disruption strategies. We use an agent‐based model to evaluate how criminal networks recover from disruption. Our results reveal the vulnerabilities and time to recovery of numerous criminal organizations, and through them, we identify which disruption strategies are most effective at damaging various criminal networks.     

A neural network applied to criminal psychological profiling: an Italian initiative

The author presents a brief discussion of criminal profiling followed by an introduction to the Italian Neural Network for Psychological Criminal Profiling (NNPCP) project. This project, based on a so-called neural network and data mining, is an innovative technique being developed with the intention of extending criminal profiling to single serious crimes through the use of a computerized database.     

Do all the pieces matter? Assessing the reliability of law enforcement data sources for the network analysis of wire taps

Law enforcement agencies rely on data collected from wire taps to construct the organisational chart of criminal enterprises. Recently, a number of academics have also begun to utilise social network analysis to describe relations among criminals and understand the internal organisation of criminal groups. However, before drawing conclusions about the structure or the organisation of criminal groups, it is important to understand the limitations that selective samples such as wire taps may have on network analysis measures. Electronic surveillance data can be found in different kinds of court records and the selection of the data source is likely to influence the amount of missing information and, consequently, the results. This article discusses the impact that the selection of a specific data source for the social network analysis of criminal groups may have on centrality measures usually adopted in organised crime research to identify key players.     

CRIMINAL ACHIEVEMENT, OFFENDER NETWORKS AND THE BENEFITS OF LOW SELF-CONTROL

This study follows recent research on criminal earnings and examines the impact of underlying traits (low self-control) and personal organization features (nonredundant networking) on the criminal earnings of a sample of incarcerated offenders previously involved in market and predatory crimes. Controlling for various background factors (age, noncriminal income, lambda and costs of doing crime), both low self-control and nonredundant networking independently explain why some offenders are more successful than others in achieving higher monetary standards through crime. Although efficient, brokerage-like networking enhances market offenders' earnings, low self-control emerges as an asset for predatory offenders: the lower their self-control, the higher their criminal earnings. For market offenders, however, low self-control has no direct effect, but it does mitigate the impact of effective networking on criminal earnings. The results emerging from this study have implications for Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory of crime and the advent of a criminal network perspective. Extensions are also made toward the conventional/criminal embeddedness framework and deterrence research.     

Evolution of a drug trafficking network: Mapping changes in network structure and function across time

There is a growing body of research using social network analysis to study criminal networks. The great majority of this research examines networks at a single time point. Although there are theoretical approaches which hypothesise on how criminal networks develop and grow, little empirical research has been conducted on the growth of criminal networks over time. This project documents the growth of a drug trafficking network. The aims were to examine and describe structural and functional changes in a criminal network across time. We found that the density of the network remained somewhat stable over time, although the network became more decentralised at the final time point measured. Centrality scores for individual nodes showed significant changes over time. Individuals changed the roles performed across time, consistent with the changing needs and focus of the network. Overall, our results support the characterisation of networks as flexible and adaptive.     

网络犯罪刑事管辖权研究

网络空间的全球性、开放性、不确定性和非中心性,使存在于网络空间的网络犯罪对传统的刑事管辖提出了挑战,传统刑事管辖理论似乎难以统领各国网络犯罪管辖实践。对传统刑事管辖理论进行全方位反思,探讨和研究网络犯罪刑事管辖权对理论和实践都具有重要意义。     

Leadership protection in drug-trafficking networks

Effective leadership is a crucial component in organisational success. This also applies to criminal networks that have the added challenge of operating in a high-risk hostile environment. While criminal networks commonly employ communicative and structural practices meant to buffer leadership from exogenous threats, there has been little empirical examination as to their effectiveness. In this article, we review the research literature on the various approaches that profit-oriented illicit networks employ to protect their leaders. We then present sociometric and qualitative data from a previously unexamined drug-trafficking network (the Prada cocaine-trafficking network) as a case study on leadership protection tactics employed by illicit entrepreneurial networks. Results of our analysis are discussed in the conclusion, along with study limitations and areas for future research.     

Models of South-East Asian Organised Crime Drug Operations in Queensland

In 2002, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) issued a report entitled Results of a pilot survey of forty selected organized criminal groups in sixteen countries which established five models of organised crime. This paper reviews these and other common organised crime models and drug trafficking models, and applies them to cases of South East Asian drug trafficking in the Australian state of Queensland. The study tests the following hypotheses: (1) South-East Asian drug trafficking groups in Queensland will operate within a criminal network or core group; (2) Wholesale drug distributors in Queensland will not fit consistently under any particular UN organised crime model; and (3) Street dealers will have no organisational structure. The study concluded that drug trafficking or importation closely resembles a criminal network or core group structure. Wholesale dealers did not fit consistently into any UN organised crime model. Street dealers had no organisational structure as an organisational structure is typically found in mid- to high-level drug trafficking.     

Association for Methodology and Documentation in Psychiatry Profiles Predict Later Risk for Criminal Behavior and Violent Crimes in Former Inpatients with Affective Disorder*

Abstract: Few studies have investigated criminal and violent behavior in patients with affective disorders. We reviewed the national crime register for records of criminal offenses committed by 1561 patients with affective disorders and studied the predictive value of certain psychopathological symptoms assessed with the Association for Methodology and Documentation in Psychiatry (AMDP) system concerning future criminal behavior. Sixty‐five (4.2%) patients had been convicted in the 7–12 years after discharge (307 cases). Patients with the AMDP syndrome mania had a significantly higher risk for later criminal behavior. The combination with the hostility syndrome further increased the risk. These findings are in line with previous data indicating a higher risk for later criminal behavior in patients with a manic/bipolar disorder compared to depressive disorder. As previously demonstrated in another sample of schizophrenic patients, the AMDP syndromes mania (and hostility) is associated with a higher risk of later criminal behavior.     

Criminal network vulnerabilities and adaptations

The current paper aimed to investigate the effectiveness of five law enforcement interventions in disrupting and dismantling criminal networks. We tested three law enforcement interventions that targeted social capital in criminal networks (betweenness, degree and cut-set) and two interventions that targeted human capital (actors who possess money and those who possess precursor chemicals). These five interventions are compared with each other and with random (opportunistic) removal of actors in two settings: (i) with network adaptation incorporated into the simulations and (ii) without network adaptation. Results illustrate that the removal of actors based on betweenness centrality was the most efficient strategy, leading to network disruption in the least number of steps and was relatively consistent across replications. Targeting actors who possessed money was the second most effective overall and was also relatively consistent in its disruptive effect.     

Friends with(out) benefits: co-offending and re-arrest

Research shows that co-offending has contradictory effects on rates of re-arrest. On the one hand, group offending may be riskier: for example, co-offenders might be targeted by police or might snitch to protect themselves. Criminal networks may also have indirect effects: offenders embedded in criminal networks commit more offences and thus should have a higher risk of being arrested at some point. On the other hand, networks generate steady criminal opportunities with relatively low risk of arrest and high monetary benefits (e.g. drug trafficking). Few authors have empirically explored the relation between co-offending and re-arrest. This article does so using data from seven years of arrest records in the province of Quebec, Canada. The analysis is designed to explore why some offenders are re-arrested after an initial arrest while others are not. It focuses on the factors involved in re-arrest, considering two distinct levels of measures of co-offending. The first level of analysis takes into account a situational measure that indicates whether a given offence was committed by co-offenders (group offence). The second level is used to examine whether being part of a criminal network influences re-arrest. For offenders embedded in such networks, two network features (degree centrality and clustering coefficient) show that the global position of individuals within the Quebec arrest network are analysed. Our results suggest that co-offending is a crucial factor that should be taken into account when looking at the odds of being caught again. The use of generalised linear mixed model brings interesting nuances about the impact of co-offending. The article adds to the recently growing literature on the link between networks and criminal careers.     

Networks within networks: using multiple link types to examine network structure and identify key actors in a drug trafficking operation

Understanding criminal networks can aid in the identification of key players and important relationships within the network. We examined multiple, directed link types in a criminal network. Eight distinct link types were identified, each one related to the exchange of a particular resource (e.g. drugs, money). The analyses focused on the eight link-type network layers and a merged network representing links across all eight layers. We were able to determine the link type of around 31% of the links, and found that nearly 50% of the nodes were involved in more than one network layer. This suggests that many actors contribute in multiple, diverse ways to the operation of the network. Actors were found to specialise in the exchange of particular types of resources, and also to specialise in the strategic position they occupied in the transfer of particular resources.