东亚货币合作与中国的角色分析

如何加快东亚货币合作的进程一直是理论界积极研究的课题.亚洲金融危机直接催生了东亚货币合作,建立亚洲货币基金是应对危机的直接反应,"10 3"模式和"清迈协议"是亚洲货币基金思想的具体实践,亚元则是东亚货币合作的最高理想,但目前正在展开的货币合作方案对危机援救的实际效果有限,且受到诸多因素制约.因此,进一步完善清迈货币互换体制、建立区域内汇率稳定机制、发展亚洲债券市场和最终建立东亚共同货币区等分阶段渐进模式是今后东亚货币合作的最好选择.作为地区性大国,中国应该积极参与东亚货币合作进程并发挥主导作用.     

50年代的美国与东亚--评《双重的遏制:艾森豪威尔政府的东亚政策》

整个20世纪后半期的世界历史大致上可以概括为美苏冷战的历史.这场美苏之间的竞争最初集中于欧洲和西亚,但不久以后冷战便呈现出扩、散的趋势,而首先波及的地区就是人口密集、形势复杂的东亚.南京大学中美文化研究中心副教授蔡佳禾的《双重的遏制:艾森豪威尔政府的东亚政策》(南京大学出版社1999年版,以下简称为《双重的遏制》一书;对艾森豪威尔时期美国的东亚政策进行了较为系统的研究.     

The financial crisis in East Asia

The East Asian financial crisis has proved far more contagious than anyone imagined likely when devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997 gave the first indication that something was wrong, and the implications it could have for the entire world financial system mean that any response must involve more than just the nations affected directly. Nobuyuki Ichikawa says Japan, as the locomotive for the Asia‐Pacific region, must move quickly to achieve an early economic recovery by increasing domestic demand and reforming its financial system, in order to increase imports from East Asia and shore up the weak yen. He suggests that one effective measure might be for the yen to become the key currency for Asia in lieu of the dollar. Ichikawa works for the Bank of Japan and was seconded to IIPS in 1995.     

East Asia and the world economy

Abstract

The contrast between Japan's emergence from the late nineteenth century as an industrializing nation and China's continued relative stagnation during the same period constitutes a puzzle that has provoked many attempts at solution. To heighten the sense of paradox, a number of observers have echoed the view of the late Alexander Eckstein that

an informed observer appraising the prospects of economic development and modernization in Asia from the vantage point of 1840 might well have picked China—rather than Japan—as the most likely candidate. China was a vast empire more populous than Japan, much better endowed with mineral resources and large internal markets. Even in terms of social and political institutions, China might have appeared to be in the better position [etc.]     

The recent situation in East Asia and Cambodia

A military coup in July 1997 mounted by Hun Sen against his co‐prime minister, Prince Norodom Ranariddh, derailed plans for Cambodia to join ASEAN, an outcome that was unfortunate not only for Cambodia but for the region as a whole, according to Yukio Imagawa. Ambassador of Japan to Cambodia from 1992 to 1996, Imagawa was closely involved in the Cambodian peace process from the time of the Paris Peace Talks in 1989. In this paper, he examines the factors that caused dissension within the Cambodian government in the years following the success of the 1993 UN‐sponsored election, and throws light on the efforts of the international community to ensure the continuance of peace and of democratic government in Cambodia     

东亚概念辨析

东亚应该是以地理位置为基础,以经济和文化上的相似性为纽带形成的一个区域.具体范围应该包括中国、日本、朝鲜、韩国、香港、澳门、台湾和新加坡.这8个国家和地区在地理位置和经济文化的相似性上不管以任何标准划分都应该是东亚的核心.     

The Bush Administration's 'Alliance-Based' East Asia Policy

The US will face major foreign policy challenges in East Asia in the twenty-first century. In this article, Ralph A. Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, examines the Bush administration's policy towards East Asia which he argues continues to be alliance-based. The principal issues include: the precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula; China's potential emergence as a regional power and the sensitive topic of the Taiwan Strait, Japan's struggle with economic and constitutional reform and an unstable Indonesia. The administration's stated commitment to missile defense has been well publicized and the security implications of this for the region are also examined by Cossa. Although a ''Vision statement'' on the Asia-Pacific is still lacking and needed, he argues that the basic components of the Bush administration's Asia strategy appear to be well-formed.     

The political economy of the dollar and the yen in East Asia

From the early 1980s until 1997 large amounts of Japan's current account dollar surplus were invested in U.S. Treasury securities. This economic relationship developed into an “alliance” sustained by the economic policies of U.S. and Japanese authorities. The U.S.-Japanese alliance indirectly promoted East Asian export-led growth during 1985–95. However, policies associated with the U.S.-Japanese alliance also contributed significantly to the 1997 Asian financial crisis. During the past years Japan has launched a number of initiatives for aid and regional monetary co-operation with the aim of internationalising the yen and redirecting regional current account surplus flows to go within the region, rather than being invested in the United States. The article assesses the viability of this regional challenge to U.S. monetary hegemony.     

美国与东亚能源安全

本文认为,美国是影响东亚能源安全最重要的外部因素之一.在维护海洋运输线路和保障全球能源安全等方面,美国对东亚能源安全的影响大体上是积极的;但美国的单边制裁和能源外交,对东亚能源安全则是不利的.在解决东亚地区内部能源争端方面,美国目前的立场有助于各方保持克制,但是其立场的多变性则可能不利于争端的最终解决.美国对东亚的能源政策以将东亚纳入自己主导的全球能源安全体系为目标,目前的重点是处理中美能源关系.     

中亚石油与中国

展望21世纪,中亚石油潜力巨大,可能成为今后世界石油市场极为重要的新角色。中国自1993年成为石油净进口国以来,对外来石油的依赖度日趋增大。中亚石油将成为中国除中东以外的主要外来油源。因此,我们应对中国——中亚石油问题进行思考。     

中产阶级的崛起与东亚政治转型

本文对当代东亚新兴工业化国家的社会阶层变革及民主政治转型的关系进行了论证分析。从权威政治走向民主政治,不仅要靠高度发达的经济实力来支撑,而且需要中产阶级作为其社会基础条件。中产阶级的崛起、公民社会的形成和非政府组织的发展都是东亚民主政治转型的重要推动力。     

东盟在东亚合作进程中的地位与作用

作为冷战后区域一体化现象中的新生事物,备受世人瞩目的东亚合作已经取得了长足进展并呈现着良好的发展势头.本文旨在分析和评估东盟在东亚合作进程中的独特作用.文章首先简单介绍了东亚合作的基本进展与现有机制;接着论述东盟领导下的东南亚地区一体化进程,指出它不但是构成东亚合作的一个重要部分,而且也为东亚合作提供了重要的经验和基础积累.第三部分着重分析冷战后特别是在东南亚金融危机之后东盟转向东亚合作的原因和过程,在指出东盟主动发起和推动东亚合作既是外部压力的结果也有求得自身发展的内在逻辑的同时,突出东盟在东亚合作中的核心作用.     

中日两国在东亚区域内贸易中地位的变化及其影响

东亚区域内贸易比重的迅速上升是现阶段东亚贸易发展的一个重要特征。中国和日本作为东亚区域内两个最大的经济体,两国在东亚区域内贸易中的地位和影响力的变动对相互之间的经济合作以及区域内经济合作模式的选择,具有十分重大的影响。本文在分析东亚区域内贸易发展现状的基础上,从中间产品和最终产品的贸易结构与贸易竞争压力的角度,分析了中日两国在东亚区域内贸易中地位的变动及其影响。     

"东亚合作论坛2007:变化中的东亚与美国"研讨会综述

随着全球化进程的深入发展,东亚地区局势正在发生变化。作为东亚区域外的美国,对东亚的战略也在不同程度地发生变化,与东亚的关系也将在一定程度发生微妙的变化。由中国人民大学国际关系学院东亚研究中心主办的第三届东亚合作论坛围绕“变化中的东亚和美国”这一主题于2007年11月10至11日在中国人民大学举行。来自中国、美国、日本、韩国、新加坡和蒙古等国近90余名专家学者与会,会议就“中国的和平发展与中美关系”、“日本的亚洲外交与日美关系”、“朝鲜半岛形势新变化与韩(朝)美关系”和“东亚区域一体化与美国”四大议题进行了深入探讨…     

Regional Governance in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific

This article examines the emergence of and relationships between Track 1 and Track 2 arrangements in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific. It argues that the emerging complex webs of institutional arrangements in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific exhibit a multi-layered structure of governance in which public and private actors are increasingly connected, but hierarchically organized. It also suggests that the coexistence of multiple governance mechanisms with overlapping but different memberships at both Track 1 and Track 2 levels signals difficulty in their attempts to enhance the overall efficacy of the governance mechanism.     

论东亚地区的政治、安全结构

本文试图对冷战后东亚地区的政治、安全结构作一个更具包容性的解释,并将这一地区政治、安全领域尤其是安全领域出现的各种现象抽象地概括为三种基本模式,即多极模式、霸权稳定模式和多边安全合作模式.本文认为,以上三种要素构成了世纪之交东亚地区政治、安全环境的单元性基本结构要素,并在此基础上形成了一个对该地区的政治、安全形势进行宏观性解释和分析的框架.