The (Surprising) stability of youth crime rates

Despite the profound demographic and socioeconomic changes characterizing family life in recent years, youth crime rates have remained more or less constant since 1971. This finding is of interest given the intense public concern regarding the welfare of children. It also serves as a convenient basis for projecting the future volume of youth crime.     

Age structure and crime rates: The conflicting evidence

Because arrest rates are especially high for teenagers and young adults, criminologists have long contended that age structure changes affect crime trends. In recent years, however, this belief has been drawn into question because crime has not declined even though high-crime age groups have shrunk. We argue that the age/crime relationship is probably exaggerated because the high arrest rates for younger persons are due partly to their lesser ability to escape arrest, younger persons commit more group crime, and the age structure of victims should be taken into account. We then review 90 studies that regress crime rates on age structure; only a small minority consistently finds significant relationships. Because of methodological problems in this research, one cannot conclude that the age/crime relationship does not exist, but the weight of evidence shows that forecasts based on demographic trends are not likely to be helpful.     

Predicting risk for early police arrest

A model designed to predict early arrest is presented. Family process variables were hypothesized to be indirectly related; a childhood measure of an antisocial trait was assumed to be directly related to risk for early onset. Longitudinal data were collected for two cohorts of families living in high-crime areas of a mediumsized metropolitan area. Multiagent/multimethod definitions for both the family process and the antisocial trait concepts defined the latent constructs. Official records of police contacts were collected during the ensuing 5 years. The data for the hazard rates showed that risk for police arrest varied significantly as a function of the child's age. A continuous time regression analysis showed that most of the individual family process constructs and the antisocial trait construct were significantly related to an altered risk for police contacts. A multiple regression analysis showed a similar effect in predicting age at onset. In keeping with the hypotheses in both analyses, when all variables were entered simultaneously the contributions of the family process constructs were nonsignificant; only the contributions for the trait score and social disadvantage remained significant. The more antisocial the child, the greater the risk for early arrest.     

Projecting crime rates: An age,period, and cohort model using ARIMA techniques

The object of this paper is to generate forecasts of U.S. index property and violent crimes. A three-step procedure is employed. First, the age-specific crime rates are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects. Then the period and cohort effects are characterized using regression and transfer functions, respectively. Finally, these statistical models are used to generate forecasts of the period and cohort effects and hence forecasted values of the age-specific crime rates. The forecasts are compared with existing data and found to be quite accurate. Issues concerning the forecast efficiency of this approach compared to that of others are also discussed.     

Aggregation effects on male-to-female arrest rate ratios in New York State, 1972 to 1984

The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of data aggregation on a specification of the relationship between sex and arrest rate trends. The analysis focuses on the empirical implications when arrest data are aggregated across dimensions that are likely to affect the sex-crime relationship. The data for the analysis consist of 4,119,358 male and female adult arrests in New York State for the 13-year period ending in 1984. Results indicate that race, regional differences, and the legal seriousness of the arrest charge produce significantly different patterns of sex convergence across time. On the basis of these results, we suggest serious limitations in past analyses of female crime rates and in the value of Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data for addressing theoretically relevant questions concerning the social correlates of official crime.     

Trace DNA success rates relating to volume crime offences

In this study, 252 trace DNA samples (from handled surfaces) from 201 burglary, robbery and drugs cases were compiled to assess success rates and to interpret the value of trace DNA evidence in volume crime investigations. The average amount of DNA recovered from the trace DNA samples collected was 1.7 ng. Full or major (12 or more alleles) profiles were recovered from 14% of samples. Samples from firearms and burglary points of entry were the least successful. Mixtures were recovered from 21% of samples, presenting a case for the collection of more elimination profiles to enable more samples to be used for database purposes. The research highlighted the difficulties in collecting data relating to the success rates of samples. Computerised automation of this process would be extremely beneficial in the assistance of policy development, method application, training, and investigative usefulness.     

Connecting the dots: Crime rates and criminal justice evaluation research

The National Research Council’s report on evaluating anticrime programs contains sensible suggestions for improving evaluation research in criminal justice but neglects the important role of substantive theory in linking evaluations of anticrime initiatives to variation in crime rates across time and place. A working knowledge of crime rates is essential for designing and evaluating anticrime programs. This essay calls for the development of a policy evaluation infrastructure that would support the continuous monitoring of crime rates, generate knowledge of crime-producing conditions, and link evaluation research findings to one another and to expected policy outcomes, notably crime reduction.

Gender differences and patterns of arrest across two generations of Cuban immigrants in the United States

The present study is based on a secondary-data analysis of a subsample of Cuban immigrants residing in the United States. While there are no significant differences in arrest rates between U.S. natives of Cuban descent and their foreign-born counterparts, life transitions have a differential impact on behavioral outcomes when young men and women of Cuban ancestry are compared. Job instability increases the risk of arrest for men, while being a single parent increases the risk of arrest for women. Growing up in a two-parent family and marriage have crime protective effects for men, while religiosity decreases the probability of arrest for women. In both subsamples, having a family member arrested was the strongest predictor of one’s arrest status in early adulthood.     

Locking up my generation: Cohort differences in prison spells over the life course

Crime rates have dropped substantially in the United States, but incarceration rates have remained high. The standard explanation for the lasting trend in incarceration is that the policy choices from the 1980s and 1990s were part of a secular increase in punitiveness that has kept rates of incarceration high. Our study highlights a heretofore overlooked perspective: that the crime–punishment wave in the 1980s and 1990s created cohort differences in incarceration over the life course that changed the level of incarceration even decades after the wave. With individual-level longitudinal sentencing data from 1972 to 2016 in North Carolina, we show that cohort effects—the lingering impacts of having reached young adulthood at particular times in the history of crime and punishment—are at least as large (and likely much larger) than annual variation in incarceration rates attributable to period-specific events and proclivities. The birth cohorts that reach prime age of crime during the 1980s and 1990s crime–punishment wave have elevated rates of incarceration throughout their observed life course. The key mechanism for their elevated incarceration rates decades after the crime–punishment wave is the accumulation of extended criminal history under a sentencing structure that systematically escalates punishment for those with priors.     

An economic model of social sensitivity: The case of individual criminal behavior

In general, economists have modeled criminal behavior as a problem in time allocation under uncertainty. Their Friedman-Savage utility models have been based on the binomial probability distribution and then tested using aggregate data on crime rates and neglect the nonpecuniary aspects of crime. This paper overcomes the shortcomings of previous work. Specifically, criminal activity is modeled with an underlying geometric probability process and explicitly accounts for the moral and social compromise involved in becoming a criminal. The empirical model enables the quantification of the criminal's moral and social sensitivity using data based on a consolidated file of police records and a cohort survey of criminals and noncriminals. On the basis of this unique data set, it is found that the included individual criminals are risk averse and that gang membership reduces social sensitivity.     

A city-level analysis of property crime clearance rates

Theft, burglary, and vehicle theft are among the most frequently committed and least commonly cleared Part I offenses in the United States, but have received disproportionately little attention in the clearance literature. This study contributes to recent efforts to remedy this shortage by presenting offense-specific analyses of burglary, larceny, and vehicle theft clearance rates in a sample of 110 large US cities. Data were gathered from the Uniform Crime Report, the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics survey, and the American Community Survey. Independent variables comprised social disorganization measures (e.g. residential instability, poverty, etc.) and policing variables, including the use of broken windows policing. Although broken windows policing is related to higher clearance rates in a few prior studies, that effect was not observed in the present work. Racial diversity and police spending per capita (which were negatively associated with clearance rates) were the only variables that were significantly associated with the clearance of all three crimes.     

The Impact of Police Stops on Precinct Robbery and Burglary Rates in New York City, 2003-2010

New York City experienced a dramatic reduction in crime during the 1990s and continuing through the first decade of the current century. Researchers and commentators have debated the role of policing in New York’s crime drop, including the crime impact of New York’s policy of “stop, question, and frisk” (SQF)—yet, prior research on the crime-reduction effects of SQF is limited in important respects. We seek to overcome many of these limitations in a study of SQF effects on yearly precinct-level robbery and burglary rates in New York between 2003 and 2010. Contrary to prior research, the study reveals few effects of SQF on robbery and burglary. We caution against drawing definitive conclusions from both the current and prior research and recommend that future research address both the impact of SQF on crime and possible collateral effects on the rights and liberties of citizens in the communities most affected by the policy.     

The Relationship Between Crime and Stop,Question, and Frisk Rates in New York City Neighborhoods

The current study builds on prior research in an analysis of the relationship between monthly violent and property crime rates in New York City census tracks and the New York City Police Department’s highly contentious stop, question, and frisk (SQF) policy. We find that higher doses of SQF are associated with small crime reductions generally and specific crime reductions for stops of blacks, Hispanics, and whites. But the way the policy was implemented precludes strong causal conclusions. Now that a federal court has intervened and SQF is undergoing change, the court monitor, New York Police Department, and city officials should partner with researchers in experimental evaluations to determine the optimal mix and dosage of enforcement strategies that safeguard the rights and liberties of citizens while enhancing public safety.     

Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: A Comment on Greenberg

Several ways in which the specification of the Cantor and Land (1985) conceptual model of transient relationships between aggregate unemployment and crime rate fluctuations differs from that of Greenberg (2001) are noted. It follows that we do not accept Greenberg's Eq. (1) as a valid theoretical representation of the processes of interest. We briefly review the substantive context from which our investigation began in the mid-1980s. We also review the time series properties of our model and of the aggregate unemployment and crime rates used in its estimation. We note how the time series behavior of various crime rates determines which parts of the Cantor and Land model are and are not likely to be estimated as statistically significant for those series. We conclude with some comments on the limitations of aggregate time series research designs for testing the behavioral hypotheses used to generate expected relationships between aggregate unemployment and crime rates and suggest some alternative research designs.     

Cross-national comparison of homicide: Age/sex-adjusted rates using the 1980 U.S. homicide experience as a standard

Cross-sectional studies of crime have typically relied on crude crime rates when making comparisons between countries. Crude rates control for population size but implicitly assume that all members of the population are equally at risk. Empirical studies have shown that, cross-nationally, risk varies by age and sex. Standardization of crime rates removes the confounding effects of variable age and sex population distributions. Since age/sex-specific crime rates are generally unavailable for many countries, the method of indirect standardization is the most desirable technique. Age/sex-adjusted homicide rates for 76 countries are presented, and two comparative measures are suggested. It is shown that while the United States has a higher homicide rate than all but 15 countries; in most cases, the magnitude of the difference, not controlling for age/sex differences, is overestimated. Crude rates underestimate differences between the United States and countries with higher rates of homicide.     

The Market for Scientific Crime Prevention: A Comparative Study of Canada and Venezuela

Crime prevention is an activity that, sooner or later, requires the concourse of science. But the dictates of science may not mesh well with the social, institutional and political considerations that are persistent and powerful determinants of collective action. To the extent that they are ignored, crime prevention is less scientific and more pragmatic. Using a marketing metaphor, this paper examines selected aspects of the supply of and demand for scientific crime prevention in Canada and Venezuela from 1949 to the present. In both countries, academic entrepreneurs are revealed to be a necessary factor in the sale of crime prevention to government. On the demand side, governments adopt and adapt crime prevention policies in relation to their broader perspective on social problems and social change. However, rising crime rates and climates of urgency reduce the attractiveness of crime prevention. Scientific crime prevention is easier to sell when crime rates are stable or declining.     

The interaction of age with the correlates and causes of crime

We use data from a survey covering ages 15–94 to test the Hirschi/Gottfredson hypothesis that the correlates and causes of crime do not interact with age. These data reveal some nonchance interaction between age and demographic and theoretical predictors of criminal behavior that is localized in specific age categories and around particular variables and/or offenses. Overall, however, such interaction does not appear to be substantial, nor does it seem to have important consequences for generalizing from age restricted samples, particularly where generalization is of the most common type-from youth samples to adults. Therefore, despite some results contrary to a strict assertion that the causes and correlates of crime are the same for all ages, our findings support the thrust of the Hirschi/Gottfredson interaction hypothesis.     

Are Trends in Specialization Across Arrests Explained by Changes in Specialization Occurring with Age?

The current work uses a sample of serious offenders (N = 2,086) to test the extent to which variation in specialization with age accounts for trends in specialization across arrests. Analyses show that controls for age do not have a large influence on trends across arrest in drug offense specialization or trends across arrest in miscellaneous offense specialization. In contrast, results show that controls for age do influence trends in specialization across arrests for violent offenses and for property offenses. For both of these offense types, trends in specialization across arrests prior to controls for age were positive, while trends in specialization across arrests after controls for age were negative. Results show that many of the trends in specialization across arrests found in the earlier literature are likely influenced by changes in specialization occurring with age.     

Revisiting the Relationship Between the Economy and Crime: The Role of the Shadow Economy

Despite decades of research exploring the relationship between the economy and crime, there is a lack of clarity in this literature. Questions remain, particularly with respect to how the economy is measured and whether the relationship between the economy and crime is the same across contexts. The literature to date has overlooked what is called the “shadow” economy, which represents unreported economic activity. We examine the relationship between traditional measures of the legitimate economy (e.g. unemployment) and crime as well as whether the shadow economy moderates this relationship using a panel of U.S. states from 1997 to 2008. Our results show that the shadow economy reduces the strength of the relationship between the legitimate economy and crime, and the effect of the economy on crime is conditional on the size of the shadow economy.     

Constructing an index of officially recorded crime: The use of confirmatory factor analysis

Researchers using officially reported crime statistics must frequently combine rates of individual crimes into a single composite. The most popular composite is the FBI Crime Index, which is the sum of the seven Part I crimes; alternatives include forming separate indices for personal and property crimes and weighting the crime categories by their seriousness before summing them. In this paper we construct crime composites through the use of confirmatory factor analysis methods. The results suggest that the measurement assumptions of conventional crime indices are problematic and demonstrate how more satisfactory alternatives can be developed with confirmatory factor analysis techniques.