The commodities supercycle's end and political risk

The commodities supercycle has ended, and commodity prices have dropped steeply. This has strained the economies of net commodity exporters, most of which are emerging-market and developing countries. Substantial reductions in export revenues have prompted budget cuts and other drastic remedial action that have in many cases reduced government assistance to general populations and produced shortages of basic goods and services. As a result, popular discontent and instability have broadly increased political risk.     

The political affiliation effect on state credit risk

Past research largely has ignored the effects of political parties on states’ default risks. This paper addresses that question by analyzing the response of credit spreads to weekly polling data from 17 gubernatorial elections between 2009 and 2012, during the 6 months prior to Election Day. The findings are that political affiliation has a significant effect on states’ default risks. The estimated effect of electing a Republican governor is a 6% reduction in the credit spread of the state. The effect prevails regardless of the party in control of the state legislature, and it is larger when gubernatorial elections are contested closely. Set in the context of case law, the paper links higher tax levels to greater credit risk. Moreover, an analysis of the candidates’ campaign promises suggests that stronger positions against tax increases are associated with less default risks. The results of the paper are therefore consistent with the empirical evidence suggesting that Republicans prefer lower taxes.     

A political genealogy of political economy

If, at the end of the eighteenth century, political economy became the prevailing representation of economic phenomena, this was due to the fact that, better than other economic or political discourses, it constructed a political framework in which three forces could co-exist. These forces were those that all the authors of this century tried to articulate: the state, capitalism, and those who tried to protect themselves from their power.     

政治心理视角下的网络政治参与

网络政治参与在我国已成峰火燎原之势.在网络政治参与众语喧哗的背后,蕴藏着我国公民对廉洁政府、服务型政府和社会公平正义的诸多期待.这种期待是网络政治参与动机的重要构成部分.网络政治参与动机主要有三种:经济利益动机、伦理道德动机、归属和成就动机.在多种动机驱动下的网民,通过网络上的学习、交流和强化,最终形成网络"群体极化"现象."群体极化"现象的形成,客观上要求政府对网络政治参与心理进行调适和疏导.     

Negativity in political perception

The tendency for negative information to have more weight than equally extreme or equally likely positive information appears in a variety of cognitive processing tasks, but has rarely been documented empirically in politics. This paper provides evidence for two types of negativity effects in electoral behavior: negativity in the formation of impressions (of Humphrey and Nixon in 1968, of McGovern and Nixon in 1972, and of Carter and Reagan in 1980), and negativity as a consequence of impressions (in the 1974 and 1978 congressional elections). Both post hoc rationalization and the nonequivalence of the positive and negative information were examined and ruled out as artifactual explanations for these results. Discussion centered around two possible explanations for negativity, a cost-orientation hypothesis (which holds that people are more strongly motivated to avoid costs than to approach gains) and a figure-ground hypothesis (which holds that negative information stands out against a general positive background).     

政治主体

即政治行为者。广义指所有的政治行为者。其相对的政治客体是政治行为赖以发生的政治环境。狭义指在政治过程中处于支配和主导地位的政治行为者．其相对的政治客体是其行为所涉及的被动的政治行为者。有些政治学家从法律的角度出发。把政治主体看作是政治权利和政治义务的承担者．认为只有那些被国家的法律赋予一定的政治权利和政治义务,并且实际地参与国家政治活动的人,才是政治主体。     

政治行为

指人们关于政治生活的各种活动,主要指可见的政治行为,如竞选、抗议、罢工、战争等。自从政治科学发生行为主义革命后,政治行为一度成为政治分析的出发点和核心内容。     

政治认同

人们在社会政治生活中产生的一种感情和意识上的归属感。它与人们的心理活动有密切的关系。人们在一定社会中生活．总要在一定的社会联系中确定自己的身份,如把自己看作是某一政党的党员、某一阶级的成员、某一政治过程的参与者或某一政治信念的追求者等等．并自觉地以组织及过程的要求来规范自己的政治行为。这种现象就是政治认同。     

政治参与

公民自愿地通过各种合法方式参与政治生活的行为。它反映公民在政治系统中政治活动的地位、作用和选择范围。     

政治制度

在特定社会中,统治阶级通过组织政权以实现其政治统治的原则和方式的总和。它包括一个国家的阶级本质,国家政权的组织形式和管理形式,国家结构形式和公民在国家生活中的地位。狭义主要指政体,即政权的组织形式。     

政治领导

政府、政党、政治集团等政治主体运用政治权力或权威．通过对政治客体的作用和影响．实现一定的政治原则和方向。政治领导主要体现在确立政治原则和政治方向。制定重大决策．安排重要人事等方面。它更注重对所辖范围政治生活的宏观控制。政治领导依赖政治权力和政治权威．最终形成一种支配与服从的关系。     

Age difference in political decision making: Strategies for evaluating political candidates

To investigate age-related differences in strategies used to evaluate political candidates, an experimental study employed protocol tracing techniques with a computerized information matrix. Forty younger and forty older adults gathered information about and evaluated candidates in national and local elections. Older adults accessed less information but took longer to examine information and make choices. Differences in strategic processing suggest that young adults were more likely to organize their information searches by issues and to eliminate candidates based on issue stances. In contrast, older adults were more likely to organize their information searches by candidates and to engage in satisficing.     

Experiments in filtering political opinions

Changes in the wording of core measures of political attitudes in the American National Election Studies have generated a good deal of controversy about artifactual sources of change in the U.S. electorate. This research, based on several field experiments and replications, investigates the effects of using or not using various types of opinion filter questions that have appeared in the SRC/CPS series over the years. The analysis shows that the use of a filter interacts significantly with a respondent's level of education and interest in politics, particularly the latter, in determining whether a respondent will offer an opinion on a given public policy issue. But the study also demonstrates that such an interaction occurs primarily when the question about interest in politics is askedafter, rather thanbefore, a set of political issue items. In interpreting these order-and-context effects the authors develop a self-perception model of how respondents infer their interest in politics from information that isavailable in memory about their own behavior in the survey interview.     

Incumbency effects in political campaigns

In this paper we examine two effects of incumbency. First, an incumbent may have an advantage in creating a favorable image in the eyes of the voters. Second, the incumbent may have to chose a position before the challenger; this second aspect of incumbency is modelled as Stackelberg leadership. In the model two candidates run for election by choosing a position in an ideological spectrum. Voters care about candidates' chosen positions as well as non-policy attributes of candidates, which we call charisma. Charismata are not known when candidates choose policy positions; they are only revealed on election day so that winning is not usually a certain prospect. Candidates care about the probability of winning but they also dislike compromising their own ideals.We find that the incumbent's equilibrium position is closer to his/her own ideal point than the equilibrium position of the game when moves are simultaneous. Also, for sufficiently large charismatic differences a natural leadership regime prevails: the candidate with the large charismatic advantage prefers being a leader to being a follower and the opponent prefers being a follower. If the difference in charismata is small both players prefer to be followers     

A contribution to the conceptualization of political resources utilized in corporate political action

• This paper is an attempt at improving existing conceptualizations of corporate political resources. I contend that existing typologies are too vague, simplistic and incomplete on several points. This is why I firstly suggest a new typology and then offer some thoughts on the main characteristics of these resources. Lastly, I apply the idea of resource combination (or bundle) to political resources, showing that they can play three different roles in implementing two generic political strategies.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explaining political sophistication

Debates over the political sophistication of mass publics smolder on. The more fundamental question, however, is why people become as politically sophisticated or unsophisticated as they do. This paper develops a nonlinear simultaneous equation model to weigh explanations of three general sorts: the politicalinformation to which people are exposed, theirability to assimilate and organize such information, and theirmotivation to do so. The estimates suggest that interest and intelligence, representing motivation and ability, have major effects, but that education and media exposure, the big informational variables, do not. I consider the reasons and sketch some implications for the sophistication of mass publics, for the study of sophistication and other variables of extent, and for democratic theory.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 9–11, 1987. The data were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Douglas Arnold, John Bolland, Thad Brown, Carol Cassel, Philip Converse, George Kateb, Jan Kmenta, Kathleen Knight, James Kuklinski, Kenneth Langton, Melvin Manis, Diana Owen, Thomas Rochon, Marianne Stewart, Paul Sniderman, James Stimson, and Herbert Weisberg have provided feedback and encouragement. James Gibson relayed his results on the intelligence measures, even as they came off the printer. Mary Lee Luskin helped in many ways. If errors remain, they are mine.     

Left-right political scales

Abstract Although left-right scales are an inherent feature of much cross-national research, they have necessarily been created on a somewhat ad hoc basis, since the empirical foundation for valid cross-national scales rarely exists. This paper seeks to provide such a foundation by using judgements of party ideological position which are both explicit and non-idiosyncratic across a wide range of countries. These judgements derive from a so-called 'expert' survey of leading political scientists in Western Europe, the USA, and elsewhere. It is our hope that the scales which we derive in this way may prove useful in a wide variety of contexts of comparative research.