Juror Perceptions of the Legitimacy of Legal Authorities and Decision Making in Criminal Cases

Literature on trust in legal authorities and institutions demonstrates that trust affects individual behavior, yet there is little research on whether attitudes toward legal authorities such as the police or courts influence juror behavior as a third party assessing evidence and determining legal outcomes for others. Additionally, the literature on juror decision making confirms that juror race is an important predictor of juror decisions, but explanations for differences among racial groups are not clear. Since minority groups hold less favorable attitudes toward legal authorities generally, legitimacy theory may help explain racial differences in decision making among jurors. Using data from nearly 2,000 jurors in felony trials, this research utilizes multilevel modeling techniques to find that jurors' trust in legal authorities is related to juror outcomes, though the effect of juror trust and confidence in the police is opposite that of juror trust and confidence in the courts. Additionally, juror race conditions the effect of trust in police and courts. Trust is a stronger predictor of both perceptions of evidence and voting for black jurors than it is for white jurors.     

Confronting a Powerful China with Western Characteristics

The rapid rise of Chinese economic and military power has produced the most fundamental change in the global system since the end of the Cold War, and it poses vital questions about China's future direction. Many Western analysts argue that China's great power will cause it to become more like the West, i.e., like Western great powers. Other Western analysts believe that China will continue to be the same, i.e., like the China of the past few decades. An alternative interpretation, however, is that China's new power will enable it to become even more Chinese than it is now, i.e., to become more like the traditional and imperial China that existed before the Western intrusions of the 19th century. This China was the “Central State” of a distinctive Chinese world order, operating with distinctive conceptions about diplomatic relations, military strategy, and economic exchange. However, the new China will be unlike the old China in at least two important ways. It will be a naval, and not just a land, power, and it will be a financial, and not just a trading, power. In other words, it will be a powerful China with Western characteristics. As a formidable naval and financial power, China will present fundamental challenges to the United States and to both the long-standing U.S. security order in the Western Pacific and the long-standing “Washington Consensus” about the global economic order.     

Risk Assessment in Environmental Policymaking

A problem in policymaking for prevention of harm to persons and the environment concerns the probability of harm occurring—that is, the measure of risk involved. Policymakers have almost always sought to calculate the risk involved in proposed courses of action. Their methods have often been irrational and their estimates erroneous. Explicit analysis of risk to society and systematic methods for estimating it emerged with the advent of science as more reliable procedures for prediction and decision-making. However, as with many other forms of analysis, the assessment of risk has carried its own risk—namely an undue reliance on logical quantitative techniques which fail to address the root causes of public concern and apprehension. Common-sense assessments of risk tell us more what risks people regard as acceptable and risks arouse anxiety and protest. Carnage from accidents on the nation's highways arouse much less apprehension than nuclear accidents even though actual risk from automobiles is much greater than injury or death from nuclear reactors. The following paper makes the case that the art and science of risk assessment will fall short of social and political realities until the psychological and cultural aspects of risk receive more adequate attention.