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The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument. 相似文献
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Kimone M. Antoine B.S. Shirin Mortazavi Angela D. Miller M.S. Lisa M. Miller Ph.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2010,55(2):513-518
Abstract: The identification of aged latent fingerprints is often difficult, especially for those of children. To understand this phenomenon, the chemical composition of children’s versus adults’ latent fingerprints was examined over time using Fourier transform infrared microscopy. Hierarchical cluster analysis revealed that children’s and adults’ prints were distinguishable for up to 4 weeks after deposition, based on differences in sebum composition. Specifically, adults had a higher lipid content than children, but both decreased over time, attributable to the volatility of free fatty acids. The aliphatic CH3, aliphatic CH2, and carbonyl ester compositions changed differently in adults versus children over time, consistent with higher cholesterol and cholesteryl esters in children’s prints and wax esters and glycerides in adults’ prints. Thus, fingerprint composition changes with time differently in children versus adults, making it a sensitive metric to estimate the age of an individual, especially when the age of the print is known. 相似文献
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Raul JS Berthelon L Tracqui A Ludes B 《The American journal of forensic medicine and pathology》2002,23(3):277-280
The authors report the case of a 58-year-old man found dead by his son in the forest where he had gone to cut wood for winter. Initial examination showed an upper left laterocervical wound compatible with a stab wound. Radiography and autopsy performed the next day showed a piece of metal located in the left part of the occipital bone, associated with a half-ring fracture of the occipital bone and consequent diffuse subarachnoid hemorrhage. Death was attributed to a spinal shock after impact at the cervicocephalic junction. Investigators returned to the scene and found a few more metal elements and also a 20-cm deep and 40-cm wide crater underneath a fire the deceased had set. Army experts concluded that the metal pieces belonged to an ATM 9 antitank rifle grenade used by the U.S. Army during World War II. Death was considered accidental, the deceased having unfortunately set a fire over the grenade. 相似文献