Managing Power Transitions: Towards a 21st Century Concert of Powers

Power shifts and especially power transitions in the international system are often associated with (military) confl ict. Power Transition Theory (PTT) does offer an analysis of this phenomenon but no remedy. We suggest easing the tensions related to ongoing worldwide power shifts by introducing a new informal multilateral security governance institution, based on the idea of a concert of powers. The historical European Concert of the 19th century prevented the outbreak of great power wars for more than a generation by providing a cooperation framework, based on shared norms and common procedures. In this article we explore the possibility of utilizing a modernized concert of powers as a framework for managing the coming power shifts. In order to do so, we introduce two new elements in Power Transition Theory: (1) the importance of the (dis) satisfaction of the declining hegemon with the anticipated future order, and (2) a broader multilateral framework of major powers that overcomes the Power Transition Theory’s traditional bilateral “duel” situation. On this basis, institutionalized power transition management becomes possible. We then work out the norms, strengths and weaknesses of the historical concert and update it with a few new features that would be necessary for it to be successful in the 21st century.     

转基因食品到底安全不安全?

<正>杰弗里·M.史密斯是美国"说明转基因生物产品健康危害"的首席代言人。2003年,他写了《种子的欺骗》,阐述转基因食物严重而未知的副作用。2007年,他又在新书《转基因赌局》中,揭露了有关转基因生物安全性试验的内幕。1996年,柯克·阿兹维多应聘进入孟山都公司,其工作是销售转基因作物,那时并不是加薪吸引了他,而是孟山都公司首席执行官罗伯特·夏皮罗的著作成为了他应聘的动力。夏     

东南亚和特朗普政府:暗礁与困境之间

正特朗普上任以来,最初的孤立主义倾向逐步转化成一种下意识的国际主义。从"美国优先"的地缘战略颂歌逐步让位于"使美国再度伟大"的口径。这可能是近年来争议最多的总统过渡期,特朗普激化了21世纪以来开始的地缘政治权力结构调整。其对俄国总统瓦尔德迈尔·普京的友好措辞导致众多与克林姆林宫往来的欧盟国家发出各类挑战,同时     

美国水牛湾惨案,来自山谷的求助(上)

1972年2月,水牛湾地区发生的灾难震惊了美国.某煤矿公司用于过滤洗煤厂排黑废水的一座巨型大坝坍塌了,山谷里绵延17英里(1英里=1 609.344米)的一个矿区小镇因此被摧毁. 在灾难中,125人死亡,几千人倾家荡产.电视台的晚间新闻播放着洪水激流的画面,黑色水流席卷着尸体瞬间闪过,啜泣的人们向记者哭诉自己的故事,他们因悲痛而扭曲的面孔在近镜头下触目惊心.     

Surviving the suicides of significant others: a case study

Psychological pain has been reported to be major contributing factor for completed suicide, and classical suicidology based its wisdom on this construct. In this paper we report the case of a patient whose family experienced a high number of suicides apparently due to an escalation of psychological pain in the family members after the successive suicides. We also briefly discuss the problem of helping survivors after the suicide of loved one.