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981.
The use of probability propositions is widespread in Intelligence estimation and strategic forecasts, as in everyday life. This paper attempts to give clear meaning to the use of probability statements for future strategic assessment. The first half presents possible interpretations in the philosophy of probability, while the second part applies the understandings of the first half to the Intelligence estimation process. A recommendation for a combination of ‘a priori’ interpretation of probability with a higher level of ‘relative frequency’ interpretation is the result of this paper. 相似文献
982.
Much has been written about European banking union and Germany’s role in shaping it. Missing, however, is a comprehensive explanation for Germany's contradictory positions on banking union: German policymakers gambled on a single supervisory mechanism, and a single resolution mechanism yet drew the line on European-wide deposit insurance. We explain Germany’s mixed positions on banking union by drawing on prospect theory and theories of policy salience. 相似文献
983.
In the first systematic study of what college applicants invoke when required to submit a diversity essay, we revisit many settled assumptions on both the left and the right about how such an essay would operate after Grutter and Gratz as well as after the passage of anti–affirmative action ballot initiatives. Our data are a sample of 176 diversity essays submitted to the University of Michigan in the immediate aftermath of the University's Supreme Court win, analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively with special attention to the differences that the essay writer's race and class position make. We find that in many respects the essays are similar when written by applicants from similar backgrounds but different races, and that conservative critics were wrong to assume the essay would function simply as a way of announcing oneself as an under‐the‐table affirmative action candidate. Rather than suggesting a straightforward lineup of advantage and disadvantage, we suggest rather that the essay is a vehicle for the youngest generation of citizens to both receive and send back a new conception of difference that has some essentializing elements but overall is turning in a postracial, cosmopolitan direction. 相似文献
984.
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988.
The Sexual Offences Act 2003 introduced significant reforms to the offence of rape, amid concerns regarding the low reporting and conviction rates for
rape. One of the key aims of the Act was to improve the law relating to consent, in order to assist a jury in their decision
making process. In addition, disquiet had been expressed with regards to the subjective nature of the mens rea of rape. Consequently,
the 2003 Act reformulated the law so as to introduce an objective test. This article discusses the findings of a qualitative
research project undertaken with 14 Barristers in the North West of England, in order to investigate counsels’ opinions regarding
the 2003 reforms. Drawing upon data collected from semi-structured interviews, the article examines barristers’ perspectives
with regards to the definition of consent, the ‘consent presumptions’, and the reformulated mens rea. In conclusion, it will
be argued that while the barristers were not overly optimistic about the reforms introduced by the 2003 Act, they were also
opposed to further reform to the substantive law and increased jury directions. Barristers argued that the law relating to
rape should remain as simple as possible. 相似文献
989.
Obtaining as much particulate material as possible from questioned items is desirable in forensic science as this allows a range of analyses to be undertaken and the retention of material for others to check. A method of maximising particulate recovery is described using a kidnap case, where minimal staining on clothing (socks) remained as possible indications of where the victim had been held captive. Police intelligence led to a hostage scene that was sampled. Brushing of the socks recovered about 50 sand grains with some silt: ultrasonic agitation and centrifuging recovered over 300 grains of sand, silt and clay. These were visually compared to scene and control samples, allowing exclusion of 52 samples and the retention of one comparison sample as well as other possibles, saving time and money, but maximising sample quantity and quality. 相似文献
990.
Davidovic A Bell K Ferguson C Gorski E Campbell A 《Journal of interpersonal violence》2011,26(15):3098-3126
The finding of symmetry in intimate partner aggression is now generally accepted, but the convergence of male and female rates in these relationships remains unexplained. From qualitative analysis of male and female focus group discussions, we identified factors believed to influence the expression of aggression toward targets differing in sex and degree of intimacy. These factors were then used to construct a questionnaire in which 355 respondents indicated the applicability of the items to conflicts with a partner, a same-sex friend, and an opposite-sex friend. Principal component analysis revealed a clear two-factor structure of impelling forces (tending to provoke or initiate aggression) and inhibitory forces (tending to suppress or diminish the likelihood of aggression). Participants' scores on scales derived from these two factors were used in the subsequent analyses. Men reported lower inhibition and greater impulsion toward same-sex friends than to female friends and partners, who did not differ significantly from one another. Women showed lower inhibition to male targets, regardless of relationship, than to a female target. However, women rated their male partners as significantly higher on impelling forces than their male friends, who in turn were rated significantly higher than female friends. The results are broadly consistent with a sex-of-target effect corresponding to a chivalry norm held by both sexes that inhibits the expression of aggression toward women. The reasons why women are especially impelled to aggression by intimate partners are explored. Disaggregating the dynamics of interpersonal conflict into impelling and inhibitory components may prove useful in understanding and treating dispute escalation and resolution. 相似文献