United States and Evolving Cross-Strait Relations

The article discusses the U. S. role in cross-strait relations before and after the political power transition in Taiwan during 2008. It explores the question of whether a new dynamic is shaping the Beijing-Taipei-Washington trilateral relations with the significant relaxation of cross-strait relations, and how that affects Washington’s ability to influence the direction of cross-strait relations in the future. More specifically the paper analyzes the role the United States played in shaping the new reality in the Taiwan Straits, and the evolving thinking on Taiwan in American strategic and political circles. It will also discuss how Washington has managed the cross-strait relations so far as well as how Beijing and Taipei have handled the American factor on some sensitive issues. Finally it will look at the potential benefits and limitations that the United States could contribute to achieving a higher level of reconciliation and integration between the two sides across the Taiwan Straits.     

Assessing the Impact of Performance-Based Budgeting: A Comparative Analysis across the United States, Taiwan, and China

What is the impact of performance-based budgeting (PBB) on governmental spending? Do various PBB implementation strategies result in different outcomes? The authors, Jack Yun-jie Lee of National Open University in Taiwan and XiaoHu Wang of the University of Central Florida, gathered data from the United States, Taiwan, and China (Guangdong Province) to explore the possible intermediate- and long-term results of PBB. The data demonstrate how the impacts of PBB vary across countries and regions.     

The Final Frontier: China,Taiwan, and the United States in Strategic Competition for Central America

China’s rise as a global power corresponded with a diminution of Taiwanese diplomacy, which has left Central America as the last region to host a continuous bloc of countries that recognize the ROC. In this article, we argue that China’s success in gaining diplomatic recognition from Taiwan’s former allies has largely resulted from China's economic policy, specifically its promises of large-scale infrastructure projects and the integration of Central American economies with Chinese markets. However, there are limits to how far China has advanced in gaining full recognition from the region. The competing political and economic interests of China, Taiwan, the United States, and the Central American countries themselves, continue to influence patterns of diplomatic switching. More specifically, we argue that the threat of punitive measures from the United States combined with a turn in Taiwanese diplomacy toward assistance efforts to combat Covid-19 may deter future switching in the short to medium-term. Our analysis offers case studies of four Central American countries (Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Nicaragua) to illustrate the multi-year processes by which China’s economic strategy leads to diplomatic switching and examine the paths ahead for the remaining holdouts facing the prospect of economic and political penalties by the United States.

     

Taiwan’s submarine-building plan

Taiwan has been attempting to expand its small submarine fleet for 20 years, first by trying to purchase submarines from the United States and Europe, which failed, and now by building the submarines itself. The so-called Indigenous Defense Submarine programme seeks to build eight modern diesel-electric submarines over roughly the next decade. While the programme faces several technological and political challenges, if it succeeds, Taiwan will significantly increase its ability to resist a potential invasion by China.     

Neoconservatism,US–China conflict,and Australia's ‘great and powerful friends’ dilemma

Abstract

Following its time-honoured ‘great and powerful friends’ foreign policy tradition, Australia has been cultivating close ties simultaneously with the United States and China. Yet, as a rivalry between the two powers apparently looms large, Australia faces an acute dilemma. While the rise of China and the question of Taiwan are often cited as main causes of US–China discord, this article argues that the American neoconservative policy on China, underpinned by a belief in both military strength and moral clarity, is integral to this growing competition and is, by extension, partly responsible for the emergence of Australia's predicament. To avoid such a difficult choice, the article suggests that Australia should strive to curb the policy influence of neoconservatism both in the United States and at home by pursuing a more independent foreign policy, making clear its strategic postures on US–China relations, and helping establish a trilateral strategic forum between Australia, the United States, and China.     

Asian crisis,transparency and the international media in Singapore

Abstract

The issue of Taiwan and relations across the Taiwan Strait is not only of fundamental interest to China, but also crucial to peace and stability in the Asian Pacific, thereby also making it of key concern to major players such as the United States and Japan. Beijing has faced enormous challenges over how to solve its dilemma. I would like to achieve reunification with Taiwan through a peaceful path, but perceive that it must be prepared for a war scenario if Taiwan insists on breaking from the mainland for its independence. The dilemma facing Beijing in terms of war or peace with Taiwan has become more acute since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) moved to power in 2000. This article analyses Beijing's dilemma over the above policy choices by examining five stages of Beijing's assessment toward regime change in Taiwan from late 1999 to early 2005. It also illuminates the potential impact on major power relations in East Asia.     

Continuity or Change: US Policy & Taiwan

Although the government and society of the Republic of China’s (ROC or Taiwan) have changed markedly in the new millennium, the fundamentals of US policy toward the island remain intact. This study outlines recent developments in Taiwan and shows how they represent challenges to the US. It also discusses American policy toward Taiwan and examines several proposals for change that an American administration may wish to consider. In conclusion, the paper explains why the current policy, albeit contradictory and ambiguous, is in the best interest of the United States. There is a strong possibility that any major change in policy would succeed only in undermining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Dennis V. Hickey is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Graduate Program in International Affairs at Missouri State University. His most recent book, Foreign Policy Making in Taiwan: From Principle to Pragmatism, was published by Routledge Publishers (London) in 2006.     

Taiwan’s presidential election and sino-U.S. relations

This article analyzes the dyadic relationship between mainland China and Taiwan and between China and the United States by focusing on the internal factors in the three countries. It has been an important assumption in theories of international relations that there is an inextricable linkage between foreign policies and domestic socio-economic and political conditions. Yet, policy makers as well as some policy analysts in Beijing, Taipei and Washington still do not pay enough attention to the internal factors in each of the three countries. Misperceptions continue to be a major source for the conflicts in the bilateral relations between mainland China and Taiwan and between China and the United States. More often than not, the misperceptions are culturally and ideologically based. Until the three sides can minimize their misperceptions of the other parties, the future relationships between Beijing and Taipei and between Beijing and Washington look grim indeed. His research interests include East Asian and Chinese politics, political culture and participation in China, Sino-American and cross-Taiwan Strait relations. His publications have appeared in journals such asAsian Survey, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, East European Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Journal of Contemporary China, Political Research Quarterly, PS: Political Science and Politics, andProblems of Post-Communism.     

Valence politics and electoral choice in a new democracy: The case of Taiwan

After two peaceful alternations of political power in a single decade, Taiwan is a democratic success story, demonstrating levels of party competition, turnout rates and patterns of civic engagement similar to those in mature Western democracies. What factors drive electoral choice in Taiwan's new democracy? This paper addresses this question by testing rival models of voting behavior using the Taiwan Elections and Democratization Study (TEDS) 2008 presidential election survey data and the 2010 mayoral election survey data. Analyses show that, similar to their counterparts in mature democracies, Taiwanese voters place more emphasis on the performance of political parties and their leaders in delivering policies designed to address valence issues concerning broadly shared policy goals than on position issues or more general ideological stances that divide the electorate. Findings demonstrating the strength of the valence politics model of electoral choice in Taiwan closely resemble the results of analyses of competing models of voting behavior in Western countries such as Great Britain and the United States.     

The persuasive role of the past: Policy feedback and citizens' acceptance of information communication technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic in China

How can the enforcement of policies in the past influence a society's future adoption of information communication technologies (ICTs)? In this paper, we tackle this question by exploring how past e-governance policies influence citizens' willingness to use the health QR code, which is a COVID-19 tracing app widely used in China's pandemic control. Past policies regarding smart-city development in China involve two aspects: the construction of electronic infrastructure and the applications of specific technologies. Empirical analysis based on a nationwide dataset in China suggests that past policies exhibit persuasive effects and influence citizens' acceptance of the health QR code. Specifically, e-governance applications in cities significantly enhance citizens' acceptance through the demonstration of their usefulness. However, the construction of e-governance infrastructure per se does not have the same impact on citizens' acceptance. By connecting citizens' acceptance of new technology with past e-governance policies, the study illustrates a nuanced policy feedback mechanism through which past policies can substantially reshape public opinion by policy outcomes.     

Ethnic Peace in the Taiwan Strait

The Taiwan Strait has often been referred to as one of the world’s most dangerous hotspots and many dire predictions have been made about a military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, likely involving the United States. Yet, despite several crises in the Taiwan Strait and numerous war speculations, there has been no major armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei since the 1950s. How do we explain the puzzle that an expected war across the Taiwan Strait did not happen after all? This paper first examines the explanations based on military balance of power. Having found the realist/rationalist explanations less convincing, however, this study explores the explanatory power of the “ethnicity” factor. It suggests that when the Chinese society is no longer divided by ideological differences, the “ethnicity” may provide a more convincing explanation of why a military conflict has not happened in the Taiwan Strait in the past four decades. This paper also considers several counterarguments, including the neo-liberal argument of economic integration as a driving force for peace in the age of globalization. The paper concludes with a discussion of some policy implications resulting from the “ethnic peace” thesis and proposes that when actively promoted by the both sides, the Chinese ethnic identity is likely to be the most important strategic guarantee of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for many years to come.     

East asia and cross-Taiwan strait relations

The evolution of the Taiwan issue has been closely linked to the interaction of China and other countries including Japan, Russia, and especially the United States. It is important to examine the great power interaction in East Asia and its effect on the cross-strait relations. Japanese policy toward the Taiwan issue will be a critical indicator of the nature of Sino-Japanese relations. One issue is Japan’s expanding role in the U.S.-Japanese security relations and the implication of such relations for East Asian security. Russia has consistently supported Beijing’s policy on Taiwan. Since the return of Hong Kong to China on July 1, 1997, the policy of “one country, two systems” has been put into practice. If Hong Kong can continue to enjoy a high degree of autonomy and prosperity, valuable lessons might be gained for resolving issues in cross-Taiwan Strait relations.     

美国对台湾军售分析

进入新世纪,中美关系已发展成为重要的双边关系,但是美国实施的对台军售政策却阻碍着这种关系的健康发展。文章回顾了美国对台军售的历史,按各个时期军售的特点将其分为初始萌芽、稳步推进和大幅膨胀三个阶段,并从战略、经济、意识形态角度分析了美对台军售的动因。以此为基础对今后美国对台军售的趋势性特征进行了判断。     

Leadership,regime security,and China's policy toward Taiwan: prospect theory and Taiwan crises

Abstract

Traditional analyses of Taiwan crises have relied mainly on deterrence theory for their explanatory power. This approach fails to account for China's risk-taking behavior, which can be explained by prospect theory. We suggest that Chinese leaders are more likely to use more risky military coercion against Taiwan's pro-independence movements within a domain of losses, i.e., when their regime faces serious domestic and international challenges to its security. Conversely, Chinese leaders are more likely to employ less risky political pressure to oppose Taiwan's pro-independence forces if their decision making takes place in a domain of gains, i.e., when the security of China's regime is not challenged. We conclude that maintaining a good US–China relationship is the best strategy for the United States to help prevent military crises in the Taiwan Strait.     

The more the merrier? Sino-Japanese security relations in the context of complex interstate rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of Sino-Japanese rivalry in the security sphere concentrating on the Chinese perspective, and placing it within the wider context of complex interstate rivalry between China, Japan and the United States. From a theoretical viewpoint, this research contributes to the literature on interstate rivalry from multiparty perspective, which has been overlooked in existing research. China–Japan–US complex interstate rivalry includes elements of positional, spatial and ideological rivalry simultaneously. When rivalries mix two or more rivalry types, they become more difficult to resolve. The two broad trends of China’s military build-up and deepening US–Japan alliance evolve in tandem intensifying rivalry dynamics and increasing positional elements of rivalry. There are many indications on various levels that for China, controlling Japan’s international ambitions has become less important and more attention is paid to ways in which Japan helps the United States in reaching its objectives in Asia through their alliance agreement. The cases analysed to display complex interstate rivalry include the Taiwan question, territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, and the North Korean nuclear issue.     

The 2020 U.S. presidential election: A litmus test

This paper provides an overview of what lies ahead of the United States in the event that Donald John Trump either lost or won a reelection bid. The uncertainty of the election outcomes is what we refer to as a litmus test. In this paper, we reflect on the ongoing events shaping the United States ahead of the 2020 presidential election and their implications on the United States. We suggest that the election provide a litmus test in shaping the politics of the United States in answering numerous questions raised in the current Trump administration. We deduce that the election could give birth to the new form of Brexit in the form of “U.S. exit” in the event the United States ignores processes that foster institutional legitimacy and civic engagement to build lost “trust” in the Americanized system.     

The UN system's contribution to Asia-Pacific security architecture

Although it has been the major states of China, the former Soviet Union and especially the United States that have made the major contributions to shaping the security architecture of the Asia-Pacific region since 1945, the UN system has played a useful, adjunct role. This is especially the case in the post-Cold War era when its principal bodies, together with its various specialized agencies, have provided vital support in moving warring societies into a period of relative peace and stability. The UN peace-building operations in Cambodia and East Timor were some of the most demanding ever undertaken by this universal institution. But beyond these particular examples, the United Nations has been influential in the region in other, more indirect, ways. It has set standards, its charter has been a powerful source of ideas when it comes to composing parallel documents at the state or regional levels, and it has helped with the negotiation of global arms control treaties, making up to some degree for the absence of such arrangements at the regional level. The UN has also had a legitimating function, providing an arena where Asia-Pacific states can publicize their grievances, and receive approval or reprimand for their behaviour. It has played a valuable role, too, as third-party mediator. However, the UN's political structure constrains the contribution it can make to the security order since it is reliant on major state agreement before it can act. Veto power - not its actual use but simply its anticipated use - gives China, Russia and the United States a controlling function with respect to a potential UN role in the management of conflict. Beijing and Washington would work, and have worked, to exclude the United Nations from major involvement in conflicts in which they have direct security interests: the Taiwan and Korean issues being the two most obvious in this regard. Thus, the United Nations is a useful buttress but not a central pillar of the region's security architecture.     

United States' Narco-Terrorism Policy: A Contingency Approach to the Convergence of the Wars on Drugs and Against Terrorism

In recent years, terrorist organizations have become increasingly dependent on drug trafficking as one of several primary sources of revenue to fund terrorist activities. In response, the United States’ security and intelligence efforts against narco‐terrorism have increasingly merged into one unified policy approach. Moreover, the convergence of United States policy wars against terrorism and illicit drugs have produced complex and dynamic contingency factors. As a result, a relatively coherent nexus now exists between the United States’ antinarcotics and antiterrorist policies. The objective of this article is to explain and assess the contingency factors and implications resulting from this convergence and to provide policy scholars with an analytical perspective into the implications of the United States’ narco‐terrorism policy. It is believed that this article is significant to both policy practitioners and policy scholars concerned with the domestic impact of the United States’ narco‐terrorism policy.     

Health care expenditures: international comparisons, 1970-80

This article is based on the findings of a study developed to compare health care costs in the United States during 1970-80 with those of six other industrially advanced countries--Canada, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Although health care expenditures in the United States have traditionally been relatively high, as a share of gross national product, they were exceeded in 1980 in West Germany and Sweden and equaled by the Netherlands. All the countries experienced increases in health care spending that outpaced inflation in other sectors of the economy. For the decade as a whole, the United States encountered a slower rate of growth than most of the other countries, both in terms of actual expenditures and when adjusted for inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. As the decade progressed, however, most of the other countries succeeded in slowing their rate of increase to a greater degree than did the United States. The data also suggest that wage inflation was less of a factor in raising the cost of health care in the United States than was the case in most of the other countries.