Why strategic intelligence analysis has limited influence on American foreign policy

Why does strategic intelligence analysis have limited influence on American foreign policy? Intelligence analysis is frequently disregarded, this paper contends, because it is a duplicated step in the decision-making process and supplements but does not supplant policy assessment. Many intelligence analyses will confirm policy assessments and be redundant or – if the assessments are different – policy-makers will choose their own interpretations over those of intelligence analysts. The findings of this paper provide scholars with important insights into the limits of intelligence analysis in the foreign policy process as well as recommendations for increasing its positive impact on policy.     

Why representatives are ideologists though voters are not

Though few voters appear to hold consistent ideological views, the roll call votes of congressmen and senators can be well predicted by ideological terms. An explanation for this puzzle is that ideology allows candidates to succinctly explain their views. Because it is difficult to explain detailed positions to voters, a candidate who presents his position in ideological terms may be able to defeat a candidate who supports a set of issue positions that would, in toto, be preferred by a majority of well-informed voters were the voters aware of all the views of that candidate. This effect can be a powerful one. Moreover, ideology may be a source of electoral stability, and a means of providing regularity and structure to elite political debate.Amihai Glazer acknowledges support from the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. Bernard Grofman received partial support from Grant SES #85-06376, Decision and Management Science Program, National Science Foundation, and NSF Grant BNS #80-01194 to the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University, at which he was a 1985–86 Fellow. We are indebted to Gordon Tullock for his comments.     

On a code of ethics for policy experts

Advances in science and technology have exposed society to risks of unprecedented magnitude, which sometimes must be faced on very short notice, as in the field of nuclear power. Those developments have greatly increased the significance of the opinions of policy experts. When adversaries are pitted against one another on such issues, the risk that policy experts may lose legitimacy in the eyes of the public is very high. At such times, the concern grows that the experts' views may be influenced by pressure from their principals or by conflicts of personal interest. One step that could reduce the risk of a loss of legitimacy for policy experts is to develop a code of ethics, which would include such issues as defining the responsibility of the expert, identifying unacceptable conflicts of interest, determining the expert's obligations regarding secrecy and disclosure, and developing standards for the process of decision-making in emergencies.     

公共伦理学的构建何以可能

本文提出公共伦理学何以建立的依据在于 ,国家与社会的分离过程 ,培育着社会公共组织 ,对公共组织行为中的伦理价值属性 ,必须进行道德思考 ;管理伦理学、行政伦理学的诞生为公共伦理学的研究提供了相应的思维视野。探讨公共管理主体与客体之间的道德关系 ,是公共伦理学的主要任务。     

Why are Inheritance Taxes Unpopular?

There is a puzzle over why inheritance taxes are unpopular relative to other taxes since they are progressive and, assuming they are spent wisely on welfare goods, more people should gain than lose through inheritance tax. I examine four reasons why inheritance tax might be unpopular (a) propaganda, (b) fiscal illusion, (c) framing and developing the latter (d) an evolutionary basis in human reasoning. The latter suggests that the relative popularity of a tax is related to how far the money taxed is already 'in the possession' of the person taxed. Given these reasons I make a suggestion and examine some proposal for making inheritance tax less unpopular.     

Why does centralisation fail to internalise policy externalities?

We provide an explanation why centralisation of political decision making results in overspending in some policy domains, whereas too low spending persists in others. We study a model in which delegates from jurisdictions bargain over local public goods provision. If all of the costs of public goods are shared through a common budget, policy makers delegate bargaining to ‘public good lovers’, resulting in overprovision of public goods. If a sufficiently large part of the costs can not be shared, underprovision persists because policy makers delegate bargaining to ‘conservatives’. We derive financing rules that eliminate the incentives for strategic delegation.     

Why most private hospitals are nonprofit.

In recent decades, restrictions that have been imposed on hospitals organized for profit have served to restructure the industry, generating a constant trend toward nonprofit organizations. Small proprietary hospitals in particular have disappeared while corporate chains have come to dominate what is left of the for-profit hospital sector. The trend toward nonprofit hospitals is not explained by the failure of the health service markets and is not the result of a desire to serve the public interest more effectively. Although a number of arguments have been advanced to explain the shift, the hypothesis that seems most consistent with the existing evidence is that the nonprofit form of organization serves most effectively to strengthen the restrictive character of the market for physicians' services and thereby to serve the individual economic interests of the physicians.     

Policy monitoring and policy analysis

In this article we introduce a policy analytic technique that we call “policy monitoring.” Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency's Hazardous Waste Division, we demonstrate how the technique can be employed in actual practice. The case study demonstrates that EPA enforcements were responsive to stimuli emanating from outside the agency. In particular, relevant congressional committees were able to influence and effect change in the EPA's policy. In addition to demonstrating how policy monitoring can be employed, we also discuss how it can be used in other policy analytic situations.     

SME law and policy analysis

Since the reform and opening-up, especially in the new century, China＇s SMEs are rapidly springing up; they have become an important force of pushing China＇s national economic and social development. The rapid development of SMEs is playing an increasingly important role in stimulating the economy, increasing the state tax revenue, promoting the employment, pushing technological innovation and improving the people＇s lives. It is full of meaning for Chinese Government to provide a sound law and policy environment for SMEs, including mediating and regulating the behavior of domestic SMEs, promoting and protecting the prosperity of SMEs, if we want to pursue the economic prosperity. This article will analyze the status of the development of China＇s SMEs, and research on the related policies and laws.     

Comparative policy analysis

Conclusion As editors, we would be remiss to submit that insufficient comparative policy analysis has been done without making explicit suggestions for further research. One critical problem is that the lack of comparable data remains a major hindrance to comparative work. This, in turn leads into the need for a larger inventory of careful cross-national case studies and primary data sources. Although significant advances have been made in data collection and analysis in recent years, these have occurred primarily in areas where quantification is relatively easy, such as economic and demographic statistics. Two related specific avenues for further research are suggested by reflections on the current limits of comparative analysis. First, more conceptual work based in solid methodology is needed if policy studies are to deal with complexities involved in comparative efforts. As part of this, theoretical constructs must be matched with carefully derived data and evidence, both quantitative and qualitative. As Lasswell has noted, the vitality of the comparative method will depend on whether the expansion of the stock of facts accepted as relevant is accompanied by methodological changes that render facts indispensable to the understanding and management of the policy process. Second, more work should be done to explain and expand upon cultural variables. As this task is addressed in more detail, we should be better able to appreciate the effects of cultural factors on the policy process.In conclusion, it seems especially appropriate to reassert the value of comparative analysis now, when the policy sciences appear to be at a critical juncture. From both domestic and international perspectives, the growing appreciation of crossnational policy research and policy impacts underlines the need for comparative analysis. It is clear that the interest in and importance of policy studies have grown in recent years, but the borders of the constituency remain vague. Efforts to delineate and refine the outlines of the field will almost surely increase. We think that this essay and the ones that follow argue strongly for the inclusion of the comparative dimension.We would like to express our appreciation to The Ford Foundation for its initial encouragement and later financial assistance towards producing this special issue, and particularly to the Foundation's Public Policy Committee and its Chairman, Harold Howe II. We would also like to thank The Rand Corporation for administering that grant. All the papers included here were written specially for this issue.

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Technology assessment and policy analysis

Technology assessment involves questions that are in principle beyond the capacity of science to answer. Because available data and models are ambiguous, ability to evaluate the strength and fit of evidence and the adequacy of arguments assumes paramount importance. In this sense, analysis becomes a sort of generalized jurisprudence. Moreover, the impact of a technology depends on the institutional framework within which it is used. Hence, the analyst must also pay attention to institutional constraints and to peoples' attempts to manipulate them.     

Postmodern policy analysis: Discourse and identity in welfare policy

Postmodern inquiry into the discursive construction of identity has the potential to make a distinctive, democratizing contribution to public policy analysis. More so than conventional approaches, a postmodern policy analysis offers the opportunity to interrogate assumptions about identity embedded in the analysis and making of public policy, thereby enabling us to rethink and resist questionable distinctions that privilege some identities at the expense of others. Public policy analysis can benefit from postmodernism's emphasis on how discourse constructs identity. A review of postmodernism and postmodern approaches to interrogating identity is followed by an exercise in postmodern policy analysis. Social welfare policy in contemporary postindustrial America is shown to participate in the construction and maintenance of identity in ways that affect not just the allocation of public benefits, but also economic opportunities outside of the state. Mired in old, invidious distinctions (e.g., independent/dependent, contract/charity, family/promiscuity), welfare policy discourse today helps to recreate the problems of yesterday, particularly as a critical factor in reproducing women's poverty.     

Why are highly informed citizens sceptical of referenda?

Past work on attitudes toward the use of referenda finds that the most politically informed citizens are more sceptical of its use than their less informed counterparts. An intriguing tension presents itself in that those citizens who may be best equipped for referendum voting, the highly informed and politically sophisticated, are the least likely to support the use of this tool of direct democracy. Using data from Canadian Election Studies, we consider three explanations for relative referenda scepticism among political sophisticates. Our analyses provide evidence to support a confidence in government explanation and a concern for minority rights explanation, but not an incompetent public explanation – a curious finding considering the centrality of citizen competence in the theoretical literature on referenda.     

Events data and policy analysis:

In the 1960s and 1970s the creation and analysis of coded international events data became a major tool for the analysis of international relations and crises. Unlike other quantitative projects developed by the academic community, the events data approach was transformed to applied research and used by various national security bureaucracies in the U.S. government. The approach was eventually rejected due to an aversion by bureaucrats to quantitative analysis systems and procedures which did not incorporate their expertise, organizational objectives and need for user-friendly and timely presentation. The lessons learned from this case can be used to inform current efforts by academics to transfer basic research to the foreign policy making community.     

Opaque rather than transparent: Why the public cannot monitor monetary policy

Federal Reserve officials and many observers of monetary policy claim that the implementation of monetary policy has become more “transparent” over the last decade. This paper argues that monetary policy is anything but transparent because multiple and conflicting goals for monetary policy still exist, precise targets for these goals never are defined, the Fed’s economic model is unknown to the public and, by confusing its apparent intermediate target variable with its true policy instrument, actions taken to be stimulative can be contractionary and vice versa.     

Policy roles: an analysis of policy formulators and policy implementors

This paper presents an empirical analysis of individuals in policy formulating and policy implementing roles. Data for the comparison are from interviews with a random sample of 119 New Zealand middle-level public administrators from 27 government departments.The individuals in the policy formulating roles were slightly younger; however, those in the formulating and implementing roles varied little from each other in terms of social background, educational attainment and career patterns. Few differences were evident in regard to job satisfaction, decisional authority, and hierarchical relations. Significant differences between policy formulators and policy implementors were discovered in terms of work load, career aspirations, and awareness of political influences in governmental policymaking.From the evidence of this study, the New Zealand administrative system does not allocate policy formulating roles to individuals different from those who implement policies. Differences between formulators and implementors in the New Zealand system appear to stem from the nature of the work of the two policy roles.