Ballistic missile security risks facing Japan

Since the end of the Cold War, Japan's strategic value to the United States has undergone a qualitative shift, leaving uncertainty about how much the US can be depended upon to complement Japan's defense capacity. North Korean, Chinese, and Russian arsenals contain TBMs that could destroy major Japanese cities, yet Japan virtually lacks any independent means to counter them. Lieutenant Colonel Atsumasa Yamamoto was seconded to IIPS by the Japan Defense Agency. In this study, he analyzes Japan's current ability to deal with TBM risks. He also assesses the US TMD program and the extent of US support that Japan can expect.     

Application of superimposition-based personal identification using skull computed tomography images

Superimposition has been applied to skulls of unidentified skeletonized corpses as a personal identification method. The current method involves layering of a skull and a facial image of a suspected person and thus requires a real skeletonized skull. In this study, we scanned skulls of skeletonized corpses by computed tomography (CT), reconstructed three-dimensional (3D) images of skulls from the CT images, and superimposed the 3D images with facial images of the corresponding persons taken in their lives. Superimposition using 3D-reconstructed skull images demonstrated, as did superimposition using real skulls, an adequate degree of morphological consistency between the 3D-reconstructed skulls and persons in the facial images. Three-dimensional skull images reconstructed from CT images can be saved as data files and the use of these images in superimposition is effective for personal identification of unidentified bodies.     

Evaluation of Computed Tomography as a Screening Test for Death Inquest

Abstract: The Japanese method of inquest, which depends mostly on external examinations, may misdiagnose a considerable number of accidental deaths and suicides as death by disease. We conducted computed tomography (CT) scans of 80 cases for which police concluded death by disease or natural causes based on police investigations into the circumstances and results from external examinations. The cause of death was clearly determined by CT scan in 17 of 80 cases. Ten cases underwent autopsy after the police suspected criminality based on results of the CT examinations. The results suggest CT scan may be a tool for preventing a number of overlooked crimes and accidents in Japan. However, it cannot be a perfect tool for discerning between death by disease and other causes of death without cooperation from the investigative agencies and subsequent forensic examinations such as autopsy and toxicological tests.     

Understanding the Past: Statistical Analysis of Causal Attribution

Would the third‐wave democracies have been democratized without prior modernization? What proportion of the past militarized disputes between nondemocracies would have been prevented had those dyads been democratic? Although political scientists often ask these questions of causal attribution, existing quantitative methods fail to address them. This article proposes an alternative statistical methodology based on the widely accepted counterfactual framework of causal inference. The contribution of this article is threefold. First, it clarifies differences between causal attribution and causal effects by specifying the type of research questions to which each quantity is relevant. Second, it provides a clear resolution of the long‐standing methodological debate on “selection on the dependent variable.” Third, the article derives new nonparametric identification results, showing that the complier probability of causal attribution can be identified using an instrumental variable. The proposed framework is illustrated via empirical examples from three subfields of political science.     

A fatal methamphetamine poisoning associated with hyperpyrexia

After self-administration of 0.05g of methamphetamine hydrochloride intravenously on three occasions at intervals of 3h, a 25-year-old female methamphetamine abuser ingested approximately 1.5 g of methamphetamine hydrochloride, and was found dead 3–4 h later. Complete rigor mortis was observed 1–2 h after death and the rectal temperature was 38.4°C 3–4 h after death.Distribution of methamphetamine and amphetamine in the body was analyzed by chemical ionization mass fragmentography. Amphetamine/methamphetamine concentrations (μ mol/100 g) were $\text{0.26}\text{28.8}$ in blood, $\text{0.64}\text{68.2}$ in brain, $\text{0.96}\text{117.1}$ in liver, $\text{0.53}\text{50.6}$ in kidney, and $\text{1.49}\text{1045}$ in stomach contents. Total amount of methamphetamine hydrochloride in stomach contents was 11.6mg.Amphetamine in tissues was a metabolite of methamphetamine, and amphetamine in stomach contents resulted from excretion into saliva and gastric mucous excretion. With rectal temperature at death estimated at more than 41°C, it would seem that hyperpyrexia played an important role in causing death from methamphetamine poisoning.     

The application of minisatellite variant repeat mapping by PCR (MVR-PCR) in a paternity case showing false exclusion due to STR mutation

A boy and a girl with their mother brought a paternity suit against an alleged but deceased father. We tested six conventional genetic markers, the AmpliType PM+ DQA1 and twelve STR loci the children and mother together with the alleged paternal grandparents. We also DNA typed the bloodstain found later in the alleged father's medical record. Only the result at D3S1358 in a nineplex STR system excluded the alleged father from parentage of the boy, whereas all markers were inclusive for the girl. Accordingly, we performed sequence analysis at D3S1358 to confirm the presence of a paternal exclusion or mutation. The sequence analysis indicated that the boy's allele 17 could have originated from either of the alleged father's allele 16 or 18 by a single-step mutation associated with slippage mutation in STR loci. We carried out minisatellite variant repeat mapping by PCR (MVR-PCR) at loci D1S8 (MS32) and D7S21 (MS31A) and mapped allele haplotypes of all individuals except the deceased alleged father. The MVR-PCR analysis showed that the boy has no inconsistency with the relationship between the alleged grandparents, and was very effective at increasing the paternity index (PI) value. We conclude that there is biological relationship between not only the girl but also the boy and the alleged father.     

Trade,export controls,and non‐proliferation in the Asia‐Pacific region

Abstract

Stemming the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) — nuclear, biological, and chemical — and the missiles to deliver them comprises a crucial element in contemporary security policies. Many observers believe the utility of export controls in this effort is diminishing. While the authors believe that controls on the transfer of military and dual‐use items remain relatively effective and efficient compared to the alternative policy tools, they argue for the development of a more compelling rationale for export controls than restraining proliferation. The authors suggest that an emphasis on the links between non‐proliferation, regional stability, and economic prosperity could help policymakers transcend the more traditional view that such controls sacrifice economic gain for military security. Specifically, the authors argue that proliferation is bad for regional stability and regional economic growth, and that a prudent multilateral system of controls on dual‐use items establishes a foundation for both greater economic and security benefits.     

A new triplex STR system without irregular alleles by silver staining and its potential application to forensic analysis

In order to increase the discriminating power of DNA analysis in forensic science, we devised a new triplex STR system using three novel STR loci we previously reported, D14S299 (wglc5), D15S233 (wgldl), and 9q2h2. We designated this system a CDH triplex system. The CDH triplex system showed a high discriminating power, especially in Caucasians. This system is composed of three STR loci showing only regular tetranucleotide repeat alleles. We easily enlarged the databases mainly of Japanese, using this system, and compared them with those of Caucasian and Chinese. This CDH triplex system therefore appears to be useful for forensic practice.