Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence

Objectives

A survey of empirical research concerning the determinants of an individual’s perceptions of the risk of formal sanctions as a consequence of criminal behavior. The specific questions considered are: (1) How accurate is people’s knowledge about criminal sanctions? (2) How do people acquire and modify their subjective probabilities of punishment risk? (3) How do individuals act on their risk perceptions in specific criminal contexts?

Methods

Three broad classes of extant studies are reviewed. The first is the relationship between objective sanctions, sanction enforcement, and risk perceptions—research that includes calibration studies and correlational studies. The second is the relationship between punishment experiences (personal and vicarious) and change in risk perceptions, in particular, research that relies on formal models of Bayesian learning. The third is the responsiveness of would-be offenders to immediate environmental cues—a varied empirical tradition that encompasses vignette research, offender interviews, process tracing, and laboratory studies.

Results

First, research concerning the accuracy of risk perceptions suggests that the average citizen does a reasonable job of knowing what criminal penalties are statutorily allowed, but does a quite poor job of estimating the probability and magnitude of the penalties. On the other hand, studies which inquire about more common offenses (alcohol and marijuana use) from more crime-prone populations (young people, offenders) reveal that perceptions are consistently better calibrated to actual punishments. Second, research on perceptual updating indicates that personal experiences and, to a lesser degree, vicarious experiences with crime and punishment are salient determinants of changes in risk perceptions. Specifically, individuals who commit crime and successfully avoid arrest tend to lower their subjective probability of apprehension. Third, research on the situational context of crime decision making reveals that risk perceptions are highly malleable to proximal influences which include, but are not limited to, objective sanction risk. Situational risk perceptions appear to be particularly strongly influenced by substance use, peer presence, and arousal level.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence tradition is theoretically rich, and has been renewed in the last decade by creative empirical tests from a variety of social scientific disciplines. Many knowledge gaps and limitations remain, and ensuing research should assign high priority to such considerations as sampling strategies and the measurement of risk perceptions.     

刑事违法性之本土语境

刑事违法性与违法性是中外犯罪论体系不同语境下的特定概念。我国刑法理论中的刑事违法性是犯罪概念的一个特征,是犯罪构成的上位概念,相当于欧陆刑法理论中的形式的犯罪概念。违法性只是欧陆刑法犯罪成立条件之一。弄清这种区别对于完善我国刑法犯罪论体系的路径选择具有现实意义。应将正当行为纳入我国犯罪构成并使其作为消极要件。     

Prison Conditions, Capital Punishment, and Deterrence

Previous research has attempted to identify a deterrent effectof capital punishment. We argue that the quality of life inprison is likely to have a greater impact on criminal behaviorthan the death penalty. Using state-level panel data coveringthe period 1950–90, we demonstrate that the death rateamong prisoners (the best available proxy for prison conditions)is negatively correlated with crime rates, consistent with deterrence.This finding is shown to be quite robust. In contrast, thereis little systematic evidence that the execution rate influencescrime rates in this time period.     

Deterrence and avoidance

This paper explores the effects of public enforcement, in general, and punishment, in particular, on crime levels if offenders can engage in avoidance activities. Avoidance reduces the probability or magnitude of punishment. In general, offenders can reduce their expected punishment either by substituting legal activities for criminal activities (the deterrence effect) or by increasing avoidance activities. This paper shows that increasing the direct costs of crime – by either increasing punishment or enforcement efforts – does not necessarily deter criminal activity and may actually trigger increased crime if avoidance is possible. Furthermore, this paper shows that increasing the opportunity costs of crime (e.g. by subsidizing legal alternatives or through educational and vocational programs) reduces both crime and avoidance and thus, in this respect, is advantageous. The conditions for these outcomes are identified, the economic mechanisms are explained, and an underlying intuitive approach for these results is proposed.     

Deterrence and arrest ratios

In the limited research on the origins of sanction threat perceptions, researchers have focused on either the effects of actively engaging in crime or the effects of formal sanctioning but rarely on both (i.e., the arrest ratio or the number of arrests relative to the number of crimes committed). This article extends this line of research by using a sample of Colorado inmates and measures arrest ratios and sanction perceptions for eight different crime types. Analyses reveal that the offenders report both significant experiential and arrest ratio effects. Theoretical and policy implications, limitations, and directions for future research are outlined.     

Hyperbolic Time Discounting, Offender Time Preferences and Deterrence

Objectives

This study examines the phenomena of intertemporal decision making??decisions involving costs and benefits that occur at different points in time. Two models of intertemporal time discounting are the exponential and hyperbolic models. Previous work in behavioral economics and psychology is relied on to make the case that the discounting of delayed outcomes (both gains and losses) may be hyperbolic rather than exponential.

Methods

Data were collected from 478 university undergraduate students who responded to a hypothetical scenario involving drunk driving. The potential gains and losses of drunk driving were delayed at five different intervals from ??tonight?? to ??10?years from now??, respondents were also asked to provide estimates of both the risk they would get caught if they did drink and drive and the probability that they would drink and drive under the conditions described in the scenario.

Results

Our results imply that individuals have hyperbolic time preferences for both rewards and gains, and that??unlike severity, the effect of which may be muted by risk??these discount functions appear to be operating independently of changes in the risk certainty of detection. Consistent with hyperbolic discounting, for example, when the benefit of drinking and driving was delayed by 1?week the self-reported intention to drink and drive increased by nearly 10%, however, when the gain was delayed by one month, intentions to drink and drive increased by only 4%. A smaller effect was found for delayed costs.

Conclusions

Avenues for additional research include the possibility of negative discount rates and the implications of persons?? awareness of their discount rates.     

国家符号的刑法保护

国家符号是一种特定的符号类型,可表现为文字、图案、人物形象等形式。国家符号附着于物质载体而存在,兼具社会事实属性和规范属性。社会事实属性表现为客观性、外在性、普遍性;规范属性可从重要性、积极性、法定性三方面进行判断。国家符号的社会事实结构形成于前国家的人与人的合作关系,并参与了国家的形成和运行条件的形塑,因此,侵害国家符号犯罪的保护法益为国家运行条件。国家运行条件是一种集体法益,对其刑法保护的范围受到两个方面的限制:一为基本权利的限制;二为最后手段性的限制。在国家符号犯罪的具体解释上,首先,应当恪守刑法条文的文义边界,准确界定条文文义;其次,在文义边界之内,可对侵害国家符号的不同犯罪类型进行目的性限缩。目的性限缩可从公共性、主观要素、行为方式三个方面展开。     

Auto Theft and Restrictive Deterrence

Although researchers have examined the attributes that make offenders more or less responsive to sanction threats, far less attention has centered on the manner in which responsiveness can lead to less detectible crime, or perhaps even more overall crime. Restrictive deterrence is the concept that explains this paradox. We explore it here using qualitative interviews with 35 active auto thieves. Findings suggest that auto thieves' restrictively deterrent decision-making strategies fell into three broad categories: discretionary target selection, normalcy illusions, and defiance. Discussion focuses on the data's conceptual implications for restrictive deterrence and offender decision-making.     

Deterrence and the tipping effect

Previous research has focused on certaintyznty of punishment as one. factor. upon which any dzterrent effect of punishment might be contingent and Auggested that it must reach a critical tipping level before the deterrent effect becomes evident. Using data on index crimes and clearance. rates for. Virginia cities and counties, bupport was found for both the. deterrent effect and the exlstenee of a tipping level. Attention was directed towand a more precise specification of the form of the tipping effect, suggesting that there is a single critical tipping level and that it occurs at a relatively low level of certainty of punihment.     

我国刑事立法中存在的若干技术问题

我国刑法不少地方把犯罪主体称为“犯罪分子”,在语言表述上欠准确,因为它不能涵盖单位犯罪主体,带有某种人格歧视,而且用词不经济;在应当使用阿拉伯数字的地方使用汉字,违背了国家语言字工作委员会等部门联合发布的《关于出版物上数字用法的试行规定》及GB／T15835－1995国家标准;在定罪标准方面,有的规定必须“情节严重”,有的必须“情节恶劣”,在司法实践中难以掌握;在涉及财产数额的定罪量刑方面有的规定“数额较大”,有的则规定了非常具体的数额,说明定罪量刑的标准不够统一。     

我国刑事审判监督存在的问题及其对策

刑事审判监督作为检察机关的监督职能之一,对维护司法公正,实现社会公平与正义具有重要意义。但在司法实践中,由于立法上的不完善、司法权配置的不平等、检察人员监督意识薄弱以及庭审方式的改革等原因,使刑事审判监督权效力的发挥受到影响。因此,必须从完善刑事审判监督立法,以加强检察机关对审判权的监督等方面来解决现存的问题,保证国家法律的正确统一实施。     

和谐社会语境下的刑法学新思维

2006年度我国的刑法学研究,在基础理论和实务问题方面取得了进展,尤其就和谐社会语境下的宽严相济刑事政策、刑罚改革、刑事和解等问题形成了研究热点.据粗略统计,2006年度出版刑法学著作包括个人学术专著、编著与译著不啻百部;在各类学术期刊上发表刑法学术论文2000余篇.①本年度刑法学学术交流频繁,举办了十余次富有成果的学术研讨会.②整体上看,2006年刑法学研究的热点问题突出表现为以下方面:     

Bringing Cinderella to the Ball: Teaching Criminal Law in Context

Alan Norrie, Crime, Reason and History: A Critical Introduction to Criminal Law , London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1993, xx + 279 pp, pb £16.95.     

Deterrence,Firearm Arrests,and Subsequent Shootings: A Micro-Level Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Do police firearm arrests reduce later shootings in nearby locations and in the days immediately following the arrest? This question is examined at a more detailed level than in previous work in order to better describe the spatio-temporal dynamics linking these two event types. All firearm arrests (n?=?5,687) and shootings (n?=?5,870) in Philadelphia from 2004 to 2007 were analyzed using a modified close-pair method. Following a firearm arrest shootings declined significantly, 28–47% up to a couple of blocks away. These significant declines, however, lasted for just a few days. Overall, results suggest police firearm suppression effects occur, may extend up to two blocks away from a firearm arrest, but also are short-lived. Potential implications for deterrence are discussed.     

Focused Deterrence Strategies and Crime Control

Research Summary

Focused deterrence strategies are increasingly being applied to prevent and control gang and group‐involved violence, overt drug markets, and individual repeat offenders. Our updated examination of the effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime followed the systematic review protocols and conventions of the Campbell Collaboration. Twenty‐four quasi‐experimental evaluations were identified in this systematic review. The results of our meta‐analysis demonstrate that focused deterrence strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, moderate crime reduction effect. Nevertheless, program effect sizes varied by program type and were smaller for evaluations with more rigorous research designs.

Policy Implications

The available empirical evidence suggests these strategies generate noteworthy crime reduction impacts and should be part of a broader portfolio of crime reduction strategies available to policy makers and practitioners. Investments still need to be made, however, to strengthen the overall rigor of program evaluations and improve our understanding of key program activities associated with observed crime reduction impacts.