中日两国在东亚区域内贸易中地位的变化及其影响

东亚区域内贸易比重的迅速上升是现阶段东亚贸易发展的一个重要特征。中国和日本作为东亚区域内两个最大的经济体,两国在东亚区域内贸易中的地位和影响力的变动对相互之间的经济合作以及区域内经济合作模式的选择,具有十分重大的影响。本文在分析东亚区域内贸易发展现状的基础上,从中间产品和最终产品的贸易结构与贸易竞争压力的角度,分析了中日两国在东亚区域内贸易中地位的变动及其影响。     

韩国与东亚地区主义的未来

本文首先回顾了东亚各国签订双边和多边自由贸易协定的历程,认为随着东亚各国相互依赖的加强,东亚的经济一体化将进一步加深,并提出了未来东亚地区主义发展的三种可能方案,进而分析了各种方案可能性的程度。韩国无论在经济领域还是战略方面,都应该在建立东亚合作的进程中发挥重要作用。一定程度上,东盟和韩国在东亚地区自由贸易协定达成的过程中拥有更广阔的空间,同时在中日之间也发挥着协调者和推动者的重要角色。     

论东亚一体化进程中的领导权问题

最近几年,东亚一体化的问题被提到了东亚各国领导人的议事日程,在全球化和区域经济一体化的浪潮下,东亚各国别无选择,只能加强本区域的经济合作,以促进本区域的繁荣和发展.在东亚一体化的进程中,不能不面对领导权或叫主导权的问题,这个领导权或叫主导权不是自封的,也不是别人任命的,而是在区域经济合作发展的浪潮中被各国推举出来的,她不仅要有推动本区域各国合作的主动性,而且还要有一定的奉献精神,愿意为本区域合作发展做出一定的牺牲.由于东亚地区政治、经济、文化、制度等方面的多元化,决定了该地区一体化进程中领导权问题的特殊性.     

Emerging New East Asian Regionalism

East Asian regionalism is emerging starting with a process of “ASEAN plus three” cooperation and moving to a final East Asian Community. The foundation of East Asian regionalism lies in increasing regional common or shared interests. The significance of East Asian cooperation and integration is its developing process. “10?+?3” framework is not just an economic cooperation process but also has political significance. The process of East Asian cooperation plays a dual role in community building: reconciliation among the countries, and cultivation of each member itself. The major role of regional institutional building is peace making through cooperation under a regional framework. The cooperation between China and Japan is crucial for East Asian Community building.     

东亚合作与中韩关系

探究东亚合作首先要区分东亚、东亚合作以及东亚与东亚合作所确指的行为体三个基本概念。东亚合作本质上是一种单一的经济合作进程,在安全合作领域存在严重的不足。其前景大致包括两种,一是既有框架下的东亚合作,二是继续泛化为亚洲合作。在东亚合作的视域下,中韩经济合作与安全合作不仅有利于发展中韩战略合作伙伴关系,也有助于东亚经济合作尤其是安全合作进程的推进。     

多边主义与东亚高政治合作

中国在国际关系中积极倡导多边主义,充分体现了中国外交与时俱进的精神和当代中国外交文化的先进性内涵.推动东亚政治合作是面向21世纪中国奉行多边主义外交战略的重要步骤,它事关东亚能否崛起为世界重要一极.中国在东亚的多边主义战略目标是构建一个和谐的东亚政治经济和安全环境.由于传统和历史的原因,东亚国家一直比较重视在"低政治"领域展开合作,但对"高政治"领域的合作却畏首畏尾,显得比较缓慢和迟钝.其实,东亚国家在战后初期就存在着大国主导"高政治"领域合作的空间.东亚虽然是世界主要的文明发祥地、战后各主要国家也先后实现了经济的起飞,但是政治上的作用却未能很好发挥出来.相反,东亚却成为霸权主义和强权政治轻易得手和随意操纵的地方,特别是由于政治合作意愿淡薄,直接导致了东亚大国政治上的分散化和政治问题的频繁发生,进而也威胁到经济社会发展领域,中日关系就是一个突出的例子.解决朝核问题的多边主义模式应该机制化,这是东亚"高政治"合作的重要起点,而中国应该成为该机制化过程中的主导力量.     

论东亚经济共同体的形成基础及其发展趋势

近20年来,随着区域经济一体化的进展,东亚各经济体的贸易和投资关系日益密切。就贸易依存度而言,东亚已接近一体化程度最高的欧盟,堪称超越政治制度差异而组成的自然经济区域的典范。东亚区域大部分与东亚汉文化圈重叠,各国有相近的文化和价值观。相比欧盟地区,东亚地区历史上长期和睦相处,在东亚商贸圈内互通有无。因此,东亚各国的经济合作有着坚实的历史、人文和地理基础。随着经济一体化程度的加深,有利于促进一体化的政府间制度性安排也必将应运而生。当今各方政治领导人的主观意向,只能某种程度延缓或加速这种趋势。     

东亚货币合作中的美元因素

国际美元本位制使美国获得了主导东亚地区货币政策的软权力,国际美元本位制的"特里芬困境"对于东亚共同货币的构建也存在着难以避免的外部效应.东亚美元化削减了东亚货币合作的所得收益,而强势美元政策使东亚国家面对美元霸权时陷入进退两难境地,从而在一定程度上影响了东亚货币合作最终目标的实现.在东亚货币合作的过程中,一种理想化的共同货币区模式仍然需要不断的发展和完善,如何利用和应对美元的影响则是东亚国家亟待解决的一大问题.     

韩国FTA政策与东亚区域主义的未来

本文首先阐述了韩国过去与现在的贸易政策,以及韩国FTA政策从区域内向区域外的转变,并分别从国际、地区和国内三个层面详细分析了这一转变的原因。在此基础上,探讨了韩国跨区域自由贸易协定对东亚区域主义的影响。随着更多的亚洲国家签订自由贸易协定,将对东亚区域经济一体化产生积极影响。东亚跨区域自由贸易协定面临的最大挑战是,东亚各国是否有能力来共同协调相互间的利益。     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

The United States and East Asia in an age of financialization

This article starts from Peter Gowan's notion of a Dollar-Wall Street Regime (DWSR) characterized by financial deregulation, the dollar as the world's currency, large international capital flows, and frequent financial crises. The author argues that the DWSR has relied on a special economic relationship between the United States and East Asia, characterized by large East Asian trade and current account surpluses with the United States and the investment of East Asian dollar holdings in U.S. capital markets. For some time both parties benefited from this relationship, but eventually it gave rise to financial crises in East Asia. Thus, Japan's financial crisis around 1990 and the 1997/98 East Asian financial crisis are both related to economic over-accumulation caused by the buildup of currency reserves through trade with the United States. Attempts at East Asian monetary integration since 1997 are viewed as a potential challenge to the DWSR. These attempts have however been blocked or rendered harmless by regional divisions as well as by U.S. resistance. While an East Asian political challenge to theDWSRis unlikely for the time being, the special U.S.-East Asian economic relationship may become substantially weakened by the growing problems of the U.S. economy.     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP)的成本收益分析:中国的视角

早在谈判初期,TPP就宣称将达成一个全面的、高水平的面向21世纪的自由贸易协议,但事实上,TPP将无助于加强亚太地区的经济联系,更无法解决亚太地区的"意大利面条碗效应"问题。关于TPP的成本收益分析表明,经济小国或许能够从TPP中获益,但是对大国而言,TPP基本没有经济价值。TPP只是美国应对东亚合作、获得非传统经济利益的工具。从中国角度看,长期内,克服TPP负面影响的根本途径是扩大内需;中期内则需要与日本共同推动实现东亚合作,确保中国在整个TPP博弈中获得次优结果。     

“东亚共同体”建设的障碍与出路:韩国的视角

本文认为推动韩中日三国的合作是实现"东亚共同体"目标的关键所在。原因不仅在于韩中日三国经济占整个东亚地区经济的比重较大、对世界的影响力极为重要,还在于韩中日三国间开展经济合作的难度较大。中国学者大多认为,由于历史问题、领土纷争、政治制度差异以及区域外美国势力的干预,韩中日三国间缺乏信任。而这一系列的因素正是阻碍东亚一体化建设进程的障碍。本文认为,欧洲整合的历史经验即新功能主义理论,值得东亚地区学习与借鉴。韩中日整合的示范作用,势必外溢到整个东亚地区,进而带动区域一体化进程,从而最终实现"东亚共同体"的目标。     

East Asia's new economic integration strategy: Moving beyond the FTA

After the Asian currency crisis, a number of cooperative efforts within an ASEAN?+?3 (APT) framework and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between the countries were implemented side-by-side in East Asia.1 1. ASEAN?+?3 meetings were started in 1997 at the ASEAN 30^th anniversary meeting, to which Japan, Korea, and China were invited. Naturally, the motivation for regional cooperation was heightened in the face of the crisis. View all notes An East Asia Summit is scheduled for the end of 2005. If a summit were held, Japan, China, and Korea would be able to participate in regional cooperation along with ASEAN, as equal partners rather than guests, and the discussion about forming a community, the East Asia Community, would reach a new stage.2 2. The exact definition of “East Asian Community” is not necessarily clear, but at the ASEAN business investment summit in October 2004, Prime Minister Koizumi said in his speech that strengthening FTAs and other economic cooperation, implementing joint economic reforms, and closing the development gap were some of the issues that needed to be addressed when building a community. However, there has not been any discussion about the organization of the East Asian Community, such as establishment of treaties or an office. View all notes However, compared to the largely unobjectionable strengthening of “cooperation,” free trade under an official FTA might require adjusting various economic interests, and there is no guarantee that the merits of free trade will outweigh the costs of these adjustments.3 3. It is well known that WTO Article 24 is essentially an FTA agreement, requiring that “substantially all” trade restrictions be lifted within 10 years, but developing countries are exempt from this particular requirement through an enabling clause. The definition of “substantially all” is itself vague, and because of the enabling clause, the majority of FTAs between developing countries are limited to low-level FTAs. The FTA between China and ASEAN is also subject to an enabling clause. View all notes If for a number of reasons the FTA never goes beyond an APEC-style “voluntarism,” the East Asian economic integration on which the community will be built will be a long time coming. For integration to move steadily forward, a new approach is needed that is different from that of the West and that reflects the political and economic structure of East Asia. This paper addresses the issues and dilemmas that have emerged from the complex FTA negotiations in recent years, and proposes a new integrated approach that reflects the structure of East Asia.     

Trade and investment in Southeast Asian development

Expansion of foreign trade and investment has been a vital factor underlaying the high economic growth of the Southeast Asian economies over the last ten years. As East and Southeast Asian economies continue to deregulate and prosper, trade and investment flows are becoming increasingly interconnected within the region. The character of this regional economic integration, however, has shifted recently. The role of the Japanese has declined while that of China and the overseas Chinese has boomed. Whereas China has absorbed huge amounts of foreign investment, investment to the Southeast Asian economies appears to be weakening significantly. This weakening of investment is occurring just as many Southeast Asian countries struggle to uppgrade the technical levels of their production of goods and services to accommodate the rising wages and income levels that are fundamental to sustained and broad-based increases in standards of living throughout the region.     

论加拿大政府的能源出口多元化政策

美国页岩气革命、亚洲地区能源需求增长、中东局势不稳定,影响了全球能源供求关系,驱动加拿大政府寻求更加多元的能源出口地。哈珀政府和小特鲁多政府积极实施能源出口多元化政策,加强输油管线建设,丰富能源出口产品类型,加强与他国特别是亚洲国家的经贸合作。这种能源出口多元化政策改善了加拿大能源出口环境,提升了加拿大能源在国际市场上的竞争力。但加拿大能源出口多元化战略也面临系列挑战,如能源行业的发展受到国内因素的限制、出口市场面临来自其他能源出口国的强力竞争,还有加拿大与大国关系的倒退等。     

中日东亚货币合作——国际关系视角的分析

当今国际政治经济格局与美元霸权是东亚货币合作的大背景,在这一背景下,东亚货币合作有着更深刻的国际利益分配的潜在内涵,而不只是单纯的区域货币合作问题.美、日、中三方的利益关切共同推动和影响着东亚货币合作的进程.日元和人民币都不具备独立作为东亚主导货币的条件,东亚各国或地区的经济发展水平差异较大,货币合作的政治基础比较薄弱等现实条件,促使合作成为中日双方的最佳选择,其中,中日双方政治互信的改善对东亚货币合作尤为重要.     

Challenges for currency cooperation in East Asia

The defects of the current international financial system are creating tremendous distortions in the economies of East Asia. For the time being, most of the developing countries in East Asia have no choice but to adopt some sort of a flexible, wider band system (crawling band) while resorting to capital control when necessary, in order to avoid the recurrence of the Asian currency crisis. Japan's approach to building a stable international financial system in East Asia has gone through several stages since the late 1970s. Though the latest approach of setting up the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) is a step in the right direction, the ABF has severe limitations in reducing the risks for the developing countries in Asia. The ABF needs to be replaced by the Asian Bond Corporation (ABC) in order to develop an international capital market in Asia and use the abundant saving in Asia for financing the growth of Asia. In the process of expanding the activities of the ABC, Asia can adopt the notional common currency based on a basket of major currencies. That notional currency will pave the way toward introducing the Asian common currency, which can be the ultimate goal for the economic cooperation and integration in East Asia. In the meantime, while enhancing currency cooperation, East Asia needs a lender of the last resort in order to keep its economy from collapsing from another currency attack. Japan has been trying to play that role and is poised to take that responsibility as the largest and the most developed economy in the region. International capital markets and a truly international currency must be supported by numerous institutions and intellectual frameworks. Asia is yet to build those institutions. To help build those institutions, we in East Asia need to establish a new international research institution which would coordinate the strenuous intellectual efforts needed for building institutions that bolster the international capital market in Asia. The envisaged new institute can be dubbed the "Asian Monetary Institute," or "AMI."     

The rise of china and the future of east asian integration

China is rising as the fastest growing largest economy and thereby leading a market-driven economic integration in East Asia. At the same time, nationalism is also rising and constraining East Asian countries from forming a state-driven regional community. This paper examines the political economy of interdependence and nationalism that is taking place in East Asia. Simply put, its central theme is that the degree of interdependence, especially between China and other countries, is deepening, and as a result, is pulling East Asia toward regional integration, but due to the rising tide of nationalism, it is far short of forming an actual community. In order to build a community, therefore, such economic trend must be propelled by political leadership and will. In elaborating on this thesis, the paper analyzes the trade and production networks centered on China, the efforts to promote regional integration in ASEAN?+?3, the nationalist rivalry between Japan and China in negotiating FTAs, and the difficulties in achieving Sino–Japanese reconciliation. Finally, the paper proposes a Northeast Asian Forum among Japan, South Korea and China while the US remains as a stabilizing force in East Asia.