Turning Point Analysis: Using Survey Research to Call Changes in Consumer Behavior and Predict Sales Taxes

Forecasters often disagree on revenue predictions because of differing techniques. Some states, such as Utah, have turned to the use of survey research methods to avoid this dilemma. This article reviews many of the national forecasting models examining consumer sentiment currently in use. And it compares the Utah experience with surveys used in other states.     

Contextual orientation in policy analysis: The contribution of Harold D. Lasswell

Criticized for its generally positivist and technocratic orientation, the literature of public policy analysis has begun to generate proposals that would create a convergence between the field and the wider movement for a post-positivist restructuring of social inquiry. Ironically, critics have often focused on policy science as the epitomy of positivism and technocracy, giving little attention to the actual position of the figure responsible for the term - Harold D. Lasswell. Centering on Lasswell's key concept of contextual orientation, this article argues that, despite positivist influences, he developed an approach to inquiry and a proposal for a policy science profession which together clearly transcend positivism and technocracy- which, indeed, anticipate recent post-positivist proposals. Implications for policy analysis of a project of contextual orientation are also considered, along with problems in Lasswell's focus on professionalization.     

Reviews

Orlando Figes, A People's Tragedy: The Russian Revolution 1891–1924. London: Jonathan Cape, 1996, xx + 923 pp., £25.00

Hafeez Malik (ed.), The Roles of the United States, Russia and China in the New World Order. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1997, xvi + 333 pp., £47.50.

Leszek Buszynski, Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Westport and London: Praeger, 1996, xiv + 243 pp., £46.95.

Mette Skak, From Empire to Anarchy: Postcommunist Foreign Policy and International Relations. London: C. Hurst & Company, 1996, x + 340 pp., £35.00 h/b, £14.95 p/b.

Hans von Zon, The Future of Industry in Central and Eastern Europe. Aldershot: Avebury, 1996, x + 164 pp., £35.00.

Bartlomiej Kaminski (ed.), Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1996, xviii + 430 pp.

Ben Fowkes, The Disintegration of the Soviet Union: A Study in the Rise and Triumph of Nationalism. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1997, xii + 273 pp., £40.00

Juan J. Linz & Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Southern Europe, South America, and Post‐Communist Europe. London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996, xx + 479 pp., £15.50.

David Lane, The Rise and Fall of State Socialism. Cambridge: Polity Press, 1996, 233 pp., £12.95.

Reneo Lukic & Allen Lynch, Europe from the Balkans to the Urals: The Disintegration of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996, xvii + 436 pp.

Thomas Cushman & Stjepan G. Mestrovic (eds), This Time We Knew: Western Responses to Genocide in Bosnia. New York: New York University Press, 1996, ix + 412 pp., $50.00 h/b, $18.95 p/b.

Derek Hall & Darrick Danta (eds), Reconstructing the Balkans. A Geography of the New Southeast Europe. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 1996, xx + 260 pp., £45.00.

Ajay Patnaik. Central Asia. Between Modernity and Tradition. New Delhi: Konark Publishers, 1996, viii + 238 pp.

Rudolf L. Tokes, Hungary's Negotiated Revolution: Economic Reform, Social Change and Political Succession, 1957–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, xxiii + 544 pp., £19.95.

John D. H. Downing, Internationalizing Media Theory, Transition, Power, Culture, Reflections on Media in Russia, Poland and Hungary 1980–95. London: Sage, 1996, xviii + 269 pp., £45.00 h/b, £13.95 p/b.

Rogers Brubaker, Nationalism Reframed: Nationhood and the National Question in the New Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, xi + 202 pp., £35.00 h/b, £12.95 p/b.

Donald P. Steury (ed.), Intentions and Capabilities: Estimates on Soviet Strategic Forces, 1950–1983. Washington DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1996, xxii + 504 pp.

R. W. Davies, Crisis and Progress in the Soviet Economy, 1931–1933. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996, xviii + 612 pp., £65.00.

William Chase, Jeffrey Burds, S. V. Praslova, A. K. Sokolov & E. A. Tiurina (eds), Russian Stale Archive of the Economy: A Research Guide: I. Guide to Collections. Moscow: Blagovest, 1994, xx + 679 pp.

V. P. Butt, A. B. Murphy, N. A. Myshov & G. R. Swain (eds), The Russian Civil War. Documents from the Soviet Archives. London: Macmillan, 1996, xvii + 217 pp., £15.99.

Ilya Somin, Stillborn Crusade: The Tragic Failure of Western Intervention in the Russian Civil War, 1918–1920. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1996, ix + 236 pp., £21.95, $32.99.

David R. Shearer, Industry, State, and Society in Stalin's Russia, 1926–1934. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996, xiv + 263 pp., £33.50 h/b, £14.95 p/b.

Peter H. Solomon Jr., Soviet Criminal Justice under Stalin. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997, xvii + 494 pp., £55.00 h/b, £19.95 p/b.

Richard G. Hovannisian, The Republic of Armenia, Volume III, From London to Sèvres, February‐August 1920, xx + 534 pp., and Volume IV, Between Crescent and Sickle: Partition and Sovietization, xii + 496 pp. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1996. £35.00 each volume.

Ian D. Thatcher & James D. White (eds), Journal of Trotsky Studies. Glasgow: Institute of Russian & East European Studies, 1993–1996, Nos. 1–4, £10.00 (Institutions), £5.00 (Individuals).

Mikhail Baitalsky, Notebooks for the Grandchildren. Recollections of a Trotskyist Who Survived the Stalin Terror, Edited and translated by Marilyn Vogt‐Downey. Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey, 1996, xviii + 447 pp.

Leopoldina Plut‐Pregelj & Carole Rogel, Historical Dictionary of Slovenia. London: The Scarecrow Press, Inc, 1996, xxvii + 345 pp., £63.65.     

The performance framework: a systems approach to understanding performance management

The article presents a framework for better understanding the nature of performance in organisations involved in the provision of overseas development assistance (ODA). It uses a case study to illustrate the three main features of the framework which are: goals, performance assessment and performance management. It is asserted that a vibrant performance culture is one which links these features together to form an organisation capable of continual improvement through producing effective learning. Organisational culture determines the nature of linkages between the three sub‐systems. The article stresses how the notion of performance may extend beyond various forms of evaluation and scrutiny to being part of a sentient learning system rooted in an organisation's culture and structure. The article concludes with consideration of key issues associated with the generation of a reflexive learning organisation operating in the ODA sector. These are concerned with understanding the role and nature of systems, organisational vision, the embracing of diversity, training and accountability. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Challenges for donor agency country‐level performance assessment: a review

This review of country‐level performance assessment in donor agencies is primarily based upon the experiences documented by bilateral donors to developing countries. The review suggests that four emerging themes can be identified in the literature on country‐level performance review: ownership, decentralisation and leadership, accountability and learning and complexity. The review considers the implementation of ‘results‐based’ approaches used by a number of international agencies and examines their relationship with ‘evidence‐based’ approaches. A key challenge, in the development of performance assessment, is bringing in a stronger evidence‐based approach into the planning and evaluation of donor country‐level programmes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Whether one votes and how one votes

The aim of this paper is to determine if whether one votes effects the vote that is cast. Using an economic model of voting and observed voting results on nuclear power referenda, the answer is a resounding yes. Overcoming registration, turnout, and “roll off” hurdles dramatically increases the odds of voting against nuclear power. Indeed, participation swamps both economic and preference variables in the explanation of nuclear power voting outcomes. The lesson is that there is a structure to participation at the polls that should not be ignored by those interested in analyzing voting outcomes.     

Age estimation of individuals aged 5–23 years based on dental development of the Indonesian population

Dental development can be used to estimate age for forensic purposes. However, most of the currently available methods are less reliable for the Indonesian population due to population variability. This study presents a new method and evaluates other methods that utilize dental development to estimate the age of Indonesian people. Panoramic radiographs of 304 young Indonesian people aged 5–23 years old were analysed for deciduous tooth root resorption, permanent tooth calcification, and eruption. The extent of tooth root resorption was determined based on AlQahtani’s modified Moorrees et al. method. Tooth calcification was classified based on a modified Demirjian et al. method. Tooth eruption was evaluated based on AlQahtani’s modified Bengston system. The sequence of tooth root resorption, and permanent tooth calcification and eruption were grouped into 19 age categories (from 5–23 years old) in an atlas. The differences between males and females, between maxillary and mandibular teeth, and between right and left teeth were also analysed. There were minimal significant differences of tooth development between males and females, and between the right and left teeth (P > 0.05), while the maxillary and mandibular dental development was significantly different (P < 0.05). The newly developed atlas showed the development of the right side of maxillary and mandibular tooth of combined sex of Indonesian population. Another 34 panoramic radiographs of known-age and sex individuals from Indonesia were assessed using the newly developed Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population, Ubelaker’s Dental Development Chart, The London Atlas of Human Tooth Development and Eruption by AlQahtani, and the Age Estimation Guide-Modern Australia population by Blenkin-Taylor. Accuracy was assessed by comparing estimated age to actual chronological age using the Bland-Altmand test. Results show that the smallest range of error was found in the Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population (−0.969 to 1.210 years), followed by The London Atlas of Human Tooth Development and Eruption by AlQahtani (−2.013 to 1.990 years), the Age Estimation Guide-Modern Australia population by Blenkin-Taylor (−2.495 to 2.598 years), and the Dental Development Chart by Ubelaker (−2.960 to 3.289 years). These findings show that the Atlas of Dental Development constructed in this study performs better than the other three methods and presents greater accuracy of age estimation in the Indonesian population.

Key points

• Dental development such as deciduous tooth root resorption, permanent tooth calcification, and tooth eruption can be used to estimate age for forensic purposes.
• The development of the teeth are influenced by genetic, ethnicity, and sex, therefore an age estimation method must be constructed based on the same population.
• There were minimal significant differences in tooth development between male and female, and between right and left teeth, but there was significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth.
• The Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population constructed in this study allowed more accurate age estimation of the Indonesian sample than the other methods tested.

Supplemental data for this article are available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/20961790.2021.1886648.     

Bingo! Cheating and legally suspect practices in one of North Carolina’s only forms of legalized gambling

Bingo is one of two legalized forms of gambling in the state of North Carolina. This paper is largely a product of information gleaned from an undercover police operation conducted by a special state task force constructed by the State Attorney General in 1983. The investigation concerned violation of state law designed to regulate bingo activity. This report provides the reader with the development of state law associated with bingo operations, and concentrates on the illegitimate methods used by professional operators to cheat bingo patrons. Legislation designed to crack-down on bingo abuse is discussed as well Gambling is one of the most controversial social activities yet one of the least studied forms of social behavior (King, 1985). Bingo is a specific form of legalized gambling which has received very little attention by social scientists. There have been, however, a few studies which address the characteristics and motivations of bingo players. For example, it has been suggested that bingo is primarily a female activity (Dixie, 1987). However, it has been found that motivations among male and female players differ. Females are motivated more by social contact with other players, whereas men are motivated more by a need for economic advancement (King, 1985). Although some studies exist on the characteristics of bingo players, there is a dearth of research on the operators of bingo games, particularly those operators who ply their trade in a legally suspect fashion. This paper focuses upon the legally suspect mechanisms utilized by some professionals who run bingo gambling operations. The controversy over gambling often extends to state legislatures where lawmakers must wrestle with the question of whether or not to allow legalized gambling within their borders. On the one hand, advocates of legalized gambling cite potential advantages such as the creation of employment opportunities, its potential for enhancement of state revenues, the recreational value of such activity for consumers and the general enhancement of tourism within states having legalized gambling. On the other hand, critics of legalized gambling proclaim its evils such as the perceived relationship of gambling to organized crime, the belief that gambling breeds other social ills (e.g. theft or other crimes of economic desperation) and the belief that gambling can become a psychologically addictive disease which can contribute to individual and family impoverishment as well as community disorganization. North Carolina is one state in which the legislature has demonstrated strong resistance to the allowance of legalized gambling operations. Two exceptions exist, however. North Carolina allows two forms of legalized gambling, bingo games and raffles. This paper focuses upon bingo gambling operations. The central thesis of this paper is bingo was originally legalized to provide tax-exempt, charitable organizations a means of revenue enhancement which would help fund their socially worthwhile endeavors. The legislative changes allowing this form of gambling, however, have created opportunities for professional game operators whose major motivation is personal economic enrichment (versus economic enhancement of charitable organizations). The personal economic enrichment motive is offered to account for the various forms of cheating which were observed in a special investigation of a sample of bingo operations. In a review of theoretical explanations of gambling behavior Kim King (1985) suggests an extension of the functional approach which he labels an “Economic/Status” explanation. This explanation stresses the positive functions of gambling for society and the individual. According to the economic/status explanation, the positive functions of gambling (for the individual) include an innovative opportunity for economic enrichment, success, and status (King, 1985). We would like to suggest that such reasons explain why a number of legally suspect bingo operations have emerged in North Carolina. The same reasons appear to explain the use of various schemes by some bingo operators to cheat their patrons. In short, bingo profits appear to be the primary reason for the massive increase in the number of bingo operations. Other theoretical factors are suggested to account for the attraction of patrons to bingo games. According to King (1985), the “functionalist” explanation of the recent popularity of bingo gambling is due to the tension-release afforded to players of bingo; bingo offers an exciting and innovative way to attain economic success. A concurrent Marxian explanation sees bingo gambling as an opiate of the oppressed, providing a false sense of control and success (King, 1985). Other theoretical factors suggested by King include the symbolic interactionist idea that gambling is a way to display one’s self to others in order to gain character (Goffman, 1967) and the idea that gambling for some people is a means of conspicuous consumption (Veblen, 1899). These factors may account for the popularity of bingo operations, however the focus of this paper is not upon an explanation of why bingo has become so popular. This paper will outline some of the legally suspect methods used by unscrupulous bingo game operators. The information for this report is based upon an undercover police investigation of illegal bingo activity in North Carolina. The investigation was to explore the nature of illegal bingo gambling within the state. Bingo gambling has a unique history in North Carolina; its recent legal history will be discussed in this treatise as well as the various legitimate and illegitimate methods of bingo game operators, state law designed to regulate bingo gambling and measures taken by “professional” (versus “charitable”) operators to protect their lucrative but legally suspect trade.