Portable Voter Registration

I find that statewide registration portability—permitting registrants who move anywhere within a state to transfer their registration and vote on Election Day at their new polling place—increases turnout rates among movers by 2.4% points. The effect is similar among movers living in EDR states, suggesting that about a quarter of the beneficial turnout effect of EDR is realized by recent movers. Yet, movers are still less likely to vote even where these policies are present. These findings further challenge existing literature that finds that reregistering is the primary impediment of voting among movers.

Political Culture, Registration Laws, and Voter Turnout Among the American States

Political scientists have long been concerned about the effectsof voter-registration rules on election-day turnout, but havedevoted little effort to explaining interstate differences invoting procedures. What leads one state to adopt permissiveregistration laws and another to enact restrictive laws? Inaddition, what is the precise relationship between registrationlaws and measures of popular participation? This article takesa first step toward answering these questions, utilizing DanielJ. Elazar's concept of political culture and causal-modelingtechniques. The results indicate that political culture offersa significant, theory-driven explanation for differences invoter-registration laws and voter turnout among the Americanstates.     

The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on Turnout

David M. Konisky Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room E53-386, Cambridge, MA 02139 e-mail: sda{at}mit.edu e-mail: konisky{at}mit.edu (corresponding author) Studies of voter turnout across states find that those withmore facilitative registration laws have higher turnout rates.Eliminating registration barriers altogether is estimated toraise voter participation rates by up to 10%. This article presentspanel estimates of the effects of introducing registration thatexploits changes in registration laws and turnout within states.New York and Ohio imposed registration requirements on all oftheir counties in 1965 and 1977, respectively. We find thatthe introduction of registration to counties that did not previouslyrequire registration decreased participation over the long termby three to five percentage points. Though significant, thisis lower than estimates of the effects of registration fromcross-sectional studies and suggests that expectations aboutthe effects of registration reforms on turnout may be overstated.     

Ambitious Women: Gender and Voter Perceptions of Candidate Ambition

Political Behavior - Are ambitious women punished in politics? Building on literature from negotiation, we argue that women candidates who are perceived to be ambitious are more likely to face...     

Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993

Over-time and multivariate cross-sectional analyses of large survey samples are used to estimate the likely effects of the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) by examining turnout in those states where procedures comparable to any of the act's provisions were in force in 1992. In contrast to previous studies, we find that most state motor voter programs did not resemble the NVRA provision. We analyze one state program that did, and in addition use election-day registration as a surrogate, because it also provides one-trip voting. Our two approaches lead to estimates of turnout increases due to the motor voter provision of 4.7 and 8.7 percentage points, respectively. The lack of state counterparts to public agency registration prevents estimates of this provision's consequences. Eliminating purging for not voting will increase turnout by as much as 2 percentage points. Universal mail registration will have no effect. The turnout effects will be greatest among the two largest groups of current nonvoters: people under the age of 30 and those who moved within two years of election day. Neither group is politically distinctive, except for young people's weaker identification with the major parties and greater affinity for third-party candidates.     

Deterring Voter Registration Through Juror Selection Practices: Evidence from Survey Data

Presenting evidence from additional data sources, this study confirms the finding that the use of voter registration lists for jury selection purposes significantly reduces registration rates. Further, evidence is provided for the first time that a large percentage of Americans are aware that voter registration lists are the primary source lists for selection of jurors. That so many people know a fact as seemingly arcane as this, while so few know basic facts about the workings of government, provides striking support for the Downsian approach to political participation. Knowledge of juror source practices is shown to be strongly associated with the incentive and opportunity to acquire such information.     

Differential Registration Bias in Voter File Data: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach

The widespread availability of voter files has improved the study of participation in American politics, but the lack of comprehensive data on nonregistrants creates difficult inferential issues. Most notably, observational studies that examine turnout rates among registrants often implicitly condition on registration, a posttreatment variable that can induce bias if the treatment of interest also affects the likelihood of registration. We introduce a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential bias induced by this problem, which we call differential registration bias. Our approach is most helpful for studies that estimate turnout among registrants using posttreatment registration data, but it is also valuable for studies that estimate turnout among the voting‐eligible population using secondary sources. We illustrate our approach with two studies of voting eligibility effects on subsequent turnout among young voters. In both cases, eligibility appears to decrease turnout, but these effects are found to be highly sensitive to differential registration bias.     

A two-step approach to assessing composition effects of the National Voter Registration Act

Using aggregate level data from 1996 and 1998 this paper employs a two-step strategy to explore the impact of implementing the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) on the education, income, age, and racial/ethnic composition of state electorates. The results of the project suggest that implementation of the reform had a moderate effect on reducing the tendency of state registered electorates to be skewed toward higher education, income, and age groups. The implementation of NVRA procedures was also associated with reductions in the tendency of the voting electorate to be skewed toward higher socioeconomic groups and older Americans. The impact was indirect, however, in that changes in the voting electorate were a result of changes in the registered population, which were, in part, due to the implementation of the reform.     

Radio Public Service Announcements and Voter Participation Among Native Americans: Evidence from Two Field Experiments

Although similar to other U.S. minorities in terms of socio-economic status and political interest, Native Americans are more dispersed geographically and much less likely to vote. This pattern suggests that at least part of the disparity in turnout might be due to Native Americans’ lower exposure to statewide and national mobilization campaigns. To test this idea, a randomized experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a radio campaign that encouraged Native Americans to vote. In 2008 and 2010, experiments were conducted across a total of 85 radio markets spanning more than a dozen states. Results suggest that this nonpartisan radio campaign increased turnout among registered Native American voters in both elections, although the estimated effects fall short of conventional levels of statistical significance.     

Spatially Dispersed Ties Among Interdependent Citizens: Connecting Individuals and Aggregates

A continuing tradition in contextual analysis locates individualcitizens within spatially defined, aggregate settings in aneffort to provide a more complete account of individual behavior.Given the increasing individual mobility within society, itis less than clear that geography continues to define the boundarieson meaningful aggregate contexts—people have become lesstied to their geographic contexts, and technology makes it possiblefor citizens to maintain relationships independently of space,distance, and location. In this paper we pursue an analysisand set of analytic techniques that are designed to connectindividual voters, their communication networks, and the geographythat surrounds them. The analytic techniques utilize a uniquedata set that captures spatial dispersion in an individual'ssocial and political network, and from these analyses we candraw two conclusions. First, spatial dispersion in a networkdoes have an effect on interaction within the network; the worldis not full of voters who operate independently of their geographiccontexts. Second, spatial dispersion provides opportunitiesto connect citizens living in different geographic contexts,thereby creating bridges for communication across differentcontexts. These findings suggest that scholars might profitablyincorporate geography as an important component of the complexrelationships among and between individual citizens in explainingthe role of the individual in modern democratic politics.     

Influenza and Voter Turnout

Disease makes performing civic obligations more difficult both for the afflicted and those around them. Elections held when infectious diseases are locally prevalent are therefore likely to see lower voter turnout than are those held in healthier times. This is especially notable given the strongly seasonal incidence of influenza, which coincides with election season in some countries. This article examines the relationship between regional turnout rates in Finland and the United States from 1995 to 2015 with measures of local influenza prevalence. In both countries, regression models suggest influenza outbreaks associate with lower voting rates. This may suggest another mechanism limiting the political representation of people and communities vulnerable to ill health.     

Encouraging Local Compliance with Federal Civil Rights Laws: Field Experiments with the National Voter Registration Act

Can state officials increase local officials’ compliance with an important federal civil rights law with subtle interventions? The National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (NVRA) requires voter registration services at certain government agencies, but many counties fail to comply with the act. Working with officials in two states, the authors conducted field experiments to determine whether two methods commonly used by state officials increase compliance with the NVRA. Findings show that although the effects of the methods on output were sizable relative to recent performance, agency performance remained poor overall, with many offices continuing their history of registering no voters. The authors also discovered that gains in performance were largest for the offices that had performed best in the past. These findings suggest that while subtle interventions by state officials can produce increased compliance, stronger tactics may be needed to secure implementation of this federal law by local government agents.     

Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision

This article explores the relationship between vote sincerity and the time at which vote decisions are finalized. It posits that a specific set of competitive circumstances are necessary for insincere voting to occur, and that voters' understanding of these circumstances can be influenced by exposure to information during a campaign. The article introduces a new method of operationalizing a commonly overlooked type of insincere voting: the protest voter. As defined here, protest voters express their political dissatisfaction by supporting an uncompetitive non-traditional party that is not their first preference. Canadian Election Study data reveal that protest voters make up a small, but noteworthy segment of the electorate and that insincere voters tend to make their vote decisions relatively late.     

Civic Duty and Voter Turnout

We argue that two different sets of considerations shape the decision to vote or abstain in an election–ethical and non-ethical. First the citizen may vote out of a sense of duty. Failing that, she may vote because she has strong preferences about the outcome of the election. Abstention occurs when neither duty nor a sufficiently strong preference is present. The implication is that while duty and preference each have strong positive effects on turnout, they also have a negative interaction effect, since the impact of preference is much weaker among those with a sense of duty. We present a wide array of empirical evidence that systematically supports our claim that the turnout decision is importantly shaped by this causal heterogeneity. Thus a turnout model misses something fundamental if it does not take into account the effect of civic duty.

     

Political Competition and Voter Mobility

The existing model of political competition is extended to allow voters to live in different regions and to migrate between regions in response to an inter-regional transfer policy. We then show that regions have a different ``weight'' in the expected vote function of political parties. This gives parties an incentive to bias the transfer policy in favour of relatively high weight regions, with potentially adverse efficiency and equity effects. However, we then show that parties always propose efficient and equitable regional transfers, regardless of whether regions have different weights, if there is some mobility of citizens across regions. Mobility constrains parties to act efficiently and equitably even though they face an incentive to act otherwise. However, when voters are immobile political competition leads to inequitable though efficient outcomes.     

Assessing the Impact of Alternative Voting Technologies on Multi-Party Elections: Design Features,Heuristic Processing and Voter Choice

This paper analyzes the influence of alternative voting technologies on electoral outcomes in multi-party systems. Using data from a field experiment conducted during the 2005 legislative election in Argentina, we examine the role of information effects associated with alternative voting devices on the support for the competing parties. We find that differences in the type of information displayed and how it was presented across devices favored some parties to the detriment of others. The impact of voting technologies was found to be larger than in two-party systems, and could lead to changes in election results. We conclude that authorities in countries moving to adopt new voting systems should carefully take the potential partisan advantages induced by different technologies into account when evaluating their implementation.     

Voter participation and the redistributive state

The redistributive theory of the state implies that voter participation rates should be highest among those who have the most to gain or lose or a V-shaped relationship between income and voting participation should exist. We use a data set that contains nearly 21,000 observations on individual survey responses about voting behavior in the U.S. between 1972 and 1993 to show that the participation rate generally rises monotonically with income, perhaps except at very high income levels. It does report other findings consistent with an economic theory of voting based on returns to association and with the hypothesis that public employees vote more.