关于建立两岸关系和平发展架构问题的几点讨论

和平发展已成为两岸关系发展的时代主题，海峡两岸应把握目前出现的难得历史机遇，积极建构两岸关系和平发展架构。要完成这一历史性的艰巨任务，必须解决有关两岸关系和平发展的几个重大问题，包括台湾政治定位或两岸关系定位问题、岛内政治和解与台湾国际空间安排等重大问题。两岸关系和平发展架构（表现形式是“两岸和平协议”）的建立，是一个涉及两岸关系长远发展的重大议题，是一个非常复杂的、庞大的系统工程，涉及政治、经济、文化、军事与安全等多方面的内容，需要海峡两岸各方做出艰苦、巨大努力，需要在追求这一共同目标下相互信任、妥协、让步，才能解决问题，达成目标。其中，在两岸关系和平发展架构的协商过程中，采用“两岸同属一个中国”或“九二共识”这一灵活、务实的“一个中国原则表述”更具可行性。两岸关系和平发展与和平发展架构的建立，只是解决台湾问题过程中的过渡性安排，而不是终极目标。     

经济安全与和平发展——日本的安全观与发展观评析

经济安全是政治安全的基础与核心，在全球化时代，和平发展是经济安全的根本保障。近现代的日本曾因崇尚军国主义，将军事安全视为国家政治安全而穷兵黩武，几近亡国灭种；战后则因走和平发展道路，创造了经济奇迹而重拾民族自尊。冷战后，日本似乎无意抓住经济立国和政治独立发展的机遏。在安全意识上故态复萌，欲通过强军而成为政治大国。因此，能否尽快奠定理性的安全观与发展观成为日本国家命运的重要选择。     

试论东北亚和平体制的建立

建立东北亚和平秩序，一个较好的解决方法是东北亚各国既不否定以自身利益判断为基础的势力均衡战略，又要建立和发展能够把这些因素囊括在一个制度框架中的多元的制度化装置。即，单纯多元制度主义和权利政治方法的结合与协调。     

卢武铉的和平繁荣政策及其对中韩关系的影响

韩国总统卢武铉在继承金大中“阳光政策”的基础上,为了促进朝鲜半岛的和平,谋求南北双方和东北亚的共同繁荣,实行了“和平繁荣政策”。卢武铉的“和平繁荣政策”的实施,为中韩政治、经济关系的合作提供了广阔的前景。     

从借鉴中国经验看南非政党政治

根据对非国大借鉴中国共产党的制度建设和中国的经济体制改革经验的背景分析，本文提出了“南非政党制度模式”概念，对该模式的稳定、作用及影响进行了分析，井认为，三方联盟基于对南非当前社会发展的主要矛盾达成的共识是“南非政党制度模式”的政治基础；而工人阶级则是该模式得以运转的群众基础。由《自由宪章》确立的“建立自由、种族平等的新南非”的既定目标，并没有随着黑人执政而得以实现，民族民主革命仍是当前南非社会发展的主要矛盾。为此，非国大力图运用政治手段实现经济基础向黑人资产阶级及中产阶级阶层的转移。三方联盟推行的民族民主革命纲领起到了笼络民众的政治效用，然而在一定程度上迟滞了南非的经济发展，不便于国内新兴市场的培育。     

“和平崛起”新维度下的中国外交

20 世纪90 年代开始，中国和平崛起理论出现，并具有自己特定的内涵，即一种新的 和平的大国兴起模式。其背景是在全球化、现存的世界政治体系和中国国内资源整合等因素影响 下，中国需要塑造自己在新世界格局中的大国地位。中国和平崛起对国际格局的影响，使美国和中 国周边利益相关国家有所顾虑，为此中国已使用新的“和平发展”提法。中国的和平发展之中，因复 杂的国内外因素制约，仍然面临相当的挑战。     

加强东北亚地区的和平与合作再创“东亚奇迹”

在世界经济区域化、集团化的大趋势下，东北亚地区虽在经济上获得迅猛地发展，但在区域合作方面已落后于欧美地区。东北亚地区，有着许多得天独厚的条件和优势，却没有充分发挥。目前应把这种潜在的优势转化为现实优势，并努力消除冷战的遗留问题，变“冷和平”为“热和平”，把政治问题暂时同经济问题分开，加强经贸往来与合作，逐步增加共识，以实现东北亚地区的和平与发展。     

区域经济一体化如何突破安全困境 ——以南亚区域合作联盟为例

20世纪90年代以来，伴随着发展中国家区域经济一体化的再度兴起，地区冲突和动荡的安全局势也为区域经济一体化带来了消极影响。作为摆脱安全困境的一种有效手段，区域经济一体化在抑制成员国间冲突升级、发挥和平效应时会受到不同条件的制约。作者从现实主义的逻辑出发，以南亚区域合作联盟为例，分析了区域经济一体化与区域内成员间冲突形势之间的互动，认为区域经济一体化进程未能产生和平效应的根本原因在于，它未能通过机会成本机制提高成员国的收益预期，高层互动机制和争端解决机制在信息沟通和冲突管理方面的作用也受到很大的制约。冷战的结束、经济全球化的发展为区域经济一体化和平效应的发挥提供了有利的环境和条件，只有进一步强化区域经济一体化的制度水平，扩大和深化区域经济一体化的程度和范围，增加多议题之间的联系，强化高层互动机制和制度的独立性，才能更好地发挥区域经济一体化制度的和平效应，尽快走出安全困境。     

从平民保护到安全治理 ——加强联合国与所在国政府及民间组织的合作

冲突中的平民保护问题已经与人权、人道主义干预、保护责任等涉及《联合国宪章》基本原则和国际法基本原则的问题密切相关，是联合国维持和平、建设和平授权的主要内容之一，也是国际法院、国际刑事法院判案的重要依据之一。虽然联合国在平民保护问题上已做出相关决议，但在实践方面，其效果与预期设想还存在差距，也存在诸多困难。将“平民保护”与“安全治理”联系起来，使“平民保护”成为安全治理的一个部分，加强联合国与所在国政府和民间社会在平民保护问题上的积极合作与相互监督，这对提高联合国平民保护效果是非常必要的。     

2010年国际战略与安全形势回顾

2010年，金融经济危机效应在政治、经济和社会多方面进一步发酵，推动世界大发展、大变革、大调整深化，逐步迈入“后危机时代”。“中国因素”愈加突出，和平发展的战略环境更加敏感复杂。     

Comparing Conditions for Quality Peace: Contemporary East Asia v. Post-War Western Europe *

: This article deals with two of the strongest conclusions from general studies on the causes as well as absence of interstate war: the importance of territorial disputes and the significance of regime type. The first is termed the “territorial peace” hypothesis; the second is known in the literature as the “democratic peace” proposition. This article discusses if these two issues have to be settled prior to the building of quality peace between states that have a history of war among them. These findings are used to analyze the actual Western European experience since World War II and then relating this to the East Asian situation today. In this way this article also points to important differences. Still, the territorial issues take on particular role if the East Asian region is to move towards more durable and positive conditions, what might constitute ingredients of quality peace. At that moment, also Real politik concerns enter the equation.     

A Quality of Government Peace? Explaining the Onset of Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1985–2001

That democracies do not wage wars against each other is one of the most widely accepted claims within the study of international relations, although challenged lately by the capitalist peace argument. In addition to confirming both the democratic and capitalist peace effects, this article finds that the impact of quality of government—that is, having an impartial, nonpoliticized, and noncorrupt bureaucracy—on the risk of interstate conflict is at least on par with the influence of democracy. This result draws on dyadic Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) data in 1985–2001 and holds even under control for incomplete democratization and economic development, as well as for fatal MIDs, the Cold War era, and within politically relevant dyads. I argue that the causal mechanism underlying this finding is that quality of government reduces information uncertainty among potentially warring parties and improves their ability to credibly commit to keeping their promises. Both democratic and capitalist peace theory needs to be complemented by theories “bringing the state back in” to the study of interstate armed conflict.     

State Capacity,Regime Type,and Sustaining the Peace after Civil War

About half of the nations that experience civil war eventually relapse into renewed conflict within a few years after the original war ends. This observation has motivated a stream of research into the factors that affect the risk of peace failure in the aftermath of civil war. While the outcome of the previous civil war—for example, military victory versus peace agreement—structures the post-war environment in ways that affect the risk of peace failure, the capacity of the post-war state to enact and implement policies that affect the incentives for and capacity of groups to undertake armed violence as a means of advancing their interests should also affect the risks of peace failure. Using Geddes’ categories of nondemocratic regime types, we will present a theory of how different regime types have varying capacities to repress and/or implement accommodative policies that affect the risk of peace failure. We test propositions derived from this theory with a series of event history models. Our findings suggest that while peace agreements significantly increase the duration of post-civil war peace, peace agreements involving some types of nondemocratic regimes actually increase the risk of post-civil war peace failure.     

实质和平的条件比较:当代东亚与战后西欧

在关于国家间战争(或非战争)原因的一般研究中,有两项最重要的论断,即领土争端的重要性以及政权类型的重要意义。前者在文章中的术语表述为"领土和平"假设;后者在一般文献中经常归纳为"民主和平"论题。作者致力于探讨的主要问题是:彼此有过战争历史的国家之间建立"实质和平",是否以上述两项议题的解决为前提条件。相关结论将用于分析第二次世界大战之后的西欧经验,其后将联系当今东亚形势展开分析。同样,文章还指出其中存在的、具有关键意义的不同之处。其中,东亚区域在向更持久的积极状态迈进时,必须考虑领土主权议题具有的特殊含义,后者构成"实质和平"的关键要素。此时,对于"现实政治"的关注也将加入相关国家的考量与平衡过程之中。     

Women’s Participation in Peace Negotiations and the Durability of Peace

There is an emerging consensus that women’s participation in peace negotiations contributes to the quality and durability of peace after civil war. However, to date, this proposition has remained empirically untested. Moreover, how women’s participation may contribute to durable peace has not been systematically explored. This article uses a mixed method design to examine this proposition. Our statistical analysis demonstrates a robust correlation between peace agreements signed by female delegates and durable peace. We further find that agreements signed by women show a significantly higher number of peace agreement provisions aimed at political reform, and higher implementation rates for provisions. We argue that linkages between women signatories and women civil society groups explain the observed positive impact of women’s direct participation in peace negotiations. Collaboration and knowledge building among diverse women groups contributes to better content of peace agreements and higher implementation rates of agreement provisions. We substantiate this argument with qualitative case study evidence and demonstrate how collaboration between female delegates and women civil society groups positively impacts peace processes. Our findings support the assumption that women’s participation in peace negotiations increases the durability and the quality of peace.     

Beyond Dyads: Regional Democratic Strength’s Influence on Dyadic Conflict

Over the history of modern international relations research, we have moved from systemic and regional studies to empirical explorations of dyadic interactions. However, our statistical models have put the details of dyadic interactions under a microscope at the expense of ignoring the relevant regional context that these dyads interact in. This development has been in part due to computational limitations, but do we really believe that decision makers interact with one another while ignoring the regional power balance and the wishes of regional powers? In this article, I take a look at the well-researched relationship between democracy and peace by using a multilevel approach to dyadic interactions and the regions they are embedded in. The findings suggest that when the regional power balance favors democracies, it influences conflict between dyads, especially mixed dyads, by increasing the costs of aggression by autocracies and establishing regional norms of cooperation and compromise.     

The Impact of Peace Journalism Training on Journalists’ Reportage of the 2015 Elections in Nigeria: An Action Research Case Study

During the run-up to the 2015 general elections in nigeria, there was widespread trepidation within and outside the nation that the increasing cases of electoral violence and political intimidation ravaging the country would snowball into full-blown violence, and possibly plunge it into civil war. this fear was largely instigated by the 2011 election, which was marred by pre- and post-election violence. Human rights Watch (2011) estimated that the violence led to over 800 deaths in three days of rioting which engulfed parts of northern nigeria. since the First republic elections in the early 1960s, the nigerian media have been very involved in the political process. the diverse nature of the media makes its ideological inclination easy to decipher, because of reportage that is often tilted along ethnic and religious lines. using data obtained through participatory action research involving 40 purposively selected participant journalists, this article proposes an alternative method of news reportage using the peace-journalism model. developed by lynch and mcGoldrick (2005), the model encourages journalists to report social issues in ways that create opportunities for society to consider and value non-violent responses to conflict, using insights from conflict analysis and transformation to update concepts of balance, fairness and accuracy in reporting. it also provides a new route map which traces the connections between journalists, their sources, the stories they cover and the consequences of their reportage.     

E–governance and e-publicanism: preliminary perspectives on the role of the Internet in South African democratic processes

Abstract

The idea of peace has gained a hegemonic place in the discourse of intellectuals and the mass media. From being a preoccupation of religious and utopian sages throughout history, a vision of a peaceful world emerged as a fashionable occupation for peace activism in the 1960s and ultimately in the 21^st century peace research has become a fast-growing industry. The assumed need to end wars and violence and to enforce peaceful existence on individuals, groups, societies and the entire world has been unquestionably accepted as if a self evident truth. By accepting such dubious claims many scholars have consciously and unconsciously distorted historical data in order to produce an image of an ideal peaceful world. Yet increasingly the belief in the ability to abolish war and eliminate conflict is being questioned and conflict prevention is seen as unrealistic, undesirable and based on misguided assumptions. Thus, if achieving peace is counterproductive what are the motives, aims and consequences of peace enforcement? This article begins a critical interrogation of the idea of peace and peace discourse and the formative value of war as human reality. The article uncovers the genealogy of peace, evaluates the relationships between peace and war and exposes the deceptive strategies and tactics of peace discourse as it manipulates language and the mass media. The article concludes that the consequences of enforcing peace do not produce a beautiful society but a nightmare where war is seen once again as a blessing.     

Capitalizing on Contention: Issue Agendas in U.S. Senate Campaigns

This abstract addresses the divergent views that political scientists and members of Congress have about the role of issues in congressional campaigns. The scholarly perspective is based on the assumption that issues and policy are relatively unimportant in the relationship between members and their constituents. In contrast, the political parties in Congress devote a substantial amount of time and attention to developing an effective issue agenda for the campaign season. The research presented in this article is a systematic study of U.S. Senate candidates' campaign messages that assesses the impact of the parties' agenda setting efforts during the election year session. The parties' efforts are compared with mass media, major legislative accomplishments, and party issue ownership as alternative sources of agenda setting in campaigns. The results of this study indicate that Senate candidates do emphasize certain issues in their campaigns and that the contentious election year issues associated with party strategy along with major legislative accomplishments are the issues that the candidates are likely to discuss.     

“全球安全倡议”：人类安全的“前景图”

“全球安全倡议”是人类命运共同体理念在全球安全治理中的具体化,是运用中国智慧为人类自救于危难、发展于和平、成就于安宁而提出的中国方案。安全观是安全的一种理论化的体系性认知。“全球安全倡议”宣示了中国的全球安全观,弘扬了全人类共同价值,超越了国际无政府逻辑,完好地回答了安全指涉对象、安全立场、安全原则、安全治理的目标/主体/方式/内容等问题,具有重大的理论创新性与时代价值。全球安全是一种本体安全,“和合”是其正向价值取向的核心,共生、共建、共享是其基本特性。为此,“全球安全倡议”的实践前提是“和合共生”,实现路径是“和合共建”,价值目标是“和合共享”。维护与塑造全球安全的共建策略是,达成人类命运共同体的全球共识,形成安全互助的良好态势,促成安全互保的战略环境,建成安全共享的治理体系。“全球安全倡议”作为以新安全格局保障新发展格局的框架设计,描绘的正是呈现和合共生、和合共建、和合共享的人类安全“前景图”,以保障人类发展的美好未来。