Financial management conservatism under constraints: tax and expenditure limits and local deficit financing during the Great Recession

This paper investigates the relationship between tax and expenditure limits (TELs) and local government deficit financing decisions following the recent recession. Cities under the resource constraints are hypothesised to practise conservatism in financial management decisions and thus less likely to deficit finance during difficult times. Using data from 2005 to 2012 Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports of the 50 largest US cities, this paper finds that cities subject to a binding TEL are more likely to control expenditure growth from pre-crisis years to years following the recession; these cities are also less likely to increase deficit financing following the recession, as indicated by a relative increase in their net assets. Although continuous deficit erodes fiscal sustainability and is an undesirable management practice, deficit financing during recessions may be needed for smoothing expenditure and sustaining service provision. The management conservatism associated with the fiscal rules may contribute to the cyclicality of local spending.     

The fiscal impact of privatisation in Latin America

The goal of achieving fiscal balance through privatisation is misplaced because the revenues generated are rarely large or timely enough to bring the budget deficit under control. In Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile fiscal crisis preceded and encouraged the decision to privatise, but only in Argentina did the revenues from privatisation contribute significantly to fiscal adjustment. The article develops a model, incorporating time preferences and longer term fiscal impacts, which shows that major fiscal benefits can be expected only under rare circumstances. Politicians continue to tout the fiscal benefits of privatisation perhaps to gain support or to signal their commitment to economic reform.     

Rentier fiscal crisis and regime stability: Business-state relations in the Gulf

Are sectorally dependent states destined to regime instability as a result of chornic fiscal crisis? Literature emphasizing the importance of a country’s sectoral endowment suggests that oil exporters in particular should exhibit similar policy stagnation and regime decay as a result of fiscal crisis. The cases of Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain in the 1980s and 1990s demonstrate that fiscal crisis outcomes are not uniform. This article develops the critique that structuralist assumptions about what drives business-state relations during crisis are flawed. Abstract logics typing exogenous price sifts to the character of business-state interaction neglect the historical and instituional grounding of those relations. It is variation in the historical and institutional crafting of business-state relations that best explains how these relations shape reform under crisis and how regime stability is affected.     

How does intergovernmental fiscal environment affect general fund balances of major American cities?

This study explores the extent to which intergovernmental fiscal factors affect fiscal reserves in municipal general funds. Statistical results from panel data of 87 major cities in the US for the period from 1995 to 2010 show that cities facing more restrictive limitations on local property taxation tend to maintain higher levels of unreserved general fund balances. Additional analyses also show that fiscally constrained cities accumulate surpluses in their general funds. This is consistent with the proactive approach in which municipal governments make fiscal decisions with the awareness of expected state constraints on their revenue-raising capacity. We call for consideration of relevant intergovernmental constraints in the determination of appropriate level of fund balances for municipal governments.     

The States' Role in U.S. Local Government Fiscal Crises: A Theoretical Model and Results of a National Survey

Abstract

This article hypothesizes four potential roles that states may play in dealing with local government fiscal crises: predict, avert, mitigate and prevent the recurrence of local fiscal crises. Based on a 50‐state telephone survey administered by the author to members of the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers in 2002, this article presents detailed information on states' roles in dealing with actual local government fiscal crises. The research found that ten states had formal definitions of local government fiscal crises while the remainder varied between having a working definition, having no definition, or leaving it to local authorities to define a fiscal crisis for themselves. Although the majority of states lacked a rigourous, legal definition of what constitutes a local government fiscal crisis, 36 states reported that they had had such crisis in recent history in their states. Seven overlapping categories of state approaches emerged: the directive approach, the proactive approach, the ad hoc approach, the special legislation approach, the reform approach, the takeover approach, and the responsive approach. States reported a wide range of activities under each of the hypothesized roles. In general, states tended to get involved after a crisis rather than before one occured.     

Economic resilience after the Great Recession: an examination of unreserved fund balance in Michigan counties

ABSTRACT

This paper examines fiscal slack, in the form of unreserved fund balance, as a tool used by local governments to enhance economic resilience. It adapts ecological, engineering, and organisational definitions of economic resilience and investigate their relevance to local financial management in the United States after the Great Recession in 2008. Using group-based trajectory modelling, we identify different strategies of fund balances used by Michigan counties. The change of fund balance does not delineate any pattern theorised by the resilience concepts. We also find different factors that motivate local officials to manage their fund balances differently. The study suggests a nuanced understanding of fiscal slack used by local governments for economic resilience that goes beyond unreserved fund balance.     

Mutualizing Europe's Debts

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

The European Union: A Shield Against the Downside of Globalization

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

Fixing Europe's Democratic Deficit

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

More Europe,Less Nationalism

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

Austerity is Strangling Europe

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

A Global Rescue for Europe

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

Making Europe Work

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

Swiss Lessons for European Federalism

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

This Time Europe Really is on the Brink

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

‘Obligations of good faith’: on the difficulties of building US-style EU federalism

The sovereign debt crisis has exposed the weaknesses of the regulative and institutional arrangements of the European Monetary Union. A number of American scholars have highlighted that there are lessons on federalism for Europe to learn from the USA. But to what extent can the US model of fiscal federalism be transferred to the European context? Our general assumption is that besides the differences of the historically developed institutions, structures and economic concepts, it is the different logic that has and is driving the two integration processes that would impede such a transfer. Basing the argument on Oates’ theory of two generations of fiscal federalism, we see that the USA – building on a firm constitutional framework – provided for a crucial role of central government in macro-economic stabilization, whereas the European Union (EU) style of fiscal federalism remains contractual. Although transfers are inevitable, the EU shuns the logic of financial solidarity as economic divergencies cannot be harmoniously accommodated by a commitment to a common constitutional framework. As crisis management largely relies on an intergovernmental decision-making process, it enhances the power of creditor states vis-à-vis the debtor states and follows the logic of ‘surveillance and punishment’. The European emphasis is on controlling the moral hazard and the most likely outcome of the crisis will be differentiated integration.     

The Impact of AIDS on the Botswana Civil Service: A Case Study of the Police and Prison Services

That HIV/AIDS has had an enormous impact on southern Africa in general, and in Botswana in particular, is not in doubt. Numerous studies have documented certain aspects of the problem—high HIV prevalence rates, increasing numbers of orphans and vulnerable children, declining average life expectancy, and a high number of deaths among adults during their most productive years. Scholars have engaged in speculation about the possible impacts that this disease might have on social relationships, economic growth and development, and governance in both the near and the long terms. But these studies are only forecasts of possible futures, not data driven analyses. This study closely examines data available from two agencies in the Botswana civil service, the police and prisons services in an effort to assess, albeit indirectly, any impact that the HIV/AIDS crisis may have had on the workforce. Although the AIDS epidemic in the country as a whole was reflected in the experience of these services, neither agency suffered the devastating effects some feared.     

The Politics of Economic Crisis in Latin America

Researchers widely recognize that economic crises have important political consequences, yet there is little systematic research on the political factors that make nations more or less susceptible to economic crisis. Scholars have long debated the economic consequences of party systems, executive powers, and societal interest groups, but their relationships to crisis proclivity are poorly understood. We assess the political correlates of economic crisis using a cross-sectional time-series analysis of 17 Latin American countries over nearly three decades. Crises are measured along two dimensions—depth and duration—and disaggregated into three types: inflationary, GDP, and fiscal crises. Statistical results suggest that political institutions have a modest, and often unexpected, correlation with crises. More important than institutional attributes are social organization and the nature of party-society linkages, particularly the existence of a densely-organized trade union movement and/or a powerful leftist party. Strong unions and powerful parties of the left are associated with more severe economic crises, though there is some evidence that the combination of left-labor strength can alleviate inflationary crises. The results demonstrate the need to disaggregate the concept of economic crisis and incorporate the societal dimension when studying the political economy of crisis and reform.     

Glasgow: Anatomy of a fiscal crisis

Ostensibly, the reorganisation of Scottish local government in 1996 was intended to create a more local, more efficient and more accountable system of local government. However, simultaneously, through grant abatement, the government intensified its fiscal squeeze on local government, seeking in real terms reductions in local authority expenditure. Contrary to assurances from ministers, both developments occasioned disruption for local authorities, with Glasgow in particular experiencing a severe period of fiscal stress. This paper outlines a research framework for identifying potential causal factors behind the acute nature of Glasgow's fiscal crisis, whilst considering the budgetary constraints within which Scottish (and indeed British) local authorities must operate. Finally, it focuses on the impact and resolution of the crisis and highlights the crucial role that the decisions of central government have played in shaping the response of one major local authority.     

The Baltic Republics and the Crisis of 2008–2011

This essay explores how the Baltic republics responded to the crisis of 2008–2011. We argue that while there are significant differences in how the Baltic economies responded to the crisis, these responses not only remain within the neo-liberal policy paradigm characteristic of the region from the early 1990s, but that the crisis radicalised Baltic economies and particularly their fiscal stance. We show that there are a number of unique features in all three Baltic republics' political economies that made such a radicalisation possible. However, these unique features make it almost impossible for the Baltic experience to be replicable anywhere else in Europe.