A: Reviews: general

REVEALING THE HOLY LAND: THE PHOTOGRAPHIC EXPLORATION OF PALESTINE. By Kathleen Stewart Howe. Museum of Art, Santa Barbara, 1997. 144pp. $US 60 (hb), $US 29.95 (pb).

THE EMERGENCE OF THE ‘ABBASID AUTOCRACY: THE ‘ABBASID ARMY, KHURASAN AND ADHARBAYJAN. By Fukuzo Amabe, Kyoto University Press, 1995 xi + 322pp.

THE BUKHARANS: A DYNASTIC, DIPLOMATIC AND COMMERCIAL HISTORY, 1550–1702. By Audrey Burton. Richmond, Surrey, UK; Curzon Press, 1997; xxxvii + 664pp. ISBN 0 7007 0417 5. £65.00 (hb).

THE REVOLUTION OF 1908 IN TURKEY. By Aykut Kansu (No. 58 in Social, Economic and Political Studies of the Middle East and Asia). Leiden, E.J. Brill, 1997. 341 pp.

THE MIDDLE EAST IN GLOBAL CHANGE: THE POLITICS AND ECONOMICS OF INTERDEPENDENCE VERSUS FRAGMENTATION. Edited by Laura Guazzone. Basingstoke and London, Macmillan Press Ltd and Instituto Affari Inter‐nazionali, 1997, xiv + 285 pp., 8 maps, £45 (hb).

THE QUEST FOR HEGEMONY IN THE ARAB WORLD. THE STRUGGLE OVER THE BAGHDAD PACT. By Elie Podeh. Leiden, E. J. Brill, 1995

ISTITUZIONI DEL MONDO MUSULMANO. Giorgio Vercellin. (Biblioteca Studio, n. 27). Torino, Einaudi, 1996. 419 pp.+ vxx. 36,000 It lire.

THE FORBIDDEN MODERN: CIVILIZATION AND VEILING. By N?lüfer göle. (Critical Perspectives on Women and Gender). Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press, 1996. 173 pp. $15.95.

WITHIN THE CIRCLE: PARENTS AND CHILDREN IN AN ARAB VILLAGE. By Andrea B. Rough. The History and Society of the Modern Middle East Series. New York, Columbia University Press, 1997. 263pp.

OVERCOMING TRADITION AND MODERNITY: THE SEARCH FOR ISLAMIC AUTHENTICITY. By Robert D. Lee. Oxford, Westview Press, 1997. 216pp.

ARABIC TODAY: A STUDENT, BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL COURSE IN SPOKEN AND WRITTEN ARABIC. By John Mace. Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1996. 287 pp. £19.95. 1‐hour audio cassette to accompany the book £5.99.

THE SOCIOLINGUISTIC MARKET OF CAIRO: GENDER, CLASS AND EDUCATION. By Niloofar Haeri. London, Kegan Paul International, 1996, xviii + 272pp.

THE EGYPTIAN THEATRE IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY (1799–1882). By P. C. Sadgrove. Reading, Ithaca Press, 1996. ix + 214pp.

PALESTINIAN IDENTITY, THE CONSTRUCTION OF MODERN NATIONAL CONSCIOUSNESS. By Rashid Khalidi, New York, Columbia University Press, 1997. 304 pp. $34.00/£22.95.

RELIGION, DEMOCRACY AND ISRAELI SOCIETY. By Charles Liebman. Reading, Harwood Academic Publishers, 1997. 115 pp. £13.00.

TO RULE JERUSALEM. By R. Friedland and R. Hecht. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1996. 554pp.

IRANIAN INTELLECTUALS AND THE WEST: THE TORMENTED TRIUMPH OF NATIVISM. By Mehrzad Boroujerdi. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press, 1996. 256 pp., incl appendix, glossary, bibliography and index.

DISCOVERING THE QUR'AN: A CONTEMPORARY APPROACH TO A VEILED TEXT. By Neal Robinson. London: SCM Press, 1996. 332pp., £16.95 (pb).

THE BOOK IN THE ISLAMIC WORLD: THE WRITTEN WORD AND COMMUNICATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Edited by George N. Atiyeh. Albany State University of New York Press, 1995. xviii 305pp.

RIVERS OF DISCORD: INTERNATIONAL WATER DISPUTES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By Greg Shapland. London, Hurst & Company, 1997. 183 pp. 6 maps 5 tables, (hb) £37.50.

MOSHE SHARETT: BIOGRAPHY OF A POLITICAL MODERATE. By Gabriel Sheffer. New York, Oxford University Press, 1996. 1065 pp. £65.

CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE MIDDLE EAST (Volumes 1 and 2). Edited by Augustus Richard Norton. Leiden: E.J. Brill 1995–1996 Vol lx + 328pp, Vol 2 xvi + 353pp     

The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models

We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high‐probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low‐probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Percent Correctly Predicted statistics, Brier scores, and the ROC plot, our “separation plot” has the advantage of producing a visual display that is informative and easy to explain to a general audience, while also remaining insensitive to the often arbitrary probability thresholds that are used to distinguish between predicted events and nonevents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique in building predictive models in a number of different areas of political research.     

Personality and Job Satisfaction: Evidence from a Sample of Street-Level Bureaucrats

Job satisfaction is an important component of bureaucratic success. In this article, we build on the emerging literature on the five-factor model of personality and argue that basic personality characteristics can help us understand why certain employees are more satisfied with their jobs than others. Multivariate analysis of personality and job satisfaction data from over 1,000 public servants supports this argument. We conclude with a discussion about how personality can add to our theoretical understanding of public personnel management, and help public managers identify applicants who are likely to be satisfied with work in the public sector.     

Traditional and Non-Traditional Security Challenges:Areas of Potential U.S.-Sino Cooperation

＂The relationship between the United States and China will shape the 21st century, which makes it as important as any bilateral relationship in the world.＂     

Policing prostitution in an era of human trafficking enforcement

Prostitution and commercialized vice have been variously prioritized as urban crime problems across U.S. history. In response, lawmakers have historically been guided by a prohibititionst view where people selling, buying or facilitating the sale of sex are considered to be immoral and criminal. In recent years, public concern about the trafficking of persons for sex has reframed prostitution and the expectations of government response. The U.S. federal government and all fifty states have passed legislation that is guided by an abolitionist view of prostitution where people who are forced or coerced to sell sex are redefined as victims. State, county and municipal police officers are now receiving training on how to identify human trafficking cases and investigators are being trained to investigate and prepare cases for prosecution. Despite these efforts under the new legal regime, confusion exists about how sex trafficking differs from prostitution and correspondingly necessitates different types of law enforcement responses. Adding to this complication is the fact that in many major cities the responsibility for identifying and eradicating human trafficking has fallen to the same group of investigators who are responsible for enforcing vice and prostitution laws. As a result, prostitution enforcement is expected to change as police increasingly focus on identifying sex trafficking victims. Using data on police arrests for prostitution from 1980 to 2012, we examine the impact of federal and state anti-trafficking legislation on the local enforcement of prostitution. Our findings inform debate about legal reform as a response to urban crime problems and illustrate the complexities of policy implementation and interpretation.     

Protection motivation theory as a theoretical framework for understanding the use of protective measures

The use of defensive measures can be a double-edged sword: it can provide the means to protect people and property from potential criminal victimization, but can also be a costly and possibly unnecessary endeavor. However, research examining the factors contributing to the decision whether or not to engage in protective measures is often limited in both quantity and scope. In this article, we propose a theoretical framework for understanding the use of protective measures in response to criminal victimization threats based on Ronald Rogers’ protection motivation theory. Our discussion details Rogers’ theory, suggests variables and measures appropriate for the context of criminal victimization and protective responses, and provides guidance on testing and model adaptation issues. We hope that this will encourage further model development and testing to improve the understanding of individual protective behavior in response to crime or the threat of crime.