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191.
Anthony Mughan 《Electoral Studies》1987,6(3)
The advent of three-party politics in Britain with the February 1974 general election has introduced an uncertainty into electoral and parliamentary politics unprecedented in the post-war period. In these circumstances, election forecasting has assumed a special interest and significance for academics, politicians, political commentators, and the like. This article presents and assesses the performance of three forecasting instruments, the ‘incremental’, ‘opinion polling’ and ‘economic’ models. They are estimated over the period 1951–1983 and are then used to predict the share of the vote won by the governing, opposition and Alliance parties in the 1987 general election. All are successful in the sense that they forecast the continuation of the Conservative party's electoral dominance. with Labour and the Alliance a poor second and third. Only the economic model, however, generates a reasonable forecast of the gap separating the major parties and it is used to predict the distribution of parliamentary seats between them. It is seen to be substantially more accurate for the government than for the opposition, which is itself a reflection of the uncertainty introduced into British politics by the emergence of a significant third party in recent elections. 相似文献
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Congress imposes statutory deadlines in an attempt to influence agency regulatory agendas, but agencies regularly fail to meet them. What explains agency responsiveness to statutory deadlines? Taking a transaction cost politics approach, the authors develop a theory of responsiveness to deadlines centered on political feasibility to explain how agency managers map rulemaking onto calendar and political time. This theory is tested on all unique rules with statutory deadlines published in the Unified Agenda of Federal Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions between 1995 and 2012. The argument and findings about the timing and ultimate promulgation of rules have implications that reorient the study of the regulatory agenda from legal and political into more managerial terms. 相似文献
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195.
Peguero AA 《Journal of interpersonal violence》2011,26(18):3753-3772
Without a doubt, exposure to violence and victimization can be profoundly detrimental to the overall well-being and development of all youth. Moreover, violence and victimization that occurs within a school context is particularly alarming because a successful educational process is essential toward establishing socioeconomic success later in life. The educational consequence of exposure to violence and victimization at school is uncertain for racial and ethnic minority students. This study utilizes data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 and incorporates multilevel modeling techniques to examine the impact of violence and victimization at school on dropping out. The results indicate Black/African Americans and Latino American students who are victimized at school are at higher risk of dropping out. The implications of the evident racial and ethnic disparities in the relationship between victimization and dropping out within the U.S. school system are discussed. 相似文献
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198.
Morelato M Beavis A Ogle A Doble P Kirkbride P Roux C 《Forensic science international》2012,217(1-3):101-106
Several studies have indicated that there are potential environmental sources of particles resembling inorganic primer found in gunshot residues (GSR); as a consequence examiners are reluctant to unambiguously assign the origin of inorganic particles. If organic gunshot residues (OGSR) were found in combination with inorganic particles, the possibility of environmental sources could be potentially eliminated, thereby significantly enhancing the strength of the evidence. Methods have been previously described whereby GSR specimens can be analysed for the presence of OGSR or inorganic GRS (IGSR). However, no methods have been reported that allow the analysis of both OGSR and IGSR on the same specimen. Described in this article is a direct method using desorption electrospray ionisation-mass spectrometry (DESI-MS) for the detection of methyl centralite (MC), ethyl centralite (EC) and diphenylamine (DPA) on adhesive tape GSR stubs typically used for scanning electron microscopy-energy-dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDX) analysis. The optimisation of numerous parameters was conducted using an experimental design. The results indicate that direct analysis of these organic components of GSR is possible although some limitations were also identified. This initial investigation has also indicated that subjecting stubs to DESI analysis does not interfere with subsequent SEM-EDX analysis of primer residues; therefore the technique described herein allows a comprehensive examination of GSR that would be highly probative in the event that both OGSR and IGSR are detected in the same specimen. 相似文献
199.
Beech AR Mandeville-Norden R Goodwill A 《International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology》2012,56(1):29-49
Analysis of psychometric data from a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed a U.K. probation-based sex offender treatment program was carried out to assess (a) the effectiveness of therapy in the short term and (b) the longer term implications of treatment in relation to sexual recidivism. It was found that 12% (51 offenders) of the sample had recidivated within 2 to 4 years. Of these recidivists, 86% (44 offenders) had been reconvicted for a sexually related offense. One hundred thirty-five offenders (33%) demonstrated a treated profile (i.e., demonstrated no offense-specific problems and few, or no, socioaffective problems at the posttreatment stage). This group was compared with a sample of offenders deemed as not responding to treatment, matched by their levels of pretreatment risk/need. It was found that a significantly smaller proportion (n = 12, 9%) of treatment responders had recidivated, compared to the treatment nonresponders (n = 20, 15%), indicating a 40% reduction in recidivism in those who had responded to treatment (effect size = .18). Matching length of treatment to the offenders' level of pretreatment risk/need (i.e., higher risk/treatment-need offenders typically undertook longer treatment) reduced the rate of recidivism among this group to the level of recidivism observed among the lower risk/need offenders. 相似文献
200.
Brandon C. Welsh Anthony A. Braga Meghan E. Hollis-Peel 《Journal of Experimental Criminology》2012,8(4):415-431