Institutions and Ethnic Trust: Evidence from Bosnia

This study considers the prospects for rebuilding trust in a multi-ethnic society with a history of ethnic violence. Findings are based on survey data from a stratified random sample of 681 Bosnian Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks, conducted between September 2003 and January 2004. The data indicate significant trust problems in Bosnian society both within and across ethnicity. However, the study also finds strong linkages between ethnic trust and trust in institutions, suggesting that institutions can play a vital role in restoring ethnic trust and promoting reconciliation.     

Who Do You Trust? Ethnicity and Trust in Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article examines the question of trust in Bosnia and Herzegovina with a special focus on the role of ethnicity. We find generalised trust to be low and declining in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Moreover, generalised trust is negatively affected by the degree of ethnic heterogeneity in the region. However, a further examination of trust reveals a more complex relationship between ethnicity and trust: people tend to show low levels of trust in all other people irrespective of their ethnic belongings. We argue that ethnic distribution might capture some other regional specific characteristics that also affect the level of trust.     

Forced Displacement and Technology Adoption: An Empirical Analysis Based on Agricultural Households in Bosnia and Herzegovina

We use the Bosnian Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) survey to show that conflict-induced displacement of agricultural households dramatically affects the adoption of new technologies in agriculture. We exploit the heterogeneity in the level of violence in the pre-war location to account for selection bias. This natural experiment seems to be a source of exogenous variation in our case because violence aims at ethnic cleansing, without economic consideration. We find that the displaced are less likely than stayers to adopt fertiliser and pesticide.     

Weather Shocks,Agricultural Production and Migration: Evidence from Tanzania

We analyse whether Tanzanian rural households engage in internal migration as a response to weather-related shocks. We hypothesise that, when exposed to such shocks and a consecutive crop yield reduction, rural households use migration as a risk management strategy. Our findings confirm that for an average household, a 1 per cent reduction in agricultural income induced by weather shock increases the probability of migration by 13 percentage points on average within the following year. However, this effect is significant only for households in the middle of wealth distribution, suggesting that the choice of migration as an adaptation strategy depends on initial endowment. What is more, the proposed mechanism applies to households whose income is highly dependent on agriculture, but is not important for diversified livelihoods.     

Psychological Barriers to a Peaceful Resolution: Longitudinal Evidence from the Middle East and Northern Ireland

Does individual-level exposure to political violence prompt conciliatory attitudes? Does the answer vary by phase of conflict? The study uses longitudinal primary datasets to test the hypothesis that conflict-related experiences impact conciliation. Data were collected from Israeli Jews, Palestinians, and Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland. Across both contexts, and among both parties to each conflict, psychological distress and threat perceptions had a polarizing effect on conciliatory preferences. The study highlights that experiences of political violence are potentially a crucial source of psychological distress, and consequently, a continuing barrier to peace. This has implications in peacemaking, implying that alongside removing the real threat of violence, peacemakers must also work toward the social and political inclusion of those most affected by previous violence.     

Estimation of Vulnerability to Poverty Using a Multilevel Longitudinal Model: Evidence from the Philippines

Using the panel data for the Philippines in 2003–2009, we estimate a three-level random coefficient model to measure household vulnerability and to decompose it into idiosyncratic and covariate components. We correct heterogeneity bias using Bell and Jones’s ‘within-between’ formulation. A majority of the poor and 18 per cent of the non-poor are found to be vulnerable to unobservable shocks, while both groups of households are more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks than to covariate shocks. Adequate safety nets should be provided for vulnerable households that lack access to infrastructure, or are larger in size with more dependents and less-educated heads.     

Tansnationals and foreign trade: Evidence from Brazil

A recursive model of exports and imports of manufactures, in which imports depend in part on exports, is estimated using data for a cross‐section of 17,053 industrial firms. In this sample, 652 firms are foreign‐owned. Explanatory variables include firm size, skill intensity, advertising and other variables in addition to foreign ownership. Foreign ownership has a large, independent effect on both export performance and import propensities, but foreign ownership in itself explains little of the relatively low export/import ratios registered by affiliates of transnationals.     

Gender,Migration and Multiple Livelihoods: Cases from Eastern and Southern Africa

Focussing on Kenya, Lesotho and South Africa, this study examines the social impact in migrant-labour source areas of dramatically reduced employment prospects in urban areas. It considers the implications for rural livelihoods and the role which gender relations play in making possible, or impeding, people's ability to construct diversified livelihoods. When livelihoods change, gendered rights, responsibilities and power must be renegotiated. Husbands and wives may acknowledge interdependencies and negotiate, or they may disengage. Marriages may break down, or women become reluctant to marry at all, as the material basis of the household is undermined. These outcomes do not represent social breakdown, but residential instability is likely to become more common.     

Aid and Sectoral Growth: Evidence from Panel Data

This article examines empirically the proposition that aid to poor countries is detrimental for external competitiveness, giving rise to Dutch disease type effects. At the aggregate level, aid is found to have a positive effect on growth. A sectoral decomposition shows that the effect is (i) significant and positive in the tradable and the nontradable sectors, and (ii) equally strong in both sectors. The article thus provides no empirical support for the hypothesis that aid reduces external competitiveness in developing countries. A possible reason for this finding is the existence of large idle labour capacity that prevents the real exchange rate from appreciating.     

Finance and Demand for Skill: Evidence from Uganda

We explore the empirical interaction between firm growth, financing constraints, and job creation. Using a novel small-business survey from Uganda, we find that the extent to which small businesses expand skilled employment as their sales and profits increase is significantly related to access to external funding, while the hiring of casual and family workers is not. The results are robust to the inclusion of various firm level controls, region and sector fixed effects. We support our findings by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between planned hiring and firms’ access to finance.     

Migration,Livelihoods and Institutions: Contrasting Patterns of Migration in Mali

Migration is a common and essential livelihood strategy in the risk-prone environment of Sahelian West Africa. But migration is not a passive reaction to economic and environmental forces. Patterns of movement are determined by context-specific and complex dynamics, mediated by social networks, gender relations and household structures. IDS-based research on sustainable livelihoods illustrated this in two locations in Mali: in a village in the Sahelian dryland with different and gendered migration patterns of various ethnic groups; and exceptional patterns in the Sudano-Sahelian cotton region with extensive and long-lasting engagement in small cocoa and coffee plantations in Côte d'Ivoire.     

Armed opposition groups into political parties: Comparing Bosnia,Kosovo, and Mozambique

Since the end of the Cold War, the overwhelming majority of negotiated peace settlements have been premised on the establishment of competitive, multiparty politics. The success of such settlements depends in turn on the degree to which the warring parties can make the adjustment from battlefield to political arena. This article addresses the question of how armed opposition groups are transformed into functional civilian political parties in the aftermath of civil conflict. It argues that the character and degree of commitment such parties make to the post-war political settlement depends on the kinds of challenges that adaptation to the settlement presents for them, as organizations. This article examines the cases of the Kosovo Liberation Army, the Croatian Democratic Union, and the Serbian Democratic Party in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Renamo (Mozambique National Resistance Movement) in Mozambique. Carrie Manning is assistant professor of political science at Georgia State University. Her book,The Politics of Peace in Mozambique: Post-Conflict Democratization, 1992–2000 (Praeger), appeared in 2002.     

Political Competition and Local Social Spending: Evidence from Brazil

Electoral theories of democracy imply electoral competition insures accountability. Using data on local elections, socioeconomic factors, and municipal budgets from more than 5,000 municipalities in Brazil for the years 1996, 2000, and 2004, we find that municipalities with more competitive elections allocate less to social spending compared to municipalities with little political competition. We argue that previous theory on political competition and public goods obscures the critical role that financial resources play in shaping the dynamics of social spending and political competition. Municipalities with small budgets lack the resources necessary to engineer convincing electoral victories. Where resources are negligible, voter turnout is low, and incumbents rarely win reelection. Incumbent parties in municipalities with large financial resources win big. Armed with adequate resources, incumbent parties mobilize voters and win by large margins. This new argument and evidence reconcile contradictory findings in the existing literature on competition and public goods.     

Geostrategic Interest and Democracy Promotion: Evidence from Post-Soviet Space

To become successful, the American policy of promoting democracy abroad needs to be scaled down and decoupled from geopolitics. In the post-Soviet world, the democracy–geopolitics doublespeak breeds cynicism and achieves mixed results at best. Particularly discouraging are the outcomes of democracy promotion in the so-called cleft countries, straddled by a cultural divide. In Ukraine, American foreign policy achieved some success at the price of intensifying inter-regional antagonisms, which subsequently compromised and offset the progress that had been achieved in democratic forms of governance. In Belarus, democracy promotion failed altogether because inter-regional antagonisms in that country are too modest and are therefore difficult to leverage.     

Social Capital and Access to Credit: Evidence from Uganda

We use a nationally representative survey in Uganda to study the links between social capital and financial access. Our results indicate a positive association between individual social capital and access to institutional credit, but no significant relationship between generalised trust and credit access. The effect of individual social capital is more pronounced for poorer people, in rural areas, and in areas where generalised trust is low. Individual social capital seems to promote access especially to semiformal and informal financial institutions.     

Bride Price and Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Rural Senegal

This paper provides evidence about the relationship between bride price payments and fertility decisions in Senegal. Higher bride price payments reduce the fertility pressure for women with results being robust to confounding socio-economic and contextual factors. The fertility-reducing impact is greater for women who are economically dependent on their husbands. In polygamous households and for arranged marriages, a lower bride price increases fertility pressure while in monogamous households and for non-arranged marriages, the bride price does not affect fertility. As bride price payments have less power over (economically) independent women, empowerment will give leeway to girls in traditional societies.