Miracle to meltdown: A pathology of the East Asian financial crisis

The financial crisis in East Asia was made more dramatic by the fact that the region's performance in terms of economic growth over the preceding decade had been widely perceived as a 'miracle'. What was it that transformed the region's fortunes, and what are the chances for a speedy economic recovery? Systematic analysis reveals that, while there is no unicausal explanation, and while few if any commentators anticipated the crisis before the event, the fundamental difference from previous international financial crises is the extreme indebtedness of the corporate sector of the crisis countries. Private sector repayment difficulties and the associated banking crises triggered the sudden withdrawal of capital and the collapse of exchange rates. Failure to address the underlying private sector debt overhang, and reliance instead on conventional macroeconomic policy solutions, have led to a decline in output and a depreciation in exchange rates which have been far greater than need have been the case.     

The Return to Foreign Aid

Abstract

We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate of return on public capital.     

Land Accumulation Dynamics in Developing Country Agriculture

Abstract

Understanding land accumulation dynamics is relevant for policy-makers interested in the economic effects of land inequality in developing country agriculture. We thus explore and simultaneously test the leading theories of micro-level land accumulation dynamics using unique panel data from Paraguay. The results suggest that farm growth varies systematically with farm size – a formal rejection of stochastic growth theories (that is, Gibrat’s Law) – and that titled land area may have considerable influence on land accumulation. Furthermore, our estimates indicate that a dualistic agrarian structure is the likely product of the unfettered operation of land markets.     

Foreign aid and the economic growth of developing countries (LDCs): Further evidence

The objectives of this article are to revisit the critical role that foreign aid presently plays in the economic growth of the LDCs and to examine the nature of its utilization in those countries which heavily rely on foreign aid. Other sources of economic growth such as capital (physical and human capital), raw labor, technological changes, and the degree of political and civil liberties will also be considered. Using average cross-sectional data for eighty countries over the 1971–1990 period, the study shows that foreign aid has a statistically positive effect on economic growth in developing countries. Lack of political and civil liberties is found to have a negative, but statistically marginal impact on economic growth. A policy implication which may be drawn from the study is that foreign capital inflow can have a beneficial effect by supplementing domestic savings rather than replacing them. Bichaka Fayissa, Ph.D., is Professor of Economics at Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN. He has published in theInternational Journal of Social Economics, World Development, Keil World Economics, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Applied Economics, Economia Internazionale, Journal of Economics and Finance, Journal of Legal Economics, and several other journals.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual,Methodological and Policy Issues,and Selected Empirical Findings

Abstract

Global integration has increased the international linkages of financial markets for emerging market countries. A key channel for the international transmission of inflation and economic cycles is from exchange rate movements to domestic prices, known as exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). This article reviews the conceptual, methodological and policy issues connected with ERPT in emerging market and developing countries, and critically surveys selected empirical studies. A key contribution is to categorise and compare the heterogeneous methodologies used to extract ERPT measures in the empirical literature. Single equation models and systems methods are contrasted; frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable ERPT estimates are highlighted. The discerning policy-maker needs to ascertain by which methods ERPT measures were calculated, the controls and restrictions applied, and the time frame and stability of the estimates.     

Automotive global value chains in Mexico: a mirage of development?

ABSTRACT

International monetary organisations argue the ‘developing countries’ should foster linkages to the world economy as a means to overcome backwardness. In this article we refute the narrative that Mexico has experienced industrial upgrading. Rather, industrial growth in Mexico over the last 40 years has been shaped by neoliberal economic policies which have turned the Mexican economy into an export-led manufacturing platform designed to supply the North American market, sustained by a precarious labour market. As a result, Mexico occupies the most labour-intensive and low value-added segments of regional production chains. To make this argument, we perform an in-depth analysis of the Mexican automotive industry, demonstrating that instead of being an engine for domestic industrial development, the auto industry has become a dominant economic sector through productive hyper-specialisation concentrated in the northern Mexican border states, a reliance on transnational capital, particularly from the United States, a disconnect with domestic markets, and the super-exploitation of labour.     

Changes in human capital and earnings inequality: Recent evidence from Brazil 1

Abstract

This paper estimates changes in the rates of return to human capital across the earnings distribution using data from over a 10-year period for Brazil. It uses these estimates to simulate the separate impacts of changes in returns to skills and changes in the supply of skills on earnings inequality. Evidence points strongly to growing inequality in rates of return to education in Brazil. This finding suggests that recent macroeconomic and trade reforms have been of most benefit to the skilled rather than the unskilled. Supporting evidence points to an improved competitiveness in the labour market, with workers increasingly rewarded for productivity. However, although increases in returns to education are more pronounced at the top of the earnings distribution, this did not in practice led to increased inequality. This is because levels of education and other labour market-rewarded endowments have increased and offset the rate of return effect. Appropriate education policy is therefore an essential partner for macroeconomic and trade reform if a developing economy is to avoid worsening income inequality.     

Economic Fluctuations and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Importance of Import Instability

The traditional thesis that export instability (XI) is deleterious to economic growth in developing economies has received mixed empirical results. For African countries, recent research suggests that the effect of XI is weak, but that capital (investment) instability (KI) adversely influences economic growth. The current study argues that in many of these nations, imports are likely to be critical to the growth process, while exports represent only one of the various sources of investment resources. Hence, import instability (MI) may pose a more serious problem than XI in hindering economic growth. Employing 1968-1986 World Bank data for 33 sub-Saharan African countries, XI, KI and MI variables are calculated for each country as the standard errors around the respective 'best-fitted' trends over the sample period. These instability measures and additional World Bank data are then used to estimate an augmented production function that controls for the effects of labour, capital, and exports. The study finds that although KI is still a relevant argument of the production function, MI appears to be even more important, while XI is extraneous.     

Savings,investment and foreign capital flows: Have capital markets become more integrated?

How mobile is capital across countries? Does the expansion of world financial markets in the 1970s and 1980s reflect a tendency towards one integrated world capital market, accessible for both industrialised and developing countries? Or, alternatively, are savings and investment rates for each economy closely tied because of international capital market imperfections? This article critically assesses recent studies that have tested these hypotheses empirically for industrialised countries, presents new evidence and expands data analysis to include the group of developing countries. Contrary to recent studies it is concluded that across industrialised countries domestic investment and savings are now much less closely linked than in the 1960s. But the larger capital market integration does not extend to the group of developing countries despite their increased use of funds from international financial markets to finance domestic investment. The exploratory nature of the data analysis only permits to draw some suggestive, though important, conclusions for economic theory and policy.     

Immigration to Ghana

Abstract

The globalization of international labor migration is manifest in all countries now engaging in migration systems that are growing in size and complexity and producing an increasing diversity of flows. Furthermore, many of the processes that create and drive these systems operate on a worldwide basis, the consequence of economic globalization, capital mobility and widespread realization by governments that human resources can be traded for profit like any other resource.

This paper looks at Ghana's immigration policy in the light of its economic situation. It characterizes Ghana's immigration policy as geared towards using immigration to attract critical foreign investment, transfer of technology and human resource capital/skills for socio-economic development. Running concurrently is the policy to prevent illegal immigration, transnational crime, economic exploitation, social corruption and human trafficking.

The paper concludes that when the economic situation of Ghana was buoyant in the 1960s it attracted many immigrants especially from neighboring West African countries, however when the country's economy saw a down turn, immigrants were used as a convenient scapegoat and many were expelled. The irony though is that while the current poor economic situation of Ghana has made Ghanaians to immigrate to other countries, the political stability of the country does attract other West Africans and non-Africans and it is affording the country the opportunity to streamline its immigration and citizenship laws.     

Corruption,Privatisation and Economic Growth in Post-communist Countries

Abstract

This article empirically investigates the effects of corruption and privatisation on economic growth in the post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR. We use a corruption and privatisation augmented open-economy leader–follower endogenous growth model to derive our research hypotheses. In this setting, corruption, privatisation and external openness jointly determine the per capita income in the follower economy. This model predicts that economies with higher shares of private ownership, lower corruption, and higher external openness enjoy higher rates of growth. Our empirical verification of these predictions is based on a panel of 29 post-communist countries during the period 1996–2014. Our estimation results confirm the negative effects of corruption, while the positive effects of privatisation are limited to small-scale privatisation.     

The Impact of Household Structure on Female Autonomy in Developing Countries

Abstract

Joint household structures in which several generations co-reside in a single house are common across developing countries. Such households may confer benefits on all the family members through household public goods with the patriarch exercising greater control over resources. Therefore, the household structure may affect the bargaining power of its members. This paper estimates the effect of joint versus nuclear household structure in India on the autonomy of women and their labour force participation and the heterogeneity in the effects by income, caste, and region. I use an instrumental variable approach and find that women living in nuclear households have greater decision-making power.     

Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight,Institutions and Debt

Capital flight undermines economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid, and sometimes drains more resources from poor countries than does debt service. In an analysis of a large panel of developing and emerging market countries using annual data for 1970–2001, we show that both institutions and macro policies robustly affect capital flight. Our study also supports the existence of a revolving door relationship between debt and capital flight. More notably we find countries with weak institutions have a greater propensity to accumulate debt because weak institutions spur capital flight, which, in turn, creates a financing need.     

Introduction to a Special Section on ‘Exchange Rate Pass-through in Developing and Emerging Markets’

Abstract

The interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in emerging market and developing economies has burgeoned in the last two decades. Small, open and trade-dependent economies embody special features that can make it difficult to obtain reliable estimates of ERPT. This Special Section includes a survey of recent research in developing and emerging market countries on ERPT, focusing on the monetary policy relevance of ERPT.

The frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable ERPT estimates are highlighted. Many empirical issues raised in the survey are illustrated by the macro- and the micro-economic empirical studies on South Africa (SA) included in this Special Section, and an earlier published JDS paper on ERPT in SA.     

The wto and patenting of life forms: Policy options for developing countries

This paper argues that whether developing countries will be able to protect their plant genetic resources and the right of local communities to control and enjoy the benefits of their traditional knowledge will be determined both by policies adopted by the World Trade Organization ( wto ) and by the domestic policies these nations implement within their respective countries. Drawing on empirical data from a survey of various stakeholders on the issue of 'patenting of life forms', we argue that developing countries must unite behind the demand for a minimum wto standard that recognises and upholds the principle of 'prior informed consent'. 1 The paper also presents a number of domestic policy options available to developing countries to protect their key social, cultural and economic rights with regard to the patentability of life forms.     

Capital flows and financial stability: the mexican experience

This paper argues that capital inflows that are not well absorbed by the private sector will cause financial instability under a fixed exchange rate regime. Whether capital inflows, particularly portfolio inflows, are good or bad as perceived by the recipient emerging market depends on how they are allocated and used. They can, if absorbed properly, contribute to a reduction in the cost of capital and to domestic capital formation and economic growth. On the other hand, they can also flood the domestic market, build up official reserves, and appreciate the real exchange rate. Moreover, they are very sensitive to political and economic shocks. Empirical analysis of Mexico's recent experience reveals that the capital influx into Mexico in the past decade did not contribute much to capital formation and economic growth. Instead, they were to a large degree absorbed by official reserves and imports for consumption. Capital inflows were a major factor in Mexico's real exchange rate appreciation. Capital flows in Mexico are found to be adversely affected by U.S. interest rates.     

Inequality and Growth: Uncovering the Main Conclusions from the Empirics

Abstract

This paper is a critical survey of the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on economic growth. We conclude that it is most likely that the disparities found in the results are due to differences in the type of countries and time periods included in the samples, the variable used to measure inequality, the structure of the data, and the estimation techniques. These findings suggest that the mechanisms that link inequality to growth are likely to operate differently in different circumstances, an element that may offer important guidelines for both policy makers and researchers.     

An inquiry into quasi‐credit contracts: The role of reciprocal credit and interlinked deals in small‐scale fishing communities

The use of currency depreciation as a means of strengthening the balance of payments has long been a contentious issue amongst developing countries, especially in their negotiations with the IMF. This article reviews the various ways in which depreciation might exert its impact. A study of the empirical evidence suggests that it may be both an effective and cost effective instrument in many developing countries, even though exceptions do exist. Compared with alternative balance of payments policies, use of the exchange rate emerges as possessing many advantages. It is concluded that greater emphasis should be placed on the exchange rate in the context of IMF programmes than has perhaps been the case in recent years.     

Do Economic Linkages through FDI Lead to Institutional Change? Assessing Outcomes in Kazakhstan,Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can deliver benefits beyond the provision of capital, such as efficiency gains. We argue that the theorised positive effects of economic linkage are reduced when linkages are based on natural resources. Domestic elite coalitions supporting reform are also weaker in countries with extensive natural resources. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have high-value natural resources and significant FDI, making them most likely cases for reform. Kyrgyzstan is a contrasting case as it has few natural resources. We find that the institutional reforms we would anticipate because of linkages have not occurred and those that exist are often cosmetic.     

National economic performance and its determinants: an empirical analysis

This paper tests critical determinants of national economic performance over time and across different countries. The effects of countries' infrastructure, human capital, innovative ability and cost of capital on economic performance were studied. Countries were grouped into developed, developing and least developed economies. Results showed infrastructure positively related to national economic performance. Human skill was also positively related to economic performance but its effect was confined to least developed countries in recent years. Finally, innovative ability was positively related to economic performance of developed countries. The study showed that the importance of innovative ability as a determinant of national economic performance has increased over time. Implications are drawn for the different economies based on the findings.