Analysing credit risk in large local governments: an empirical study in Spain

In governments throughout the world, bank lending excesses, solvency issues and worsening credit ratings have all contributed to raising risk premiums and impeding access to credit, thus provoking a major financial problem in the public sector. Accordingly, tax authorities and regulators need to analyse the causes of public sector bank debt, doing so through the joint study of idiosyncratic and systematic variables, an area that has been neglected in previous research. This paper examines idiosyncratic and systematic factors that may influence local government credit risk through an empirical study of the performance of 148 large Spanish municipalities during 2006–2011. We identify individual factors relevant to the probability of local government default (such as dependent population, per capita income and debt composition) and also determinants associated with macroeconomic developments, such as gross domestic product and the risk premium.     

Judicial alignment and criminal justice: evidence from Russian courts

This paper investigates the effect of informal ties between judges (as represented by regional court chairpersons) and prosecutors on the repressive implementation of criminal justice in Russia in the area of fraud convictions. The authors utilize criminal law statistics of Russian regional courts for 2006–2010 to determine the alignment between chairpersons and prosecutors by measuring the length of their mutual career paths. The informal ties have a strong impact on trial outcome, which, however, changes over time. During periods of high bureaucratic risks and uncertainty, regions with a higher extent of informal ties between judges and prosecutors exhibit more repressive law enforcement. If external risks decrease, informal coalitions seem to increase the independence of the courts, insulating them from bureaucratic pressures and limiting their repressiveness.     

Can the cultural environment affect governmental transparency on sustainability? Useful measures for policy makers and practitioners

The aim of this study is to provide useful knowledge to policy makers and practitioners on how to promote the practices of sustainability transparency in local governments, based on the influence of the cultural environment on the disclosure of governmental information on sustainability, including social, environmental and economic information. We perform a comparative analysis of the effects of four types of variables (demographic, sociological, economic and financial) on the disclosure of information on sustainability in two different contexts: Anglo-Saxon and Nordic administrative cultures. Our results show that the factors of the administrative culture context do influence practices of transparency on governmental sustainability. In the Anglo-Saxon environment, the explanatory variables are population size, dependent population and education level. For the Nordic area countries, the main variables are unemployment, dependent population, financial autonomy and debt per capita. Taking into account the study results obtained, we propose measures to facilitate the dissemination of sustainability information in each cultural environment.     

Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study

The current international crisis in public finances has made financial sustainability a key issue for governments. Although the European Union (EU) and other international organisations have recommended governments to monitor demographic and economic variables, few studies have considered the influence of these variables on financial sustainability. This paper seeks to identify and analyse the drivers and risk factors that influence the financial sustainability of local government. The findings identify both risk factors (unemployment and population aged under 16 years) and drivers (budgetary outcome) of financial sustainability, which may constitute a useful basis for decision-taking by managers and policy-makers.     

Common Wealth

After reviewing developments in human rights law and international law – in particular the domestication of international human rights law and the rise of the democratic norm in international law – the importance of these developments for the Commonwealth and for its member states is highlighted and linked to many of the programmes and policies that the Commonwealth Secretariat has recently launched. This paper discusses these developments and others in order to stress the wealth of potential advantages for Commonwealth member states and their citizens that flow from a common commitment under the rule of law to human rights and democracy. The authors endeavour to show that such wealth is more than mere economic benefit – as important as that undoubtedly is – and that citizens stand to reap a moral system of government, one which expands the opportunities for popular participation in political processes and puts an end to social practices that marginalise some citizens and empower others.     

有关民族、宗教问题的几点看法

民族关系、宗教关系,是人类社会常见的两种社会关系;民族关系、宗教关系既是反映人们社会身份的重要符号,同时也在某种程度上反映了一定的社会关系;作为两种社会历史文化现象,民族、宗教问题是一定社会诸多矛盾的结合产物;在社会急剧变迁的今天,民族、宗教问题已成为世界各国高度关注的热点问题;对于我国来说,民族、宗教问题的处理好坏,直接影响到国家社会的稳定、发展、和谐.     

Human Rights and Ethnic Data Collection in Hungary

The article analyzes ethnic data collection pertaining to criminal justice in Hungary. With such a sensitive and delicate issue at hand, Hungary has decided on an evasive approach, resisting ethnic data collection by law enforcement authorities. The author argues that this approach has become one of the obstacles in fighting discrimination and ethnic profiling. Moreover, Hungary’s restrictive approach to ethno-national data classification also causes severe constitutional problems in other, noncriminal legal circumstances, where ethnic data is used in the context of additional rights and affirmative protection provided for ethno-national minorities. The first part of the article describes general problems relating to ethnic data collection and analyses of the Hungarian minority protection framework, in particular, the minority self-government structure (a unique constitutional institution). The second part focuses on the criminal justice system; the author’s aim is to show that prohibiting the official recognition and collection of data on ethnicity by criminal justice authorities has potentially ethnically discriminatory consequences. This paper was written under the aegis of the Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

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Testing Zaller’s Reception and Acceptance Model in an Intense Election Campaign

The paper provides a test of Zaller’s reception and acceptance model. The theory describes conditions under which a political message is received, and, if received, accepted or rejected. The study deals with the 1988 Canadian election that was fiercely fought over one central issue, the Free Trade Accord with the United States. We use the 1988 Canadian Election Study campaign rolling cross-section survey, and we test Zaller’s propositions about who is most likely to receive and then accept party messages. Our findings provide little support for the model. We suggest that when an issue is hotly debated in an election campaign voters who receive party messages are able to connect these messages to their values and predispositions whatever their level of political awareness.

The calculus of voting: An empirical test

Abstract. According to the rational choice model, the calculus of voting takes the form of the equation R = BP − C, where the net rewards for voting (R) are a function of the instrumental benefits from the preferred outcome compared to others (B) and the probability (P) of casting the decisive vote that secures these benefits, minus the costs of becoming informed and going to the polls (C). Here, we provide a systematic test of this model. The analysis relies on two surveys, conducted during the 1995 Quebec referendum and the 1996 British Columbia provincial election, in which very specific questions measured each element of the model. As well, this study incorporates two other factors that can affect the propensity to vote — Respondents' level of political interest and their sense of duty. We find that B, P, and C each matter, but only among those with a relatively weak sense of duty. The feeling that one has a moral obligation to vote is the most powerful motivation to go to the polls. We conclude that the rational choice model is useful, but only in explaining behaviour at the margins of this important norm.