Geospatial intelligence and the U.S. Exploring Expedition (1838–1842): reframing the history of U.S. Naval Intelligence

This paper reframes the U.S. Exploring Expedition (USEE, 1838–1842) as a naval/geospatial intelligence collection activity. By charting the Pacific, the USEE furthered U.S. commercial interests, while also building a picture of the ‘maritime operational environment’ on which all other forms of intelligence were (and are) based. Viewing the USEE in this light broadens the opportunities open to historians of U.S. Naval Intelligence and historicizes contemporary concerns about climate change and resource scarcity. It suggests that ‘knowledge of the environment’ has long coexisted with ‘knowledge of the enemy’ as a priority for the U.S. Navy.     

Magnitude and durability of electoral change: Identifying critical elections in the U.S. Congress 1854–2010

The two hallmarks of a critical election and, hence, of a critical realignment are the magnitude of the observed change and the durability of that change. In addition to offering a new approach to measuring durable change in national party dominance, and providing a non-parametric criterion to identify unusual changes in seat/vote shares, we provide fresh insights via a unifying statistical approach that reflects both of these factors simultaneously. Furthermore, we assess the robustness of critical election determinations in two ways. First, we compare the magnitude of inter-election shifts with both average volatility over the entire time period and volatility relative to a particular time period. Second, as an alternative to the usual perspective, we consider critical elections not as a one-time cataclysm, but rather as a pair (or perhaps even triple) of consecutive substantial shifts, generated by the same underlying factors. Overall, we distinguish six elections that marginally or provisionally meet our criteria to be critical elections. But focusing on pairs of elections, 1858–60 and 1930–32 stand out as critical among all elections since the 1850s.     

When does the multiple principals hypothesis hold? The politics of U.S. agency policymaking autonomy

When the bureaucracy's political principals hold different preferences for policy, does this increase the bureaucracy's policymaking autonomy? Existing theory strongly suggests “yes.” We, however, argue that this pattern will materialize only when the bureaucracy's principals are all on the same side of the political divide. (i.e., unified government). Using data gathered from the American states at two time points, we capture preference divergence by measuring the ideological distance between the bureaucracy's key political principals—legislators, governors, and courts—on the common left–right dimension. We measure policymaking autonomy through multi-faceted surveys of state agency leaders. In keeping with our argument, we demonstrate that greater preference divergence across the bureaucracy's principals is associated with increased agency policymaking autonomy under unified—but not under divided—government. The results shed new light on when, and why, the bureaucracy's political principals may provide an oversight check on the policymaking power of the modern administrative state.     

Coalition formation on the U.S. Supreme Court: 1969–2009

We apply a fallback model of coalition formation to decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court, focusing on the seven natural courts, which had the same members for at least two terms, between 1969 and 2009. The predictions of majority coalitions on each of the courts are generally borne out by the 5–4 decisions, whereas the predictions of the Martin-Quinn (Political Analysis 10(2):134–153, 2002) model, which assumes a single underlying dimension along which the justices can be ordered, are not. The present model also provides insight into the dynamic process by which subcoalitions build up into majority coalitions and, in addition, identifies “kingmakers” and “leaders” on the natural courts. Furthermore, it provides evidence, from coalitional memberships, that a few justices shifted over time from one ideological camp to another.     

J.C. Masterman and the Security Service, 1940–72

The significance of J.C. Masterman's relationship with the Security Service, MI5, has not been fully appreciated. As a junior officer during World War II, he consistently sought to achieve good working relations with the Secret Intelligence Service. After the war he continued to take an interest in the Security Service and worked closely with other MI5 elder statesmen to ensure that the successor to Percy Sillitoe as Director-General came from within the Service. Masterman always hoped that his account of the double agents run by British Intelligence during World War II would one day be published. As the public image of the British secret services deteriorated during the 1960s, Masterman believed that MI5 did not grasp how his book could promote its interests, and so he insisted on forcing through publication anyway. The correspondence from serving and former MI5 officers in Masterman's papers vividly illustrate changing attitudes to official secrecy and the declining ability of the British Government to enforce it.     

Judging the “Vapid and Hollow Charade”: Citizen Evaluations and the Candor of U.S. Supreme Court Nominees

Supreme Court confirmation hearings have been famously called a “vapid and hollow charade” by Elena Kagan. Indeed, perceptions of nominees’ refusal to answer questions about pending cases, prominent political issues, or give any hint of their ideological leanings have become a cornerstone of the modern confirmation process. We investigate the extent to which this reticence to speak of their ideological views, or candor, influences how individuals evaluate the nominee. To this end, we present the results of a survey experiment which examines how support for a hypothetical Supreme Court nominee is affected by information, especially when a nominee is presented to be very forthright or very reticent in answering ideological questions during the confirmation hearings. We find that while partisan compatibility with the president is the main determinant of support for a nominee, nominees who refuse to answer ideological questions can bolster support from respondents who would not support them on partisan grounds. We supplement these findings with observational state-level support data from real nominees over the last 40 years.     

Shirley Chisholm： Unbought and unbossed An African American woman in U.S. politics

The article explores how an African American woman, Shirley Chisholm, was involved in American politics in the 20th century. Chisholm＇s political career took off in 1964, when she won the campaign for the New York State General Assembly. In 1968, after finishing her term in the legislature, Ms. Chisholm campaigned to represent New York＇s twelfth congressional district. She won the election and became the first colored woman elected to congress. During her first term in congress, Chisholm hired an all-female staff and spoke out for civil rights, women＇s rights, the poor and against the Vietnam War. In 1970, she was elected to continue a second term. She remarked that women in the United States must become revolutionaries and they must refuse to accept the old, the traditional roles and stereotypes. On January 25, 1972, Shirley Chisholm announced her candidacy for president. Ms. Chisholm became the first African American woman to campaign for the presidency. Not surprisingly, she met a lot of resistance, even from the congressional black caucus and women＇s right groups. The Democratic National Convention in 1972 in Miami was the first major convention in which a woman was considered for the presidential nomination. Although she did not win the nomination, she received 151 of the delegates＇ votes. The whole aim of her campaign was not to win but enter the struggle and pave the way for the future. Ms. Chisholm believed her black colleagues in congress failed to rally around her because she was a woman. Shirley is one of the many African American women who have been denied their rightful place in American history, She fought for change and the article tries to remember the role she played in the United States politics in the 20th century.     

Explaining variation in the competitiveness of U.S. Senate elections, 1922–2004

We develop and test predictions about the factors determining the competitiveness of elections to the U.S. Senate. To do so, we deliberately abstract away from candidate-specific conditions that have often been used to study political competitiveness in order to focus on basic structural features of the electoral landscape. In our framework, party-specific constraints on the ideological positioning of local candidates, linked to the national party organization and its contributors, interact with the heterogeneity of state electorates to determine the number of highly competitive Senate contests. Three hypotheses emerge from this model: (1) the greater the diversity of a party’s national legislative delegation, the more highly competitive Senate elections we will observe; (2) states in which the ideological heterogeneity of the electorate is relatively high will exhibit a greater number of highly competitive elections; and (3) highly competitive Senate contests will be more common in states with closed primaries than in states with open primaries. We provide strong evidence in support of the first two hypotheses and some evidence in support of the third.     

The politics of scarcity: Social welfare and health care cutbacks in Finland, 1991–1995

This article analyses cutbacks in Finnish social and health care programmes. Eight hypotheses were formulated and then tested with empirical cutback data from 1991–95. The analysis showed that strictly administrative programmes and those focused on marginal groups were more likely to be cut more than other programs. These results partially endorse to the ‘vote‐maximising politician’ and the ‘blame‐avoidance’ hypotheses. Political decision‐makers try to distribute the cuts so that harm to the vast majority of voters is minimised. In addition to this, it seems to be easier for politicians to pass the blame for unpleasant cuts to others. The empirical analysis did not corroborate the ‘bureaucratic politics’ theory according to which bureaucrats are in such an important position in the budgetary process that they can protect themselves from cuts. The analysis showed that the administration was hit by cuts significantly harder than other programmes, nor was the impact of powerful interest groups significant in the analysis.     

European–Mediterranean Security and the Arab Spring: Changes and Challenges

The policy of the European Union (EU) toward the Mediterranean has undergone two main metamorphoses during the last 25 years. In 1995, it started from a collective security idea with the Barcelona Process, but due to the poor success of this collective approach, it underwent a “realist turn” with the creation of the European Neighbourhood Policy in 2004. The Arab Spring in 2011, by questioning authoritarianism, influenced the perception of what is recognized as a security problem and who can define it. The authoritarian rulers and their supporting security forces are now challenged by their populations, and societal circumstances are so unstable that nearly every domestic problem can be politically given a spin to become a security risk. Aside from this, violent conflicts and civil wars demand an answer from the EU. In this situation, the EU's answer to the Arab Spring does not directly respond to the changing security situation in the Mediterranean. It emphasizes domestic democracy and civil society but does not take up the potential risk discourses. Concerning violent conflicts, the EU as a community is not at all active in the region but leaves this field to its member states, NATO, the Arab League, and the United Nations. Thus, the perceptions, ideas, and needs of Mediterranean security between the EU and the Southern partner states still differ harshly and seem to disregard the risk dimension of the Mediterranean security problems in this period of Arab transition.     

On the political economy and limits of crisis insurance: the case of the 2008–11 bailouts

The bailouts of 2008–10 are the most recent in a long series of insurance-like policies designed to limit the losses of those harmed by a crisis of some kind—but enacted after a crisis is under way. This paper analyzes the economics and politics of “crisis insurance” programs. The analysis helps explain why ex-post insurance is popular, why it tends to be undersupplied by private markets, and why governments may be better able to provide it. The analysis also points out that there are limits to what losses can be covered. The routine adoption of new programs to limit losses from crises tends to require greater expenditures through time because of moral hazard problems and the nature of crises. Eventually, this trend may produce “uninsurable” crises. The analysis of this paper suggests that such problems can be moderated, although not eliminated, through appropriate standing polices for ex-post funding of crisis insurance.     

Is the WTO Dispute Settlement System a Disaster for the U.S.? An Evaluation of U.S. – China WTO Disputes

Since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the WTO dispute settlement system (DSS) has resolved an impressive number of US–China trade disputes. Over the past few years, however, as tensions between the two have escalated over several trade issues, the WTO has been pushed toward irrelevance since the Trump administration. Alleging that the WTO is “a disaster” and its adjudication is very unfair to the US, former President Trump made no effort to hide his criticism of the WTO and its DSS in particular. Is Trump right about the WTO DSS? Based on an examination of US–China WTO disputes and the WTO adjudicators’ highly contentious interpretations of the concept of “public body” under the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (the SCM Agreement) as an example, this article shows that the WTO DSS is not particularly unfair to the US. While the WTO adjudicators sometimes did not fully follow the positions advocated by the US, they have adhered to generally accepted rules of treaty interpretation and exercised great caution to remain balanced and flexible in reaching their conclusions, especially on ambiguous issues. Though not perfect, the WTO DSS works as it is intended to. Engaging in the reform of the WTO and its DSS, instead of abandoning or marginalizing the WTO, should be a wiser and more practical choice for the Biden administration.

     

The Influence of Religious–Political Sophistication on U.S. Public Opinion

Scholarly accounts of elite–mass communication often suggest that political sophistication is a necessary condition for adopting the attitudes of partisan elites. Some have also suggested that political knowledge promotes religious–political issue constraint among religious identifiers. This paper contributes to the political sophistication literature by piloting and testing a new measure, religious–political sophistication (RPS), assessing knowledge of church teaching on particular political issues. Using original measures launched on the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, I show that for evangelical Protestants and Roman Catholics, RPS (in conjunction with frequent church attendance) depresses support for abortion rights and same-sex marriage. Moreover, I argue that assessing RPS this way is not fatally contaminated by unsophisticated respondents interpolating that their clergy must share their political positions. Results suggest religion-and-politics scholars should adopt RPS measures to gain a greater understanding of the unique sources of political communication upon which religious identifiers draw.     

The U.S. Election Assistance Commission: What Role in the Administration of Elections?

What role in the administration of elections will the new U.S.Election Assistance Commission (EAC) play, and how does thatrole differ from past federal involvement? The answers are uncertainbecause delays in appointing the commission members and insufficientfunding severely handicapped early activities. This articleexamines the factors that influence the EAC's emerging role:the commission's background, structure, tasks and tools, start-upactivities, and recent issues. Because the principal impactof the EAC is indirect, affecting election administration throughthe states, we draw on the "tools of government" literatureto frame the discussion. Although the Help America Vote Actof 2002, which created the EAC, continues a long line of federalregulatory mandates in the elections arena, the EAC has almostno regulatory authority. Its principal tools are grants andinformation—instruments of cooperative, rather than coercive,federalism. Given that the major grant programs are ending,the EAC's long-term contribution will likely be to create anddisseminate information.     

How Does Regulation Affect the Risk Taking of Banks? A U.S. and Canadian Perspective

This historical study utilizes annual insured bank data from 1936 through 1989 to empirically evaluate the impact of bank regulation on bank risk taking in a cross-country comparison of the United States and Canada. Risk is hypothesized to be determined, in part, by the regulatory environment in which a bank operates. The findings of this analysis contributes to the contemporary deregulation policy debate, since both branch banking restrictions and deposit insurance variables are found to be detrimental to bank stability. More specifically, these results support the 1994 Riegle–Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act, which removed legislative barriers to interstate branching. These results also confirm expectations that deposit insurance increases risk taking and supports the 1991 mandate by regulators that risk-based deposit insurance be created. Further, these findings support the 1988 Basel Accord to standardize bank capital requirements internationally and to link these standards to bank risk taking.     

Autonomy and Authenticity. On the Aporetic Nature of Time and History: Castoriadis—Heidegger

Abstract

This paper explores the aporetic nature of social and historical being as it emerges from a juxtaposition of the philosophies of Castoriadis and Heidegger with specific emphasis on their meditations on history, individuality and collective being. It is argued that any current attempts to grasp the problems posed by historical time should not overlook the conceptual space opened up by contrasting Castoriadis' theorisation of social-historical praxis as the enactment of autonomy expressed through the emergence of the ‘radically new’ with Heidegger's treatment of authentic historicity as fate and repetition. The attempt of both thinkers to break with the philosophical tradition of the West is examined from the perspective of their conceptions on time and history, while their opposing accounts serve to revaluate the traditional dichotomy between allegedly linear' and ‘cyclical’ conceptions of time. Additionally, it is argued that instead of treating Phenomenological-Hermeneutic and Marxist accounts as adverse and incompatible, our reflections on history and society are enriched by their juxtaposition. Castoriadis and Heidegger present us with the most promising individual cases of thinkers representing these philosophical schools mainly due to their emphasis on the historical dimension of human life and to their overall groundbreaking philosophical elaborations that resist labelling and defy confinement to specific philosophical or epistemic traditions.     

Does Coproduction of Public Services Support Government's Social Equity Goals? The Case of U.S. State Parks

The growing phenomenon of government-supporting charities prompts the question of whether these institutions help or hinder public values of equity in service access. Logit and tobit regression analysis using multiple data sources from the California and Florida state parks systems compares public parks with and without supporting “friends” groups. The results suggest that while parks philanthropy has produced real benefits in rallying citizen support for improved public spaces, it also introduces some distributional consequences that policy makers should not ignore. Namely, a philanthropic failure hypothesis is supported whereby wealthier Florida counties with greater income inequality are more likely to benefit from a charity supporting a nearby state park. Finding no similar result in California, the authors conclude that the association between community wealth and park charity presence may also depend on state characteristics such as the funding structure of each state park system, not just community wealth differences.     

The language of politics and the politics of language: Unpacking ‘social exclusion’ in new labour policy

Since the election to power of New Labour in 1997, the concept of social exclusion has played a defining role in framing welfare policy. The rapid absorption of its terminology in government discourse has signalled a shift away from existing notions of inequality and disadvantage to a broader understanding of material poverty, which also includes (or instead prioritises) other social, cultural and political factors. This has important implications for New Labour policy-making. In particular, it allows for problems of inequality and disadvantage to be reinterpreted and new political measures to be introduced. Such measures produce different effects across space and society, which may be argued to disadvantage policy subjects. The aims of this paper are to explore how social exclusion has become installed as the primary framework of welfare policy in the UK and to examine the key assumptions embedded within specific policy formulations using discourse and content analysis. It thus points towards the importance of language in stipulating relatively enduring and stable sets of socio-political connections, and its role in mediating a particular (political) vision of the relationship(s) between state, economy and society as implicit in New Labour's ‘Third Way’.