Congressional Elections in Presidential Years: Presidential Coattails and Strategic Voting

This article analyzes voting for Congress in presidential election years. The national Democratic vote for the House increases with the Democratic vote for president but decreases with the Democrats' perceived chances of winning the presidency (anticipatory balancing). The evidence for coattails and for balancing become visible only when statistically controlling for the other. The aggregate evidence for coattails and balancing in presidential years is reinforced by the analysis of National Election Studies (NES) survey respondents. That analysis shows that politically informed voters are more likely to vote for Congress against the party that they believe will win the presidency.     

Strategic Retirements: The Influence of Public Preferences On Voluntary Departures from Congress

Are members of Congress responsive to public preferences in their decisions to seek reelection or retire, or do members simply rely on the advantages of incumbency to secure reelection? I argue that members of Congress consider their electoral vulnerability when deciding whether or not to seek reelection, informing their reelection odds with the same short‐term electoral forces that influence election outcomes: partisan preferences, economic evaluations, and congressional approval. Considering aggregate rates of voluntary departures from the House and Senate from 1954 to 2004, I show that rates of retirement reflect, not only institutional environments within Congress, but also the mood of the electorate.     

The Impact of Presidential Campaigning for Congress on Presidential Support in the U.S. House of Representatives

Presidential influence is partly a function of the partisan, economic, and international context within which the president governs. Presidents are, however, more than bystanders relying on the political milieu for policy opportunities. Recent scholarship demonstrates that presidents consciously influence this milieu and build political capital by campaigning for congressional candidates. We contribute to this literature by assessing the effects of presidential campaigning on legislative support for two presidents who governed under extremely dissimilar circumstances: Bill Clinton in the 106th Congress and George W. Bush in the 108th Congress. We find evidence of campaign effects on congressional policymaking during both administrations.     

Position Taking and Cosponsorship in the U.S. House

Bill cosponsorship has become an important part of the legislative and electoral process in the modern House of Representatives. Using interviews with congressional members and staff, I explain the role of cosponsorship as a signal to agenda setters and a form of position taking for constituents. Regression analysis confirms that cosponsoring varies with a member's electoral circumstances, institutional position, and state size, but generally members have adapted slowly to the introduction of cosponsorship to the rules and practice of the House.     

Balancing Competing Demands: Position Taking and Election Proximity in the European Parliament

Parties value unity, yet members of parliament have incentives to deviate from the party line. This article examines how members of the European Parliament (EP) respond to competing demands from national parties and European party groups. We examine ideological shifts within a single parliamentary term to assess how election proximity affects party group cohesion. Our formal model of legislative behavior suggests that when EP elections are proximate, national party delegations shift toward national party positions, thus weakening EP party group cohesion. Our Bayesian item‐response analysis of roll calls in the 5th EP supports our theoretical predictions.     

对人大行使许可采取强制措施、审判权的构建思考

依据法律规定 ,司法机关对人大代表采取强制措施、进行审判必须提请人大主席团或常委会许可。但是 ,由于法律对于人大行使许可权时审查的内容、审查的程序 ,对许可决定不服的救济途径等等并没有作出详细的规定 ,因而在实践出现了不少问题。人大的许可权是一种有限审查权 ,因此 ,应当明确人大许可审查内容以程序性审查为主 ,以实体性审查、事务性审查为辅 ;完善人大许可采取强制措施、审判的具体操作程序及审查的期限 ;建立对人大许可决定不服的救济途径等。以此来构建我国人大行使许可采取强制措施、审判的制度。     

略论中共十六大的历史地位

从历史的比较、国外媒体的反响、中央领导集体新老交替、大会的过程和通过的政治报告等角度分析,十六大是一次成功的、顺利的并有新的理论建树的党代会。其理论贡献堪与党的七大、十五大相比。十六大将以其成功和真正继往开来的特点,在党的发展历程中占据重要的历史地位。     

Legislating Crime Policy from the White House: Presidential Success with Congress in the Passage of Federal Crime Control Policy

Previous research has found that presidents, in general, have the power to influence congress in the passage of federal crime control policy. What has not been fully explored is whether presidential supported bills are more likely to influence congress to pass federal crime control bills. Therefore, this study draws upon the theory that presidents influence congress to test the hypothesis that president supported legislation on crime will achieve greater success in congress than non-supported bills. Analysis of legislative, presidential and congressional data from 1946 through 1996 suggests support for the theory that presidential supported bills are 2.8 times more likely (or 185% more likely) to become law.     

The Influence of Lying Body Position on Handwriting

Although the problem of handwriting variability due to lying body position has practical significance, particularly for last will cases, it has not been sufficiently studied. The presented experiment aimed to recognize how such posture may influence handwriting features. Samples of text and signatures were collected from 50 healthy individuals, aged 23–58, produced in three postures: typical sitting position (SP) and two different lying positions (LP1 & LP2). Using the SP sample of each individual as a specimen, eleven characteristics in LP1 and LP2 samples were evaluated as similar or different. Nine other features were measured with a specialized software, and their conformity was tested with Student's t‐test. Although none of the characteristics differed significantly in most cases, variation occurred in pen pressure, margins, baselines, and heights of letters. Additionally, a series of blind tests revealed that lying position of the individuals did not hinder the possibility to identify their writings.     

The Strategic Timing behind Position-taking in the US Congress: A Study of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act

Roll call voting by members of the US Congress has been frequently studied. In contrast, the various decisions leading up to roll call voting are relatively unexplored. This article analyses one of those decisions: when senators announce their final passage vote intention. The authors use the same set of variables to analyse both the timing of the announcement and the final passage vote. They find that different independent variables predict these two different decisions, though the constituency and the senator's institutional setting matter in both. Furthermore, this study corroborates an assumption in the rational choice literature that those members with the most information are the first movers.     

扒窃的实质解释——以结果无价值为基本立场

刑法上的扒窃需要充分考虑刑法目的和罪刑法定原则进行实质解释.扒窃入罪的根据应站在结果无价值立场进行分析,这一根据正是甄别、筛选和归纳扒窃概念诸要素的实质理由.扒窃行为只有达到足以造成数额较大损失的程度才能认定为犯罪.依此,扒窃是指行为人在公共领域对一般人所携带财物实施的技术性盗窃行为.同时,刑法上扒窃不以财物“随身”携带和“秘密性”为必要条件.     

Political Ambition in 14 Presidential Democracies

This article captures the nature of legislators' ambitions and explores to what extent their career paths within a context of party competition lead to progressive versus static ambition. The findings show that their previous career path and retrospective loyalty towards the party influences which offices they seek. Progressively ambitious legislators also seek offices in less competitive environments, but this finding holds for the regional executive branch or the presidency. An additional robust finding shows that ideologically conservative legislators tend to be statically ambitious. This is a first step towards mapping out ambitions in Latin America by drawing on cross‐national data.     

领导者的内隐成就动机、冒险倾向与企业国际化的关系

企业战略型领导者的内隐个性心理特征与企业国际化具有内在的关联性。以上层梯队理论为基础,采用半结构化方式访谈了50家民营企业的最高决策人,以内容分析的方法对访谈内容进行编码,分析计算出内隐个性心理特征值,得出验证理论模型。结果表明,在控制了其他因素之后,战略型领导者的内隐成就动机、内隐冒险倾向对企业国际化意愿有正向积极的影响。     

Presidential Support in the Russian State Duma

Recent comparative research on presidential systems has analyzed the ways in which presidents build majorities for their legislative agendas. Through an analysis of roll‐call votes from the 2000‐03 Russian State Duma on a set of issues reflecting President Putin's legislative agenda, I examine the impact of parliamentary party affiliation, policy preferences, issue type, and electoral mandate type on structuring floor support for the president. I also assess the implications of a mixed electoral system for building legislative coalitions in multiparty legislatures. Further, my findings shed light on Putin's recent reforms of the Duma's rules and procedures and the country's electoral system.     

论中国对专属经济区内他国军事活动的法律立场——以“无暇号”事件为视角

沿海国在专属经济区内是否享有对外国军事活动的管辖权一直以来都存在争议,美国的无暇号海洋测量船闯入中国专属经济区这一事件更引起了中美两国的外交争端。沿海国在专属经济区内享有安全利益,未经沿海国的许可,他国不得借军事测量为名在沿海国的专属经济区内从事危害其国家安全的活动。这种军事测量活动不仅与《联合国海洋法公约》中和平利用海洋的宗旨相悖,而且也不在海洋自由之列,中国可以对此进行必要的拦截。     

Evangelizing Congress: The Emergence of Evangelical Republicans and Party Polarization in Congress

The realignment of evangelical voters is well‐documented, but religion's impact within Congress is less clear. New data on home churches of members of Congress shows that the realignment of congressional evangelicals, combined with their growth and distinctly conservative legislative behavior, has significantly contributed to party polarization in Congress. Controlling for other factors, evangelicals are significantly more conservative than members of other religious traditions. This conservatism also has second‐order effects on the polarization of the House, where their more partisan proposals comprise a larger share of the roll‐call agenda when Republicans are in the majority. Moreover, evangelical Republicans in Congress differ significantly from evangelical Democrats in terms their geography, denominations, and experiences prior to Congress.     

Presidential Campaigning in the 2002 Congressional Elections

Theories involving coattails, surge and decline, presidential popularity, and the economy ascribe little importance to presidential efforts to influence congressional elections. Since such efforts do occur, we ask: What happens when a president campaigns for fellow partisans? We examined President George W. Bush's decisions to campaign for certain House candidates in 2002, and we assessed the effect of his visits on Republicans' electoral successes. Both the competitiveness of a race and the president's electoral self‐interest increased the likelihood of a visit on behalf of a candidate. Neither party loyalty nor presidential support in Congress had an effect. We conclude that presidential campaign visits significantly enhance candidates' electoral prospects.     

我国企业以自主知识产权为特征的品牌战略探析

在知识经济、网络经济、全球经济发展的新形势下,品牌已成为一个国家经济实力和国际竞争力的标志。新的品牌发展战略要突出以自主知识产权为特征,以“技术→专利→标准→品牌”现代产业发展链为主干的思路。文章从企业品牌及其特征、品牌发展及其社会环境、品牌目标及其战略运用三个方面探讨和论述了企业品牌发展战略。     

Taking Responsibility for an Act Not Committed: The Influence of Age and Suggestibility

Inherent in false confessions is a person taking responsibility for an act he or she did not commit. The risk of taking such responsibility may be elevated in juveniles. To study possible factors that influence individuals' likelihood for taking responsibility for something they did not do, participants in a laboratory experiment were led to believe they crashed a computer when in fact they had not. Participants from 3 age groups were tested: 12- and 13-year-olds, 15- and 16-year-olds, and young adults. Half of the participants in each age group were presented with false evidence indicating liability. Additionally, suggestibility was investigated as a potential individual-difference factor affecting vulnerability to admissions of guilt. Results showed that younger and more suggestible participants were more likely than older and less suggestible participants to falsely take responsibility. Implications of these findings for juvenile justice are discussed.