The consequences of midnight regulations and other surges in regulatory activity

Is the midnight regulations phenomenon real and what are its consequences? This paper finds that when an administration??s time is almost up, submissions of economically significant regulations nearly double. Such surges in regulatory activity decrease the duration of regulatory review at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), likely because of political pressure to quickly approve new rules. Specifically, one additional economically significant regulation submitted to OIRA decreases the mean review time for all regulations by about two thirds of a day. If OIRA review improves regulation quality, then regulatory surges that decrease review time could hinder such improvement.     

Auctioned oil import licenses

Three times in recent years American Presidents have tried to levy a tax on imported oil in order to decrease the quantity. Three times, the U.S. Congress has blocked the policy, demonstrating that a tax is politically infeasible. As an alternative, we propose an auctioned import license policy, in which the President would have discretion over the quantity of petroleum sold each month. The quantity might be chosen to maintain a certain differential between the domestic and international prices of oil. Under this strategy, licenses would have economic characteristics very similar to those of a tax. The political characteristics, however, would be quite different. Sections of the public would be less likely to perceive licenses as transferring revenues from households to the government and more likely to perceive them as effective in reducing imports. Alternatively, oil import licenses could be used to negotiate with OPEC and other importing nations.The authors wish to thank William Dunn, Robert Walters, Richard Nehring and Charles Phelps for their helpful comments. The usual caveat applies.     

Short run and long run effects of the world crude oil prices on the Malaysian natural rubber and palm oil export prices

With regard to the increasing in world crude oil prices, it is time to examine more carefully the claim that the increase in world crude oil prices tends to increase commodity prices. Hence, we examine the major commodity prices in Malaysia namely palm oil prices and natural rubber prices. We will analyse the relationship of both commodities＇ prices with world crude oil prices using the autoregressive distribution lag （ARDL） approach. Besides the analysis of bound testing approaches to see the level of relationships, short run and long run effects also are carried out in order to investigate which period has been significantly effected by the increase of world crude oil prices. The result reveals that long run relationship between world crude oil prices and both commodities prices exists.     

Migration and oil in Tabasco

"At the beginning of the seventies, important economic investments aimed at developing and commercializing the newly discovered oilwells were made in the state of Tabasco [Mexico]. As a result of this, the distribution and the social growth of the population in this state changed. This paper analyses the general characteristics of these changes, particularly those related to migration.... Generally speaking, the most important migratory movements which took place in this state during the oil boom were from one municipality to another and not from other states to Tabasco, as was thought at first.... This paper also describes the direction of the migratory flows and provides information about the sex of the migrants and about their insertion within the sphere of employment." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Refining the prize: Chinese oil refineries and its energy security

Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, oil refineries have played integral roles in China's quest for oil security. And yet, the capacity, security, and configurations of refineries were rarely featured in the discussions about China's oil policy. To fill this gap, this paper explains the basics of refinery economics and technology, and details the development in China's refining industry since the early 1990s. By taking refineries into consideration, it then revisits and reassesses the existing literature regarding the motives and drivers behind China's foreign oil policy, its effectiveness, and the political interactions between China and crude oil producers.     

An estimation of the lag structure of the economic impact of an oil embargo

A number of economic models have been used to estimate the economic losses resulting from oil embargoes, but they have not been able to provide good answers about how quickly an economy would recover once the embargo was over. This study uses a phase lag analysis to estimate the lag structure of an embargo, and concludes that the major economic effects should be expected to disappear about six weeks after an embargo ends.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Energy.     

US need for foreign oil falls dramatically

Over the last seven years, the United States has dramatically reduced its dependence on oil imports. From their peak in 2006, imports have fallen 40% as a result of declining demand (see Figure 1) and strong growth in domestic production of liquid fuels, leading to predictions that the US could reach oil self-sufficiency within 15–20 years.     

The continuing threat of oil supply interruptions

The reaction of oil-importing nations to the energy crisis of the 1970s offers insight into a common characteristic of government behavior. Nations often fail to prepare themselves for potentially disastrous crises even when the probability of crisis seems high. Policymakers seem unwilling to confront the fact, for instance, that the oil glut does not insulate importing nations against sudden interruptions in supply. In any case, the glut will very likely have evaporated by 1990, when U.S. vulnerability will be sharply intensified. Despite the favorable opportunities for stockpiling and planning during the glut, the political process appears unable to respond.     

A method for estimating the GNP loss from a future oil embargo

This article develops a theoretical model to estimate the loss in GNP to the U.S. economy that would result from a future oil embargo. The model is based on an input-output matrix of the economy, but modifies the traditional input-output analysis in order to take account of conservation and substitution possibilities. Data generated from the 1973–74 embargo is used as a bench mark for this study in order to assure that the model produces reasonable estimates. Based upon estimates of future economic and energy growth, this study concludes that the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to economic damage as a result of a future embargo.This work was begun while the author was employed at the Center of Naval Analyses during the summer of 1974. Financial support for the continuation of this project was received from the Federal Energy Administration, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the FEA. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of either of the above organizations.     

Regulatory policy toward domestic crude oil production

Government policy toward domestic crude oil production has been justified in the past in reference to economic theory of regulation. Regulatory approaches have depended upon prevailing attitudes toward the price of crude oil. Imposition of price controls in 1971 represented a watershed in this area, although the future course of regulation remains uncertain.Mark W. Anderson, formerly a Research Associate with The Futures Group, is now studying the dynamics of land use regulation at the University of Maine. Special thanks are due to Dr. Stephen D. Reiling, Assistant Professor of Resource Economics, The University of Maine at Orono, for his insights into this topic and to two referees for their comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

和谐社会背景下油地关系和谐度评价分析

本文在熟悉与和谐有关的相关理论基础上,提出了和谐度及油地关系和谐度理论。通过查阅相关和谐度评价指标,结合石油企业本身,构建出评价油地关系和谐度的评价指标体系。利用层次分析法、模糊评价法构建出评价模型,借此对油地关系的和谐度进行评价。     

Cities and oil. Historical and prospective aspects of the urban population of Venezuela

The authors present a historical overview of urbanization in Venezuela. The impact of the oil economy on population change and spatial distribution is emphasized. A typology of cities based on socioeconomic function and on a demographic classification of urban centers is devised. Future trends in urbanization are also considered. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Policy simulation for crude oil production of OPEC countries

This paper presents a policy simulation study for the behavior of crude oil production of OPEC countries, especially oil exporting countries in the Middle East, and its influence on the world energy situation. The policy questions to be examined include: What kind of policy could avoid or postpone the occurrence of “creeping cutback” by OPEC countries, without creating an “eye for eye” type policy? What priorities exist among alternative policies? For this purpose, a policy simulation model written in DYNAMO II has been developed. Policy analyses using this simulator are presented, and the methodological limitations of this approach are discussed.     

油画语言创新推动油画艺术的发展

油画语言是画家用带有自身文化特点艺术表现形式传递感情,具有相对稳定性反映现实的、具有时代性、精神性、感染力的一种媒介。油画语言的创新对于艺术创作意义重大,能够推动油画艺术进一步发展,是形成个性化艺术风格的根源,油画语言创新体现了不同时代的特性。     

An evaluation of some microeconomic consequences of a future oil embargo

In order to develop an energy policy designed to help insulate the economy against the effects of a future oil embargo, projections of the effects of an embargo are necessary. Past work has concentrated on the aggregate output loss from an embargo, but has not carefully considered other important effects. This paper examines two important effects. First, the most heavily damaged sectors are identified, showing the automobile industry to have by far the most significant damage. Second, a large part of the economic damage done by an embargo is shown to be due to a decline in the demand for output rather than as a direct consequence of reduced petroleum supplies. This finding is significant for two related policy reasons. First, it implies that even if policy makers could replace all of the embargoed oil, major economic disruptions could still result from an embargo. Second, policies designed to minimize demand disruptions can achieve significant benefits, at low cost, and should have a high priority in policy matters pertaining to embargoes.Financial support for this work was received from the Department of Energy, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the DOE. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Energy.     

How crude: Advocacy coalitions,offshore oil,and the self-negating belief

Although the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) offers a promising approach for the study of policy change, other social science perspectives – specifically including human ecology – point to competing expectations. The ACF proposes that external perturbations are a necessary precondition for policy change; by contrast, work in human ecology draws attention to the potential for autogenic succession– cases where people or organizations act in ways that bring about their own demise. This difference in perspectives is tested with respect to a policy subsystem that has been found to offer a valuable context for examining ACF expectations, namely the U.S. federal program for offshore oil leasing. Many developments within this program have been quite consistent with ACF expectations; the rise to power of a new governing coalition in 1981, for example, did lead to a decided shift in policies, and the National Academy of Sciences did play roughly the role predicted by ACF. In addition, however, key sources of policy change were set in motion by members of the governing coalition itself – based on actions that were quite consistent with the policy core beliefs of the governing coalition, but not consistent with the assessments by independent scientists. The experience suggests that what is needed is not so much a rejection of the ACF as its refinement. Even without external perturbations, members of the governing coalition have the potential to undercut their own interests, if only because of the potential power of the self-negating belief. Ironically, this potential may be the highest in precisely those cases where the governing coalition has the greatest apparent ability to impose its own beliefs, and the lowest level of apparent need to respond to alternative or competing views.