Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

To protect and collect: a nationwide study of profit-motivated police crime

This study is part of a larger research project on police crime in the United States. Police crimes are those criminal offenses committed by sworn law enforcement officers who have the general powers of arrest. Profit-motivated police crime involves officers who use their authority of position to engage in crime for personal gain. This study reports the findings on 1,591 cases where a law enforcement officer was arrested for one or more profit-motivated crimes during the seven-year period 2005–2011. The profit-motivated arrest cases involved 1,396 individual officers employed by 782 state, local, special, constable, and tribal law enforcement agencies located in 531 counties and independent cities in 47 states and the District of Columbia. Our data is the first systematic study of profit-motivated police crime. The study describes the nature of this form of police misconduct in terms of several dimensions, including the characteristics of police who perpetrate these crimes, where it occurs, the specific criminal charges, and the contexts within which profit-motivated police crime is punished through police agencies and the criminal courts.     

Understanding motives for aggression in forensic psychiatric patients: a preliminary study

The primary aim of this study was to explore motivations underpinning aggression among men detained within conditions of high security. Thirty men residing at a high secure psychiatric hospital completed self-report measures, including the Aggression Motivation Questionnaire, Revised EXPAGG and Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-IIr. The Historical items of the Historical, Clinical and Risk-Management (HCR-20) and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version were rated. A subsample of participants agreed to complete a functional assessment on an aggressive incident that had occurred during their placement (n = 9). Increased psychopathy and impulsivity, and the presence of historical risk items were predicted to associate with higher levels of both aggression motivation and beliefs supportive of aggression. Young age at first violent incident and personality disorder related positively to aggression motivation. Thematic analysis conducted on the functional assessments identified social recognition, emotion regulation, communication and protection as functions underpinning aggression. Results are discussed with regards to their implication for violence treatment and assessment, with a focus on motivation recommended.     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

Trends in police research: a cross-sectional analysis of the 2010-2014 literature

ABSTRACT

This review provides a cross-sectional analysis of the police literature for years 2000 to 2014. It represents the ninth special feature review of police research published in Police Practice and Research: An International Journal. The study reports on trends over time in police literature according to substantive categories, publication medium, and methodological typology. The study also relies on findings from prior police research reviews as a basis for a discussion of the long-term patterns of police research over time from 2000 to 2014. A topically organized bibliography of the 2010 to 2014 police literature reviewed is also provided.     

Designing a graduate entry route for police recruits: lessons from a rapid evidence assessment of other professions

ABSTRACT

Policing in the UK is currently undergoing changes to the training and attained qualifications of entry level police officers. The College of Policing is in the process of developing three entry routes into the profession, one of which is a graduate conversion course for those new recruits who hold, at a minimum, a Bachelor’s degree. The objective of this research was to gather evidence on existing conversion courses to inform the development of this route. A rapid evidence assessment was undertaken to a narrative synthesis of the literature on graduate conversion courses in other professions. Fifty-one studies were identified and coded. Four main themes emerged from the available evidence as being central. These themes – learning styles, translating theory into practice, teaching methods and assessment were cross cut by pedagogical sub-themes of collaborative learning, and reflective practice. Policy and practice implications for a policing conversion course are drawn out to guide development and delivery of police training and education in the 21^st century.     

Violent women: a multicentre study into gender differences in forensic psychiatric patients

To gain insight into the relatively small, but increasing group of women in forensic psychiatry, a retrospective multicentre study was started gathering information from the files of 275 female patients of four Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals on characteristics and violence risk factors. Overall, a picture emerged of severely traumatized women with complex psychopathology with multiple previous treatment failures and many incidents during treatment. The present study investigates specific psychiatric and criminal characteristics of female patients by comparing their data to those of 275 male forensic psychiatric patients. Various prominent differences were found, for example, women had more complex histories of victimization, were more often diagnosed with borderline personality disorder, were more likely to commit homicide and arson and less likely to commit sexual offenses, and were more often involved in inpatient aggression than their male counterparts. Several recommendations for gender-responsive treatment and directions for future research are provided.     

Re-Conceptualising the Policing of Hatred: Confessions and Worrying Dilemmas of a Consultant

Community Safety Units in the London Metropolitan Police handle over 9000 reported incidents of ‘hate’ crime each month. This paper explores the work of these Units through its conceptualisation of the notion of vulnerability. The workload of the CSUs includes domestic, racist and homophobic incidents. The victim/perpetrator relationship, it is assumed, provides special motivation for the offender's violence and requires police to consider special support for the victim. The paper begins with an exploration of how the MPS conceptualises ‘hate crime’. Its rationale for dedicated resources for the policing of particular forms of violence can be found, I suggest in the second part of the paper, in the way in which violence itself is conceptualised. I then offer a different term for thinking about hate crime – targeted violence. I go on to argue in depth how the(faulty) logic about violence obscures our ability to take people's ordinary experiences of intimidation, threat and bodily harm seriously in law and in society. The term ‘hate crime’, I conclude, in advertently reinforces this (faulty) logic. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Validity and reliability of the VRAG in a forensic psychiatric medium security population in Flanders

Since the development of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), one of the most widely used actuarial risk assessment instruments, numerous replication studies have shown its usefulness in predicting (violent) recidivism among various offender populations. It is not clear, however, whether these findings can be generalized to forensic psychiatric patients admitted to a medium security forensic psychiatric unit in the Flemish part of Belgium. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to test the predictive validity and reliability of the VRAG in a sample of 191 Flemish medium security patients. The mean follow-up period was 2.4 years. Contrary to the expectations, the VRAG was unable to significantly predict any kind of outcome. Possible explanations are discussed and further research with the VRAG in Flanders, and its recently revised version, is recommended.     

Modelling public confidence of the police: how perceptions of the police differ between neighborhoods in a city

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a survey evaluating the views of 1322 residents of York, UK around their perceptions and attitudes towards crime, their local area, and the police with the aim of understanding the main factors affecting public confidence within the city. The study uses Structural Equation Modelling to develop several models which are evaluated to examine whether differences in public confidence in the police exist across disparate local communities with varying degrees of neighbourhood perceptions. The results indicate that even in a relatively small city such as York, the factors which most affect an individual’s views of the police can vary wildly depending on an individual’s perceptions regarding their local area. The results suggest that policing strategies aimed at improving public confidence must be altered depending on the views residents hold regarding their local communities.     

HCR-20 violence risk assessments as a guide for treating and managing violence risk in a forensic psychiatric setting

Abstract

Over the past decades there has been a vast development in the research into risk factors for violence and the development of risk assessment instruments. One instrument that has been given special attention is the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of this tool, i.e. how does this assessment scheme perform when utilized in clinical practice as a tool to guide intervention and management in order to alleviate risk of violent behaviour? The present study was a true prospective study into the utilization of the HCR-20 as a clinical routine. Data on forensic psychiatric patients (n = 81) from a forensic unit in Denmark are presented. As part of a clinical routine all patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing the structured professional judgement model, the HCR-20. Outcome measures were aggressive episodes during hospitalization and new convictions post discharge. The predictive validity of the HCR-20 was lower compared with previous findings. It is argued that this does not necessarily indicate poor predictive accuracy of the HCR-20. Rather, it may indicate that the HCR-20 is suitable for guiding risk management in order to prevent violent behaviour.     

Shooting Alone: The Pre‐Attack Experiences and Behaviors of U.S. Solo Mass Murderers

This paper outlines the sociodemographic, developmental, antecedent attack, attack preparation, and commission properties of 115 mass murderers between 1990 and 2014. The results indicate that mass murderer attacks are usually the culmination of a complex mix of personal, political, and social drivers that crystalize at the same time to drive the individual down the path of violent action. We specifically focus upon areas related to prior criminal engagement, leakage, and attack location familiarity. Whether the violence comes to fruition is usually a combination of the availability and vulnerability of suitable targets that suit the heady mix of personal and political grievances and the individual's capability to engage in an attack from both a psychological and technical capability standpoint. Many individual cases share a mixture of unfortunate personal life circumstances coupled with an intensification of beliefs/grievances that later developed into the idea to engage in violence.     

Making sense of body-worn cameras in a police organization: a technological frames analysis

ABSTRACT

This case study of a small police agency in the United States uses semi-structured interviews, a patrol officer survey, and observations, to examine the technological frames of managers and users for interpreting the implementation and use of body-worn cameras. A technological frames approach allows for an in-depth comparison of the knowledge, assumptions, and interpretations of a new technology between groups and for an examination of the processes that may lead to these perceptions changing over time. Although users were initially wary of managers’ rationale for camera implementation, their frames evolved as they realized that body-worn cameras were not being used to identify instances of minor misconduct or policy violations. This development of a more positive perspective was further strengthened by the discovery of additional benefits of body-worn camera use, including protecting users from frivolous complaints and their evidentiary value. These findings challenge the notion that ‘first impressions last’ and that differences in group frames inevitably lead to conflict and unsatisfactory outcomes.     

Assessing change in dynamic risk factors in forensic psychiatric inpatients: relationship with psychopathy and recidivism

This study explored change in dynamic risk for violence using the Clinical and Risk Management subscales of the Historical Clinical and Risk Management-20 version 3 (HCR-20 v3) and sought to determine whether change was associated with violent recidivism. The association between the magnitude of change and psychopathy was also assessed. Participants were 40 male (n = 32) and female (n = 8) forensic psychiatric inpatients discharged from a secure forensic mental health service. Results showed that participants significantly improved on the HCR-20v3 Clinical subscale but significantly worsened on the Risk Management subscale. Psychopathy was unrelated to change in Clinical and Risk Management subscales. The hypothesis that changes in dynamic risk would predict recidivism over and above total pre-treatment risk (HCR-20v3 Total score) and psychopathy was not supported. These results suggest that improvements in mental state risk factors alone are insufficient with regard to lowering violence risk.     

The ‘us vs them’ mentality: a comparison of police cadets at different stages of their training

ABSTRACT

Any depiction of police culture includes a strong ‘us versus them’ element, but research has been unable to satisfactorily explain its development and evolution. In particular, very few studies have focused on the training period, between when an individual chooses a police career and his/her first day as an officer. A total of 1,979 pre-university students from seven colleges in Quebec (Canada) completed a self-administered survey where they had to answer general questions about the police followed by specific questions about four realistic videos of fictional police interventions involving use of force. Unsurprisingly, the analysis suggests that students in Police Technology tend to think they are more supportive of the police and the use of force than students in other programs. However, students in Police Technology increasingly indicate that the majority of people would report a more negative opinion than they have, suggesting that police candidates increasingly disidentify with the rest of the population.     

Written records of police interrogation: differential registration as determinant of statement credibility and interrogation quality

Abstract

The backbone of Dutch criminal procedure is the case file including a large number of written records. In Dutch courts the focus is primarily on evaluation of written records. The written record of police interrogation is a mediated account of the interrogation itself. In this study we explore how individual differences in the production of written records by police officers affect the jurists' evaluation of the suspect's story and of the quality of the interrogation itself. In the first study, five police officers produced written records of one and the same interrogation on video of a denying suspect. In the second study, three of those written records are evaluated by jurists. They are asked to determine story acceptability of the suspect and procedural fairness of the interrogation. Findings show that a short and simple interrogation of a suspect results in written records that are quite different (Study I). It is further shown that these differences affect the jurists' evaluation of some of the core issues addressed in a criminal process (Study II). Implications of these findings are discussed as well as a number of possible ways to improve the current state of affairs.