中国和平崛起:何以能与何以为

在人类历史上相继出现了"全面对立与冲突,对内剥削压迫、对外侵略扩张";"局部的和平共处,西方国家共同发展";"共同发展范围的扩大,依附发达国家技术与市场"等三种崛起和振兴模式之后,中国的崛起历史性地创造了"全面和谐与合作,与发达国家和发展中国家协同发展"的第四种模式.与美国霸道地将它的发展理念与模式推向全球的做法不同,中国倡导和而不同,坚持发展理和模式的多样性.中国的崛起将推动东亚地区现有的垂直分工格局朝水平分工方向发展,带动周边国家共同繁荣.     

China's 'Omnidirectional Diplomacy': Cooperation with all,Emphasis on Major Powers

In the first half of 2001, China's relationship with the two economic power houses, the US and Japan, was anything but smooth. Tomoyuki Kojima, professor of political science and dean of policy management at Keio University describes the principle of China's foreign policy as ''omnidirectional'' diplomacy. The strained relations with the US and Japan, however, were contradictory to this principle which emphasizes international cooperation with a focus on world powers. In the following article, he examines the main reasons for China's problems with both countries. At the time of writing, Shanghai is to host the 2001 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in October, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization and Beijing had also won the bid to host the 2008 Olympics. As China becomes more and more internationalized, Kojima argues that the emphasis on cooperation will be perceived as having been of vital importance.     

大国无战争时代霸权国与崛起国权力竞争的主要机制

冷战后美国和中国各自的行为选择不仅与此前霸权国和崛起国战略互动的历史经验大相径庭,而且现有的理论框架难以对其做出逻辑一致的解释。这种经验和理论上的双重困惑为理论的创新提供了可能。本文首先讨论了1945年以来大国之间几乎不再有战争这一变化对大国影响力获取方式的影响,然后将霸权国和崛起国的行为纳入到博弈的分析框架中,通过类比微观经济世界中寡头企业的行为规律,提出了一个用以解释当前时代霸权国和崛起国互动模式的动态分析框架。根据本文的理论,在"大国无战争"时代,崛起国面临的主要挑战是如何在为小国提供安全保障的利益交换竞争中获胜。当前中国崛起所面临的主要困难并不在于如何避免战争以保证崛起过程的和平,而是在美国业已抢占国际安全保障供给"市场"的情况下,如何保持和提高中国自身的国际影响力。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区:中国和平崛起的地缘经济学思考

我国正在实施和平崛起的发展战略,开展强势经济外交是实施和平崛起战略的主要手段.从地缘经济学角度考察,我国实施和平崛起的战略需要有一个可靠的地区依托,建设中的中国-东盟自由贸易区正在起这样的依托作用.它具有良好的示范效应和扩散效应.我们必须用大战略眼光来经营与东盟的合作.     

大国竞争与中国对东南亚的经济外交

近些年来,随着美国高调"重返"东南亚和日本紧随其后强化其在东南亚的存在,大国在东南亚地区的竞争日益明朗。美日"重返"东南亚使得中国与东盟的经济合作不仅面临着更有力的竞争对手,经济外交为中国崛起带来的安抚效果也大打折扣,东盟国家的大国平衡策略则加剧了大国的竞争效应。为此,中国有必要进一步提高经济外交的能力,通过寻找各方利益契合点、灵活运用正负面经济手段、提供更多更有效的区域公共产品等方式来维护中国在东南亚地区的政治经济利益。     

Developing Powers and the Challenge of Peacekeeping: The Example of Malawi

Abstract

Malawi’s contribution to UN peacekeeping is growing. The development of the Malawi Defence Force was stunted under Hastings Banda, but Malawi’s foreign and security policies were reoriented under multiparty democracy and the Defence Force and police personnel were engaged in peacekeeping missions. Peacekeeping has had a profound effect on Malawi. It has led to the procurement of military hardware, contributed substantial sums to the national economy, and raised the income and living standards of participants. It has encouraged the adoption of UN best practice and contributed to gender integration. However, there are issues around transparency and accountability, and more partnerships with developed countries are desirable. There is also a role for the Commonwealth.     

Environmental Security and New Middle Powers: The Case of South Korea

This article considers the role of new middle powers in the climate change debate. We focus on the issue of “green growth.” We argue that new middle powers such as South Korea are increasingly proactive in promoting this green growth agenda and, as a result, challenging conventional realist and liberal approaches and expectations to new middle powers. This diplomacy is aiming to bridge states, great and small, by leading to strategic breakthroughs in the current climate change negotiation deadlock. The article discusses South Korea’s green growth initiative and identifies how this initiative affects South Korea’s middle power role in the global environmental debate with respect to its inclusion in the Environment Integrity Group and its initiative the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI).     

东盟实施大国平衡战略的新进展

冷战结束以来,东盟一直在推行大国平衡战略,尤其是维持中、日、美三国在东亚地区影响力的平衡.东亚峰会的召开使东盟的这种战略扩展到了印度、澳大利亚和新西兰.然而同时,东盟的地区主导作用又受到新的威胁和挑战,无疑这又会影响它实施这一战略.另外,美国的无暇东顾又使得东盟倍加担忧,从而迫使东盟召唤美国关注东南亚,以恢复大国的平衡.     

The Logic of the Apocalypse: A Clerical Rejoinder

Apocalyptic and millennial rhetoric is recycled in countless contemporary literary and cinematic works and is central in versions of progressive political critique. The first part of this essay describes Cormac McCarthy’s The Road as a dystopian allegory mired in Judeo-Christian temporality and which, as a consequence, promotes a sentimental version of human salvation. The second considers the ways in which analogous renditions of catastrophism permeate (new) new left social and political critique. It argues that apocalyptic imagery and discursive structures stunt analysis by indulging simplistic patterns of history and event. The final section of the essay documents a project by Johannesburg-based artist, Jacki McInnes, and the photographer, John Hodgkiss, concerning the lives of the city’s informal recyclers. Their daily journeys are presented in (discursive and visual) counterpoint to the epic southward trek of the father and son in The Road. “Recycling” is presented as a trope of a contrary temporality, which suggests some of the ways in which apocalyptic logic is too teleological to capture the complexities of the lived realities of late-capitalism.     

The Military: A Threat to Democracy?

The military is by its very nature a potential threat to democracy, but in well-established democracies civilian supremacy has generally been maintained, though there are dangers of excessive military influence. S. E. Finer's seminal 1962 study of civil-military relations distinguished between the modes and effectiveness of civilian control in mature, developed and low or minimal political cultures. These categories are distinguished in particular by varying degrees of political legitimacy. Finer's conclusion about the prospects for political stability and democracy in most developing countries was pessimistic. But Finer's conclusions can now be challenged, primarily because the nature of civil-military relations has changed. In mature political cultures like the USA, the threat from the military-industrial complex has receded. Japan, Germany or France — key examples in Finer's second category — have now become mature political cultures; and Russia (newly in this category) is not, despite its many problems, threatened by direct military intervention. Many countries previously classified within low political culture have moved into the second category, and despite some notable exceptions the military have become more cautious about taking responsibility for government.     

美国霸权的逻辑

以个人自由权利为核心的意识形态 ,是美国霸权主义的主要思想基础。国内民主是这套简单划一的价值观的制度基础。社会多元化带来的民主外延的扩大 ,扩大了美国价值观的社会适应性 ,在思想上形成了一种“多数人的专制”。它逐渐超越了白人种族主义和基督新教的“天命观” ,在对外事务中演化成特殊形态的美国民族主义 ,造成了霸权思想的膨胀。美国人在追求民族私利的时候很少有道德顾忌 ,充满自以为是的领袖欲望。同时 ,在美国的权力制衡、决策机制、社会结构和文化传统中 ,仍然存在着某些自我约束、自我反省的因素。     

The Two-headed Dragon: Environmental Policy and Progress Under Rising Democracy in Taiwan

Social movements constitute a political link between the power of existing polity and the ability of citizens to influence political outcomes. As a result, social movements can represent a potential rival to the acting political system, acquiring power and facilitating change through actions that create threats to existing political structures. In Taiwan, social movements were born from oppression and neglect by the ruling political class of social concerns. Environmental protests were effective in halting further deterioration of the island’s environment. How have democracy and its ensuing freedoms for citizens and movements alike altered movement structure and their issues in the socio-political environment? This research traces the development and transformation of the environmental movement in Taiwan within this changing political structure and examines how mobilized protest has been increasingly muted as an effective movement strategy, and how environmental justice has been slow to materialize.