多重三边关系影响下的中亚地区

作者通过总结和分析中亚的态势,提出在中亚存在的多重三边关系.首先,作为中亚区域的核心三角关系:例如在上海合作组织框架下的中亚国家、俄罗斯、中国三边关系; 其次,跨欧亚区域的三边关系,包括俄罗斯、欧洲、中亚国家,其中包含俄罗斯、中国、印度等国家; 第三,全球层面的三边关系,例如:俄罗斯、美国、中国的关系,俄罗斯、欧洲、美国的关系.从长远来看,中亚地区内部的多元化以及外部的多样化共同深刻地影响这个区域的发展.作为中亚外部环境的基本形式,三边关系应以尊重国家基本安全利益为目标,并考虑在不可避免的合作与竞争的外部行为过程中采用共同的价值标准.     

Gaming the state: consequences of contracting out state building in Afghanistan

The operation of a vibrant illicit economy and government corruption are widely acknowledged as obstacles to the post-conflict reconstruction of Afghanistan. However, massive influxes of money tied to the international efforts have led to ‘legal’ corruption that similarly obstructs state consolidation and peace. This paper considers the various ways in which Afghan entrepreneurs have learned to ‘game the state’ by taking advantage of donor and especially US procurement systems since 2001. The conceptual framework and evidence suggests that designing ways to limit corruption arising from the state-building process is key to improving the long-run prospects for post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan and similar states where rapid and steep increases in foreign aid and associated contracts create fertile ground for malfeasance.     

The Central Asian muftiate in occupied Afghanistan, 1979–87

Known by the Russian acronym SADUM, the muftiate responsible for overseeing mosques in the five Soviet Central Asian republics conducted pro-Soviet public diplomacy in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan after the invasion of December 1979. SADUM's engagement with pro-Soviet ulama in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan marks a departure from the character of its extensive propaganda and relationship-building activities elsewhere in the Muslim and developing worlds. The Central Asian Islamic scholars staffing SADUM sought to assist the Soviet Party-state in establishing and consolidating a cadre of Afghan ulama who could achieve legitimacy in the eyes of Afghanistan's overwhelmingly Muslim population while maintaining political support for the Communist-oriented People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan.     

中国与中亚国家的能源合作及中国的能源安全——地缘政治视角的分析

能源安全是当今世界的一个焦点问题.经济处于快速发展阶段的中国对能源的需求与日俱增,能源安全已经成为中国国家安全最主要的内容之一.目前中国把开展各种形式的国际合作作为解决能源安全问题的主要手段之一,其中与中亚国家的能源合作占有相当重要的地位.中国与中亚国家的能源合作既有坚实的客观物质基础,也有与之相符的主观合作愿望,已经取得了较大的成果.从长期来看,这种合作并不仅仅是中国与中亚之间经济互利的需要,更有地缘政治利益上的考量和需要,对于未来中国的能源安全有着十分重要的意义.     

The five shades of grey: party systems and authoritarian institutions in post-Soviet Central Asian states

ABSTRACT

This article overviews and seeks to explain the processes of party system formation in the post-Soviet Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) by focusing on a crucial party-system property, fragmentation. The analysis reveals that to a much greater extent than in democracies, where party systems are largely shaped by societal factors, the level of party system fragmentation in autocracies is determined by the scope of presidential powers, as entrenched in the formal institutional order and reflected in the national constitution. The level of authoritarianism is largely inconsequential for party system fragmentation, while the role of electoral rules is secondary. Institutionally weak and institutionally strong autocratic presidents have a preference for fragmented party systems, while presidents with an intermediate range of powers seek and obtain low levels of party system fragmentation.     

东北亚油气合作的现实选择:来自中国在中亚的成功经验

东北亚和中亚地区凭借丰富的油气资源,在世界能源版图中的地位日渐上升。近年来,中亚地区油气合作发展迅速,但是在资源总量上更具优势的东北亚油气合作之路却充满曲折。在地区性统一能源市场形成之前,政府间多边协调机制仍然是东北亚油气合作的现实选择。中国在互利双赢的理念指导下,以良好的政治互信为基础,以油气运输管线为纽带,通过以双边合作为主、双边合作带动多边合作的方式,循序渐进地稳步推进了与中亚国家的油气合作。因此,中国在推动地区油气合作方面积累了一定的成功经验,提高了驾驭复杂局面的能力,理应在推进东北亚油气合作方面发挥更积极的作用。     

Assemblages of mobility: the marshrutkas of Central Asia

ABSTRACT

This article addresses reconfigurations of urban space in Central Asia through the lens of marshrutka mobility. Marshrutka-based transport is – together with the bazaar trade – a major sector of Central Asian economy. Although precise data are not available, estimates propose that one family in ten gains its income through it. In spite of its economic and social importance, there has barely been any research on marshrutka mobility so far. The marshrutka mobility phenomenon appears at once wide-ranging and elusive. In order to grasp its complexity, we propose a theory framework based on John Law's concept of fluidity and assemblage. Providing empirical insights from Khujand, in northern Tajikistan, the article addresses marshrutka mobility from a local perspective, notably with regard to regulatory processes of marshrutka-based transport. It also covers the trans-local perspective, with particular attention to global flows of ideas, vehicles, and people.     

作为中亚转型国家参考模式的发展型政权

苏联解体20年后,几乎所有的前共产主义国家都程度不同地完成了从计划经济向市场经济的转型.然而,仍然有些转型国家在这一进程中落在后面,其中就有前苏联的5个中亚加盟共和国.对于这些既不同于俄罗斯和东欧,更不同于西方发达国家的国家来说,实现转型没有明显的参照模式.本文的目的就是分析在东亚地区取得成功的"发展型政权"是否也能够为中亚经济体的发展提供一个参考模式.     

Environmental migrations in Central Asia: a multifaceted approach to the issue

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, studies are considering Central Asia a ‘hot spot’ of climate change and a region prone to environmental migrations. Growing aridity and the shrinking of glaciers may have important impacts on food security, health, human security and infrastructure in the region and compel people to move. Drawing on the literature on environmental issues in Central Asia and on interviews conducted in the Kuhistoni-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan, this article provides a literature survey on environmental migrations in the region and positions Central Asia in the current debates within the broad environmental migrations literature. The article shows that environmental issues can stand out as an important push factor for out-migration in Central Asia, highlights the important role of the Soviet heritage of environmental management as well as of post-Soviet socio-economic transformations in understanding these issues, and discusses possible adaptation strategies.     

Governance and order-making in Central Asia: from illiberalism to post-liberalism?

ABSTRACT

This forum brings together five different angles on the question as to whether and how political regimes and forms of order-making can and should be researched through the concept of ‘illiberalism’. The discussion engages critically with this and associated concepts, such as ‘illiberal peace’ and ‘authoritarian conflict management’, which have been developed out of the Central Asian / Eurasian context and discussed in their wider global ramifications and, within the framing of ‘illiberal peace’, explored in various contexts in and beyond Central Asia. While further assessing the relevance and implications of this approach, this forum also attempts to think beyond ‘illiberalism’ by introducing and discussing the idea of ‘post-liberalism’. This way, the authors engage in an exchange that serves to probe both concepts and to determine their strengths and limitations when it comes to analysing and understanding politics and societal processes in Central Asia.     

Negotiating state and society: the normative informal economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus

ABSTRACT

This special issue introduces new research on informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The research presented here was conducted in Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Beijing, Guangzhou, Yiwu and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China. The following eight articles illustrate how informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus provided spaces for people across the region to negotiate state and society in the last three decades; the articles also suggest that informality should be seen as constitutive of a normative order for polities in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Informal markets and trade in Central Asia rest on three factors: the inability of the state to measure commercial transactions; markets and trade becoming places from which citizens built personalized networks that required individualized networking and oral agreements based on social relations, particularly trust; and markets being embedded within states in which clientelism frequently thrives.     

中亚国家经济转型的政治-制度基础:来自中国的经验

中亚地区由于地理上和经济上的重要性,以及其尚未完成的转型进程,日益成为国际上高度关注的焦点.本文的目的是详细说明经济转型过程中一个牢靠的政治-制度基础(politico-institutional foundation)是必不可少的;本文还要探讨中亚国家建立这样一个基础的方法.出于相似政治方面的条件,本文把表现出色的中国作为中亚国家发展方向的范例.     

NGO networks in Central Asia and global civil society: potentials and limitations

Based on research carried out by INTRAC (International NGO Training & Research Centre) in 2006–2007 in four countries of Central Asia for Oxfam–Novib, the article investigates NGO networks and their international links in the context of current theory on civil society and global civil society. Three case studies of NGOs working in service delivery, community development and free media are examined to show the diversity of aims and the potential and challenges of networking in the region. Civil society advocacy at national and international levels is analysed with a fourth case study on the campaign conducted in Kyrgyzstan against joining the World Bank's Highly Indebted Poor Countries programme. This example shows a more radical, alternative mode of civil society activism. The article emphasizes the importance of national- and regional-level networking and poses the question of whether NGOs in Central Asia can shift from their current positions on the periphery of global movements and debates.     

State-run media outlets in Central Asia: external regime legitimation through regional conflict and cooperation framing

ABSTRACT

In this article, we empirically examine how the Central Asian states apply external regime legitimation strategies to legitimize their regimes domestically. We used the Central Asia Watch Project’s data from five Central Asian state-run media outlets to examine spatial and temporal changes in regime legitimation strategies. All the Central Asian countries employed external regime legitimation strategies, but those strategies differ based on regime type. Overall, we see continuity and persistence in reporting regional cooperation but underreporting of regional conflict throughout the 2016–2017 timeframe of this study.     

A war of perception: the struggle for legitimacy,influence and power through media in post-2001 Afghanistan

The international community and the Afghan government tout the expansion of domestic media in post-2001 Afghanistan as an indication of progress. However, much of Afghan media has been appropriated by powerful ex-warlords to expand their influence and maintain their grip on power. Jamiat-e Islami and Hezb-e Islami – former jihadist groups who continue to wield considerable political influence within the country – are fierce rivals currently wielding their affiliated media outlets to wage a propaganda war against each other. Each seeks to justify its own right to power and to delegitimize the opponent – ratcheting up tension in a country whose future after 2014 remains precarious and uncertain. This study examines the media campaign of each group, analyzing the salient narratives in their media messages, the intended audiences of these narratives, and what the narratives tell us about the intents and concerns of each group.     

Diversity of Southeast Asian Capitalisms: Evolving State-Business Relations in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Empirical gaps exist in the literature about diverse forms of capitalism. The first is thematic, involving the incomplete institutional and political account of how the state can, through a series of policies, shape the development of domestic enterprises. The second gap is regional in nature: this literature does not deal with the historical development of firms that have played a central role in industrialising Southeast Asia. One reason for this is that since most existing theories are based on Western contexts, they are theoretically ill-equipped to deal with the concepts of power and state-business nexuses when the political system is not democratic in nature. But state-business ties, where politicians in power distribute government-generated rents on a selective basis, have resulted in diverse business systems such as highly diversified conglomerates, state-owned companies and small- and medium-scale enterprises. This article deals with these theoretical and empirical gaps. To better understand the nature and implications of evolving state-business ties in Southeast Asia, this topic is examined through the lens of regulation theory. To appreciate the complexity and implications of state-business configurations on the political system and forms of enterprise development, a case study of Malaysia is provided.     

重修丝绸之路:迈向亚洲一体化

丝绸之路是指将东亚、中亚、南亚与地中海沿岸国家(包括北非和欧洲)连接在一起的、纵横交错的泛亚贸易交通网络。在过去的几十年中,随着全球化的不断深入,亚洲再度成为世界经济的重心。许多亚洲经济体成为了国际生产网络中不可分割的一部分,他们自身也从不断扩大的国际贸易、投资以及加速的经济增长中获益良多。然而,由于缺乏区域性连接,亚洲巨大的发展潜力尚未发挥出来。本文认为,缺乏全面的区域性连接是影响地区增长、阻碍亚洲乃至世界一体化进程的重要因素之一。鉴于此,亚洲应该加强地区通道建设,使之成为国际通道的一部分。本文还讨论了在通过泛亚运输基础设施建设实现地区连接的过程中,可能遇到的一系列问题和挑战。     

Silent partners: archaeological insights on mobility,interaction and civilization in Central Asia’s past

ABSTRACT

Civilizations are as complex as the human relationships that engendered them, and outlining these relational qualities within open notions of mobility and interaction frames a reconceptualization of Central Asia’s past. Recent Eurasian archaeological research deconstructs deterministic political-economic or hierarchical typologies of civilization and the overly simplified narrative that roots it in urban centres perpetually juxtaposed with nomadic groups. Archaeological evidence from the Oxus Civilization, Central Asia’s earliest complex polity (ca. 2500–1400 BCE), reveals the deep roots of sedentary–mobile interactions. I argue that Oxus–steppe relationships helped maintain the long-term structural cohesion of the Oxus Civilization as a multicultural entity, with implications for subsequent Central Asian polities. As we begin to balance the lopsided conversations about the social formations of Central Asia’s past and present, the silent partnership that characterized the Oxus Civilization is given a voice that forces us to reconsider who, exactly, belongs inside our notions of civilization.     

International politics in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century central Asia: beyond anarchy in international-relations theory

Using historical analysis of relations between city-states and other international actors in Central Asia during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, this article evaluates new structural theories of international politics, chiefly those of David Lake and Jack Donnelly. Pre-colonial Central Asia offers a usefully tough case for structural theories, since it so little resembles the modern international order that these theories were developed to describe. Empirically, the article proceeds by evaluating the region's city-states' relations with three groups of actors: one another; neighbouring empires; and the many non-state actors present at the time. It concludes with an assessment of the merits of the new structuralisms, and a discussion of their value for constructivist international-relations theories of international change.     

History writing as agitation and propaganda: the Kazakh history book of 1943

The reconstruction of the Soviet recent past is a controversial issue in the post-Soviet republics. In Kazakhstan, the reconstruction of the past has gradually rehabilitated leading Kazakh communists, such as Zhumabai Shaiakhmetov. One of the main rationales of this rehabilitation is his support for Kazakh historical writing, which resulted in a textbook published in 1943. This work has been seen as an endeavor by ‘patriotic’ Kazakh officials and historians to defend Kazakh national heritage against the ‘Soviet colonial empire’. By presenting a broader view of the war period in Kazakhstan from the archives, this article argues that this history textbook was in fact merely an agitation-propaganda product of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan. Shaiakhmetov and others had mostly secured their career by remaining loyal to the Soviet system during the collectivization, the Great Famine and the Great Terror. Therefore, their encouragement of the publication of a national history in 1943 for propaganda purposes does not qualify them as suitable predecessors of the current generation of Kazakh rulers.