GEORGE W. BUSH AND ASIA: IN THE SHADOW OF 11 SEPTEMBER

Traditionally seen as a President consumed by the war on terror, George W. Bush is frequently portrayed as being relatively uninterested in Asia, and unable to outline a vision or a strategy to China, America’s Asian allies and Asian multilateral mechanisms. This article will revisit Bush’s policy on Asia and show a president who guided the United States with a policy that balanced the need to combat global terrorism and locate a focus on Asia. He faced the dilemmas of building cooperative relations with a rising China while trying to foster American alliances and partnerships in Asia, and managing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Utilizing qualitative content analysis as the main research method, the article will demonstrate that the Bush administration had not a lack of focus on Asia and that Bush’s diplomacy to Asia should be recognized as one of the most significant achievements of his presidency.     

The rise and fall of conservative reform in the United States: George W. Bush and the transformation of the Reagan legacy

Americans often remark that 9/11 changed their nation forever. Conservatives rarely note, however, that the attacks also changed the effort at conservative reform that began with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Reagan preached strength in foreign policy but rarely used force to fight the Cold War. On the home front, Reagan pursued neo-liberalism within the limits of political prudence, under the influence of neo-conservative ideology among other factors. Reagan's Republican successor George W. Bush has used force in pursuit of democratic nation-building while expanding the American welfare state at a pace not seen since the 1960s. If elected, Bush's opponent, Senator John Kerry, might face a Republican Congress and thus gridlock on domestic policy. Kerry also favors a more realistic stance for the nation in foreign affairs. Ironically, the revival of the Reagan legacy of conservative reform may hinge on the defeat of the Republican incumbent, a defeat that could open the possibility of reclaiming Reagan's party for the cause of limited government and individual liberty.     

American policy toward Beijing, 1989–1990: The role of president Bush and the White House staff

The Tiananmen massacre of June 1989 created a major crisis in U.S. policy toward China. President Bush and his aides on the National Security Council staff took the lead in formulating the U.S. response to the crisis. The president took charge personally in dealing with various issues during the next two years. He strove hard to maintain a balanced policy that would allow for continued U.S. involvement with the people and leaders of China. In the crisis atmosphere of 1989–1990, the president appeared to judge that it was important to narrow sharply the circle of officials who would manage U.S. policy toward China. In part, this was because the president was attempting to strike a difficult balance in U.S. policy. On the one hand, he was attempting to elicit positive gestures from Beijing's beleaguered leaders in the wake of Tiananmen. On the other hand, he was attempting to avoid what he judged were overly punitive and counterproductive U.S. measures against China, which were being pressed on the administration by U.S. leaders in the Congress, media and elsewhere. The president and his close advisors took steps to ensure that State Department and other U.S. officials avoided comment on the most sensitive policy issue of 1990—the extension of most-favored-nation tariff treatment to China. By the end of 1990, however, the president's policy efforts had not stilled congressional debate or restored a consensus in U.S. China policy. President Bush still labored under the misperception in many quarters that he was less interested than others in human rights in China, was overly attentive to the interests of Chinese leaders, and stressed excessively China's alleged strategic importance for the United States. In fact, the Chinese government's relatively constructive role in world affairs, especially over such vital issues as the 1990–1991 Persian Gulf crisis, appeared to do more to win U.S. support for the president's carefully balanced approach to China than the efforts by administrative leaders to explain the policy.     

IRAN OBSERVED: THE RISE OF THE IRANIAN NEO-CONSERVATIVES

McDowall relates how in 2005, contrary to the predictions of many western observers, Ahmadinejad was elected as President of Iran, reflecting popular disillusion with the reformist president, Khatami, and the rise of a new generation of politicians, whose relationships had been forged during the war with Iraq. Ahmadinejad came to power at an opportune moment: he could profile himself as an opponent of America and Israel. Wholesale changes in personnel formed the other mark of his revolution. Four years on, his populist economic policies have not proved effective, which could be significant in terms of the 2009 presidential elections. The crucial question is whether there is a suitable opposition candidate who might run against him. This is the edited text of the lecture which he gave to the Society on Wednesday 7 May 2008.     

South African foreign policy in the post-Mbeki period

President Thabo Mbeki's resignation in September 2008 six months before the expected end of his term was triggered by the recall issued by the ANC National Executive Committee. It is highly unlikely that any major changes in foreign policy will be made by the caretaker government of President Kgalema Motlanthe before the 2009 elections. However, the significant changes in the domestic political environment signal the start of a new era in South Africa's transformation — what might be called the ‘post post-apartheid period’. This paper explores what those changes might entail, especially in the realm of foreign policy. After reflecting on the legacy of Mbeki's foreign policy, the paper considers the potential implications of the relevant resolutions agreed at the December 2007 ANC National Conference in Polokwane. Constraints on South African foreign policy towards the African continent are considered, especially with regard to perception versus reality of its economic and political hegemony as well as its complex identity as a nation. In light of this analysis and the inevitable impact of the current global economic crisis, the paper concludes with a series of recommendations for a new vision and agenda for South Africa's foreign policy under the government to be elected in 2009.     

Explicit Narcotization: U.S. Policy Toward Colombia During the Samper Administration

Suspecting that his electoral campaign had received contributions from the Cali drug cartel, the U.S. government considered Colombian president Ernesto Samper (1994–98) an enemy in the drug war. U.S. antidrug policy accordingly targeted not just illicit crop cultivation, traffickers, and money laundering but also the democratically elected president himself. In many ways, U.S. policy became obsessed with bringing down Samper, an "explicit narcotization" that had severe consequences for the two countries' relationship. This case study analyzes the often complex interactions between dominant and subordinate states, especially when the dominant state's involvement in the subordinate state is driven by domestic political concerns.     

Post-Hegemonic Climate Politics?

The article argues that the effects of a new US president on global climate politics will be rather less than might be expected. This is partly because the rhetorical differences between Bush, his predecessor Clinton and President Obama mask great continuities in US climate change politics since the early 1990s. It is also because, unlike in other issue areas, the EU has moved into a position of clear international leadership, which is likely to provoke diplomatic conflict, both for standard reasons of realpolitik but more precisely because of the different growth strategies pursued by each side and the different implications of those strategies for climate policy. Finally, the emergence of a dense pattern of transnational climate governance will increasingly constrain the options for either side in pursuing new climate change agreements after 2012.     

The Bush Administration's 'Alliance-Based' East Asia Policy

The US will face major foreign policy challenges in East Asia in the twenty-first century. In this article, Ralph A. Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, examines the Bush administration's policy towards East Asia which he argues continues to be alliance-based. The principal issues include: the precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula; China's potential emergence as a regional power and the sensitive topic of the Taiwan Strait, Japan's struggle with economic and constitutional reform and an unstable Indonesia. The administration's stated commitment to missile defense has been well publicized and the security implications of this for the region are also examined by Cossa. Although a ''Vision statement'' on the Asia-Pacific is still lacking and needed, he argues that the basic components of the Bush administration's Asia strategy appear to be well-formed.     

South Africa and Japan: Between domestic reform and global reach

Beset by shifting public opinion and a rising chorus of calls for early withdrawal, the US president has outlined a plan for successfully completing his administration's project in Iraq. But victory means something very different for the US than it does for Iraqis themselves, and defining the agenda on Washington's terms risks prospects for lasting stability.     

The African renaissance and the Caribbean

In May 2010 South African President Jacob Zuma will have been in office for one year. During this time, the Zuma administration has been far less ambitious in its foreign policy than previous administrations. However, South Africa is not in a position where it is able to withdraw from foreign engagement, as regional issues — such as Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Swaziland — continue to demand attention. The Zuma administration's approach in the future, in terms of both substance and style, will need to be informed by lessons from past engagement, including South African peacekeeping efforts in countries such as the DRC and Burundi, and South African mediation efforts in countries such as Angola, Côte d'Ivoire and the Comoros. Certainly, South Africa's record of success in taking on international responsibilities over the past 10 years has been mixed, but there is scope for past experience to shape future engagement positively. Indications of this can be seen, for example, in Zuma's efforts to redress former President Thabo Mbeki's clumsy mediation efforts in Angola by deciding to make his first state visit as South Africa's president to Luanda. Zuma's approach to Zimbabwe could build on the foundation set by Mbeki's long engagement with that country.     

Japanese Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Balancing Economy and Security

Abstract

Although the quest for oil has long been a central concern for resource-poor Japan, its foreign policy in the Middle East does not simply reflect a mercantilist interest in the region's resources. Its desire to remain close to the United States during the North Korea crisis and its nascent competition with China are also critical factors in Japan's Middle East policy. However, Japan lacks an integrated strategy toward the Middle East and as a result the various components of its policy are not always compatible. Hence, while Japan has firmly backed the Bush administration's Iraq policies, and begun discussing a possible free-trade agreement with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it has also, until quite recently, simultaneously pursued closer relations with Iran. In lieu of coherent regional strategy, Japan instead possesses a clearly prioritized sense of its interests in the region.     

The crisis in U.S.-China policy, 1991: The role of congress

The history of U.S. government decisionmaking on China policy since the June 1989 Tiananmen incident shows several episodes of dramatic confrontation between President Bush and his supporters in the administration and the Congress, and large numbers of congressional members of both parties critical of the administration’s China policy. Up to the present, 1991 clearly marked the highwater mark in the ongoing U.S. policy debate. In general terms, the debate went through three distinct stages in 1991, with the crisis coming during critical votes on conditional MFN legislation in July. At year’s end, all sides in the debate anticipated continued strong congressional criticism of Chinese practices and Bush administration policy, but critics seemed unable to make substantial inroads among those senators who supported the Bush administration’s stance, assuring continued MFN trade treatment for China.     

A legacy reassessed: Helmut Kohl and the German party finance affair

Revelations about former chancellor Helmut Kohl's party finance practices spawned the biggest scandal in post‐war German political history. Though some details of this affair's scope remained unclear or in dispute, the author argues that large, unreported private contributions served Kohl's strategy for managing his Christian Democratic Union: such resources helped fund the modern party organisation that he had built and sustained his own quasi‐feudal network of personal relationships at all levels. His intense partisanship made it easier for him to justify circumventing party finance laws. Yet evidence for the contention that Kohl took such funds in exchange for granting policy favours remains more ambiguous.     

Canada and the Honduran Coup

The purpose of this article is to expose the part played by Canadian imperialism in Honduras before and after the military overthrow of democratically elected Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, on 28 June 2009. It draws attention to the neglected role of the Canadian state's efforts to protect the interests of Canadian capital in Honduras and Latin America more generally through the constant undermining of Zelaya's attempts to return to his legitimate office, and in the ultimate consolidation of the coup under Porfirio ‘Pepe’ Lobo in early 2010. The article simultaneously develops a critique of what has become the standard account of the Honduran coup of 2009. We show how Zelaya was neither a puppet of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, nor an autocrat seeking to entrench his power indefinitely through illegal constitutional reform when he was violently tossed out of government.     

The war in Georgia and the Western response

This article considers Western, and most particularly American, policy towards Tbilisi in the Russo-Georgian war of August 2008. The article does not accept the view of Russian leaders that the United States actively promoted the Georgian attack on South Ossetia. It does, however, argue that Washington's alliance with Georgia was sufficiently close to make President Saakashvili believe he would receive American support in the event of war with Russia. The war, however, was not in America's interest since it threatened its position in the South Caucasus and provided Russia with an opportunity to re-emphasize its growing power in the world.     

PAX SYRIANA: THE STAYING POWER OF BASHAR AL ASSAD

The staying power of Bashar al Assad and the ability of his state to outplay their regional and international enemies have come as a surprise to many. Rather than just the Russians and Iranians being responsible for this there was a coherent strategy to win back not just the territory but also the alliances that it temporarily lost during the course of this war. And unlike Saddam after the first gulf war, Bashar al Assad is already remerging fast as a regional player again. Veteran diplomats such as Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski had cautioned against a fight against Assad, so had seasoned academics such as David Lesch and Patrick Seale. Whilst many experts had predicted the fall of Assad within weeks in 2011 a careful reading of the Lebanese war and Syrian regional policy would act as the best guide to answer how Assad has managed to stay in power despite all the odds. A combination of his father's legacy and regional alliances has helped him a great deal. The ethnic and sectarian fault lines of Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Palestine have all contributed to his success including receiving support from virtually all stake holders of relevant neighbours such as the Shia and Christian of Lebanon, the Palestinian factions, the Alevi and Arabs of Turkey, the Sunni or Iraq. An ability to divide his opponents both on the battlefield and diplomatic table was the main factor that turned the tide in favour of Assad along with the obvious military support from Russia and Iran, but also by key Arab states such as Egypt and Algeria.     

Sex,lies and rigged returns – the Kerry county parliamentary election of 11 June 1634 and its consequences

The 1634 Kerry county election involved the mis-return by the deputy sheriff of the Protestant father-in-law of the sheriff, rather than the Catholic John FitzGerald, a member of the local gentry. FitzGerald successfully appealed the return and was elected MP; however, the injustice of the original return rankled and, combined with a bitter existing family dispute with FitzGerald’s brother-in-law Patrick FitzMaurice, Lord Kerry and Lixnaw, led to accusations of sexual infidelity and a ruinous case in the Irish equivalent of the English Star Chamber. FitzGerald’s subsequent return in a by-election in 1640 formed part of the downfall of the Irish Lord Deputy, Sir Thomas Wentworth, Earl of Strafford. This study of the 1634 Kerry county election also forces a revision of the accepted view of Wentworth’s conduct of all the elections for that Irish parliament, with consequences for an understanding of the early stages of his deputyship.     

On new rules for destroying old countries

The attacks on 11 September 2001 were not a major security threat to the United States, but they did create the political conditions for the implementation of an aggressive agenda by the Bush administration to assert U.S. dominance over the global control of oil and to establish an arc of military bases to contain China. Responding to Gowan, this article suggests that bid is unlikely to succeed because the concentration of military strength in the United States is paralleled by a concentration of financial strength in East and Southeast Asia. Though its Asian allies have been more supportive of the U.S. invasion of Iraq than their European counterparts, growing economic integration along Asia's Pacific coasts is likely to lead to a reduction in capital inflows to the United States and thereby aggravate the consequences of its high current accounts deficits and its low rates of domestic savings. The Bush administration's conservative social policies and anti-foreigner zeitgeist is also sapping the competitive edge of the U.S. economy in new technologies.     

US-Japan Alliance: The Political Dimension

George W. Bush was inaugurated as the new president of the United States on 20 January 2001. How will the change in personnel influence Washington's approach to its relationship with East Asia and, in particular, with Japan? Takashi Oka, a Washington-based consultant to the Liberal Party of Japan who was for many years a correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, considers this question in the following article. Oka argues that the strategic importance of the US-Japan alliance has not lessened with the end of the Cold War,and that in order to confront the security challenges of the twenty-first century, Japan's position within the US-Japan alliance needs to change from that of a protected subordinate to that of an equal partner. For this to be possible, a politician with sufficient vision and power, someone with a clear foreign policy, who is strong enough in domestic politics to carry out that policy, needs to emerge in Japan.     

Two-level games,issue politicization and the disarray of Taiwan’s cross-strait policy after the 2000 presidential election

This study aims to illuminate the interactive relationship between domestic politics and external policy in Taiwan’s mainland China policy after the 2000 presidential election. Following the logic of Putnam's two-level games, this paper demonstrates how the newly elected President Chen Shui-bian adopted an ambiguous and evasive approach as well as frequently shifted positions in his dealings with the mainland China issue due to the constraints of his pro-independence constituents and a vigilant, anti-independence Beijing. Employing Knopf's three-to-three games as well as Puchala’s issue politicization, it further shows how Taiwan's opposition parties—the KMT, the PFP, and the NP—as well as Chen's political rivals, took advantage of Chen’s inability to break the Strait impasse by initiating active engagement with Beijing in order to gain political advantages.