How Strong is the Evidence for the Existence of Poverty Traps? A Multicountry Assessment

Introducing this special collection on asset dynamics and poverty traps, this article assesses evidence on these issues across eight panel data sets in six countries generally not previously considered in this perspective. It examines the importance of assets in relation to chronic poverty and uses parametric and non-parametric methods to test for dynamic asset-based poverty traps. The article finds that chronically poor households have lower levels of assets than others, though does not find evidence of the non-convexities which would imply a multiple dynamic poverty trap. From this base the article introduces the remainder of the articles in this collection which set out many promising approaches to further develop and improve methods and approaches for looking at poverty traps in future.     

The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications

The moral and economic imperatives to intervene in poverty traps motivate the identification of poverty traps and their structural causes so as to inform the design of appropriate policy responses. However, empirical identification remains challenging because of poverty traps’ complexity. After reviewing mechanisms that can generate poverty traps, we focus on one – multiple financial market failures – emphasising its heretofore underappreciated testable implications, including specific behaviours that are rational only in the presence of a poverty trap. We therefore recommend tests for these behaviours rather than more econometrically challenged efforts to directly test for poverty traps in estimated asset dynamics.     

Income and Asset Poverty among Pastoralists in Northern Kenya

In this study we use household panel data collected in Marsabit district of Northern Kenya, to analyse the patterns of livelihood sources and poverty among pastoralists in that area. We estimate income poverty using imputed household income relative to the adjusted poverty line and asset poverty using a regression-based asset index and tropical livestock units (TLU) per capita. Our results indicate that keeping livestock is still the pastoralists’ main source of livelihood, although there is a notable trend of increasing livelihood diversification, especially among livestock-poor households. The majority of households (over 70%) are both income and livestock-poor with few having escaped poverty within the five-year study period. Disaggregating income and asset poverty also reveals an increasing trend of both structurally poor and stochastically nonpoor households. The findings show that the TLU-based asset poverty is a more appropriate measure of asset poverty in a pastoral setting.     

Welfare dynamics in rural Kenya and Madagascar

This paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural Kenya and Madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty. We find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income, including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error, or the predictable, structural component of income based on a household's asset holdings. Our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria, consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis. Furthermore, we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households' defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing.     

The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach

Longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty. While a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty, this paper develops an asset-based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep-rooted, persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes. Drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies, this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long-term, persistent structural poverty, as well as relevant extensions of the popular Foster-Greer-Thorbecke class of poverty measures. The paper closes with reflections on how asset-based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies.     

Poverty traps and nonlinear income dynamics with measurement error and individual heterogeneity

Theories of poverty traps stand in sharp contrast to the view that anybody can make it through hard work and thrift. However, empirical detection of poverty traps is complicated by the lack of long panels, measurement error and attrition. This paper shows how dynamic pseudo-panel methods can overcome these difficulties, allowing estimation of nonlinear income dynamics and testing of the presence of poverty traps. The paper explicitly allows for heterogeneity in income dynamics, to account for the possibility that particular groups of individuals may face traps, even if the average individual does not. These methods are used to examine the evidence for a poverty trap in labour earnings, income and expenditure in urban Mexico and are compared to panel data estimates from a short rotating panel. The results do find evidence of nonlinearities in household income dynamics, and demonstrate large bias in the panel data estimates. Nevertheless, even after allowing for heterogeneity and accounting for measurement error, we find no evidence for the existence of a poverty trap for any group in our sample.     

Do Social Protection Transfers Reduce Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty in Pakistan? Household Level Evidence from Punjab

Empirical studies in different developing countries have investigated the impact of social protection (SP) on ex-post poverty; however, few studies analysed the impact of SP on ex-ante vulnerability to poverty (VtP). This paper contributes to the literature by evaluating the impact of SP on vulnerability to poverty (VtP) and poverty rates among households in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A hierarchical modelling approach is used to analyse the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS-2011) data of about 90,000 households. Matching methods and simultaneous endogenous switching regression are used to control for potential selection bias and estimate average treatment effects. Our results show that SP has a positive impact in reducing household poverty and VtP, but this impact is mainly driven by a short-term flood relief cash transfer programme, pension of government employees and households’ regular purchase from utility store network.     

Assets and Poverty Traps in Rural Bangladesh

Using longitudinal survey from rural Bangladesh, this article examines the determinants of land and asset accumulation over time and explores why some households may be trapped in asset poverty. Non-parametric and parametric methods are used to discern the shape of the asset accumulation path, and whether unique or multiple equilibria exist. We find evidence for concavity of the dynamic asset frontier but no evidence for multiple equilibria. It is suggested that the existence of well-functioning factor markets in rural Bangladesh and elsewhere in South Asia explain the contrasts between our results and those for several African countries.     

Welfare Dynamics in Pakistan and Ethiopia – Does the Estimation Method Matter?

Identifying household-level welfare dynamics and associated dynamic poverty trap thresholds can have important implications for the targeting of poverty reduction policies. The small existing empirical microeconomic literature has found evidence both for and against poverty traps. Using household panel data from rural Pakistan and Ethiopia, this article examines whether these different results are likely driven by differences in estimation methods or whether they reflect actual differences across settings. It applies the estimation methods from the existing literature to the same two datasets and also proposes a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the previous fully parametric and nonparametric approaches. The results suggest that absent any dynamic poverty trap thresholds the effect of using different estimation methods is secondary, having a small influence on the estimated long-term level of household well-being but not the identification of multiple dynamic welfare equilibria and associated dynamic poverty thresholds. Households in rural Pakistan and Ethiopia seem to be stuck in a static, structural-type poverty trap facing an expected level of long-term well-being that places them squarely in poverty.     

Combining Household Income and Asset Data to Identify Livelihood Strategies and Their Dynamics

Current approaches to identifying and describing rural livelihood strategies, and household movements between strategies over time, in developing countries are imprecise. Here we: (i) present a new statistical quantitative approach combining income and asset data to identify household activity choice variables, characterise livelihood strategy clusters, and analyse movements between strategies, and (ii) apply the approach using an environmentally-augmented three-wave household (n = 427) level panel dataset from Nepal. Combining income and asset data provides a better understanding of livelihood strategies and household movements between strategies over time than using only income or asset data. Most households changed livelihood strategy at least once over the two three-year periods. A common pathway out of poverty included an intermediate step during which households accumulate assets through farming, petty trading, and migratory work.     

Assessing the impact of financial liberalisation on stock market volatility in selected developing countries

This article argues for the importance of measuring stock market volatility following financial liberalisation in developing countries. Three alternative indices for measuring volatility are developed; these are used to examine the view that financial liberalisation induces increased asset price volatility. Based on the limited data available, this view is corroborated in the majority of countries investigated.     

Shocks and their consequences across and within households in Rural Zimbabwe

Increasing attention is now being paid to poverty dynamics in developing countries. This work links the extent to which households smooth consumption or smooth assets given income shocks, the empirical evidence on the churning of households in and out of poverty, and the possibility that temporary shocks can have permanent consequences. Using longitudinal data from rural Zimbabwe, this paper extends the discussion of these issues by disaggregating the impact of shocks by levels of asset holdings, by disaggregating the impact of shocks on individual level welfare and by assessing the extent to which such shocks have permanent consequences. By doing so, it assesses the validity of distinguishing between asset and consumption smoothing and provides insights into whether poverty dynamics assessed at the household level provide an adequate picture of dynamics at the individual level.     

Exploring poverty traps and social exclusion in South Africa using qualitative and quantitative data

Recent theoretical work hypothesises that a polarised society like South Africa will suffer a legacy of ineffective social capital and blocked pathways of upward mobility that leaves large numbers of people trapped in poverty. To explore these ideas, this paper employs a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. Novel econometric analysis of asset dynamics over the 1993–98 period identifies a dynamic asset poverty threshold that signals that large numbers of South Africans are indeed trapped without a pathway out of poverty. Qualitative analysis of this period and the period 1998–2001 more deeply examines patterns of mobility, and confirms the continuation of this pattern of limited upward mobility and a low-level poverty trap. In addition, the qualitative data permit a closer look at the specific role played by social relationships. While finding ample evidence of active social capital and networks, these are more helpful for non-poor households. For the poor, social capital at best helps stabilise livelihoods at low levels and does little to promote upward mobility. While there is thus some economic sense to sociability in South Africa, elimination of the polarised economic legacy of apartheid will ultimately require more proactive efforts to assure that households have access to a minimum bundle of assets and to the markets needed to effectively build on those assets over time.     

Poverty Transition in Rural Vietnam: The Role of Migration and Remittances

This study combines insights of the New Economics of Labour Migration with the asset-based approach to welfare dynamics using panel household data from Vietnam. This method allows us to determine whether poverty transitions induced by remittances are actually structural, that is, based on asset growth and therefore long term, or stochastic, that is, based only on short-term increases in income, which implies a risk of falling back into poverty. To control for endogeneity of remittances, we use household fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation. The paper shows that remittances have a positive impact on asset growth and that the impact differs with welfare status and ethnicity.     

Social Learning and Farm Technology in Ethiopia: Impacts by Technology,Network Type,and Poverty Status

Improved farm technologies in Ethiopia display high levels of promise and low rates of adoption. This article studies the impact of social networks on technology adoption focusing on social learning through networks based on physical proximity and those based on intentional relationships. Impacts by network type, technology, and asset poverty status are explored. Social learning is more evident for households not in persistent poverty, for more complex technologies, and within networks based on intentional relationships rather than proximity. Results indicate that technology diffusion in Ethiopia is likely to be enhanced if extension can target intentional networks, rather than spatial clusters.     

Microfinance and Poverty in Bolivia

Both in its institutional range and in its penetration of financial markets, the microfinance sector in Bolivia rivals any in the world, and has played a major part in extracting the macro-economy from meltdown since the mid-1980s. We seek specifically to assess its impact on poverty, and do this through small-sample surveys on four microfinance institutions, two urban and two rural, using a range of poverty concepts: income (generated both through the borrower's enterprise and through the labour market), asset holdings and diversity, and various measures of vulnerability. All the institutions studied had, on balance, positive impacts on income and asset levels, with income impacts correlating negatively with income on account of poor households choosing to invest in low-risk, low-return assets. Microfinance may, however, augment vulnerability: average debt-service ratios of microfinance clients are disturbingly high, and if the coping mechanisms used by borrowers fail, borrowers may be forced out of the microfinance system, possibly resulting in decapitalisation and impoverishment. Poorer households are more restricted in their choice of coping strategy, and many as a consequence 'choose' coping strategies more likely to jeopardise their long-term income prospects, in particular asset sales and cuts in children's schooling. The more successful low-income borrowers are those who have voluntary savings deposits and do not rush into fixed capital purchases too early: collapse back into poverty is associated with multiple crises and the failure of one or more 'safety nets', in particular of one or more 'safety nets', in particular support from a member's solidarity group. The following actions appear to be promising for the further reduction of poverty in Bolivia: stronger efforts to mobilise rural savings, removal of lower limits on loan size, and the introduction of appropriate insurance mechanisms. In comparison with other anti-poverty measures, microfinance appears to be successful and relative cheap at reducing the poverty of those close to the poverty line, but ineffective, by comparison with labour-market and infrastructural measures, in reducing extreme poverty.     

Determinants of Income Mobility and Household Poverty Dynamics in South Africa

This article analyses household income mobility among Africans in South Africa's most populous province, KwaZulu-Natal, between 1993 and 1998. Compared to industrialised and most developing countries, mobility has been quite high, as might have been expected after the transition in South Africa. This finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for. When disaggregating the sources of mobility, it is found that demographic changes and employment changes account for most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment. Using a multivariate analysis, it can be seen that transitory incomes play a large role. Four types of poverty traps are found, associated with large initial household size, poor initial education, poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards the mean.     

Pathways into and out of Poverty: A Study of Rural Household Wealth Dynamics in Kenya

This study identifies the factors associated with smallholder farm households that have risen out of poverty or descended into poverty between 1997 and 2007 in Kenya. The study uses data from a nationwide balanced panel of 1,275 households and data from detailed retrospective ‘life history’ survey of 84 households that had experienced either an appreciable improvement or decline in their asset wealth over the 10-year panel period. The results indicate that household welfare dynamics are associated with a disparate set of idiosyncratic and unexpected shocks, such as death and chronic illness, demographic factors, proximity to infrastructural facilities, as well as intergenerational wealth transfers.     

Remittances,Poverty, Inequality and Welfare: Evidence from the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso

This paper applies Gini and concentration coefficient decomposition as well as the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty index and the Stark-Yitzhaki welfare index to new data from four villages in Burkina Faso, to compare the marginal effects of remittances from intercontinental and intra-African migration on inequality, poverty and social welfare. Evidence is found that intra-African remittances reduce inequality while intercontinental remittances have the opposite effect. Also, it is found that although remittances from intercontinental migration are associated with much lower incidence, depth and severity of poverty, the marginal impact of remittances from this form of migration on social welfare is limited because recipients do not include the rural poor.     

Persistent poverty in North East Ghana

This paper explores local poverty and wealth inequality in the Upper East Region of northern Ghana in the period from 1975–89. Land was not scarce and the social management of household membership and household labour were critical to household security, but this social management was not independent of wealth status. There was a virtuous circle between wealth and household labour supply and a vicious circle between poverty and small household size. Poverty traps existed so that those with too little labour and too little wealth engaged in strategies which entrenched them in poverty.