Turning Point Analysis: Using Survey Research to Call Changes in Consumer Behavior and Predict Sales Taxes

Forecasters often disagree on revenue predictions because of differing techniques. Some states, such as Utah, have turned to the use of survey research methods to avoid this dilemma. This article reviews many of the national forecasting models examining consumer sentiment currently in use. And it compares the Utah experience with surveys used in other states.     

Contextual orientation in policy analysis: The contribution of Harold D. Lasswell

Criticized for its generally positivist and technocratic orientation, the literature of public policy analysis has begun to generate proposals that would create a convergence between the field and the wider movement for a post-positivist restructuring of social inquiry. Ironically, critics have often focused on policy science as the epitomy of positivism and technocracy, giving little attention to the actual position of the figure responsible for the term - Harold D. Lasswell. Centering on Lasswell's key concept of contextual orientation, this article argues that, despite positivist influences, he developed an approach to inquiry and a proposal for a policy science profession which together clearly transcend positivism and technocracy- which, indeed, anticipate recent post-positivist proposals. Implications for policy analysis of a project of contextual orientation are also considered, along with problems in Lasswell's focus on professionalization.     

Reviews

Orlando Figes, A People's Tragedy: The Russian Revolution 1891–1924. London: Jonathan Cape, 1996, xx + 923 pp., £25.00

Hafeez Malik (ed.), The Roles of the United States, Russia and China in the New World Order. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1997, xvi + 333 pp., £47.50.

Leszek Buszynski, Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Westport and London: Praeger, 1996, xiv + 243 pp., £46.95.

Mette Skak, From Empire to Anarchy: Postcommunist Foreign Policy and International Relations. London: C. Hurst & Company, 1996, x + 340 pp., £35.00 h/b, £14.95 p/b.

Hans von Zon, The Future of Industry in Central and Eastern Europe. Aldershot: Avebury, 1996, x + 164 pp., £35.00.

Bartlomiej Kaminski (ed.), Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1996, xviii + 430 pp.

Ben Fowkes, The Disintegration of the Soviet Union: A Study in the Rise and Triumph of Nationalism. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1997, xii + 273 pp., £40.00

Juan J. Linz & Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Southern Europe, South America, and Post‐Communist Europe. London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996, xx + 479 pp., £15.50.

David Lane, The Rise and Fall of State Socialism. Cambridge: Polity Press, 1996, 233 pp., £12.95.

Reneo Lukic & Allen Lynch, Europe from the Balkans to the Urals: The Disintegration of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996, xvii + 436 pp.

Thomas Cushman & Stjepan G. Mestrovic (eds), This Time We Knew: Western Responses to Genocide in Bosnia. New York: New York University Press, 1996, ix + 412 pp., $50.00 h/b, $18.95 p/b.

Derek Hall & Darrick Danta (eds), Reconstructing the Balkans. A Geography of the New Southeast Europe. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 1996, xx + 260 pp., £45.00.

Ajay Patnaik. Central Asia. Between Modernity and Tradition. New Delhi: Konark Publishers, 1996, viii + 238 pp.

Rudolf L. Tokes, Hungary's Negotiated Revolution: Economic Reform, Social Change and Political Succession, 1957–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, xxiii + 544 pp., £19.95.

John D. H. Downing, Internationalizing Media Theory, Transition, Power, Culture, Reflections on Media in Russia, Poland and Hungary 1980–95. London: Sage, 1996, xviii + 269 pp., £45.00 h/b, £13.95 p/b.

Rogers Brubaker, Nationalism Reframed: Nationhood and the National Question in the New Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, xi + 202 pp., £35.00 h/b, £12.95 p/b.

Donald P. Steury (ed.), Intentions and Capabilities: Estimates on Soviet Strategic Forces, 1950–1983. Washington DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1996, xxii + 504 pp.

R. W. Davies, Crisis and Progress in the Soviet Economy, 1931–1933. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996, xviii + 612 pp., £65.00.

William Chase, Jeffrey Burds, S. V. Praslova, A. K. Sokolov & E. A. Tiurina (eds), Russian Stale Archive of the Economy: A Research Guide: I. Guide to Collections. Moscow: Blagovest, 1994, xx + 679 pp.

V. P. Butt, A. B. Murphy, N. A. Myshov & G. R. Swain (eds), The Russian Civil War. Documents from the Soviet Archives. London: Macmillan, 1996, xvii + 217 pp., £15.99.

Ilya Somin, Stillborn Crusade: The Tragic Failure of Western Intervention in the Russian Civil War, 1918–1920. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1996, ix + 236 pp., £21.95, $32.99.

David R. Shearer, Industry, State, and Society in Stalin's Russia, 1926–1934. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996, xiv + 263 pp., £33.50 h/b, £14.95 p/b.

Peter H. Solomon Jr., Soviet Criminal Justice under Stalin. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997, xvii + 494 pp., £55.00 h/b, £19.95 p/b.

Richard G. Hovannisian, The Republic of Armenia, Volume III, From London to Sèvres, February‐August 1920, xx + 534 pp., and Volume IV, Between Crescent and Sickle: Partition and Sovietization, xii + 496 pp. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1996. £35.00 each volume.

Ian D. Thatcher & James D. White (eds), Journal of Trotsky Studies. Glasgow: Institute of Russian & East European Studies, 1993–1996, Nos. 1–4, £10.00 (Institutions), £5.00 (Individuals).

Mikhail Baitalsky, Notebooks for the Grandchildren. Recollections of a Trotskyist Who Survived the Stalin Terror, Edited and translated by Marilyn Vogt‐Downey. Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey, 1996, xviii + 447 pp.

Leopoldina Plut‐Pregelj & Carole Rogel, Historical Dictionary of Slovenia. London: The Scarecrow Press, Inc, 1996, xxvii + 345 pp., £63.65.     

The performance framework: a systems approach to understanding performance management

The article presents a framework for better understanding the nature of performance in organisations involved in the provision of overseas development assistance (ODA). It uses a case study to illustrate the three main features of the framework which are: goals, performance assessment and performance management. It is asserted that a vibrant performance culture is one which links these features together to form an organisation capable of continual improvement through producing effective learning. Organisational culture determines the nature of linkages between the three sub‐systems. The article stresses how the notion of performance may extend beyond various forms of evaluation and scrutiny to being part of a sentient learning system rooted in an organisation's culture and structure. The article concludes with consideration of key issues associated with the generation of a reflexive learning organisation operating in the ODA sector. These are concerned with understanding the role and nature of systems, organisational vision, the embracing of diversity, training and accountability. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Challenges for donor agency country‐level performance assessment: a review

This review of country‐level performance assessment in donor agencies is primarily based upon the experiences documented by bilateral donors to developing countries. The review suggests that four emerging themes can be identified in the literature on country‐level performance review: ownership, decentralisation and leadership, accountability and learning and complexity. The review considers the implementation of ‘results‐based’ approaches used by a number of international agencies and examines their relationship with ‘evidence‐based’ approaches. A key challenge, in the development of performance assessment, is bringing in a stronger evidence‐based approach into the planning and evaluation of donor country‐level programmes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Whether one votes and how one votes

The aim of this paper is to determine if whether one votes effects the vote that is cast. Using an economic model of voting and observed voting results on nuclear power referenda, the answer is a resounding yes. Overcoming registration, turnout, and “roll off” hurdles dramatically increases the odds of voting against nuclear power. Indeed, participation swamps both economic and preference variables in the explanation of nuclear power voting outcomes. The lesson is that there is a structure to participation at the polls that should not be ignored by those interested in analyzing voting outcomes.     

Age estimation of individuals aged 5–23 years based on dental development of the Indonesian population

Dental development can be used to estimate age for forensic purposes. However, most of the currently available methods are less reliable for the Indonesian population due to population variability. This study presents a new method and evaluates other methods that utilize dental development to estimate the age of Indonesian people. Panoramic radiographs of 304 young Indonesian people aged 5–23 years old were analysed for deciduous tooth root resorption, permanent tooth calcification, and eruption. The extent of tooth root resorption was determined based on AlQahtani’s modified Moorrees et al. method. Tooth calcification was classified based on a modified Demirjian et al. method. Tooth eruption was evaluated based on AlQahtani’s modified Bengston system. The sequence of tooth root resorption, and permanent tooth calcification and eruption were grouped into 19 age categories (from 5–23 years old) in an atlas. The differences between males and females, between maxillary and mandibular teeth, and between right and left teeth were also analysed. There were minimal significant differences of tooth development between males and females, and between the right and left teeth (P > 0.05), while the maxillary and mandibular dental development was significantly different (P < 0.05). The newly developed atlas showed the development of the right side of maxillary and mandibular tooth of combined sex of Indonesian population. Another 34 panoramic radiographs of known-age and sex individuals from Indonesia were assessed using the newly developed Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population, Ubelaker’s Dental Development Chart, The London Atlas of Human Tooth Development and Eruption by AlQahtani, and the Age Estimation Guide-Modern Australia population by Blenkin-Taylor. Accuracy was assessed by comparing estimated age to actual chronological age using the Bland-Altmand test. Results show that the smallest range of error was found in the Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population (−0.969 to 1.210 years), followed by The London Atlas of Human Tooth Development and Eruption by AlQahtani (−2.013 to 1.990 years), the Age Estimation Guide-Modern Australia population by Blenkin-Taylor (−2.495 to 2.598 years), and the Dental Development Chart by Ubelaker (−2.960 to 3.289 years). These findings show that the Atlas of Dental Development constructed in this study performs better than the other three methods and presents greater accuracy of age estimation in the Indonesian population.

Key points

• Dental development such as deciduous tooth root resorption, permanent tooth calcification, and tooth eruption can be used to estimate age for forensic purposes.
• The development of the teeth are influenced by genetic, ethnicity, and sex, therefore an age estimation method must be constructed based on the same population.
• There were minimal significant differences in tooth development between male and female, and between right and left teeth, but there was significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth.
• The Atlas of Dental Development in the Indonesian Population constructed in this study allowed more accurate age estimation of the Indonesian sample than the other methods tested.

Supplemental data for this article are available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/20961790.2021.1886648.