Rallying in fear? Estimating the effect of the UK COVID-19 lockdown with a natural experiment

We use a natural experiment to study how the announcement of the UK COVID-19 lockdown affected citizens' attitudes towards the pandemic and the government's response to it. On the day of the lockdown announcement, YouGov ran a survey that captured responses before and after the announcement. Comparison of these responses suggests that the lockdown announcement made people more supportive of the government's response to the crisis but also (perhaps surprisingly) more concerned about the pandemic. Analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects suggests that the announcement narrowed gaps in perceptions of the crisis, increasing support for the government's response especially among those who had been least supportive and increasing concern about the pandemic especially among those who had been least concerned. Overall, the findings highlight a tension inherent in governing during times of crisis: actions that increase people's confidence in government and induce compliance with government directives may also tend to increase anxiety among the population.     

Unequal Voices: ‘Strategic’ Consultation in South Australia

In 2006, the South Australian government undertook the largest consultation ever to take place in the state. Over 1600 South Australians were involved with the consultation on the revision of South Australia's Strategic Plan (SASP). This ‘big‐picture’ consultation was a significant attempt to connect with, and gain feedback from, the South Australian ‘community’ on the Rann government's vision for the state. This article is the first formal evaluation of the 2006 consultation on the SASP. To critically evaluate the consultation process, this article uses Pratchett's framework which examines participative processes through the two principles of responsiveness and representativeness. The article concludes that the state government's rhetoric about the success of the consultation obscures a number of deficiencies and tensions that underpinned the consultation process. This critique of the South Australian consultation provides some key insights for the current trend for strategic planning at the state level in Australia.     

A Guide to Benchmarking COVID-19 Performance Data

If the COVID-19 pandemic has taught us anything, it is that policy makers, experts, and public managers need to be capable of interpreting comparative data on their government's performance in a meaningful way. Simultaneously, they are confronted with different data sources (and measurements) on COVID-19 without necessarily having the tools to assess these sources strategically. Because of the speed with which decisions are required and the different data sources, it can be challenging for any policy maker, expert, or public manager to make sense of how COVID-19 has an impact, especially from a comparative perspective. Starting from the question “How can we benchmark COVID-19 performance data across countries?,” this article presents important indicators, measurements, and their strengths and weaknesses, and concludes with practical recommendations. These include a focus on measurement equivalence, systems thinking, spatial and temporal thinking, multilevel governance, and multimethod designs.     

What drives compliance with COVID-19 measures over time? Explaining changing impacts with Goal Framing Theory

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to study which factors drive compliance and how the evolving context in society –virus fluctuations and changing government measures – changes the impact of these factors. Extant literature lists many factors that drive compliance – notably enforcement, trust, legitimacy. Most of these studies, however, do not look across time: whether a changing context for citizens changes the impact of factors driving compliance. In this study, we use Lindenberg's Goal Framing Theory to explain the dynamics of these drivers of compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate hypotheses for pro-socialness, trust in government, observed respect for rules, rule effectiveness, rule appropriateness, fear of COVID-19 (severity and proximity), opportunities for pleasure and happiness, as well as worsened income position. We test our hypotheses with data collected at three different moments during the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in Flanders, Belgium. Findings show that over time the constellations of factors that drive compliance change and, later in the pandemic, more distinct groups of citizens with different motivations to comply are identified. The overall conclusion is that the voluntary basis for compliance becomes more fragile over time, with a more differentiated pattern of drivers of compliance emerging. Public policy and communication need to adapt to these changes over time and address different groups of citizens.     

The OBR and the March 2023 Budget: The Travails of UK Economic Growth and the Politics of Technocratic Fiscal Governance

This article places the Office for Budget Responsibility's commentary on the March 2023 UK Budget in political context. It explores how increased independent expert input has transformed the UK economic policy regime, focussing on the complex relationship between rules-based economic governance, independent oversight and fiscal discipline. The technocratic veneer that enshrines the UK fiscal watchdog obscures the inevitable politics of rules-based fiscal governance. The recent budget revealed OBR scepticism about how far budget measures can address the UK economy's long-term structural weaknesses. This underlined the key role for judgment inherent within technocratic fiscal oversight.     

Driving citizen engagement through Twitter: The case of COVID-19 vaccination drive in India

Effective crisis communication is essential to efficiently handle the uncertainty and anxiousness of citizens during the COVID-19 crisis. Government Twitter handles are an excellent platform for faster information dissemination and engaging citizens. While most government ministries actively use Twitter, limited attention is given to its modus operandi. Using data retrieved from the official Twitter handle of 'The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare' (MOHFW) of India, the current study examines the effect of the content characteristics, including content type and media type, on citizen engagement measured as tweet likes and retweets. The findings are based on 3742 tweets from MOHFW, recording more than 4.06 million likes and 1.23 million retweets over the initial six months of the largest COVID-19 vaccination drive. Results show that content-sharing guidance for stakeholders gained the maximum engagement, while the latest news about the COVID-19 crisis resulted in the least engagement. Photos gained maximum engagement, while statuses resulted in the least engagement. The results illuminate the textual features of the government's Twitter communication and will enable policymakers to manage their social media content strategy diligently.     

General Motor Holden's closure in Playford,South Australia: Analysis of the policy response and its implications for health

Deindustrialisation and the closure of automotive manufacturing can differentially affect the socioeconomic prospects of workers and their communities, and contribute to social and health inequity. We used Bacchi's problematisation approach to examine the South Australian (SA) Labor government's policy responses to the General Motors Holden (GMH) Elizabeth plant closure announcement. We focused on the way that these policy responses framed the ‘problem’ of this major economic shock, particularly the extent to which potential social and health equity consequences were addressed. We found a narrow focus on economic strategies, neglecting the compounding impact of poverty in Playford, which may exacerbate health inequity. The community effects from the GMH closure remain uncertain and may be delayed for several years. SA requires better integrated social and economic policies to minimise social and health inequalities, as the consequences of the car manufacturing loss are realised.     

Public Sector Reform in Australia: An Evaluation of the Corporatisation of Sydney Water, 1995 to 2002

The corporatisation of Sydney Water from 1995 onwards formed part of a much broader process of public sector reform in Australia. However, Sydney Water represents an unusual case study of corporatisation since it has embodied two distinct forms of corporate structure over the period 1995 to 2002; both the company model and the statutory model. This article seeks to evaluate the success or otherwise of this corporatisation process using ‘internal’ measures of the performance appraisals undertaken by ‘outside’ bodies in six main forums: The independent assessments against operating licence conditions; NSW government's annual assessments of government businesses performance; Sydney Water's own performance measurement against corporate business plans; water reform measures stipulated by the Council of Australian Governments; industry financial performance indicators as measured by the Water Services Association of Australia; and an international assessment conducted by the UK Office of Water Services.     

Malaysia’s political crisis

After shifting coalition politics in February 2020 all but overturned the results of federal elections in 2018, Malaysia’s new prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, is attempting to hold together a fragile majority in parliament while staking a claim to legitimacy amid the public-health and economic crises caused by COVID-19.     

COMBATING HEALTHCARE COST INFLATION WITH CONCERTED ADMINISTRATIVE ACTIONS IN A CHINESE PROVINCE

This article defies the traditional notion that cost inflation in healthcare could hardly be curbed without the significant revision of economic incentive scheme, but demonstrates the possibility of containing cost inflation with concerted administrative actions in the Chinese context. It examines the case of Fujian Province that embarked on a health bureaucracy‐led policy reform without an alteration of economic levers but mainly using administrative tools to combat cost escalation. Through clearly defined, well designed, targeted and concerted administrative measures, effective cost containment is attainable in China's healthcare sector, at least in the short run. If combined well with the powerful economic instruments, administrative tools would be able to augment their effects in cost containment, provided with the government's possession of hospital ownership. At the heart of Fujian's case are the reassertion of the government stewardship, the reconstruction of the collapsed accountability mechanisms, the reconfiguration of policy instruments, and the revision of administrative incentives, rather than the decreased costs per se. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Party choice in hard times: Group-specific responses to economic downturns in Sweden

This article asks if, when, and why different groups of voters behave differently in the wake of economic downturns. We examine two Swedish elections (1994 and 2010) that were held just after two deep recessions (the financial crisis of 1991–1993 and the 2008–2009 Great Recession). We find that group differences were much larger in 2010 than they were in 1994. After the 1991–1993 recession, the government's electoral support declined across the board. In 2010, there were large differences between voters with low economic status (who were unlikely to support the government) and voters with high economic status (who were likely to do so). Our findings suggest that group differences in electoral behavior after an economic downturn depend on contextual differences across elections. We argue that future research should pay close attention to the magnitude of economic shocks, the development of asset prices (especially real estate), and changes in social policy.     

Mass Administrative Reorganization,Media Attention,and the Paradox of Information

How does media attention influence government decisions about whether to terminate independent administrative agencies? The authors argue that an agency's salience with partisan audiences has a direct effect, but a high media profile can disrupt normal government monitoring processes and obfuscate termination decisions. This argument is evaluated in the context of a recent mass administrative reorganization by the British coalition government using probit and heteroscedastic probit regression models. The evidence suggests that termination is less likely for agencies salient in newspapers popular with the government's core supporters but not those read by its minority coalition partner. We also find that agencies with greater overall newspaper salience as well as younger agencies have a higher error variance.     

Demand for credit,international financial legitimacy,and vulnerability to crises: Regulatory change and the social origins of Iceland's collapse

By analyzing how credit in Iceland expanded to culminate in the country's 2008 financial collapse, this article advances theories about financial crises, regulatory change, and the role of credit. It also complicates popular accounts of Iceland's collapse that focus on the actions of unrestrained bankers by examining the larger context that facilitated these banking practices. After financial liberalization, Icelandic businesses and households had strong demand for credit as a result of: (i) the institutional meaning of credit, (ii) an emergent growth strategy of aggressive international expansion, and (iii) increasing consumption. Incorporating business demand for credit extends demand‐side theory of crises and shows how dominant strategy and shared government and business orientation toward opportunity shaped credit expansion. Credit‐based consumption also stabilized social relations despite increasing inequality. Notwithstanding warnings of risk, regulation did not restrain risky leverage. International market reactions reinforced beliefs about Icelandic success to limit regulatory reach, as Iceland's international financial legitimacy produced market‐based measures that leaders interpreted as signals of economic success.     

Concepts,Crises and Campaigns

SUMMARY

This article enhances understanding of congressional campaigns by exploring how political professionals define campaign crises. Existing academic literature uses binary measures of candidate scandals as a proxy for campaign crises. However, in-depth interviews with senior political consultants and other experienced campaigners demonstrate that political professionals view crises as complex, interactive events. While scandals are one kind of campaign crisis, a variety of other factors account for most crises. After categorizing the different kinds of crises political professionals describe, a typology is developed to analyze the internal, external, expected and/or unexpected dimensions of campaign crises. This article focuses on crises in U.S. House and Senate campaigns, although general lessons apply to campaigns at other levels.     

Was ``V' for Victory or Votes? A Public Choice Analysis of World War II Federal Spending

Several studies on the New Deal have found that politicalfactors played a significant role in determining 1930s federalspending. This suggests that federal spending was not capturedby special interest groups and self-interested politiciansrecently, but rather, that it has been affected by thesefactors since the ``era of big government'' began. We examinethe military emergency of the 1940s to determine whetherfederal spending during this crisis was similarly affected bypolitics.     

Australian Quarantine Policy: From Centralization to Coordination with Mid-Pandemic COVID-19 Shifts

Combining a historical institutionalism approach with institutional isomorphism and punctuated equilibrium, this article analyzes quarantine policy change across 120 years of Australian quarantine history. By anchoring its analysis within specific time periods (the years before the Spanish flu, seven decades of inaction, and multiple post-1997 pandemic updates and responses), the authors highlight when and why policies did or did not change and how the constant push-and-pull between state and Commonwealth institutional ownership altered policy possibilities. The heart of the analysis showcases how Australia's successful COVID-19 response is a unique output of prior quarantine policies, institutional evolution, and mid-pandemic alterations of key national pandemic response plans.     

Health awareness of rural households towards COVID-19 pandemic in India: Evidence from Rural Impact Survey of the World Bank

This paper aims at analysing the level of awareness of the symptoms and the methods of protection from COVID-19 based on the Rural Impact Survey of the World Bank, collected from 5200 households belonging to six states in India that is, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Data has been analysed using chi-square test and regression analysis. Results of the analysis indicate that about 70.8% rural households are aware of the symptom of coronavirus, and 81.9% are aware of the preventive measures for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Analysis indicates a significant association between awareness level on symptoms and prevention of COVID-19 and socio-demographics and location. The study further analyses the key determinants of awareness of COVID-19 symptoms and preventive measures using the logistics regression model, indicating that age, gender, education, income, poverty status, access to information, cash relief and medical services are the determining factors of health awareness on COVID-19 pandemic among rural households in India. Considering the importance of self-protecting measures in fighting the pandemic, this paper highlights the importance of strengthening public awareness for containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Authoritarian populism and response to COVID-19: A comparative study of the United States,India, and Brazil

As the phenomenon of populism is in the preliminary stages of exploratory research, the present study involves an empirical investigation involving a case study of the United States, India, and Brazil to examine whether a correlation exists between populism and management of COVID-19. The study adopts the ideational approach of populism as a set of ideas or discourse to review how core conceptual features of populism have impacted on management of COVID-19. The study has two main objectives: (1) to examine whether populism in the United States, India, and Brazil has determined “a populist response” to the pandemic in dealing with the health crises and (2) to explore the management of COVID-19 in the states led by right-wing populism and the commonality of populist approaches adopted in handling the health crisis. Comparing the three states' statistical data of management models, the study has argued that common populist mechanisms such as distrust for experts, contempt for institutions, and suspicion of “others” have guided the US, India, and Brazilian leadership response to COVID-19. It further argues that leadership in the United States, India, and Brazil has prevented effective management by politicizing the crisis, aggravating social polarization, and contradicting expert advice. Moreover, populist and nationalist orientation of the leadership has evaded responsibility in these states with the leadership blaming ethnicities for spreading the virus and by weakening societal solidarity.     

Opposition party policy shifts in response to no‐confidence motions

No‐confidence motions (NCMs) are attempts by opposition parties to publicise the government's failings in a salient policy arena, and previous research has shown that they often negatively affect citizens' evaluations of governing parties' competence and damage their electoral prospects. Yet currently there is a lack of understanding of how opposition parties respond ideologically to these NCMs. It is argued in this article that opposition parties should distance themselves from the government challenged by NCMs to show that they are different from the incompetent government and to compete for the votes that the government is likely to lose. Using a sample of 19 advanced democracies from 1970–2007, empirical evidence is presented that NCMs encourage political parties to move their positions away from the government's position, especially in the presence of reinforcing negative signals about government performance. These results have important implications for our understanding of opposition party policy change, for the economic voting literature, and for the spatial and valence models of party competition.     

Gender Analysis and Community Consultation: The Role of Women's Policy Units

Community consultation has become a widely accepted part of policy development in Australia. In this article, we consider how, in an Australian context, consultation can be incorporated within gender analysis processes. Gender analysis refers to systematic procedures to detect and correct gender bias in the full range of government programs, projects and policies. We draw upon insights from a qualitative case study to argue that policy workers located within women's policy units could play a key role in designing and coordinating meaningful and inclusive consultation. We conclude that well‐resourced women's policy offices within Australian governments are essential to ensuring effective, equitable consultation exercises are included within gender analysis processes.