Policing Australia’s ‘heroin drought’: using an agent-based model to simulate alternative outcomes

Our paper examines how street-level drug markets adapt to a macro-level disruption to the supply of heroin, under three experimental conditions of street-level drug law enforcement: random patrol, hot-spot policing and problem-orientated policing. We utilize an agent-based model to explore the relative impact of abstractions of these three law enforcement strategies after simulating an ‘external shock’ to the supply of heroin to the street-level drug market. We use 3 years of data, which include the period of the ‘heroin drought’ in Melbourne (Australia) that commenced in late 2000 and early 2001, to measure changes in a selected range of crime and harm indicators under the three policing conditions. Our results show that macro-level disruptions to drug supply have a limited impact on street-level market dynamics when there is a ready replacement drug. By contrast, street-level police interventions are shown to vary in their capacity to alter drug market dynamics. Importantly, our laboratory abstraction of problem-orientated policing is shown to be the optimal strategy to disrupt street-level injecting-drug markets, reduce crimes and minimize harm, regardless of the type of drug being supplied to the market.

A Multi-mediation Model on the Relations of Bullying,Victimization, Identity,and Family with Adolescent Depressive Symptoms

This study investigated a multi-mediation model of the relationship between bullying behavior, peer victimization, personal identity, and family characteristics to adolescent depressive symptoms in 194 high school students, 12–18 years of age. In the first model, peer victimization mediated the relation between bullying behavior and depressive symptoms. In the second model, personal identity mediated the relation between peer victimization and depressive symptoms. In the final model, the two mediation models were combined. The relative influence of family characteristics on all variables in the two mediation models was studied using structural equation modeling. The results supported both mediation models and confirmed the influence of family characteristics on all variables in the mediation models. This study indicates that victimization by one’s peers has consequences for adolescents’ psychological health when their personal identity is affected. In addition, the study was able to model several processes in which family characteristics were related to adolescent depressive symptoms. Moreover, the final combined model (in which the two mediation models and the influence of family characteristics on all variables were confirmed) explained half of the variance in adolescent depressive symptoms.

Introduction: The (Ab)use of Language in Legal Discourse

International Journal for the Semiotics of Law - Revue internationale de Sémiotique juridique -